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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Sensor Reduction for Diversion Detection in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors are designed as a smaller, cheaper, and safer alternative to traditional nuclear power plants. Their non-traditional characteristics and prospect of mass production and deployment will likely require new approaches to nuclear safeguards. The primary proliferation concern with microreactors is the diversion of fuel material. Such diversion may produce measurable defects in key physical attributes like neutron flux, which may in turn be detectable using machine learning models. Preliminary work has demonstrated this ability for modeled nominal and diversion scenarios using large quantities of energy integrated neutron flux data. In practice, the number of available sensors for such measurements will be limited and energy integrated flux information will not be available. This work explores the ability of tree-based gradient boosted ensemble models to classify a given microreactor core is nominal or diversion, and determine the number of fuel pins diverted in the case of diversion with reduced numbers of sensors and more realistic detector responses. Classification accuracy of greater than 98% and regression errors as low as 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved with as few as 15 sensors, compared to 99% and 4.1% with a maximum of 240 sensors.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Newton versus the machine: solving the chaotic three-body problem using deep neural networks

ABSTRACT Since its formulation by Sir Isaac Newton, the problem of solving the equations of motion for three bodies under their own gravitational force has remained practically unsolved. Currently, the solution for a given initialization can only be found by performing laborious iterative calculations that have unpredictable and potentially infinite computational cost, due to the system’s chaotic nature. We show that an ensemble of converged solutions for the planar chaotic three-body problem obtained using an arbitrarily precise numerical integrator can be used to train a deep artificial neural network (ANN) that, over a bounded time interval, provides accurate solutions at a fixed computational cost and up to 100 million times faster than the numerical integrator. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of training an ANN using converged solutions from an arbitrary precise integrator, relative to solutions computed by a conventional fixed precision integrator, which can introduce errors in the training data, due to numerical round-off and time discretization, that are learned by the ANN. Our results provide evidence that, for computationally challenging regions of phase space, a trained ANN can replace existing numerical solvers, enabling fast and scalable simulations of many-body systems to shed light on outstanding phenomena such as the formation of black hole binary systems or the origin of the core collapse in dense star clusters.

Breen, Philip G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Containers for Massive Ensemble of I/O Bound Hierarchical Coupled Simulations

We present our experience using containers to scale up a massive ensemble of coupled I/O bound workloads on the NERSC Cori supercomputer. We describe the design of a hierarchical simulation structure using the Integrated Plasma Simulator (IPS) that enables the flexible execution of coupled simulations at the system, node, and core level using the same coupling abstraction and API. The hierarchical design allows for the node-level execution to be efficiently executed using containers while not impacting the structure of the simulation at the system level. We demonstrate the viability of the approach by presenting experimental results from applications in coupled fusion plasma simulations that illustrate the performance impact of using containers to deploy the node-level workloads, in conjunction with the user mountable XFS file systems to ameliorate the load on the Lustre parallel file system. We also present results from production runs showing the ability of the ensemble simulations to scale to hundreds of Cori Haswell nodes, with little or no overhead.

Elwasif, Wael↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wormholes from heavy operator statistics in AdS/CFT

We construct higher dimensional Euclidean AdS wormhole solutions that reproduce the statistical description of the correlation functions of an ensemble of heavy CFT operators. We consider an operator which effectively backreacts on the geometry in the form of a thin shell of dust particles. Assuming dynamical chaos in the form of the ETH ansatz, we demonstrate that the semiclassical path integral provides an effective statistical description of the microscopic features of the thin shell operator in the CFT. The Euclidean wormhole solutions provide microcanonical saddlepoint contributions to the cumulants of the correlation functions over the ensemble of operators. We finally elaborate on the role of these wormholes in the context of non-perturbative violations of bulk global symmetries in AdS/CFT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles

Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RASPA3

RASPA3, a molecular simulation code for computing adsorption and diffusion in nanoporous materials and thermodynamic and transport properties of fluids. It implements force field based classical Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics in various ensembles. RASPA3 is rewritten from the ground up in C++23 with speed and code readability in mind. Transition-matrix Monte Carlo is added to compute the density of states and free energies. The Monte Carlo code for rigid molecules is based on quaternions, and the atomic positions needed in the energy evaluation are recreated from the center of mass position and quaternion orientation. The expanded ensemble methodology for fractional molecules, with a scaling parameter λ between 0 and 1, now also keeps track of analytic expressions of dU/dλ, allowing independent verification of the chemical potential using thermodynamic integration. The source code is freely available under the MIT license on GitHub.

Dubbeldam, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Ensemble Refinement of Protein Structures in High Resolution Electron Microscopy Density Maps with Radical Augmented Molecular Dynamics Flexible Fitting

Recent advances in cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) have enabled modeling macromolecular complexes that are essential components of the cellular machinery. The density maps derived from cryo-EM experiments are often integrated with manual, knowledge or artificial intelligence driven, and physics-guided computational methods to build, fit, and refine molecular structures. Going beyond a single stationary- structure determination scheme, it is becoming more common to interpret the experimental data with an ensemble of models, which contributes to an average observation. Hence, there is a need to decide on the quality of an ensemble of protein structures on-the-fly, while refining them against the density maps. Here, we introduce such an adaptive decision making scheme during the molecular dynamics flexible fitting (MDFF) of biomolecules. Using RADICAL-Cybertools, and the new RADICAL augmented MDFF implementation (R-MDFF) is examined in high-performance computing environments for refinement of two protein systems, Adenylate Kinase and Carbon Monoxide Dehydrogenase. For the test cases, use of multiple replicas in flexible fitting with adaptive decision making in R-MDFF improves the overall correlation to the density by 40% relative to the refinements of the brute-force MDFF. The improvements are particularly significant at high, 2 - 3 Å, map resolutions. More importantly, the ensemble model captures key features of biologically relevant molecular dynamics that is inaccessible to a single-model interpretation. Finally, the pipeline is applicable to systems of growing sizes, which is demonstrated using ensemble refinement of capsid proteins from Chimpanzee adenovirus. The overhead for decision making remaining low and robust to computing environments. The software is publicly available on GitHub and includes a short user guide to install the R-MDFF on different computing environments, from local Linux based workstations to High Performance Computing (HPC) environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ice Supersaturation Variability in Cirrus Clouds: Role of Vertical Wind Speeds and Deposition Coefficients

Abstract Aircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2024

A principle of maximum ignorance for semiclassical gravity

The principle of maximum ignorance posits that the coarse-grained description of a system is maximally agnostic about its underlying microscopic structure. We briefly review this principle for random matrix theory and for the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis. We then apply this principle in holography to construct ensembles of random mixed states. This leads to an ensemble of microstates which models our microscopic ignorance, and which on average reproduces the effective semiclassical physics of a given bulk state. We call this ensemble the state-averaging ansatz. The output of our model is a prediction for semiclassical contributions to variances and higher statistical moments over the ensemble of microstates. The statistical moments provide coarse-grained — yet gravitationally non-perturbative — information about the microstructure of the individual states of the ensemble. We show that these contributions exactly match the on-shell action of known wormhole configurations of the gravitational path integral. These results strengthen the view that wormholes simply parametrize the ignorance of the microstructure of a fundamental state, given a fixed semiclassical bulk description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coherent Spins in van der Waals Semiconductor GeS 2 at Ambient Conditions

Optically active spin defects in van der Waals (vdW) materials have emerged as versatile quantum sensors, enabling applications for a wide range of quantum phenomena in condensed matter systems. Their ease of exfoliation and compatibility with device integration make them promising candidates for future quantum technologies. Here we report the observation and room-temperature coherent control of ensemble spin defects in the high-temperature crystalline phase of germanium disulfide (β-GeS 2 ), a two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor with low nuclear spin density. The defects exhibit spin-1/2 behavior, and their dynamics can be explained by a weakly coupled spin-pair model. We implement dynamical decoupling techniques to extend the coherence time (T 2 ) by a factor of 20. Finally, we use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to estimate the structures and spin densities of two possible spin defect candidates. This work will help to expand the field of quantum sensing with spin defects in 2D materials.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗