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At least 145 records · Page 8

Local Truncation Error-Informed Code Verification

The method of manufactured solutions (MMS) has become increasingly popular in conducting code verification studies on predictive codes, such as nuclear power system codes and computational fluid dynamic codes. The reason for the popularity of this approach is that it can be used when an analytical solution is not available. Using MMS, code developers are able to verify that their code is free of coding errors that impact the observed order of accuracy. While MMS is still an excellent tool for code verification, it does not identify coding errors that are of the same order as the numerical method. This paper presents a method that combines MMS with modified equation analysis (MEA), which calculates the local truncation error (LTE) to identify coding error up to and including the order of the numerical method. This method is referred to as modified equation analysis methd of manufactured solutions (MEAMMS). MEAMMS is then applied to a custom-built code, which solves the shallow water equations, to test the performance of the code verification method. MEAMMS is able to detect all coding errors that impact the implementation of the numerical scheme. To show how MEAMMS is different than MMS, they are both applied to the same first-order numerical method test problem with a first-order coding error. When there are first-order coding errors, only MEAMMS is able to identify them. Finally, this shows that MEAMMS is able to identify a larger set of coding errors while still being able to identify the coding errors MMS is able to identify.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗

CPO Prediction: Accuracy Assessment and Impact on UT1 Intensive Results

The UT1 Intensive results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with a delay of two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1 Intensive data analysis, and errors in the predictions can influence the operational UT1 accuracy. In this paper we assess the real accuracy of CPO prediction using the actual IERS and PUL predictions made in 2007-2009. Also, results of operational processing were analyzed to investigate the actual impact of EOP prediction errors on the rapid UT1 results. It was found that the impact of CPO prediction errors is at a level of several microseconds, whereas the impact of the inaccuracy in the polar motion prediction may be about one order of magnitude larger for ultra-rapid UT1 results. The situation can be amended if the IERS Rapid solution will be updated more frequently.

Malkin, Zinovy↗

High order interpolation of magnetic fields with vector potential reconstruction for particle simulations

We propose a method for interpolating divergence-free continuous magnetic fields via vector potential reconstruction using Hermite interpolation, which ensures high-order continuity for applications requiring adaptive, high-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) integrators, such as the Dormand-Prince method. The method provides C(m) continuity and achieves high-order accuracy, making it particularly suited for particle trajectory integration and Poincaré section analysis under optimal integration order and timestep adjustments. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the Hermite interpolation method preserves volume and continuity, which are critical for conserving toroidal canonical momentum and magnetic moment in guiding center simulations, especially over long-term trajectory integration. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of insufficient derivative continuity on Runge-Kutta schemes and show how it degrades accuracy at low error tolerances, introducing discontinuity-induced truncation errors. Lastly, we demonstrate performant Poincaré section analysis in two relevant settings of field data collocated from finite element meshes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Performance of the all-digital data-transition tracking loop in the advanced receiver

The performance of the all-digital data-transition tracking loop (DTTL) with coherent or noncoherent sampling is described. The effects of few samples per symbol and of noncommensurate sampling rates and symbol rates are addressed and analyzed. Their impacts on the loop phase-error variance and the mean time to lose lock (MTLL) are quantified through computer simulations. The analysis and preliminary simulations indicate that with three to four samples per symbol, the DTTL can track with negligible jitter because of the presence of earth Doppler rate. Furthermore, the MTLL is also expected to be large engough to maintain lock over a Deep Space Network track.

Cheng, U.↗

Spectral Characterizations of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Thermistor Bolometers using Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) Techniques

Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) techniques are being used to characterize the relative spectral response, or sensitivity, of scanning thermistor bolometers in the infrared (IR) region (2 - >= 100-micrometers). The bolometers are being used in the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) program. The CERES measurements are designed to provide precise, long term monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric radiation energy budget. The CERES instrument houses three bolometric radiometers, a total wavelength (0.3- >= 150-micrometers) sensor, a shortwave (0.3-5-micrometers) sensor, and an atmospheric window (8-12-micrometers) sensor. Accurate spectral characterization is necessary for determining filtered radiances for longwave radiometric calibrations. The CERES bolometers spectral response's are measured in the TRW FTS Vacuum Chamber Facility (FTS - VCF), which uses a FTS as the source and a cavity pyroelectric trap detector as the reference. The CERES bolometers and the cavity detector are contained in a vacuum chamber, while the FTS source is housed in a GN2 purged chamber. Due to the thermal time constant of the CERES bolometers, the FTS must be operated in a step mode. Data are acquired in 6 IR spectral bands covering the entire longwave IR region. In this paper, the TRW spectral calibration facility design and data measurement techniques are described. Two approaches are presented which convert the total channel FTS data into the final CERES spectral characterizations, producing the same calibration coefficients (within 0.1 percent). The resulting spectral response curves are shown, along with error sources in the two procedures. Finally, the impact of each spectral response curve on CERES data validation will be examined through analysis of filtered radiance values from various typical scene types.

Thornhill, K. Lee↗

Parametric Modeling of the Safety Effects of NextGen Terminal Maneuvering Area Conflict Scenarios

The goal of this work was to analytically identify and quantify the issues, challenges, technical hurdles, and pilot-vehicle interface issues associated with conflict detection and resolution (CD&R)in emerging operational concepts for a NextGen terminal aneuvering area, including surface operations. To this end, the work entailed analytical and trade studies focused on modeling the achievable safety benefits of different CD&R strategies and concepts in the current and future airport environment. In addition, crew-vehicle interface and pilot performance enhancements and potential issues were analyzed based on review of envisioned NextGen operations, expected equipage advances, and human factors expertise. The results of perturbation analysis, which quantify the high-level performance impact of changes to key parameters such as median response time and surveillance position error, show that the analytical model developed could be useful in making technology investment decisions.

Rogers, William H.↗

Development of an OSSE Framework for a Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are powerful tools for estimating the usefulness of various configurations of envisioned observing systems and data assimilation techniques. Their utility stems from their being conducted in an entirely simulated context, utilizing simulated observations having simulated errors and drawn from a simulation of the earth's environment. Observations are generated by applying physically based algorithms to the simulated state, such as performed during data assimilation or using other appropriate algorithms. Adding realistic instrument plus representativeness errors, including their biases and correlations, can be critical for obtaining realistic assessments of the impact of a proposed observing system or analysis technique. If estimates of the expected accuracy of proposed observations are realistic, then the OSSE can be also used to learn how best to utilize the new information, accelerating its transition to operations once the real data are available. As with any inferences from simulations, however, it is first imperative that some baseline OSSEs are performed and well validated against corresponding results obtained with a real observing system. This talk provides an overview of, and highlights critical issues related to, the development of an OSSE framework for the tropospheric weather prediction component of the NASA GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation system. The framework includes all existing observations having significant impact on short-term forecast skill. Its validity has been carefully assessed using a range of metrics that can be evaluated in both the OSSE and real contexts, including adjoint-based estimates of observation impact. A preliminary application to the Aeolus Doppler wind lidar mission, scheduled for launch by the European Space Agency in 2014, has also been investigated.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites (PART 1)

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the "instrument simulator" step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements.

GEOS-5↗

Assessment of Near-Angle Scatter on Exo-Earth Coronagraphy

A first order single surface analysis indicates that, to enable coronagraphic detection and characterization of exo-Earth planets, near angle scatter must be considered when specifying optical surfaces for a potential Habitable World Observatory. Based on arbitrary error budget allocations and using Rayleigh-Rice Vector Scatter Theory, Generalized Harvey-Shack Scalar Scatter Theory, and Greynolds Approximation, ‘placeholder’ specifications for the primary mirror are derived: Static Surface Roughness < 1 nm rms, and Dynamic Surface Roughness < 1 pm PV. These specifications will change once error budget allocations are defined. Analysis does not include scatter from more than just the primary mirror, coating structure, edges, contamination, micrometeoroid impacts, etc.

H. Philip Stahl↗

A preliminary error analysis of the gravity field recovery from a lunar Satellite-to-Satellite mission

A low cost lunar Satellite-to-Satellite radio tracking mission in a low-low configuration could considerably improve the existing knowledge about the lunar gravity field. The impact of various mission parameters that may contribute to the recovery of the gravity field, such as satellite altitude, satellite separation mission duration, measurement precision and sampling interval were quantified using the Jekeli-Rapp algorithm. Preliminary results indicate that the gravity field resolution up to harmonic degree 40 to 80 is feasible depending on various mission configurations. Radio tracking data from a six-month mission with a precision of 1 mm/s every 10 s and 300 km satellite separation at 150 km altitude will permit the determination of 5 deg x 5 deg mean gravity anomalies with an error of approximately 15 mgals. Consideration of other unaccounted error sources of instrumental, operational, and environmental nature may lower this resolution.

Iz, Huseyin B.↗

Assimilation of SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations in the GEOS Land–Atmosphere Data Assimilation System

Errors in soil moisture adversely impact the modeling of land–atmosphere water and energy fluxes and, consequently, near-surface atmospheric conditions in atmospheric data assimilation systems (ADAS). To mitigate such errors, a land surface analysis is included in many such systems, although not yet in the currently operational NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ADAS. This article investigates the assimilation of L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission in the GEOS weakly coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation system (LADAS) during boreal summer 2017. The SMAP Tb analysis improves the correlation of LADAS surface and root-zone soil moisture versus in situ measurements by ∼0.1–0.26 over that of ADAS estimates; the unbiased root-mean-square error of LADAS soil moisture is reduced by 0.002–0.008 m^3 /m^3 from that of ADAS. Furthermore, the global land average RMSE versus in situ measurements of screen-level air specific humidity (q2m) and daily maximum temperature (T2m_max ) is reduced by 0.05 g/kg and 0.04 K, respectively, for LADAS compared to ADAS estimates. Regionally, the RMSE of LADAS q2m and T2m_max is improved by up to 0.4 g/kg and 0.3 K, respectively. Improvement in LADAS specific humidity extends into the lower troposphere (below ∼700 mb), with relative improvements in bias of 15–25%, although LADAS air temperature bias slightly increases relative to that of ADAS. Finally, the root mean square of the LADAS Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals is smaller by up to ∼0.1 K than in a land-only assimilation system, corroborating the positive impact of the Tb analysis on the modeled land–atmosphere coupling.

microwave remote sensing↗

Quantifying Leak Rates and Vacuum Impact on Granular Soil Column Pneumatic Seal

Introduction: All In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) regolith reactor systems that aim to extract gases or vapors must maintain a seal along the flow path of the regolith from the inlet hopper to where extracted gases or vapors are generated. Using a column of regolith at the inlet has been proposed as an alternative to systems using series of mechanical valves to reduce mass and complexity. Preliminary investigations into the use of regolith itself as a barrier to escaping fluids have been conducted, which this research seeks to expand upon. Different vertical regolith simulant plug diameters and heights were tested under vacuum with dry nitrogen to observe leak rates and approximate steady state pressure gradient equilibria. The effect of absolute ambient pressure was also studied by repeating tests at incremental pressures ranging from 10e-5 Torr up to 1 atm to corroborate ambient bench tests from previous work. The impact of regolith dynamics was addressed to emulate continuous-feed regolith reaction processes by measuring leak rates through continuously draining simulant columns. OB-1 lunar highlands regolith simulant was used. Experimental Setup: Regolith simulant columns were constructed using a motorized butterfly valve separating upper acrylic tubes of various diameters from a larger, lower aluminum pipe plenum (See Figure 1). The butterfly valve was cracked open such that gas could freely pass through whereas regolith would bridge and stay suspended as a cohesive plug above in the acrylic portion. These assemblies were loaded into a vacuum chamber, and a compressed dry nitrogen line was routed into the lower plenum. Pressure transducers measured the absolute pressure of the lower plenum, which was compared to absolute chamber pressure to monitor the pressure gradient across the regolith simulant. A precision mass flow controller enabled fine control of plenum pressure. The plenum pressure was quasi-statically increased to set points informed by previous work [1] before shutting off the gas supply to allow the now pressurized gas volume to dissipate through the simulant into the chamber in what was referred to as a ‘leak test.’ In a separate set of tests, the pressure was allowed to quasi-statically build until visual disturbances in the soil were observed via remote camera feeds. Initial leak rate tests were repeated on the disturbed soil to observe changes in leak rates between initial as-poured and post-bubbling soil conditions. This test schedule was applied to simulant columns of three different diameters (approximately 2, 4, and 6 inches) as well as two different heights (around 8 and 16 inches) and was repeated at least three times for each configuration. Plenums were also pressurized while the butterfly valves were opened slightly further to facilitate slow, controlled, constant flowrate draining of the simulant to observe the impact that continuous-feed systems might have on leak rate through the regolith column. Finally, the regolith columns were reset and refilled and static leak rate tests were repeated approximately every decade in ambient pressure from 10e-5 Torr up to ambient conditions to observe the impact of transitioning out of the molecular flow regime on regolith column seal performance. Analysis: Trends with respect to each factor examined were constructed and reported alongside commentary on the most likely responsible physical phenomena. Confidence intervals were applied to the predictive findings of the data by quantifying instrumentation error and accounting for probabilistic impacts of curve fitting the generic exponential function onto pressure decay data. The leak rate is assumed directly proportional to the exponential term coefficient, while the steady-state static pressure gradient is assumed to be the asymptotic limit of each curve fit. Finally, a generic model developed by Ogino et al. [2] and later tuned for ambient testing was re-tuned using vacuum data to estimate leak rates on the lunar surface. Results: Pressure decay rates decreased up to 27-fold under vacuum when compared to ambient pressure, as shown in Figure 2. Simulant column diameter was found to exponentially correlate to both regolith column leak rate and steady-state equilibrium pressure delta. Height was found to be linearly related to leak rate –doubling the regolith column height consistently yielded around a 40% reduction in leak rate. Dynamic regolith draining was found to slightly increase leak rate, although to a lower degree than expected. Conclusion: Because of the transition into molecular gas flow through regolith, vacuum testing is required to properly estimate performance. Regolith columns should be designed as narrow as possible to avoid bridging and minimize leak rate, and as tall as is feasible to both further reduce leak rate and to help prevent bubbling, which has been shown to degrade the quality of the regolith seal. Disrupted soil was found to exhibit higher leak rates than pristine, as-poured soil, indicating the need to consider the impact of recovery from depressurization events. Regolith columns appear equally feasible for both dosed and continuous-feed reactors.

ISRU↗

Estimation of Aerodynamic Stability Derivatives for Space Launch System and Impact on Stability Margins

This paper describes the techniques involved in determining the aerodynamic stability derivatives for the frequency domain analysis of the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle. Generally for launch vehicles, determination of the derivatives is fairly straightforward since the aerodynamic data is usually linear through a moderate range of angle of attack. However, if the wind tunnel data lacks proper corrections then nonlinearities and asymmetric behavior may appear in the aerodynamic database coefficients. In this case, computing the derivatives becomes a non-trivial task. Errors in computing the nominal derivatives could lead to improper interpretation regarding the natural stability of the system and tuning of the controller parameters, which would impact both stability and performance. The aerodynamic derivatives are also provided at off nominal operating conditions used for dispersed frequency domain Monte Carlo analysis. Finally, results are shown to illustrate that the effects of aerodynamic cross axis coupling can be neglected for the SLS configuration studied

Pei, Jing↗

Scaling Observation Error for Optimal Assimilation of CCI SST Data into a Regional HYCOM EnOI System

South Africa currently possesses no operational ocean forecasting system for the purpose of predicting ocean state variables including temperature,salinity and velocity. Substantial initial efforts towards this goal have been made and resulted in a system using a regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) along with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI)assimilation scheme. Assimilating only sea surface temperature (SST) observations from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product into the system resulted in a degraded forecast. Aiming to address this, Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSTs are assimilated into the system in an effort to improve the forecast skill. Observation errors in the assimilated product are used in the EnOI to determine whether more confidence should be placed in the model or observations in producing the analysis, but overconfidence in observations can shock the model and result in failure. To tweak the impact of the assimilation, a scaling factor is applied in the assimilation code. A scaling factor of 25 was found to produce a favourable result with lowest mean root mean square error (RMSE;1.098°C) between the model and observations over time. Postulating the error to be overconfident, a floor value is introduced in order to set a minimum value for the observation error thereby reducing confidence in the observations. These experiments fared less favourably with a floor value of 0.5 and a scaling factor of 15 producing the best mean RMSE (1.118°C).

Luyt, Hermann↗

Analysis of estimation algorithms for CDTI and CAS applications

Estimation algorithms for Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) and Collision Avoidance System (CAS) applications were analyzed and/or developed. The algorithms are based on actual or projected operational and performance characteristics of an Enhanced TCAS II traffic sensor developed by Bendix and the Federal Aviation Administration. Three algorithm areas are examined and discussed. These are horizontal x and y, range and altitude estimation algorithms. Raw estimation errors are quantified using Monte Carlo simulations developed for each application; the raw errors are then used to infer impacts on the CDTI and CAS applications. Applications of smoothing algorithms to CDTI problems are also discussed briefly. Technical conclusions are summarized based on the analysis of simulation results.

Goka, T.↗

Self-Calibration of BICEP1 Three-Year Data and Constraints on Astrophysical Polarization Rotation

Cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarimeters aspire to measure the faint B-mode signature predicted to arise from inflationary gravitational waves. They also have the potential to constrain cosmic birefringence, rotation of the polarization of the CMB arising from parity-violating physics, which would produce nonzero expectation values for the CMB's temperature to B-mode correlation (TB) and E-mode to B-mode correlation (EB) spectra. However, instrumental systematic effects can also cause these TB and EB correlations to be nonzero. In particular, an overall miscalibration of the polarization orientation of the detectors produces TB and EB spectra which are degenerate with isotropic cosmological birefringence, while also introducing a small but predictable bias on the BB spectrum. We find that BICEP1 three-year spectra, which use our standard calibration of detector polarization angles from a dielectric sheet, are consistent with a polarization rotation of alpha = −2.77deg +/- 0.86deg (statistical) +/- 1.3deg (systematic). We have revised the estimate of systematic error on the polarization rotation angle from the two-year analysis by comparing multiple calibration methods. We also account for the (negligible) impact of measured beam systematic effects. We investigate the polarization rotation for the BICEP1 100 GHz and 150 GHz bands separately to investigate theoretical models that produce frequency-dependent cosmic birefringence. We find no evidence in the data supporting either of these models or Faraday rotation of the CMB polarization by the Milky Way galaxy's magnetic field. If we assume that there is no cosmic birefringence, we can use the TB and EB spectra to calibrate detector polarization orientations, thus reducing bias of the cosmological B-mode spectrum from leaked E-modes due to possible polarization orientation miscalibration. After applying this "self-calibration" process, we find that the upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio decreases slightly, from r < 0.70 to r < 0.65 at 95% confidence.

three-year↗