Superposed Epoch Analysis of Dispersionless Particle Injections Inside Geosynchronous Orbit
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A general scenario is developed for the history of liquid water on the surface of Mars, according to which the history of water on Mars can be divided into four epochs based on the fundamental temperature and pressure characteristics. In Epoch I, the mean annual temperature is assumed to have been above freezing and the pressure to have been above 1 atm; liquid water was widespread and life could have arisen and become abundant. In Epoch II, the mean annual temperature fell below freezing, but peak temperatures were above freezing; In Epoch II ice-covered lakes could have provided a habitat for life. In Epoch III, both the mean and the peak temperatures were below freezing, and only transient liquid water would be possible; under these conditions, microbial ecosystems living in endolithic rock 'greenhouses' could have continued to survive. Finally, in Epoch IV, the pressure dropped to near the triple point pressure of water; at this stage, life on the surface of Mars would have become extinct.
We summarize astronomical, meteoritic, and theoretical evidence relating to the FU Orionis phenomenon. This evidence suggests that at early times (the first few 10(exp 5) yr), the solar nebula experienced a hot phase characterized by high accretion rates (the "FU Ori epoch"), punctuated by episodic outbursts of enhanced mass flow through the inner part of the disk (less than or equal to 0.3 AU). Throughout this epoch, disk midplane temperatures exceeded 1000 K at 1 AU. Diminishing infall from the cloud core led to decreasing mass flux throughout the disk. When mass flow de creased below the value critical for outburst (5 x 10(exp -7) solar mass/yr, as suggested by thermal ionization instability models), outbursts ceased and the T Tauri epoch began. Outburst timescales are too long to explain calcium- and aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI) and chondrule formation. Volatility-dependent fractionation patterns seen in meteoritic materials suggest that solids formed beginning during a hot epoch when temperatures exceeded 1400 K, and the presence of volatiles in chondrites argues that this process continued until the nebula had cooled to below 400 K. The thermal ionization instability model for FU Ori outbursts is in quantitative agreement with astronomical observations. Its results imply that the terrestrial region of the nebula reached the hot end of this range only during a time when mass flow through the disk was high enough to trigger outbursts (i.e., the FU Ori epoch) and reached the cool end of this range only during the later T Tauri epoch. According to the models, heating of material in the terrestrial planet region during individual FU Ori outbursts would be limited to surface layers of the nebula, leaving midplane materials (which are at greater than or equal to 1000 K) largely unaffected. Alternative FU Ori models should be developed, particularly if compositional differences among chondrite clans are attributable to episodic heating.
We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024
The structure of the expressions usually employed in calculating the effects of precession is examined, and a method is outlined for revising the expressions to account for changes in the fundamental astronomical constants. It is shown that the basic set of parameters, upon which depend the lengthy polynomials for computing the mean obliquity of data and the elements of the precession matrix, consists of the mean obliquity, the speed of general precession in longitude at a fixed epoch, and the system of planetary masses. Special attention is given to the motion of the ecliptic pole, formulations for a basic epoch as well as an arbitrary epoch, and ecliptic motion relative to the basic epoch. Numerical precession quantities at epoch J2000.0 (JED 2451545.0) are presented which result from the revision of astronomical constants adopted at the XVI General Assembly of the IAU.
The bright X-ray-selected BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304 has been the target of two intense multi-wavelength campaigns in 1991 November and in 1994 May. Although the spectral energy distributions at both epochs were quite similar, the source exhibited two very distinct variability patterns that cannot be easily reconciled with homogeneous one-zone C7 jet models. During the first epoch the variability was almost achromatic in amplitude, with a time lag between X-rays and ultraviolet radiation (UV) of approximately three hours, while during the second epoch the variability amplitude increased as a function of wavelength with the EUV flare peaking approximately one day after the X-ray flare. We model the source using a time-dependent inhomogeneous accelerating jet model. We reproduce the general characteristics of the different variability signatures by assuming that plasma disturbances with different physical properties propagate downstream in an underlying jet characterized by the same set of physical parameters at both epochs. A time delay of approximately one day between the hardening of the UV spectral index and the UV flux present at both epochs is modeled with stochastic fluctuations in the particle acceleration manifested through small variations of the maximum energy of the injected electrons. We predict that similar time delays will be present in future observations even in the absence of strong variability event. We stress the importance of observations at neighboring frequencies as a diagnostic tool for the structure of the quiescent jet in blazars especially in the seemingly dull case in which strong variability is absent.
As part of a long-term attempt to learn how the climatic and tectonic signal interact to shape a steady state mountain monitored displacement of a markers in SE termination and also near the summit of a small viscous salt fountain extruding onto the Central plateau of Iran. The marker displacements relate to the first InSAR interferograms of salt extrusion (980913 to 990620) calculated Earth tides, winds, air pressures and temperatures. In the first documented staking exercise, hammered wooden stakes vertically through the surgical marl (c. 1 Ocm deep) onto the top of crystalline salt. These stakes installed in an irregular array elongate E-W along the c.50 m high cliff marking the effective SE terminus of the glacier at Qum Kuh(Centra1 Iran) ,just to the E of a NE trending river cliff about 40 m high. We merely measured the distances between pairs of stakes with known azimuth about 2 m apart to calculate sub horizontal strain in a small part of Qum Kuh. Stakes moved and micro strains for up to 46 pairs of stakes (p strain= ((lengthl-length2)/1engthl) x 10-1) was calculated for each seven stake epochs and plotted against their azimuth on simplified array maps. The data fit well the sine curves cxpected of the maximum and minimum strain ellipses. The first documented stakes located on the SE where the InSAR image show -1 1 to 0 mm pink to purple, 0 to lOmm purple to blue, and show high activity of salt in low activity area of the InSAR image (980913 to 990620).Short term micro strains of stake tie lines record anisotropic expansions due to heating and contraction due to cooling. All epochs changed between 7 to 1 17 days (990928 to000 1 16), showed 200 to 400 micro strain lengthening and shortening. The contraction and extension existed in each epoch, but the final strain was extension in E-W in Epoch land 6, contraction in E-W direction during epochs 2-3-4-5 and 7. The second pair of stakes hammered about 20 cm deep into the deep soils(more than 1 m) , near summit, where the colors change between 19 to 29mm in InSAR image(9809 13 to 990620). Additional information is included in the original abstract.
A GPS attitude receiver for determining the attitude of a moving vehicle in conjunction with a first, a second, a third, and a fourth antenna mounted to the moving vehicle. Each of the antennas receives a plurality of GPS signals that each include a carrier component. For each of the carrier components of the received GPS signals there is an integer ambiguity associated with the first and fourth antennas, an integer ambiguity associated with second and fourth antennas, and an integer ambiguity associated with the third and fourth antennas. The GPS attitude receiver measures phase values for the carrier components of the GPS signals received from each of the antennas at a plurality of measurement epochs during an initialization period and at a measurement epoch after the initialization period. In response to the phase values measured at the measurement epochs during the initialization period, the GPS attitude receiver computes integer ambiguity resolution values representing resolution of the integer ambiguities. Then, in response to the computed integer ambiguity resolution values and the phase value measured at the measurement epoch after the initialization period, it computes values defining the attitude of the moving vehicle at the measurement epoch after the initialization period.
The microquasar GRS 1758-258 is one of only three persistent black hole binaries that spend most of their time in the hard spectral state, the other two being Cyg X-l and 1E 1741.7-2942. It therefore provides the rare opportunity for an extensive long term study of this important black hole state which is associated with strong variability and radio jet emission. INTEGRAL has been monitoring the source since the first Galactic Center Deep Exposure season in spring 2003 during two 2-3 months long Galactic Center viewing epochs each year, amounting to 11 epochs including spring of 2008. With the exception of the last epoch quasi-simultaneous RXTE monitoring observations are available as well. Here we present an analysis of the epoch averaged broad band spectra which display considerable long term variability, most notably the occurrence of two soft/off states, extreme examples for the hysteretic behavior of black hole binaries. The hard source spectrum and long exposures allow us to extend the analysis for several epochs to approximately 800 keV using PICsIT data and address the question of the presence of a non-thermal Comptonization component.
We have commenced a multiyear program, the Caltech-NRAO Stripe 82 Survey (CNSS), to search for radio transients with the Jansky VLA in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region. The CNSS will deliver five epochs over the entire approx. 270 deg.(exp. 2) of Stripe 82, an eventual deep combined map with an rms noise of approx. 40 proper motion epoch y and catalogs at a frequency of 3 GHz, and having a spatial resolution of 3 inches. This first paper presents the results from an initial pilot survey of a 50 deg.(exp. 2) region of Stripe 82, involving four epochs spanning logarithmic timescales between 1 week and 1.5 yr, with the combined map having a median rms noise of 35 proper motion epoch y. This pilot survey enabled the development of the hardware and software for rapid data processing, as well as transient detection and follow-up, necessary for the full 270 deg.(exp. 2) survey. Data editing, calibration, imaging, source extraction, cataloging, and transient identification were completed in a semi-automated fashion within 6 hr of completion of each epoch of observations, using dedicated computational hardware at the NRAO in Socorro and custom-developed data reduction and transient detection pipelines. Classification of variable and transient sources relied heavily on the wealth of multiwavelength legacy survey data in the Stripe 82 region, supplemented by repeated mapping of the region by the Palomar Transient Factory. A total of 3.9(+0.5%/-0.9%) of the few thousand detected point sources werefound to vary by greater than 30%, consistent with similar studies at 1.4 and 5 GHz. Multiwavelength photometric data and light curves suggest that the variability is mostly due to shock-induced flaring in the jets of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Although this was only a pilot survey, we detected two bona fide transients, associated with an RS CVn binary and a dKe star. Comparison with existing legacy survey data (FIRST, VLA-Stripe 82) revealed additional highly variable and transient sources on timescales between 5 and 20 yr, largely associated with renewed AGN activity. The rates of such AGNs possibly imply episodes of enhanced accretion and jet activity occurring once every approx. 40,000 yr in these galaxies. We compile the revised radio transient rates and make recommendations for future transient surveys and joint radio-optical experiments.
Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.
In this work we develop EPOCH (equilibrium propagator by orthogonal polynomial chain), a computationally efficient method to calculate the time-dependent equilibrium Green's functions, including the anomalous Green's functions of superconductors, to capture the time evolution in large inhomogeneous systems. The EPOCH method generalizes the Chebyshev wave-packet propagation method from quantum chemistry and efficiently incorporates the Fermi-Dirac statistics that is needed for equilibrium quantum condensed matter systems. The computational cost of EPOCH scales only linearly in the system degrees of freedom, generating an extremely efficient algorithm also for very large systems. We demonstrate the power of the EPOCH method by calculating the time evolution of an excitation near a superconductor–normal metal interface in two and three dimensions, capturing transmission as well as normal and Andreev reflections.
Isocurvature fluctuations, where the relative number density of particle species spatially varies, can be generated from initially adiabatic, or curvature, fluctuations if the various species fall out of or were never in thermal equilibrium. The freezing of the thermal relic dark matter abundance is one such case, but for modes that are still outside the horizon the amplitude is highly suppressed and originates from the small change in the local expansion rate due to the local space curvature produced by the curvature fluctuation. We establish a simple separate-universe method for calculating this generation that applies to both freeze-in and freeze-out models, identify three critical epochs for this process, and give general scaling behaviors for the amplitude in each case: the freezing epoch, the kinetic decoupling epoch and matter-radiation equality. Freeze-out models are typically dominated by spatially modulated annihilation from the latter epochs and can generate much larger isocurvature fluctuations compared with typical freeze-in models, albeit still very small and observationally allowed by cosmic microwave background measurements. Here, we illustrate these results with concrete models where the dark matter interactions are vector or scalar mediated.
A model is presented of the trapped electron environment of solar minimum conditions. Solar maximum models have been presented for the inner radiation zone (AE-5 1967), and for the outer radiation zone (AE-4 1967). The present solar minimum model consists of an inner zone model (AE-5 1975 Projected) with an epoch of 1975, and an outer zone model with an epoch of 1964. With only minor modifications this latter model is identical to the AE-4 1964 model presented previous. The model, however, has not previously been issued in computer form. AE-4 1964 is based upon satellite data, while the inner zone solar minimum model AE-5 1975 Projected consists entirely of extrapolations from AE-5 1967. While the two components of the solar minimum model have epochs 11 years part, it is assumed that any differences between the successive solar minima are smaller than the model error, and the complete model is associated with an epoch of 1975.
Sources of astrophysical evidence necessary to verify a cosmological model are reviewed. Cosmological history of the universe is divided into four epochs, each unique in its physical conditions related to observability at present. The current epoch, started after recombination of hydrogen in the universe, offers the most in observability. In earlier epochs, verifiable astrophysical evidence gradually disappeared. It seems that no astrophysical evidence has been left behind from the singularity epoch of the Universe. The gradual disappearance of astrophysical evidence ascertainable at present is the result of physical conditions structured within the cosmological models, hence indicating certain inherent weaknesses of cosmology as a verifiable physical theory.
The giant radio galaxy NGC 6251 is a particularly good object for observational tests of relativistic jet models. Due to its high declination and approximately 0.5 Jy radio nucleus, high-quality Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) images of the central regions of the source can be made with northern hemisphere arrays. In addition, the large-scale radio morphology strongly suggests that the radio axis lies close to the plane of the sky, so Doppler boosting should be less extreme than in the core-dominated superluminal sources. Earlier 18 cm VLBI observations of NGC 6251 revealed an unexpectedly large jet/counterjet brightness ratio and small transverse motion of a feature in the parsec-scale jet. These early results are difficult to reconcile with the simplest symmetric relativistic jet models. In this paper we present a third-epoch 18 cm VLBI image of the parsec-scale radio jet in NGC 6251, and compare jet morphology over a 5 year time span. The jet shows a minor brightness peak at nearly the same distance from the core as the '25 mas knot' seen in the first- and second-epoch VLBI images. This feature is much less pronounced in the third epoch, and a relatively bright, new knot has appeared approximately 12 mas from the core. If this new component had a constant brightness during the 5 years separating the first and third observing epochs, then it must have moved away from the core with an apparent speed of at least 1.2c (compared with an upper limit of 0.23c for motion of the 25 mas knot). However, we cannot yet rule out a local brightening of the inner jet in favor of a new moving component. We determine a lower limit for the jet/couterjet brightness ratio of 100:1 within 6 mas of the core. We also present a new Very Large Array (VLA) image of the kpc-scale jet with 3 sec resolution, made from data obtained during the VLBI observations. The rate of decrease in jet surface brightness from parsec to kiloparsec scales is similar to jets in known superluminal radio sources.
We have used neutron monitor data obtained at Deep River and Huancayo as well as the vertical underground telescope data obtained at Embudo to compute the cosmic ray transverse gradient (G(sub theta)) for the 1965 to 1990 period. The computed mean value of G(sub theta) for a given qA epoch, changes sign with the change in the solar magnetic polairty in accordance with the predictions of some contemporary hypotheses. Also, we find that the magnitude of G(sub theta) undergoes a significant time variation during a given polarity epoch. It has the largest value near the solar polar field reversal epoch boundaries, when magnetic polarity in the solar northern hemisphere is positive (qA greater than O). For each of the three solar polar field reversals, the change in the magnitude of G(sub theta) is steeper across the epoch boundaries. There is a good correlation between G(sub theta) and the tilt angle of the helisopheric neutral current sheet (HNCS). Our results are in agreement with the reported piecemeal measurements of the latitudinal gradient made by spacecrafts, at different times, at lower primary energies, at far off distances from Earth's orbit. As such, their global significace is appreciable. Even so, it is not clear yet how these findings reflect upon the drift hypothesis in its present form. However, they do affirm the important role played by the tilt angle of HNCS in the modulation processes.