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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body mock challenge for the eBOSS emission line galaxy sample

ABSTRACT Cosmological growth can be measured in the redshift space clustering of galaxies targeted by spectroscopic surveys. Accurate prediction of clustering of galaxies will require understanding galaxy physics, which is a very hard and highly non-linear problem. Approximate models of redshift space distortion (RSD) take a perturbative approach to solve the evolution of dark matter and galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we focus on extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic (eBOSS) emission line galaxies (ELGs) that live in intermediate mass haloes. We create a series of mock catalogues using haloes from the Multidark and outer rim dark matter only N-body simulations. Our mock catalogues include various effects inspired by baryonic physics such as assembly bias and the characteristics of satellite galaxies kinematics, dynamics, and statistics deviating from dark matter particles. We analyse these mocks using the TNS RSD model in Fourier space and the convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) in configuration space. We conclude that these two RSD models provide an unbiased measurement of RSD within the statistical error of our mocks. We obtain the conservative theoretical systematic uncertainty of $3.3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $1.8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $1.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in fσ8, α∥, and α⊥, respectively, for the TNS and CLPT models. We note that the estimated theoretical systematic error is an order of magnitude smaller than the statistical error of the eBOSS ELG sample and hence are negligible for the purpose of the current eBOSS ELG analysis.

Alam, Shadab↗
DOE OSTI2024

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty) is a technique for estimating the uncertainty in a model's predictions for any regression task by approximating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model's errors over the course of training. The approximated CDF, combined with a similarity search algorithm in the model's descriptor space, can then be used to estimate the likelihood that the model's predictions on any given test point will fall below a chosen threshold. LTAU-FF (LTAU in atomistic Force Fields) is the application of LTAU specifically for use with atomistic force fields.

Vita, JoshuaA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Error Modeling for Prompt Yield Estimation [Slides]

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Point-Spread Function Modeling

We present the point-spread function (PSF) modeling for weak lensing shear measurement using the full six years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) data. We review the PSF estimation procedure using the PIFF (PSFs In the Full FOV) software package and describe the key improvements made to PIFF and modeling diagnostics since the DES year three (Y3) analysis: (i) use of external Gaia and infrared photometry catalogs to ensure higher purity of the stellar sample used for model fitting, (ii) addition of color-dependent PSF modeling, the first for any weak lensing analysis, and (iii) inclusion of model diagnostics inspecting fourth-order moments, which can bias weak lensing measurements to a similar degree as second-order modeling errors. Through a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests, we demonstrate the improved accuracy of the Y6 models evident in significantly smaller systematic errors than those of the Y3 analysis, in which all g band data were excluded due to insufficiently accurate PSF models. For the Y6 weak lensing analysis, we include g band photometry data in addition to the riz bands, providing a fourth band for photometric redshift estimation. Looking forward to the next generation of wide-field surveys, we describe several ongoing improvements to PIFF, which will be the default PSF modeling software for weak lensing analyses for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

AGR-5/6/7 CAPSULE 1 THERMAL MODEL WITH OFFSET GAS GAPS

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a 3 D finite-element thermal model that was subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty caused by the graphite holder nub-to-capsule clearance. This thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for Capsule 1 for four different days during the irradiation. In the analysis, the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder were varied. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) of the residuals (measured minus calculated thermocouple [TC] temperatures) for the operational TCs in Capsule 1. Near the end of the irradiation, when the graphite had shrunk and the gas gaps had grown, a peak temperature was found with maximum offset along the TC lines, with nickel introducing a potential mechanism for fuel particle failures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Discrete Superconvergence Analysis for Quantum Magnus Algorithms of Unbounded Hamiltonian Simulation

Motivated by various applications, unbounded Hamiltonian simulation has recently garnered great attention. Quantum Magnus algorithms, designed to achieve commutator scaling for time-dependent Hamiltonian simulation, have been found to be particularly efficient for such applications. When applied to unbounded Hamiltonian simulation in the interaction picture, they exhibit an unexpected superconvergence phenomenon. However, existing proofs are limited to the spatially continuous setting and do not extend to discrete spatial discretizations. Here, in this work, we provide the first superconvergence estimate in the fully discrete setting with a finite number of spatial discretization points N, and show that it holds with an error constant uniform in N. The proof is based on the two-parameter symbol class, which, to our knowledge, is applied for the first time in algorithm analysis. The key idea is to establish a semiclassical framework by identifying two parameters through the discretization number and the time step size rescaled by the operator norm, such that the semiclassical uniformity guarantees the uniformity of both. This approach may have broader applications in numerical analysis beyond the specific context of this work.

Borns-Weil, Yonah [University of California, Berke↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD matrix elements

Recent work [M. L. Wagman, Lanczos, the transfer matrix, and the signal-to-noise problem, .] found that an analysis formalism based on the Lanczos algorithm allows energy levels to be extracted from Euclidean correlation functions with faster ground-state convergence than effective masses, convergent estimators for multiple states from a single correlator, and two-sided error bounds. After filtering out spurious eigenvalues and using outlier-robust estimators within a nested bootstrap framework, Lanczos estimators behave more like multistate fit results than effective masses—but without involving statistical fitting. We extend this formalism to the determination of matrix elements from three-point correlation functions and provide a physical picture of “spurious-state filtering” involving restriction to a Hermitian subspace. We demonstrate similar advantages for matrix elements as for spectroscopy through example applications to noiseless mock-data and (bare) forward matrix elements of the strange scalar current between both ground and excited states with the quantum numbers of the nucleon.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiobjective Optimal Controlled Variable Selection for a Gas Turbine–Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Using a Multiagent Optimization Platform

Hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell systems have immense potential for high efficiency in electrical power generation with cleaner emissions compared with fossil-fueled power generation. We report a systematic controlled variable (CV) selection method is deployed for a hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell system in the HyPer (hybrid performance) facility at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) for maximizing its economic and control performance. A three-stage approach is used for the CV selection comprising a priori analysis, multiobjective optimization, and a posteriori analysis. The a priori analysis helps to screen off several candidate CVs, thus reducing the size of the combinatorial optimization problem for multiobjective CV selection. For optimal CV selection, a transfer function model of the HyPer facility is identified. By considering several candidate models, the final transfer function model is selected using Akaike’s Final Prediction Error criterion. Experimental data from the HyPer facility are used to estimate the noise in the measurement data. For solving the combinatorial multiobjective optimization problem for CV selection, a multiagent optimization platform comprising simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, and efficient ant colony optimization algorithms is used. Pareto-optimal CV sets exhibit a high trade-off between the economic and control objective. The a posteriori analysis is undertaken for several top Pareto-optimal CV sets. An optimal CV set is selected that shows the best compromise between process economics and controllability under both nominal and off-design conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for Steady-State Single-Phase Natural Circulation

The development of numerical software for engineering applications requires the validation of the code against experimental benchmark datasets. To support the validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in simulating the single-phase natural circulation within nuclear reactor systems, high-precision steady-state experiments are performed to capture single-phase natural circulation phenomena on an existing scaled facility with comprehensive instrumentation. Forced convection tests are designed precisely capturing the facility’s critical thermal-hydraulic parameters required for one-dimensional modeling, and a comprehensive single-phase natural circulation dataset is obtained with well-documented experimental uncertainty and facility description. Analysis and discussion based on the finalized dataset confirm the dataset’s ability in capturing dominant phenomena and address important physical interpretation of parameters. The dataset reported in this project provides a valuable benchmark resource for the validation of system analysis codes under single-phase natural circulation inside nuclear reactors. Validation of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is then performed against the obtained benchmark dataset to confirm the capability of its physics model in simulating the steady-state single-phase natural circulation. The experimental facility is modeled in the candidate code. Solution verification is performed using Richardson-extrapolation-based estimators to quantify and restrict numerical errors from discretization. Numerical uncertainty originating from finite maximum pseudo-transient time is also quantified and restricted. Input uncertainty provided by the benchmark dataset is forward propagated through the candidate code, directly quantifying the simulation output in a Monte Carlo approach. The composition of the output uncertainty is further determined by the estimators of Sobol’ indices through a variance-based sensitivity analysis. With uncertainty quantified for each individual condition, detailed comparison between the simulation results and experimental data is performed covering the whole dataset, which shows consistent agreement for all important quantities. The validation activity reported in this project demonstrates that SAS4A/SASSYS-1 can predict the primary parameters with satisfactorily accuracy under steady-state single-phase natural circulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing the Heisenberg Vortex Tube for Hydrogen Cooling (Final Technical Report)

Hydrogen utilization at Plug Power sites ranges between 70-93% with the remainder vented and lost to the atmosphere. The goal of this project was to improve hydrogen utilization at Plug Power fulfillment centers via the patented Heisenberg vortex tube (HVT). The HVT combines conventional counterflow vortex tubes with para-orthohydrogen conversion catalyst to allow the cooling of hydrogen flows with no moving parts or external energy inputs. In year 1 of this project the HVT was evaluated to improve hydrogen utilization via the following concepts: 1) increasing liquid hydrogen pump volumetric efficiency by 20% through vapor separation and subcooling of the liquid, 2) reducing liquid hydrogen storage tank boil-off losses by 20% through thermal vapor shielding (TVS), and 3) increase isentropic efficiency of supercritical hydrogen expansion at 40-50 K, from 31% to over 40%. The TVS concept was selected as the most favorable application for further development. While the conceptual analysis was underway, the cryocatalysis hydrogen experiment facility (CHEF) was retrofitted with a new cryocooler, higher pressure condenser tanks, and in-situ fiber-optic Raman probes for ortho-parahydrogen composition analysis at the inlets and outlets of the HVT. To our knowledge this is the first in-situ implementation of cryogenic Raman probes for ortho-parahydrogen analysis. Subsequent testing of catalyzed and non-catalyzed HVT identified a low flow rate, high-conversion efficacy regime well suited for TVS development. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD), Reduced order modeling (ROM), and quantum Monte Carlo atomistic simulations were applied to optimize the design of the HVT implemented for TVS. The simulations and analysis identified a ruthenium-based catalyst as the most optimal for high conversion with little pressure losses and was matched to experimental measurements. These results indicated the design could achieve the 20% boil-off reduction target. An HVT field-trial was designed and constructed by Plug Power and implemented at a customer site. However, budget limitations reduced the amount of catalyst that could be applied to the HVT. With the reduced amount of catalyst, CFD analysis estimated about 3% reduction in boil-off. A similar amount of boil-off reduction was observed during preliminary measurements during tank commissioning. However, the results have a large margin for error and were operated at relatively low tank temperatures when the HVT has the lowest potential for improvement. This project demonstrated the use of para-orthohydrogen catalysis for reducing liquid hydrogen tank boil-off losses. The field trial system is anticipated to provide long-term experimental measurements on tank operational performance that will allow Plug Power to instrument additional tanks in the future. Recommendations for future work include the development of higher activity, lower cost para-orthohydrogen conversion catalyst for use in the HVT. Tank process optimizations could maximize the efficacy of the HVT and further improve hydrogen utilization.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative analysis of Cu XANES spectra using linear combination fitting of binary mixtures simulated by FEFF9

We report x-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) is a powerful tool to probe the fingerprint of local structures, and when coupled with X-ray microscopy, the small spot size enables one to probe very specific regions of interest in a device or material, e.g. interfaces/bulk, different grains, good/bad electrical areas. In this work, we investigate the use of linear combination fitting (LCF) of XANES spectra for the particular case of Cu doping in CdTe. We show that the experimental data seem to be accurately represented by standards of Cu 2 Te and its substoichiometric counterpart, Cu 1.43 Te. We use Cu in CdTe as a case study to evaluate the accuracy of linear combination fitting using simulated standards, given that experimental standards for certain phases (e.g. Cu 1.43 Te) or defect structures (e.g. vacancies) cannot be readily obtained. We discuss how spectral features of the FEFF9-simulated standards, fitting ranges, and noise levels all dictate the accuracy of this type of analysis. We show that the greater the spectral difference between the two standards, the better the LCF is able to differentiate between the two structures and to tolerate experimental noise. Finally, we estimate the error of the fitted weights for different spectral features and noise levels and propose a framework to study local structures semi-quantitatively by using binary mixtures of FEFF9-simulated standards.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BOSS DR12 full-shape cosmology: Λ CDM constraints from the large-scale galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum monopole

Here, we present a full Λ CDM analysis of the BOSS DR12 dataset, including information from the power spectrum multipoles, the real-space power spectrum, the reconstructed power spectrum and the bispectrum monopole. This is the first analysis to feature a complete treatment of the galaxy bispectrum, including a consistent theoretical model and without large-scale cuts. Unlike previous works, the statistics are measured using window-free estimators: this greatly reduces computational costs by removing the need to window-convolve the theory model. Our pipeline is tested using a suite of high-resolution mocks and shown to be robust and precise, with systematic errors far below the statistical thresholds. Inclusion of the bispectrum yields consistent parameter constraints and shrinks the σ 8 posterior by 13% to reach < 5 % precision; less conservative analysis choices would reduce the error bars further. Our constraints are broadly consistent with Planck: in particular, we find H 0 = 69.6$^{+1.1}_{–1.3}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , σ 8 = 0.692$^{+0.035}_{–0.041}$ and n s = 0.870$^{+0.067}_{–0.064}$, including a BBN prior on the baryon density. When n s is set by Planck, we find H 0 = 68.31$^{+0.83}_{–0.86}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 and σ 8 = 0.722$^{+0.032}_{–0.036}$. Our S 8 posterior, 0.751 ± 0.039, is consistent with weak lensing studies, but lower than Planck. Constraints on the higher-order bias parameters are significantly strengthened from the inclusion of the bispectrum, and we find no evidence for deviation from the dark matter halo bias relations. These results represent the most complete full-shape analysis of BOSS DR12 to-date, and the corresponding spectra will enable a variety of beyond-Λ CDM analyses, probing phenomena such as the neutrino mass and primordial non-Gaussianity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗