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Results for “error propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Frequency-domain hot-wire sensor and 3D model for thermal conductivity measurements of reactive and corrosive materials at high temperatures

High temperature solids and liquids are becoming increasingly important in next-generation energy and manufacturing systems that seek higher efficiencies and lower emissions. Accurate measurements of thermal conductivity at high temperatures are required for the modeling and design of these systems, but commonly employed time-domain measurements can have errors from convection, corrosion, and ambient temperature fluctuations. Here, we describe the development of a frequency-domain hot-wire technique capable of accurately measuring the thermal conductivity of solid and molten compounds from room temperature up to 800 °C. Therefore, by operating in the frequency-domain, we can lock into the harmonic thermal response of the material and reject the influence of ambient temperature fluctuations, and we can keep the probed volume below 1 µl to minimize convection. The design of the microfabricated hot-wire sensor, electrical systems, and insulating wire coating to protect against corrosion is covered in detail. Furthermore, we discuss the development of a full three-dimensional multilayer thermal model that accounts for both radial conduction into the sample and axial conduction along the wire and the effect of wire coatings. The 3D, multilayer model facilitates the measurement of small sample volumes important for material development. A sensitivity analysis and an error propagation calculation of the frequency-domain thermal model are performed to demonstrate what factors are most important for thermal conductivity measurements. Finally, we show thermal conductivity measurements including model data fitting on gas (argon), solid (sulfur), and molten substances over a range of temperatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of areal density asymmetries on scattered neutron spectra in ICF implosions

Scattered neutron spectroscopy is a diagnostic technique commonly used to measure areal density in inertial confinement fusion experiments. Deleterious areal density asymmetries modify the shape of the scattered neutron spectrum. In this work, a novel analysis is developed, which can be used to fit the shape change. This will allow experimental scattered neutron spectroscopy to directly infer the amplitude and mode of the areal density asymmetries, with little sensitivity to confounding factors that affect other diagnostics for areal density. The model is tested on spectra produced by a neutron transport calculation with both isotropic and anisotropic primary fusion neutron sources. Multiple lines of sight are required to infer the areal density distribution over the whole sphere—we investigate the error propagation and optimal detector arrangement associated with the inference of mode 1 asymmetries.

Crilly, A. J. (ORCID:0000000204299332)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust two-colour pyrometry uncertainty analysis to acquire spatially-resolved measurements

Two-colour pyrometry (2CP) has been used over several decades to study engine-relevant combustion processes, but results are generally regarded as qualitative or semi-quantitative. In many current 2CP systems, large measurement errors are introduced by parallax because the two measured wavelengths are not from the same line of sight. Here this work presents a spatially-resolved 2CP system with the objective of quantifying and reducing measurement uncertainty. An optical setup that eliminates parallax in 2CP is used together with pixel-by-pixel calibration of the camera sensor to increase measurement accuracy. Primary uncertainty terms are identified, and an error propagation analysis is performed to compute uncertainties in the final results of soot temperature, soot concentration parameter, KL, and soot mass. These methodologies are applied to investigate an auto-igniting fuel spray in a constant pressure flow rig at diesel-like conditions of high ambient pressure and temperature. Results show bias uncertainty of around 200 K (≈10%) for temperature and about 40%–60% for KL. High uncertainty was found to occur on the diffusion flame front where both optical thickness and soot concentrations are small. However, these uncertain measurement zones with relatively low soot concentrations contribute minimally to the total soot mass present in the reacting jet during the temporal evolution of the flame.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Results of the first implementation of RF phase signature matching at LANSCE

The LINAC at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has been utilizing the Delta-t method to match the RF cavities to the design acceleration parameters since its commissioning in 1972. The differences in time-of-flight between two subsequent Beam Position and Phase Monitors (BPPMs) are measured with both accelerated and drifting beams, depending on the whether the module is set to on or off. The algorithm optimizes the module amplitude and phase via iterative measurements if the initial phase is in the vicinity of the design value. With an upgrade to a faster readout system, a scan over the whole RF cavity phase range requires relatively less time than the classical optimization procedure. The Phase Scan Signature Matching (PSSM) method provides a time-efficient method that ensures the phase selection lands on the bunching side and empowers future analyses to build module-specific models. The PSSM also utilizes a direct model to determine the correct amplitude to sub-percent level instead of using linearized matrices. Furthermore, lacking a reliable energy measurement method in the LINAC, we measure the beam phases at two downstream locations to increase the precision of energy measurements. In this letter, we also discuss the sensitivities of PSSM, error propagation, and the implementation results for the 2019 and 2020 beam cycles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deeply uncertain: comparing methods of uncertainty quantification in deep learning algorithms

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of inhomogeneous stochasticity on the falsifiability of mean-field theories and examples from accretion disc modelling

ABSTRACT Despite spatial and temporal fluctuations in turbulent astrophysical systems, mean-field theories can be used to describe their secular evolution. However, observations taken over time scales much shorter than dynamical time scales capture a system in a single state of its turbulence ensemble. Comparing with mean-field theory can falsify the latter only if the theory is additionally supplied with a quantified precision. The central limit theorem provides appropriate estimates to the precision only when fluctuations contribute linearly to an observable and with constant coherent scales. Here, we introduce an error propagation formula that relaxes both limitations, allowing for non-linear functional forms of observables and inhomogeneous coherent scales and amplitudes of fluctuations. The method is exemplified in the context of accretion disc theories, where inhomogeneous fluctuations in the surface temperature are propagated to the disc emission spectrum – the latter being a non-linear and non-local function of the former. The derived precision depends non-monotonically on emission frequency. Using the same method, we investigate how binned spectral fluctuations in telescope data change with the spectral resolving power. We discuss the broader implications for falsifiability of a mean-field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust clustering of the local Milky Way stellar kinematic substructures with Gaia eDR3

Understanding local stellar kinematic substructures in the solar neighbourhood helps build a complete picture of the formation of the Milky Way, as well as an empirical phase space distribution of dark matter that would inform detection experiments. We apply the clustering algorithm HDBSCAN on the Gaia early third data release to identify a list of stable clusters in velocity space and action-angle space by taking into account the measurement uncertainties and studying the stability of the clustering results. We find 1405 (497) stars in 23 (6) robust clusters in velocity space (action-angle space) that are consistently not associated with noise. We discuss the kinematic properties of these structures and study whether many of the small clusters belong to a similar larger cluster based on their chemical abundances. They are attributed to the known structures: the Gaia Sausage-Enceladus, the Helmi Stream, and globular cluster NGC 3201 are found in both spaces, while NGC 104 and the thick disc (Sequoia) are identified in velocity space (action-angle space). Although we do not identify any new structures, we find that the HDBSCAN member selection of already known structures is unstable to input kinematics of the stars when resampled within their uncertainties. We therefore present the stable subset of local kinematic structures, which are consistently identified by the clustering algorithm, and emphasize the need to take into account error propagation during both the manual and automated identification of stellar structures, both for existing ones as well as future discoveries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporally Adaptive Compression for Scientific Dataset with Feature Preservation – A Case Study on Simulation Data with Extreme Climate Events Analysis

Scientific discoveries are increasingly constrained by limited storage space and I/O capacities. For time-series simulations and experiments, their data often need to be decimated over timesteps to accommodate storage and I/O limitations. In this paper, we propose a technique that addresses storage costs while improving post-analysis accuracy through spatiotemporal adaptive, error-controlled lossy compression. We investigate the trade-off between data precision and temporal output rates, revealing that reducing data precision and increasing timestep frequency lead to more accurate analysis outcomes. Additionally, we integrate spatiotemporal feature detection with data compression and demonstrate that performing adaptive error-bounded compression in higher dimensional space enables greater compression ratios, leveraging the error propagation theory of a transformation-based compressor. To evaluate our approach, we conduct experiments using the well-known E3SM climate simulation code and apply our method to compress variables used for cyclone tracking. Our results show a significant reduction in storage size while enhancing the quality of cyclone tracking analysis, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in comparison to the prevalent timestep decimation approach. Compared to three state-of-the-art lossy compressors lacking feature preservation capabilities, our adaptive compression framework improves perfectly matched cases in TC tracking by 26.4-51.3% at medium compression ratios and by 77.3-571.1% at large compression ratios, with a merely 5–11% computational overhead.

Gong, Qian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure-Driven Fiber-Optic Sensor for Online Corrosion Monitoring

For many industrial applications, corrosion is a life-limiting phenomenon and therefore requires careful consideration and rigorous experimental testing before structural materials can be reliably deployed, particularly in harsh chemical environments. The traditional approach to measuring corrosion requires exposing many samples to the intended environment and then extracting them individually at discrete intervals for postexposure characterization. This approach does not provide a high degree of temporal resolution, nor does it provide any real-time information regarding dynamic changes in corrosion rates. Additionally, developing an online corrosion monitor capable of surviving harsh chemical environments could provide valuable information regarding the structural health of components and changing process conditions that could accelerate corrosion. To this end, a corrosion sensor was developed based on a pressure-driven Fabry-Pérot cavity (FPC). This sensor uses a pressure control system to internally pressurize the FPC formed between the sensor’s housing and a metal-embedded singlemode optical fiber. Simultaneous measurement of the change in FPC length using low-coherence interferometry and the applied pressure enables the calculation of the relative changes in the sensor’s diaphragm thickness due to corrosion on its outer surface. Measurements were made in situ while actively corroding the sensor and were validated against surveillance specimens that were corroded simultaneously. The uncertainties in the measured corrosion were analyzed using error propagation of the uncertainties in the measured pressures and displacements and were found to be <1% of the initial diaphragm thickness.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maximum Likelihood Spectrum Decomposition for Isotope Identification and Quantification

A spectral decomposition method has been implemented to identify and quantify isotopic source terms in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy in static geometry and shielding scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations were used to build the response matrix of a shielded high-purity germanium detector monitoring an effluent stream with a Marinelli configuration. The decomposition technique was applied to a series of calibration spectra taken with the detector using a multi-nuclide standard. These results are compared with decay-corrected values from the calibration certificate. For most nuclei in the standard ( 241 Am, 109 Cd, 137 Cs, and 60 Co), the deviations from the certificate values were generally no more than 6% with a few outliers as high as 10%. Furthermore, for 57 Co, the radionuclide with the lowest activity, the deviations from the standard reached as high as 25%, driven by the meager statistics in the calibration spectra. In addition, a complete treatment of error propagation for the technique is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generating Uncertainty Distributions for Seismic Signal Onset Times

Signal arrival-time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival-time errors propagate through subsequent data-processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short-term average/long-term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data-derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

FFA@CEBAF beam transport error and tolerance simulation studies

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) is a 12 GeV recirculating electron accelerator at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLAB). Major upgrades to the accelerator are being investigated which include a new 650 MeV injection beamline and state-of-the-art fixed-field alternating (FFA) gradient recirculation arcs. The upgrade will extend the energy of the electron beam to over 20 GeV. In this paper, we provide an error and tolerance simulation study of the amended beam optics transport of the existing accelerator tuned for 22 GeV operation. The study is conducted with the particle tracking codes elegant and Bmad in two parts. In the first part, we treat each section of the accelerator (electromagnetic arcs and linacs) modularly with ideal conditions at the beginning. The second part is a pseudo start-to-end (S2E) simulation with accumulated errors propagating from one beamline to the next.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Update on Covariance Data Testing Strategy at LANL [Slides]

LANL is working towards an ENDF/B-VIII.0-based Covariance Library, with several key goals and work processes outlined. This includes processing through NJOY’s ERRORR module, identifying and correcting mathematical and physical deficiencies, communicating across pipeline from evaluator to end user, understanding use cases and interpreting results, and releasing to customers. Their testing approach includes interaction, processing, checks (mathematical properties, constraints, and physical bounds), and error propagation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Product Consistency Test and Vapor Hydration Test Comparisons of a Radioactive Hanford Waste Glass with its Non-Radioactive Simulant Glass

Product Consistency Tests (PCT) and Vapor Hydration Tests (VHT) were performed on a radioactive glass made from Hanford tank AP-107 waste (i.e., R-AP-107) and its non-radioactive equivalent glass made from simulated tank waste (i.e., S-AP-107). The radioactive and non-radioactive experiments were conducted in parallel with identical equipment, protocols, and staff to remove additional experimental uncertainties. PCT and VHT results are reported for all samples and are shown in Table S.1. Average normalized mass loss of B ( NL B ) and Na ( NL Na ) calculated from the three replicate test results for each glass with their respective standard deviations (SD) are presented for PCT results while individual VHT rates ( r VHT ) with their propagated errors ( σ r prop ) from individual thickness measurements on each sample are presented for the VHT results. Some VHT samples experienced more than 50% evaporation loss during the experiments. However, no visible alteration was detected on any VHT samples regardless on the amount of evaporation loss detected as shown in Table S.1.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

dynamics of organic-mineral interactions at the metal oxide-solution interface as studied via binding energetics (Final report)

This project focused on addressing longstanding fundamental and experimental uncertainties on how dissolved organic substances (DOS) interact with metal oxide surface under environmentally relevant conditions. By leveraging a custom-built real-time, in-tandem flow adsorption microcalorimetry-UV-Vis/fluorescence spectroscopy platform, we characterized the binding energetics, kinetics and mechanistic pathways driving DOS-metal oxide interactions at temporal resolution on the order of 1-5 seconds. We studied a diverse suite of model organic compounds/substances – including monocarboxylates (e.g. acetate and benzoate), di-carboxylates (oxalate and succinate), amino acids, amino-based nanparticles and natural organic matter – interacting at the mineral-water interface of structurally- and/or chemically distinct metal oxides (including SiO2, boehmite, ferrihydrite, and γ-Al2O3). Our results indicated that DOS-metal oxide interactions are governed by multi-step reaction pathways, often switching between distinct, resolvable enthalpy- and entropy-driven non-electrostatic or electrostatic configurations. To quantify these interactions, we developed and implemented an analytical workflow that integrates peak deconvolution and Monte-Carlo based error propagation to determine site-specific thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for individual binding/debinding events. In addition to resolving apparent first-order rate constants of each event, we were able to quantify associated apparent equilibrium constants as well as free energy, enthalpy and entropy contribution to the activation and subsequent progression of the binding/debinding process across compounds, compound class and metal oxide surfaces. The kinetic-thermodynamic data produced in this study captured how the interplay between oxide surface reactivity and DOS molecular structure jointly drives binding-debinding dynamics. Notably, that at pH below PZC of the oxide surface, neutral species were heavily involved in monocarboxylate binding, while anionic species drove dicarboxylate binding. Also, that among amino acids 1) positional isomers show distinctive binding characteristics to each other while enantiomers show no significant differences in binding characteristics, 2) molecules that bind via outer-sphere complexation show a larger entropic shift between binding and debinding with no impact on oxide surface while 3) inner-sphere interactions increased anion exchange capacity of the oxide surface. The new insights and data from this work has great potential for improving predictive modeling of carbon dynamics and specifically organic-mineral interactions in environmental and industrial systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dense Image Matching Uncertainty Estimation and Confidence Metrics

Dense stereo matching takes overlapping image pairs as input and outputs a disparity map which encodes pixel-by-pixel matches between the images. Recently, there has been an interest in ranking the quality, or even quantifying the accuracy, of disparity estimates. The proposed methods can be described as either uncertainty estimators or confidence metrics. Uncertainty estimators are a small minority of the research. However, they have the potential to be the most useful because they estimate disparity accuracy (in pixel units) that can be used to threshold matches or carried forward using error propagation. The majority of the research deals with confidence metrics which give an ordinal (or binary) ranking of a match’s quality relative to other matches. Confidence metrics do not have units and thus are useful primarily for thresholding matches from mismatches. The methods could also be described as handcrafted or deep-learning based. The majority of the research focused on outdoor driving scenes. Hence, our interest–application to a satellite semi-global matching pipeline–is a domain shift that may challenge deep-learning based methods. We conclude by recommending five handcrafted and two deep-learning based methods for evaluation in our pipeline.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validating the Use of Gaussian Process Regression for Adaptive Mapping of Residual Stress Fields

Probing the stress state using a high density of measurement points is time intensive and presents a limitation for what is experimentally feasible. Alternatively, individual strain fields used for determining stresses can be reconstructed from a subset of points using a Gaussian process regression (GPR). Results presented in this paper evidence that determining stresses from reconstructed strain fields is a viable approach for reducing the number of measurements needed to fully sample a component’s stress state. The approach was demonstrated by reconstructing the stress fields in wire-arc additively manufactured walls fabricated using either a mild steel or low-temperature transition feedstock. Effects of errors in individual GP reconstructed strain maps and how these errors propagate to the final stress maps were assessed. Implications of the initial sampling approach and how localized strains affect convergence are explored to give guidance on how best to implement a dynamic sampling experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characteristics of the IBEX Ribbon and Their Implications for a Source Region Outside the Heliopause

This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer energetic neutral atom (ENA) ribbon, focusing on its spatial and temporal variations over 14 yr. Methodological advancements, including a refined map modeling procedure and a new ribbon separation technique with appropriate error propagation, enable a detailed investigation of the ribbon’s features. Utilizing statistically robust metrics, this study reveals details of the ribbon across energy and time. Key findings include energy- and time-dependent variations in flux, angular radius, ribbon profile width, and higher moments. By applying these metrics, we reveal new complexity to the evolution of the ribbon over time, highlighting the nuanced relationship between it and the solar wind. Furthermore, the study examines for the first time the ribbon as it passes through the starboard/heliotail region (Lon EC 120°–180°), revealing properties distinct from other portions of the ribbon. The analysis uncovers an anticorrelation between ribbon width and flux, which provides quantitative support for a multisource ribbon created by a combination of solar wind neutrals that generate a spatiall narrow ribbon component and heliosheath neutrals giving rise to a broad component. Finally, differences in the temporal evolution of the ENA flux at different energies provide additional support that the location of the ribbon source region is beyond the heliopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗