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At least 145 records · Page 8

Precipitation Processes Developed During ARM (1997), TOGA COARE (1992) GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): Consistent 3D, Semi-3D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D) have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. IN these 3D simulators, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical clouds systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Center. At Goddard, a 3D cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM, and KWAJEX using a 512 by 512 km domain (with 2-km resolution). The result indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulation. The major objective of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parametrization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budget, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Remote Sensing Data from CLARET: A Prototype Cart Data Set

A data set containing radiation, meteorological, and cloud sensor observations is documented. It was prepared for use by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and other interested scientists. These data are a precursor of the types of data that ARM Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) sites will provide. The data are from the Cloud Lidar And Radar Exploratory Test (CLARET) conducted by the Wave Propagation Laboratory during autumn 1989 in the Denver-Boulder area of Colorado primarily for the purpose of developing new cloud-sensing techniques on cirrus. After becoming aware of this experiment, ARM scientists requested archival of subsets or the data to assist in the developing ARM program. Five CLARET cases were selected: two with cirrus, one with stratus, one with mixed-phase clouds, and one with clear skies. The cases range from 2 to 9.5 h in length. A pyranometer, pyrgeometer, pyrheliometer, and an infrared radiometer constituted the ensemble of instruments that provided surface radiation data. A lidar, radar, and ceilometer observed the cloud geometrical structure, and visual reports and all-sky camera observations were assimilated to provide cloud cover data. Radiosondes, wind profiler, RASS (profiling virtual temperature), microwave radiometers (observing column integrated liquid water and water vapor), and standard surface measurements provided meteorological data. Satellite data from the stratus case and one cirrus case were analyzed for statistics on cloud cover and top height. The main body of the selected data are available on diskette from the Wave Propagation Laboratory or Los Alamos National Laboratory. In addition to documenting the data set, this report describes CLARET and gives a bibliography of publications associated with the project. Some preliminary results of CLARET' research are also summarized. Simultaneous CO 2 lidar and radar backscatter measurements were shown to provide estimates of the effective radius of ice particles. Simultaneous radar and infrared radiometer data appear useful for estimating column-integrated numbers and average sizes of ice cloud particles. Ice water content obtained with this method compared favorably with values from another empirical technique using radar data alone. Depolarization of the CO 2 lidar signal from ice clouds was surprisingly small, suggesting that calculation of backscatter from nonspherical particles for this lidar is a tractable problem. Examples are also cited of CO 2 lidar measurements of the effective radius of water cloud drop size distributions and of inference of the size of pristine ice crystals that assume a particular orientation in the air. These parameters are all important to radiative transfer through clouds.

Clouds (Meteorology)↗

New Technology for the Fire Attire

Although little can be done to reduce the risks of firefighting, something can be done to curb the injuries and fatalities. This is the goal of Project FIRES, a program jointly sponsored by NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's U.S. Fire Administration with technical management provided by Marshall Space Flight Center. Project FIRES (Firefighter's Integrated Response Equipment System) involves applications of advanced materials and design concepts, derived from Apollo to update existing gear which does not adequately protect against many of the hazards encountered in fire suppression activities. A major focus of the effort involves application to the FIRES ensemble of lightweight, fire-resistant, heat-protective materials originally developed for use in astronauts' space suits or in spacecraft components which require thermal protection. Data from the fourteen municipal fire departments participating in the field evaluation will form a basis for development of new nationwide protective ensemble students.

Source record↗

Evaluating the Global Water and Energy Cycles in Reanalyses Using Ensemble Spread

Reanalyses provide continuous observation based global data over weather and climate time scales through observational assimilation. Ensemble forecasts are a component of modern data assimilation systems, providing information to the analysis process. Storing this spread over the duration of a climate reanalysis will provide insight to the variations of the model that underlies the reanalysis data. Global water and energy cycles (WECs) are a critical aspect of both weather and climate, yet there are some large gaps in the observation of key components as well as their representation in models and reanalyses. NASA’s Water and Energy cycle Studies (NEWS) program is developing a corrected and balanced budget data set that is closed at monthly and regional scales during the 21st century, so far. In this paper, we will evaluate reanalysis WEC components against the initial NEWS collection of observation, but integrate the analysis spread from the reanalysis data assimilation as a new perspective on the evaluation. The initial evaluation will cover a few more recent years using ERA5 10 member spread. As the GMAO’s production of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 21st Century (MERRA-21C) progresses, the effort will include the MERRA-21C 32 member spread. Ultimately, we will explore the potential of the ensemble spread as a measure of uncertainty in the reanalysis.

Michael Bosilovich↗

En route noise levels from propfan test assessment airplane

The en route noise test was designed to characterize propagation of propfan noise from cruise altitudes to the ground. In-flight measurements of propfan source levels and directional patterns were made by a chase plane flying in formation with the propfan test assessment (PTA) airplane. Ground noise measurements were taken during repeated flights over a distributed microphone array. The microphone array on the ground was used to provide ensemble-averaged estimates of mean flyover noise levels, establish confidence limits for those means, and measure propagation-induced noise variability. Even for identical nominal cruise conditions, peak sound levels for individual overflights varied substantially about the average, particularly when overflights were performed on different days. Large day-to-day variations in peak level measurements appeared to be caused by large day-to-day differences in propagation conditions and tended to obscure small variations arising from operating conditions. A parametric evaluation of the sensitivity of this prediction method to weather measurement and source level uncertainties was also performed. In general, predictions showed good agreement with measurements. However, the method was unable to predict short-term variability of ensemble-averaged data within individual overflights. Although variations in absorption appear to be the dominant factor in variations of peak sound levels recorded on the ground, accurate predictions of those levels require that a complete description of operational conditions be taken into account. The comprehensive and integrated methods presented in this paper have adequately predicted ground-measured sound levels. On average, peak sound levels were predicted within 3 dB for each of the three different cruise conditions.

Garber, Donald P.↗

Precipitation Processes Developed During ARM (1997), TOGA COARE (1992), GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): Consistent 2D, Semi-3D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NACAR) and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center . At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE, SCSMEX and KWAJEX using 512 by 512 km domain (with 2 km resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the same observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main focusing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used at CSU showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to assess the performance of the super-parameterization technique, (2) calculate and examine the surface energy (especially radiation) and water budgets, and (3) identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Tao, W-K.↗

Use of the surface wind field as a predictor of thunderstorms and cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

The convergence-lightning nowcasting method that began to be operationally tested and evaluated by USAF personnel at the KSC in 1986 uses surface convergence, especially the areal average, to identify the potential for new thunderstorm growth. When this areal method fails, normalized cell convergence, which is defined as the integral of cellular convergence with respect to its area, can be used as a complementary technique in association with the areal one. A detailed examination is conducted for one day, and the relationship of normalized cell convergence to lightning flash counts is examined in a 68-day ensemble.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Project trades model for complex space missions

A Project Trades Model (PTM) is a collection of tools/simulations linked together to rapidly perform integrated system trade studies of performance, cost, risk, and mission effectiveness. An operating PTM captures the interactions between various targeted systems and subsystems through an exchange of computed variables of the constituent models. Selection and implementation of the order, method of interaction, model type, and envisioned operation of the ensemble of tools rpresents the key system engineering challenge of the approach. This paper describes an approach to building a PTM and using it to perform top-level system trades for a complex space mission. In particular, the PTM discussed here is for a future Mars mission involving a large rover.

web services↗

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work on generalized covariance analysis methods. This prior work allowed for partitioning of the state space into "solve-for" and "consider" parameters, allowed for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator s anchor time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the "variance sandpile" and the "sensitivity mosaic," and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

This talk presents a comprehensive approach to filter modeling for generalized covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work that allowed for partitioning of the state space into solve-for'' and consider'' parameters, accounted for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and textita priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator's epoch time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the variance sandpile'' and the sensitivity mosaic,'' and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Navagation↗

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

This talk presents a comprehensive approach to filter modeling for generalized covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work that allowed for partitioning of the state space into solve-for'' and consider'' parameters, accounted for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and textita priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator's epoch time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the variance sandpile'' and the sensitivity mosaic,'' and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

n/a↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins,". As described in Kumar et al., 2007, and demonstrated in Case et al., 2008, and Santanello et al., 2009, LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling the enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation as described in Peters-Lidard et al. (2008) and Santanello et al. (2007), who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs. LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation (Kumar et al., 2008) using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature. Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation. Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeoroogical modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Physical retrieval of precipitation water contents from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Part 1: A cloud ensemble/radiative parameterization for sensor response (report version)

The physical retrieval of geophysical parameters based upon remotely sensed data requires a sensor response model which relates the upwelling radiances that the sensor observes to the parameters to be retrieved. In the retrieval of precipitation water contents from satellite passive microwave observations, the sensor response model has two basic components. First, a description of the radiative transfer of microwaves through a precipitating atmosphere must be considered, because it is necessary to establish the physical relationship between precipitation water content and upwelling microwave brightness temperature. Also the spatial response of the satellite microwave sensor (or antenna pattern) must be included in the description of sensor response, since precipitation and the associated brightness temperature field can vary over a typical microwave sensor resolution footprint. A 'population' of convective cells, as well as stratiform clouds, are simulated using a computationally-efficient multi-cylinder cloud model. Ensembles of clouds selected at random from the population, distributed over a 25 km x 25 km model domain, serve as the basis for radiative transfer calculations of upwelling brightness temperatures at the SSM/I frequencies. Sensor spatial response is treated explicitly by convolving the upwelling brightness temperature by the domain-integrated SSM/I antenna patterns. The sensor response model is utilized in precipitation water content retrievals.

Olson, William S.↗

SYNTHESIS OF NOVEL ALL-DIELECTRIC GRATING FILTERS USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS

We are concerned with the design of inhomogeneous, all dielectric (lossless) periodic structures which act as filters. Dielectric filters made as stacks of inhomogeneous gratings and layers of materials are being used in optical technology, but are not common at microwave frequencies. The problem is then finding the periodic cell's geometric configuration and permittivity values which correspond to a specified reflectivity/transmittivity response as a function of frequency/illumination angle. This type of design can be thought of as an inverse-source problem, since it entails finding a distribution of sources which produce fields (or quantities derived from them) of given characteristics. Electromagnetic sources (electric and magnetic current densities) in a volume are related to the outside fields by a well known linear integral equation. Additionally, the sources are related to the fields inside the volume by a constitutive equation, involving the material properties. Then, the relationship linking the fields outside the source region to those inside is non-linear, in terms of material properties such as permittivity, permeability and conductivity. The solution of the non-linear inverse problem is cast here as a combination of two linear steps, by explicitly introducing the electromagnetic sources in the computational volume as a set of unknowns in addition to the material unknowns. This allows to solve for material parameters and related electric fields in the source volume which are consistent with Maxwell's equations. Solutions are obtained iteratively by decoupling the two steps. First, we invert for the permittivity only in the minimization of a cost function and second, given the materials, we find the corresponding electric fields through direct solution of the integral equation in the source volume. The sources thus computed are used to generate the far fields and the synthesized triter response. The cost function is obtained by calculating the deviation between the synthesized value of reflectivity/transmittivity and the desired one. Solution geometries for the periodic cell are sought as gratings (ensembles of columns of different heights and widths), or combinations of homogeneous layers of different dielectric materials and gratings. Hence the explicit unknowns of the inversion step are the material permittivities and the relative boundaries separating homogeneous parcels of the periodic cell.

Zuffada, Cinzia↗

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗