Large-Scale Influences on Atmospheric River Induced Extreme Precipitation Events Along the Coast of Washington State
Transient, narrow plumes of strong water vapor transport, referred to as AtmosphericRivers (ARs), are responsible for much of the precipitation along the west coast of the UnitedStates. The most intense precipitation events are almost always induced by an AR on the coast ofOregon and Washington and can result in detrimental impacts on society due to mudslides andflooding. In order to accurately predict AR events on numerical weather prediction, subseasonal,and seasonal timescales, it is important to understand the large-scale impacts on extreme ARevents. Here, characteristics of ARs that result in an extreme precipitation event are compared totypical ARs on the coast of Washington State. In addition to more intense water vapor transport,notable differences in the synoptic forcing are present during extreme precipitation events thatare not present during typical AR events. Subseasonal and seasonal teleconnection patterns areknown to influence the weather in the Pacific Northwest and are investigated here. The MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) plays a role in determining the strength of precipitation associated withan AR on the Washington Coast. Phase 5 of the MJO (convection centered over the maritimecontinent) is the most common phase during an extreme precipitation event, while phase 2(convection over the Indian Ocean) discourages an extreme event from occurring. Interactionsbetween El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the propagation speed of the MJO result inextreme events during phase 1 of the MJO and El Niño but phase 8 during neutral ESNOconditions.