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NASA NTRS2008

An Overview of the NASA Spring/Summer 2008 Arctic Campaign - ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites)

ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) is a major NASA led airborne field campaign being performed in the spring and summer of 2008 at high latitudes (http://cloud1.arc.nasa.gov/arctas/). ARCTAS is a part of the International Polar Year program and its activities are closely coordinated with multiple U. S. (NOAA, DOE), Canadian, and European partners. Observational data from an ensemble of aircraft, surface, and satellite sensors are closely integrated with models of atmospheric chemistry and transport in this experiment. Principal NASA airborne platforms include a DC-8 for detailed atmospheric composition studies, a P-3 that focuses on aerosols and radiation, and a B-200 that is dedicated to remote sensing of aerosols. Satellite validation is a central activity in all these platforms and is mainly focused on CALIPSO, Aura, and Aqua satellites. Major ARCTAS themes are: (1) Long-range transport of pollution to the Arctic including arctic haze, tropospheric ozone, and persistent pollutants such as mercury; (2) Boreal forest fires and their implications for atmospheric composition and climate; (3) Aerosol radiative forcing from arctic haze, boreal fires, surface-deposited black carbon, and other perturbations; and (4) Chemical processes with focus on ozone, aerosols, mercury, and halogens. The spring deployment (April) is presently underway and is targeting plumes of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution and dust from Asia and North America, arctic haze, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and ozone photochemistry involving HOx and halogen radicals. The summer deployment (July) will target boreal forest fires and summertime photochemistry. The ARCTAS mission is providing a critical link to enhance the value of NASA satellite observations for Earth science. In this talk we will discuss the implementation of this campaign and some preliminary results.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Convective precipitation retrievals from space-borne dual frequency (Ka- and W-band) radar observations

The 2017 Decadal Survey highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions that led to the inclusion aerosols (A), clouds, convection, and precipitation (CCP) in the list of designated observables (DOs) to be pursued within the decade following the survey. Multiple observing system architectures were considered during the NASA A-CCP study, and dual frequency Ka-W band radars have been identified as components of the most likely architectures due to their ability to significantly contribute to the achievement of the science objectives and their synergy with other essential instruments. We present an algorithm to estimate convective precipitation from dual frequency, Ka- and W-band, observations applicable to the observing system architectures considered in the A-CCP study. The algorithm is based on the radar profiling algorithm used within the operational NASA GPM combined algorithm but features an additional module that makes the retrieval problem well-posed in cases of severe attenuation and potential loss of signal below the freezing level. The additional module is developed from GPM combined retrievals and consists of a procedure that generates an ensemble of potential retrievals consistent with the portions of the Ka-band and W-band observation profiles above the noise level. The ensemble solution is refined based on estimates of Path Integrated Attenuation (PIA) from the Surface Reference Technique (SRT) and radiometric observations.

Mircea Grecu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Ensembles↗

NASA NTRS2023

Robustness of Gridded Precipitation Products for Vietnam Basins using the Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall

The use of satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) have become increasingly prevalent as key inputs to provide regional rainfall for improving hydrological simulations in data–spare regions. This study introduces a new approach – Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CAFR) to evaluate six satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) for eleven basins with different sizes across Vietnam (2007–2015). These SPPs include the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final run Version 6 (GPM IMERGF V6), Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.2, Soil Moisture to Rain (SM2RAIN) – Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) V1.5, Asian Precipitation–Highly–Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) V1901, Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) V2.0, and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) – Climate Data Record (CDR) V1.0. With the proposed CAFR: (1) IMERGF is suggested to have the best performance overall, especially when simulating flood peaks; (2) SM2RAIN–ASCAT demonstrates the best skills in metrics related to the dry season; (3) For streamflow simulations, SPPs' performance is sensitive to basin size, with larger basins showing better performance skills. In this study, we demonstrate the capability of our proposed framework to better understand SPP applications in hydrological modeling.

Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CA↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing dimensionality prediction in hybrid metal halides via feature engineering and class-imbalance mitigation

We present a machine learning (ML) framework for predicting the structural dimensionality of hybrid metal halides (HMHs), including organic-inorganic perovskites, using a combination of chemically-informed feature engineering and advanced class-imbalance handling techniques. This study is motivated by the small and highly imbalanced nature of experimentally available HMH datasets, which limits the applicability and reliability of conventional ML approaches. The dataset, consisting of 494 HMH structures, is highly imbalanced across dimensionality classes (0D, 1D, 2D, 3D), posing significant challenges to predictive modeling. To mitigate this limitation, the dataset was augmented to 1336 samples using the synthetic minority oversampling technique, enabling improved learning of underrepresented dimensionality classes while preserving chemically meaningful feature relationships. We developed interaction-based descriptors designed to capture coupled steric and polarity effects relevant to dimensionality prediction, which are not readily captured by standard single-parameter or composition-only descriptors. These descriptors are integrated into a multi-stage workflow combining feature selection, ensemble stacking, and performance optimization. Our approach significantly improves F1-scores for underrepresented classes, achieving robust cross-validation performance across all dimensionalities. This work demonstrates a generalizable strategy for extracting reliable and interpretable structure–dimensionality relationships from limited experimental data, enabling pre-synthesis screening of organic cations and providing a practical blueprint for small-data ML in hybrid materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radiative heating rate profiles over the southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 biomass burning seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF1) in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96° S, 14.35° W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign alongside aerosol optical properties from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM), profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Idealized experiments using the RRTM with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single-scattering albedo (SSA) demonstrate that shortwave (SW) heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K d -1 depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA, and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave (LW) cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single-scattering albedo assumptions in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of the NASA/MSFC Airborne Doppler Lidar results from San Gorgonio Pass, California

Two days during July of 1981 the NASA/MSFC Airborne Doppler Lidar System (ADLS) was flown aboard the NASA/AMES Convair 990 on the east side of San Gorgonio Pass California, near Palm Springs, to measure and investigate the accelerated atmospheric wind field discharging from the pass. The vertical and horizontal extent of the fast moving atmospheric flow discharging from the San Gorgonio Pass were examined. Conventional ground measurements were also taken during the tests to assist in validating the ADLS results. This particular region is recognized as a high wind resource region and, as such, a knowledge of the horizontal and vertical extent of this flow was of interest for wind energy applications. The statistics of the atmospheric flow field itself as it discharges from the pass and then spreads out over the desert were also of scientific interests. This data provided the first spatial data for ensemble averaging of spatial correlations to compute longitudinal and lateral integral length scales in the longitudinal and lateral directions for both components.

Cliff, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Intercomparison of Model Simulations of the Impact of 1997/98 El Nino on South American Summer Monsoon

The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.

Sea Ice↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017 July Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating Rate Profiles over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the First Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 °S, 14.35 °W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign, alongside aerosol optical properties from MERRA-2 as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Idealized experiments using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single scattering albedo demonstrate that shortwave heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K per day depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Allison B. Marquardt Collow↗

NASA NTRS1972

Resonant diffusion in the presence of strong plasma turbulence.

The diffusion equation which describes the evolution of the average one-particle distribution function for an ensemble of strongly turbulent plasmas is derived. The diffusion tensor is a time integral of the autocorrelation tensor of the fluctuations as observed by particles moving along statistically distributed orbits. These orbits contain the effects of fluctuations and thus differ from those encountered in weak turbulence theory. Two statistical orbit effects quadratic in the strength of the fluctuations affect the magnitude of the diffusion: (a) modification of the ensemble average orbits by the fluctuations, and (b) statistical dispersion in particle orbits about the average. The plasma trajectory equations are used to relate each to the diffusion tensor itself when the turbulence is electrostatic. The diffusion tensor is explicitly evaluated for a strongly turbulent unmagnetized plasma.

Birmingham, T. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytical integration of the tractions induced by non-singular dislocations on an arbitrary shaped triangular quadratic element

Here, an analytical model is proposed to evaluate the nodal force induced by a segment of dislocation upon an arbitrary shaped triangular element. This calculation is required in hybrid methods that associate dislocation dynamics to boundary or finite element to solve simultaneously the evolution of large ensembles of dislocations with complex boundary conditions. Nodal forces are defined as the triple integration of the unbalanced traction field induced by a straight dislocation upon the surface of the element. Following our previous approach (Queyreau et al 2014 Modelling Simul. Mater. Sci. Eng. 22 035004) on a simpler geometry and in the case of linear isotropic elasticity, triple integrals are solved by sequences of integration by parts that exhibit recurrence relations. The traction field is defined and finite everywhere even at the core of dislocations, thanks to the use of the non-singular stress expression formulated by Cai et al (2006 J. Mech. Phys. Solids 54 561–587). The nodal force expressions can be used when considering both a single convolution or double convolution of the Green's function with the core distribution. A solution is also proposed for the case of a semi-infinite segment through the study of the asymptotic behavior of the analytical expressions. The proposed approach is exact and very computationally efficient. The choice of an arbitrary shaped triangular element and quadratic shape functions allow the consideration of complex geometries and comply with automatic meshing procedures. These analytical expressions could also be employed to estimate dislocation interactions with interfaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of a MOT in a sub-millimeter membrane hole

Abstract We demonstrate the generation of a cold-atom ensemble within a sub-millimeter diameter hole in a transparent membrane, a so-called “membrane MOT”. With a sub-Doppler cooling process, the atoms trapped by the membrane MOT are cooled down to 10 $$\upmu$$ μ K. The atom number inside the unbridged/bridged membrane hole is about $$10^4$$ 10 4 to $$10^5$$ 10 5 , and the $$1/e^2$$ 1 / e 2 -diameter of the MOT cloud is about 180 $$\upmu$$ μ m for a 400 $$\upmu$$ μ m-diameter membrane hole. Such a membrane device can, in principle, efficiently load cold atoms into the evanescent-field optical trap generated by the suspended membrane waveguide for strong atom-light interaction and provide the capability of sufficient heat dissipation at the waveguide. This represents a key step toward the photonic atom trap integrated platform (ATIP).

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spin structures and baby universes

We extend a 2d topological model of the gravitational path integral to include sums over spin structure, corresponding to Neveu-Schwarz (NS) or Ramond (R) boundary conditions for fermions. This path integral corresponds to a correlator of boundary creation operators on a non-trivial baby universe Hilbert space, and vanishes when the number of R boundaries is odd. This vanishing implies a non-factorization of the correlator, which necessitates a dual interpretation of the bulk path integral in terms of a product of partition functions (associated to NS boundaries) and Witten indices (associated to R boundaries), averaged over an ensemble of theories with varying Hilbert space dimension and different numbers of bosonic and fermionic states. We also consider a model with End-of-the-World (EOW) branes, for which the dual ensemble then includes a sum over randomly chosen fermionic and bosonic states. We propose two modifications of the bulk path integral which restore an interpretation in a single dual theory: (i) a geometric prescription where we add extra boundaries with a sum over their spin structures, and (ii) an algebraic prescription involving “spacetime D-branes”. We extend our ideas to Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity, and propose a dual description of a single unitary theory with spin structure in a system with eigenbranes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗