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At least 145 records · Page 8

Heat Load Sharing in a Loop Heat Pipe with Multiple Evaporators and Multiple Condensers

This paper describes the heat load sharing function among multiple parallel evaporators in a loop heat pipe (LHP). Each evaporator can be attached to an instrument. In the normal mode of operation, each evaporator will cool the corresponding instrument by absorbing the waste heat. When an instrument is turned off, the attached evaporator can keep it warm by receiving heat from other evaporators serving the operating instruments. This is referred to as heat load sharing. The fact that the wicks in the powered evaporators will develop capillary pressure to force the vapor that is being generated to flow to cold locations where the pressure is lower leads to the conclusion that heat load sharing is an inherent function of an LHP with multiple evaporators. This paper presents a theoretical basis of the LHP heat load sharing operation, and experimental results from ground tests of an LHP with two evaporator and two condensers. Factors that affect the amount of heat being shared are also discussed.

Ku, Jentung↗

The Safe Removal of Frozen Air from the Annulus of an LH2 Storage Tank

Large Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) storage tanks are vital infrastructure for NASA. Eventually, air may leak into the evacuated and perlite filled annular region of these tanks. Although the vacuum level is monitored in this region, the extremely cold temperature causes all but the helium and neon constituents of air to freeze. A small, often unnoticeable pressure rise is the result. As the leak persists, the quantity of frozen air increases, as does the thermal conductivity of the insulation system. Consequently, a notable increase in commodity boil-off is often the first indicator of an air leak. Severe damage can result from normal draining of the tank. The warming air will sublimate which will cause a pressure rise in the annulus. When the pressure increases above the triple point, the frozen air will begin to melt and migrate downward. Collection of liquid air on the carbon steel outer shell may chill it below its ductility range, resulting in fracture. In order to avoid a structural failure, as described above, a method for the safe removal of frozen air is needed. A thermal model of the storage tank has been created using SINDA/FLUINT modeling software. Experimental work is progressing in an attempt to characterize the thermal conductivity of a perlite/frozen nitrogen mixture. A statistical mechanics model is being developed in parallel for comparison to experimental work. The thermal model will be updated using the experimental/statistical mechanical data, and used to simulate potential removal scenarios. This paper will address methodologies and analysis techniques for evaluation of two proposed air removal methods.

cryogenic insulation↗

Heat Load Sharing in a Capillary Pumped Loop with Multiple Evaporators and Multiple Condensers

This paper describes the heat load sharing function among multiple parallel evaporators in a capillary pumped loop (CPL). In the normal mode of operation, the evaporators cool the instruments by absorbing the waste heat. When an instruments is turned off, the attached evaporator can keep it warm by receiving heat from other evaporators serving the operating instruments. This is referred to as heat load sharing. A theoretical basis of heat load sharing is given first. The fact that the wicks in the powered evaporators will develop capillary pressure to force the generated vapor to flow to cold locations where the pressure is lower leads to the conclusion that heat load sharing is an inherent function of a CPL with multiple evaporators. Heat load sharing has been verified with many CPLs in ground tests. Experimental results of the Capillary Pumped Loop 3 (CAPL 3) Flight Experiment are presented in this paper. Factors that affect the amount of heat being shared are discussed. Some constraints of heat load sharing are also addressed.

Ku, Jentung↗

Viscous pour point of microquantities of fluid lubricants

A method is described involving the measurement of the viscous desolidification (pour) point of wax-free lubricant fluids. This method is especially useful for pour point testing of experimental quantities, since only six to sixteen drops of the oil are required for a single determination (automatically performed in duplicate) with nearly full recovery of the sample. The technique consists of: (1) rapidly freezing a small, predetermined amount of the oil on the side of a small test tube to form a frozen drop of given dimensions; (2) immersing duplicates of the charged and stoppered tubes into a cold bath; and (3) measuring the temperature when the drop front has moved a predetermined distance as the bath warms up.

Gardos, M. N.↗

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Ice Crystal Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for the development of icing physics models and simulation validation. This paper presents the analysis of the ice crystal icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled liquid and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a weighing scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized icing conditions. To that end, ice crystal cloud characterization tests were conducted that provided cloud property values at the test section. The ice crystal accretion tests investigated how different test condition parameters impacted ice accretion size, location, and characteristics (such as physical attributes). A key finding was that a sufficiently high surface heat flux at the leading edge can provide a continuous supply of liquid melt to critical accretion zones downstream, resulting in elevated ice mass accretions. Another key finding was that warmer heater settings in critical accretion zones can suppress ice accretion. These findings are consistent with icing behavior observed in full-scale engine icing tests conducted previously at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Test runs investigating the contribution of liquid melt generated at the leading edge found that the melt can be transported downstream to critical accretion regions in two forms, via runback and splash. The form of melt supplied downstream affected accretion behavior and features. Sharkteeth-shaped ice accretions were generated at certain test conditions, a physical attribute that has been observed in full-scale engine icing tests. The ice accretion data will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

ice crystal icing↗

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Ice Crystal Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for the development of icing physics models and simulation validation. This paper presents the analysis of the ice crystal icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled liquid and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a weighing scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized icing conditions. To that end, ice crystal cloud characterization tests were conducted that provided cloud property values at the test section. The ice crystal accretion tests investigated how different test condition parameters impacted ice accretion size, location, and characteristics (such as physical attributes). A key finding was that a sufficiently high surface heat flux at the leading edge can provide a continuous supply of liquid melt to critical accretion zones downstream, resulting in elevated ice mass accretions. Another key finding was that warmer heater settings in critical accretion zones can suppress ice accretion. These findings are consistent with icing behavior observed in full-scale engine icing tests conducted previously at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Test runs investigating the contribution of liquid melt generated at the leading edge found that the melt can be transported downstream to critical accretion regions in two forms, via runback and splash. The form of melt supplied downstream affected accretion behavior and features. Sharkteeth-shaped ice accretions were generated at certain test conditions, a physical attribute that has been observed in full-scale engine icing tests. The ice accretion data will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

ice crystal icing↗

The Dynamics of Ionospheric D Region over East Siberia

Some main results of experimental investigations of the dynamical regime of the ionospheric D-region over East Siberia are presented. Regular measurements of horizontal ionospheric drifts by the radio method of closely spaced receivers, using a long wavelength transmitter operating at a frequency of 200 kHz, were carried out near Irkutsk, USSR, since 1975. The seasonal and inter-annual variations of prevailing wind (zonal and meridional), and amplitudes and phases of semi-diurnal tides are investigated. Evidence is presented to show the response of D-region dynamics to stratospheric warmings. Planetary and gravity waves are found in the wind field. Comparison with results of analogous measurements in Central Europe (Collm, GDR) reveals a longitudinal effect on the dynamical regime of the mid-latitude lower thermosphere.

Kazimirovsky, E. S.↗

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper presents the analysis of the supercooled liquid icing data subset from tests conducted in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel that studied both supercooled water and ice-crystal icing. The test article that was utilized replicated 3D geometrical features of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic testing and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location (icing extent), characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗

Projectile-target mixing in melted ejecta formed during a hypervelocity impact cratering event

Tektites contain little to no projectile contamination while, in contrast, some distal ejecta deposits can be relatively projectile-rich (e.g. the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary clay). This compositional difference motivated an experimental study of hypervelocity target-projectile mixing processes. We hope to scale up the results from these experiments and apply them to terrestrial impact structures like the Chicxulub Crater, Yucutan, Mexico, the leading contender as the site for the impact that caused the mass extinction that marks the K-T boundary. Shock decomposition of the approximately 500m thickness of anhydrite, or greater thickness of limestone, in the target rocks at Chicxulub may have been a critical mechanism for either global cooling via SO3, and subsequently H2SO4, formation, or possibly, global warming via increased CO2 formation. Understanding target-projectile mixing processes during hypervelocity impact may permit more accurate estimates of the amount of potentially toxic, target-derived material reaching stratospheric heights.

Evans, Noreen Joyce↗

Icing Physics Studies Using the 3D SIDRM Test Article: Aerodynamic and Supercooled Liquid Icing Analysis

In-flight icing is an important safety issue and is a factor that affects aircraft design and performance. Newer regulations are driving a need for improvements in airframe and engine icing simulation capability. Experimental data is required for development of icing physics models and simulation validation. To that end, this paper discusses analyzed data from icing tests conducted with a 3D test article in 2022 at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel. The test article, whose geometry is representative of an inter-compressor duct and strut region of a turbofan engine, has been designed and constructed to study the physics of supercooled water icing and ice crystal icing. The surfaces of the Simulated Inter-compressor Duct Research Model (SIDRM) can be heated to simulate the warm surfaces of the turbofan inter-compressor duct. The test article is instrumented with pressure taps, heaters, heat flux gauges, and thermocouples, while a 3D laser scanner, cameras, and a scale to measure ice mass were utilized to characterize the icing behavior. The aim of these tests was to generate ice accretions on the SIDRM test article under well-characterized supercooled liquid icing and ice crystal icing conditions. This paper discusses measurements related to aerodynamic tests and supercooled liquid icing tests that were conducted. Aerodynamic measurements were analyzed and compared to computational simulations and were found to be in good agreement for the range of airspeeds (50 to 230 knots) and angles of attack (0 to 4°) tested. Various parametric sweeps were conducted during the supercooled liquid icing portion of the test entry (cloud median volumetric diameter ranged from 15 to 90 µm, total air temperature from -3 to -17 °C, angle of attack from 0 to 4°, and accretion time from 5 to 20 min). These sweeps were performed to measure that parameter’s impact on ice accretion size, location, characteristics (such as glaze/rime ice and shedding behavior), and test article surface temperature. Analysis of the test data showed that clouds composed of larger drops, colder air temperatures, smaller angles of attack, and longer spray times were the primary parameters that resulted in accretions with greater ice mass. Test article angle of attack and cloud droplet size influenced the location of ice accretion as these two parameters directly impact collection efficiency. With respect to icing characteristics, total air temperature dictated icing type, and smaller cloud drop size along with warmer air temperatures resulted in greater amounts of ice shedding. Surface temperature increased during ice accretion from the release of latent (fusion) heat, where total air temperature and cloud drop size impacted the amount of surface temperature change. The icing measurements collected during the SIDRM tests will be used to develop and validate 3D computational engine icing tools, such as GlennICE, that predictively assesses the onset and growth of ice. One of the goals of the sponsoring NASA project is to develop simulation models and tools that can assist in the design and certification of engines for flight in icing conditions in a cost‑effective way.

supercooled liquid icing↗

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true for areas with lower GVF in the SPoRT model runs. These differences in the heating and evaporation rates produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for the selected severe weather case examined.

Bell, Jordan R.↗

Numerical Prediction of Heat Transfer Coefficients during Xenon Tank Fill in Microgravity

NASA’s Gateway will serve as an orbital outpost to enable sustained human lunar exploration and facilitate access to destinations beyond the Moon. To maintain sustainable deep space missions, on-orbit propellant transfer and refueling must be realized. One of Gateway’s critical components, the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE), will use solar electric propulsion to perform attitude control maneuvers and orbit transfers. Xenon will be used as the propellant for the PPE and stored in a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV). During the propellant refueling process, xenon will compress causing the fluid and tank walls to warm. There is concern that the bond between the tank liner and composite may degrade at elevated temperatures, along with the possibility of the tank exceeding design pressure. While on-orbit testing is being proposed, numerical models are being used to predict the thermal response and reduce risk during a refueling operation in microgravity where natural convection is diminished. Accurate numerical models may be used to inform decisions for follow-on testing, or design and operation of refueling architectures. Challenges of modeling xenon tank fill in microgravity include non-ideal gas behavior, operating near the fluid’s critical point, and lack of experimental flight data. This study presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model with conjugate heat transfer that is used to predict averaged heat transfer coefficients during tank filling. At the anticipated injection flow rates, the CFD results showed that forced convection dominates in microgravity. Initial results from a multi-node Thermal Desktop model that assumed a purely conducting fluid (Nu=1) over-predicted the CFD fluid temperature and pressure, while a similar model allowing for natural convection under-predicted. The heat transfer coefficients predicted by CFD were implemented into the multi-node model, and the COPV thermal response from the two computational approaches were compared with good agreement.

Heat Transfer↗

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗

Modeling Self-Pressurization and Spray Bar Pressure Control of a Cryogenic Storage Tank in Normal Gravity

This paper presents Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models for simulating self-pressurization and spray bar cooling processes in a large-scale liquid hydrogen storage tank under normal gravity. The self-pressurization model utilizes the kinetics-based Schrage equation with the Volume-Of-Fluid (VOF) model to account for the evaporative and condensing interfacial mass fluxes. It uses a laminar approach to model natural convection and compares the pressures and temperatures predicted by the CFD model with experimental data from the Multipurpose Hydrogen Test Bed (MHTB) self-pressurization experiment. Additionally, the predicted interfacial mass flux is presented. A CFD model for simulating pressure control using a spray bar is also presented. An Eulerian-Lagrangian approach models the interactions between the discrete droplets and the continuous ullage phase. The spray model is coupled with the VOF model by tracking particles in the ullage, removing particles from the ullage when they reach the interface, and then adding their contributions to the liquid. The T-sat model is used to calculate the droplet-ullage heat and mass transfer. In this model, droplets warm up to the saturation temperature corresponding to the ullage vapor pressure thereafter evaporating while remaining at the saturation temperature. The tank pressure, vapor, and liquid temperature evolutions are validated against data from the MHTB spray bar mixing experiment.

Self-Pressurization↗

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

Fog dispersion

A study of economically viable techniques for dispersing warm fog at commercial airports is presented. Five fog dispersion techniques are examined: evaporation suppression, downwash, mixing, seeding with hygroscopic material, thermal techniques, and charged particle techniques. Thermal techniques, although effective, were found to be too expensive for routine airport operations, and detrimental to the environment. Seeding or helicopter downwash are practical for small-scale or temporary fog clearing, but are probably not useful for airport operations on a routine basis. Considerable disagreement exists on the capability of charged particle techniques, which stems from the fact that different assumptions and parameter values are used in the analytical models. Recommendations resulting from the review of this technique are listed, and include: experimental measurements of the parameters in question; a study to ascertain possible safety hazards, such as increased electrical activity or fuel ignition during refueling operations which could render charged particle techniques impractical; and a study of a single charged particle generator.

Frost, W.↗

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Decadal Prediction↗

Microgravity Experiments and Numerical Modeling of Rotating Buoyant Convection in a Spherical Shell with Latitudinal Thermal Gradients

The results of numerical model calculations are compared with space laboratory experiments for rotating, thermally driven flow in a hemispherical shell, and various flow regimes are described. A spherically symmetric body force, analogous to gravity, is imposed in the radial direction through the use of a dielectric fluid and an electrostatic potential difference across the gap. The spherical boundaries are maintained at constant temperature profiles (with the pole and the inner sphere being the warmer surfaces), and the equatorial wall is an insulator. Typical parameter combinations result in highly nonlinear, but laminar, flow. For weak enough buoyant forcing, the flow is axisymmetric. It consists of a single meridional cell, rising in warm latitudes (in this case, near the pole) and sinking in cool latitudes, with prograde flow in the equatorial region and near the inner hemisphere for other latitudes, and retrograde motion elsewhere. For fast rotation, the first transition due to the instability of this simple flow is also axisymmetric, consisting of rings of convection in the polar region, which propagate poleward. The first nonaxisymmetric convection occurs at Rayleigh numbers which increase with rotation rate. The form of the convection near the transition also depends upon the rate of rotation. Selected flow patterns near the transition as well as those beyond it are studied numerically. For those cases where there exist laboratory experiments with which to compare, the numerical and experimental results agree very well.

Leslie, Fred W.↗