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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

PM 2.5 Is Insufficient to Explain Personal PAH Exposure

To understand how chemical exposure can impact health, researchers need tools that capture the complexities of personal chemical exposure. In practice, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) air quality index (AQI) data from outdoor stationary monitors and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke density data from satellites are often used as proxies for personal chemical exposure, but do not capture total chemical exposure. Silicone wristbands can quantify more individualized exposure data than stationary air monitors or smoke satellites. However, it is not understood how these proxy measurements compare to chemical data measured from wristbands. In this study, participants wore daily wristbands, carried a phone that recorded locations, and answered daily questionnaires for a 7-day period in multiple seasons. We gathered publicly available daily PM 2.5 AQI data and HMS data. We analyzed wristbands for 94 organic chemicals, including 53 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Wristband chemical detections and concentrations, behavioral variables (e.g., time spent indoors), and environmental conditions (e.g., PM 2.5 AQI) significantly differed between seasons. Machine learning models were fit to predict personal chemical exposure using PM 2.5 AQI only, HMS only, and a multivariate feature set including PM 2.5 AQI, HMS, and other environmental and behavioral information. On average, the multivariate models increased predictive accuracy by approximately 70% compared to either the AQI model or the HMS model for all chemicals modeled. This study provides evidence that PM 2.5 AQI data alone or HMS data alone is insufficient to explain personal chemical exposures. Our results identify additional key predictors of personal chemical exposure.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast Seismic Anomalies Under Continents Explained by the Delaminated Lower Continental Crust—Implications From High Pressure‐Temperature Elasticity of Jadeite

Seismic tomography has shown that the shear wave velocities (Vs) under continents, especially under cratons, are extremely fast at 100–200 km depth, which is difficult to explain by low temperatures or high Mg#. Alternatively, delaminated eclogitic lower continental crust has been proposed to account for these fast seismic anomalies. However, the thermoelastic properties of jadeite which constitutes up to 60–80 mol% of clinopyroxene in the potentially delaminated lower continental crust are not well constrained. In this study, we measured the single-crystal elasticity of jadeite by Brillouin spectroscopy under simultaneous high pressure and temperature conditions for the first time. We found that the temperature dependence of Vs of jadeite is extremely small if not negligible. The seismic velocities of the potentially delaminated lower continental crusts were subsequently modeled and found to match the widely observed fast seismic anomalies under cratons between 100 and 200 km depth.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Explaining the dynamics of the ultra-relativistic third Van Allen radiation belt

Since the discovery of the Van Allen radiation belts over 50 years ago, an explanation for their complete dynamics has remained elusive. Especially challenging is understanding the recently discovered ultra-relativistic third electron radiation belt. Current theory asserts that loss in the heart of the outer belt, essential to the formation of the third belt, must be controlled by high-frequency plasma wave–particle scattering into the atmosphere, via whistler mode chorus, plasmaspheric hiss, or electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. However, this has failed to accurately reproduce the third belt. In this paper, using a data-driven, time-dependent specification of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves we show for the first time how the third radiation belt is established as a simple, elegant consequence of storm-time extremely fast outward ULF wave transport. High-frequency wave–particle scattering loss into the atmosphere is not needed in this case. Finally, when rapid ULF wave transport coupled to a dynamic boundary is accurately specified, the sensitive dynamics controlling the enigmatic ultra-relativistic third radiation belt are naturally explained.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photolytic activation of Ni (II) X 2 L explains how Ni-mediated cross coupling begins

Nickel photocatalysis has recently become vital to organic synthesis, but how the Ni (II) X 2 L pre-catalyst (X = Cl, Br; L = bidentate ligand) becomes activated to Ni (I) XL has remained puzzling and is typically addressed on a case-by-case basis. Here, we reveal a general mechanism where light induces photolysis of the Ni (II) -X bond, either via direct excitation or triplet energy transfer. Photolysis produces Ni (I) XL and a halogen radical, X*. Subsequent hydrogen atom abstraction, often from the solvent, produces a C(sp 3 ) radical, R*, that recombines with Ni (I) to form organonickel(II) complexes, Ni (II) XRL. Rather than acting as a loss pathway, Ni (II) XRL behaves as a light-activated reservoir of Ni (I) via photolysis of the Ni (II) -C bond. These results explain the role of the solvent in protecting the catalyst from off-cycle dimerization, demonstrate that two photons are often required to drive the reaction, and show how tuning the ligand can control the concentration of active Ni (I) species.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extracting structural motifs from pair distribution function data of nanostructures using explainable machine learning

Characterization of material structure with X-ray or neutron scattering using e.g. Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis most often rely on refining a structure model against an experimental dataset. However, identifying a suitable model is often a bottleneck. Recently, automated approaches have made it possible to test thousands of models for each dataset, but these methods are computationally expensive and analysing the output, i.e. extracting structural information from the resulting fits in a meaningful way, is challenging. Our Machine Learning based Motif Extractor (ML-MotEx) trains an ML algorithm on thousands of fits, and uses SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values to identify which model features are important for the fit quality. We use the method for 4 different chemical systems, including disordered nanomaterials and clusters. ML-MotEx opens for a type of modelling where each feature in a model is assigned an importance value for the fit quality based on explainable ML.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep material network via a quilting strategy: visualization for explainability and recursive training for improved accuracy

Recent developments integrating micromechanics and neural networks offer promising paths for rapid predictions of the response of heterogeneous materials with similar accuracy as direct numerical simulations. The deep material network is one such approaches, featuring a multi-layer network and micromechanics building blocks trained on anisotropic linear elastic properties. Once trained, the network acts as a reduced-order model, which can extrapolate the material’s behavior to more general constitutive laws, including nonlinear behaviors, without the need to be retrained. However, current training methods initialize network parameters randomly, incurring inevitable training and calibration errors. Here, we introduce a way to visualize the network parameters as an analogous unit cell and use this visualization to “quilt” patches of shallower networks to initialize deeper networks for a recursive training strategy. The result is an improvement in the accuracy and calibration performance of the network and an intuitive visual representation of the network for better explainability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Root traits explain plant species distributions along climatic gradients yet challenge the nature of ecological trade-offs

Ecological theory is built on trade-offs, where trait differences among species evolved as adaptations to different environments. Trade-offs are often assumed to be bidirectional, where opposite ends of a gradient in trait values confer advantages in different environments. However, unidirectional benefits could be widespread if extreme trait values confer advantages at one end of an environmental gradient, whereas a wide range of trait values are equally beneficial at the other end. Here, we show that root traits explain species occurrences along broad gradients of temperature and water availability, but model predictions only resembled trade-offs in two out of 24 models. Forest species with low specific root length and high root tissue density (RTD) were more likely to occur in warm climates but species with high specific root length and low RTD were more likely to occur in cold climates. Unidirectional benefits were more prevalent than trade-offs: for example, species with large-diameter roots and high RTD were more commonly associated with dry climates, but species with the opposite trait values were not associated with wet climates. Directional selection for traits consistently occurred in cold or dry climates, whereas a diversity of root trait values were equally viable in warm or wet climates. Explicit integration of unidirectional benefits into ecological theory is needed to advance our understanding of the consequences of trait variation on species responses to environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Microbial models with minimal mineral protection can explain long-term soil organic carbon persistence

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models currently in widespread use omit known microbial processes, and assume the existence of a SOC pool whose intrinsic properties confer persistence for centuries to millennia, despite evidence from priming and aggregate turnover that cast doubt on the existence of SOC with profound intrinsic stability. Here we show that by including microbial interactions in a SOC model, persistence can be explained as a feedback between substrate availability, mineral protection and microbial population size, without invoking an unproven pool that is intrinsically stable for centuries. The microbial SOC model based on this concept reproduces long-term data (r 2 = 0.92; n = 90), global SOC distribution (rmse = 4.7 +/– 0.6 kg C m –2 ), and total global SOC in the top 0.3 m (822 Pg C) accurately. SOC dynamics based on a microbial feedback without stable pools are thus consistent with global SOC distribution. This has important implications for carbon management, suggesting that relatively fast cycling, rather than recalcitrant, SOC must form the primary target of efforts to build SOC stocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil properties explain tree growth and mortality, but not biomass, across phosphorus-depleted tropical forests

We observed strong positive relationships between soil properties and forest dynamics of growth and mortality across twelve primary lowland tropical forests in a phosphorus-poor region of the Guiana Shield. Average tree growth (diameter at breast height) increased from 0.81 to 2.1 mm yr -1 along a soil texture gradient from 0 to 67% clay, and increasing metal-oxide content. Soil organic carbon stocks in the top 30cm ranged from 30 to 118 tons C ha -1 , phosphorus content ranged from 7 to 600 mg kg -1 soil, and the relative abundance of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi ranged from 0 to 50%, all positively correlating with soil clay, and iron and aluminum oxide and hydroxide content. In contrast, already low extractable phosphorus (Bray P) content decreased from 4.4 to <0.0 mg kg -1 in soil with increasing clay content. A greater prevalence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in more clayey forests that had higher tree growth and mortality, but not biomass, indicates that despite the greater investment in nutrient uptake required, soils with higher clay content may actually serve to sustain high tree growth in tropical forests by avoiding phosphorus losses from the ecosystem. Our study demonstrates how variation in soil properties that retain carbon and nutrients can help to explain variation in tropical forest growth and mortality, but not biomass, by requiring niche specialization and contributing to biogeochemical diversification across this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A simple model of COVID-19 explains disease severity and the effect of treatments

Abstract Considerable effort has been made to better understand why some people suffer from severe COVID-19 while others remain asymptomatic. This has led to important clinical findings; people with severe COVID-19 generally experience persistently high levels of inflammation, slower viral load decay, display a dysregulated type-I interferon response, have less active natural killer cells and increased levels of neutrophil extracellular traps. How these findings are connected to the pathogenesis of COVID-19 remains unclear. We propose a mathematical model that sheds light on this issue by focusing on cells that trigger inflammation through molecular patterns: infected cells carrying pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) and damaged cells producing damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs). The former signals the presence of pathogens while the latter signals danger such as hypoxia or lack of nutrients. Analyses show that SARS-CoV-2 infections can lead to a self-perpetuating feedback loop between DAMP expressing cells and inflammation, identifying the inability to quickly clear PAMPs and DAMPs as the main contributor to hyperinflammation. The model explains clinical findings and reveal conditions that can increase the likelihood of desired clinical outcome from treatment administration. In particular, the analysis suggest that antivirals need to be administered early during infection to have an impact on disease severity. The simplicity of the model and its high level of consistency with clinical findings motivate its use for the formulation of new treatment strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in sea ice concentration explain half of the winter warming of the Arctic surface

Arctic winter warming is stronger than in summer, but its driving mechanisms remain debated, particularly the roles of local processes, like sea-ice loss, versus remote factors, like atmospheric heat transport. Here we introduce a novel decomposition framework that characterizes Arctic warming as a function of historical atmospheric circulation, sea ice concentration, and carbon dioxide changes using observational and reanalysis data. We show that sea ice changes explain about 55% of the winter Arctic near-surface temperature trend during 1959–2015, after removing the effects directly connected to atmospheric circulation. Dynamically induced warming accounts for about 20% at surface and up to 80% in mid-troposphere. The remaining ~25% is attributed to the increase in carbon dioxide, though it also indirectly affects sea-ice loss and circulation-related warming. These findings highlight the dominant role of sea ice loss and change in atmospheric dynamics in affecting the historical Arctic winter warming.

Arctic Sea Ice change↗
DOE OSTI2015

Vibronic coupling explains the ultrafast carotenoid-to-bacteriochlorophyll energy transfer in natural and artificial light harvesters

The initial energy transfer steps in photosynthesis occur on ultrafast timescales. We analyze the carotenoid to bacteriochlorophyll energy transfer in LH2 Marichromatium purpuratum as well as in an artificial light-harvesting dyad system by using transient grating and two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy with 10 fs time resolution. We find that Förster-type models reproduce the experimentally observed 60 fs transfer times, but overestimate coupling constants, which lead to a disagreement with both linear absorption and electronic 2D-spectra. We show that a vibronic model, which treats carotenoid vibrations on both electronic ground and excited states as part of the system’s Hamiltonian, reproduces all measured quantities. Importantly, the vibronic model presented here can explain the fast energy transfer rates with only moderate coupling constants, which are in agreement with structure based calculations. Counterintuitively, the vibrational levels on the carotenoid electronic ground state play the central role in the excited state population transfer to bacteriochlorophyll; resonance between the donor-acceptor energy gap and the vibrational ground state energies is the physical basis of the ultrafast energy transfer rates in these systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Communication: Cosolvency and cononsolvency explained in terms of a Flory-Huggins type theory

Standard Flory-Huggins (FH) theory is utilized to describe the enigmatic cosolvency and cononsolvency phenomena for systems of polymers dissolved in mixed solvents. In particular, phase boundaries (specifically upper critical solution temperature spinodals) are calculated for solutions of homopolymers B in pure solvents and in binary mixtures of small molecule liquids A and C. The miscibility (or immiscibility) patterns for the ternary systems are classified in terms of the FH binary interaction parameters (χ{sub αβ}) and the ratio r = ϕ{sub A}/ϕ{sub C} of the concentrations ϕ{sub A} and ϕ{sub C} of the two solvents. The trends in miscibility are compared to those observed for blends of random copolymers (A{sub x}C{sub 1−x}) with homopolymers (B) and to those deduced for A/B/C solutions of polymers B in liquid mixtures of small molecules A and C that associate into polymeric clusters (A{sub p}C{sub q}){sub i}, (i = 1, 2, …, ∞). Although the classic FH theory is able to explain cosolvency and cononsolvency phenomena, the theory does not include a consideration of the mutual association of the solvent molecules and the competitive association between the solvent molecules and the polymer. These interactions can be incorporated in refinements of the FH theory, and the present paper provides a foundation for such extensions for modeling the rich thermodynamics of polymers in mixed solvents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explaining the structure sensitivity of Pt and Rh for aqueous-phase hydrogenation of phenol

Phenol is an important model compound to understand the thermocatalytic (TCH) and electrocatalytic hydrogenation (ECH) of biomass to biofuels. Although Pt and Rh are among the most studied catalysts for aqueous-phase phenol hydrogenation, the reason why certain facets are active for ECH and TCH is not fully understood. Herein, we identify the active facet of Pt and Rh catalysts for aqueous-phase hydrogenation of phenol and explain the origin of the size-dependent activity trends of Pt and Rh nanoparticles. Phenol adsorption energies extracted on the active sites of Pt and Rh nanoparticles on carbon by fitting kinetic data show that the active sites adsorb phenol weakly. We predict that the turnover frequencies (TOFs) for the hydrogenation of phenol to cyclohexanone on Pt(111) and Rh(111) terraces are higher than those on (221) stepped facets based on density functional theory modeling and mean-field microkinetic simulations. The higher activities of the (111) terraces are due to lower activation energies and weaker phenol adsorption, preventing high coverages of phenol from inhibiting hydrogen adsorption. We measure that the TOF for ECH of phenol increases as the Rh nanoparticle diameter increases from 2 to 10 nm at 298 K and -0.1 V vs the reversible hydrogen electrode, qualitatively matching prior reports for Pt nanoparticles. The increase in experimental TOFs as Pt and Rh nanoparticle diameters increase is due to a larger fraction of terraces on larger particles. These findings clarify the structure sensitivity and active site of Pt and Rh for the hydrogenation of phenol and will inform the catalyst design for the hydrogenation of bio-oils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Attention-based explainability for structure–property relationships

Machine learning methods are emerging as a universal paradigm for constructing correlative structure–property relationships in materials science based on multimodal characterization. However, this necessitates the development of methods for the physical interpretability of the resulting correlative models. Here, we demonstrate the potential of attention-based neural networks for revealing structure–property relationships and the underlying physical mechanisms, using the ferroelectric properties of PbTiO3 thin films as a case study. Through the analysis of attention scores, we disentangle the influence of distinct domain patterns on the polarization switching process. The attention-based Transformer model is explored both as a direct interpretability tool and as a surrogate for explaining representations learned via unsupervised machine learning, enabling the identification of physically grounded correlations. We compare attention-derived interpretability scores with classical SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis and show that, in contrast to applications in natural language processing, attention mechanisms in materials science exhibit high efficiency in highlighting meaningful structural features.

Slautin, Boris [Independent Researcher]↗