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Place-Based Energy Transitions

To move from ambitions to actions, communities need in-depth energy-sector expertise and insight. As a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) research lab, NREL offers unbiased, best-in-class analysis and modeling capabilities supported by decades of scientific and applied research, expertise, and partnerships. This presentation highlights how NREL illuminates pathways to clean, affordable, equitable, secure, and resilient energy systems.

communities↗

Optimizing Energy Use in Pulp & Paper with DOE’s Energy Intensive Industries Resources

The U.S. pulp and paper industry is the third-largest energy consumer in manufacturing, accounting for roughly 10% of sector energy use. Improving energy efficiency reduces operating costs and strengthens competitiveness. To support this effort, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), launched the Energy Intensive Industries (EII) Initiative. A two-year pilot across 45 industrial sites identified more than 4 trillion Btu/year in potential energy savings. This presentation outlines plans for a follow-up technical assistance program tailored to pulp and paper mills. Available resources include a cost-savings scoping tool, implementation planning guidance, and technical support for applying advanced methods such as Pinch Analysis for integrated process-utilities optimization. The session introduces key Pinch Analysis principles and highlights case studies demonstrating measurable improvements. ORNL also seeks industry feedback on barriers to efficiency improvements, including technology gaps and resource needs. DOE’s broader objective is to accelerate productivity and economic competitiveness across U.S. energy-intensive industries.

Kamath, Dipti [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000278739994)↗

A Comprehensive Economic Coal Transition in South Asia

Many countries are considering accelerating their coal transition. A coal transition refers to an energy sector’s shift from a reliance on coal toward an energy mix largely based on cleaner fuels and renewable energy sources. Such a transition is not just related to greenhouse gas emissions, but also encompasses a range of benefits, recognizing that global energy costs and options are changing. Since 2015, proposed new coal power capacity has dropped by three-quarters globally, leaving only a few countries that develop coal-fired power plants at scale (Littlecott et al., 2021). Historic steps were taken at the United Nations Climate Change 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, as countries pledged to stop new coal builds, end international coal financing, phase down and phase out unabated coal use, and transition to clean energy. In South Asia, there have been several indicators suggesting that countries may be open to moving toward a coal transition. For example, the number of coal power plants under development across South Asia has decreased by 87% since 2015 (Littlecott et al., 2021). However, the challenges of assuring a just transition are substantial. Because coal plays a critical role in the energy and economic systems in South Asia, especially India, moving away from coal means realizing a broader country-wide economic and social transition. A comprehensive, integrated transition strategy for each state is thus needed urgently. This report briefly reviews the current trends and policies on coal in South Asian countries, develops a framework for a comprehensive economic coal transition, and assesses the opportunities and challenges of the transition in key countries. Several important findings emerge from the analysis. First, a coal transition can support overall economic growth and stability. Financial advantages to a well-planned coal transition include mitigating the risk of stranded assets and taking advantage of low-cost renewables. As a global coal transition proceeds, funds are being diverted from new unabated coal power plants, and utilization rates are declining. The likelihood that coal assets will become stranded is increasing, and the potential for future losses therefore increases as well. Second, coal imports in South Asia are rising. Of the coal consumed in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, 32% is imported; this number increases to 94% when excluding India (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2021d). This illustrates a serious energy security risk. One example is the recent increase in coal prices in South Asia, to be discussed in Section 2.2.1. A diverse energy portfolio that incorporates local renewable energy can provide resilience in the face of changing commodity prices and availability. Third, the social benefits of a coal transition include positive health impacts and broader economic improvements in job creation, although assuring a just transition may be a challenge. Phasing out or phasing down coal can significantly reduce air pollutant emissions and therefore minimize associated premature mortality and improve life expectancy. Additional societal benefits of a coal transition include the high economy-wide potential for job creation, although it creates challenges in terms of reintegration and resettlement for coal miners and their communities.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Income Verification Strategies for Income-Based Solar Programs

The Inflation Reduction Act has created substantial new programs that support adoption of solar power by low-income households, including the $7 billion Solar For All program and the Low-Income Communities Bonus Credit Program, which increases the investment tax credit for certain types of deployment. In addition, a growing number of states are using solar programs to reduce energy burdens and create energy justice opportunities for low-income households and disadvantaged communities. Verifying the income of participating customers is an important component of these programs. Program managers are seeking strategies to verify a large number of subscribing customers in an accurate, timely, and cost-efficient manner. To help inform program managers, Berkeley Lab investigated how a number of energy and non-energy programs manage income verification. The most common approach is to require proof through tax documents, pay stubs, or other formal income documentation, which can pose an impediment to enrolling eligible customers and create a paperwork burden for administrators. In order to reduce the burden for both the applicant and the program manager, some programs use alternative methods. We identify three common alternative verification methods: -Categorical eligibility: Customers enrolled in other, similar income-verified assistance programs are automatically eligible for enrollment in other income-qualified programs. -Geographic eligibility: Eligibility is based on the customer’s location within a specified area, typically a low-income or disadvantaged community or census tract, and; -“Self-attestation”: The participant claims eligibility with or without further documentation. We describe these options, their pros and cons, give examples of how they are used, and explore how some low-income programs address administrative issues, audits, or other quality control measures. Finally, we explore the risk of mistaken verifications (finding a participant eligible when they are not) in the different strategies. While this memo was initiated by a request relating to income-based community solar programs, the methods are applicable to any program with income eligibility requirements in the energy or non-energy sector. Funding was provided for this research by the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy, through the National Community Solar Partnership.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enabling Advanced Energy Systems for Clean, Secure, and Sustainable Economic Growth Across Asia

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's national laboratories to form the Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia. Led by USAID and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Partnership supports energy sector transformation and the growth of clean, secure, and sustainable energy markets across Asia.

Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia↗

Clean Hydrogen: Energy Carrier, Renewables Enabler, and Sector Coupler to Accelerate the Energy Transition and Meet Climate Goals

Comprehensive, concerted efforts supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) are advancing research and development to demonstrate clean hydrogen production and industrial decarbonization pathways. These pathways enable an economically competitive and environmentally beneficial future energy system across sectors and can address specific applications that are difficult to decarbonize. Initiatives include the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot, H2@Scale, National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, H2NEW: Hydrogen from Next-generation Electrolyzers of Water Consortium, HydroGEN: Advanced Water Splitting Materials Consortium, BioH2 Consortium, HyMARC Hydrogen Materials Advanced Research Consortium, and M2FCT: Million Mile Fuel Cell Truck Consortium.

clean hydrogen↗

Hierarchical Control of Megawatt-Scale Charging Stations for Electric Trucks with Distributed Energy Resources

Electrifying medium- and heavy-duty trucks is critical to decarbonizing the transportation sector. Energy needs of electric trucks will likely require megawatt-scale charging stations, which could significantly stress the electric distribution grid. Distributed energy resources (DER) can alleviate this stress and reduce charging costs with proper management. To that end, this work develops a hierarchical predictive control algorithm for future multi-port megawatt-scale charging stations that can provide real-time energy management for stations, decide charging rates, dispatch energy storage system (ESS), and provide grid voltage support. We integrate three algorithmic components: (i) an energy management optimization (EMO) that provides supervisory control to DER assets and charging loads at minute scale, (ii) a real-time energy management system (RT-EMS) that heuristically compensates for fast disturbances at sub-second scale, and (iii) a model predictive control (MPC)-based battery management system (BMS) that communicates future charging demands to the EMO, to manage the overall megawatt-scale site. Additionally, validation in a controller hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) environment shows that the hierarchical controller can reduce the total energy consumption from the grid by approximately 28% compared to an uncontrolled case for the station configuration in this paper, without impacting charging time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Gateway Cities Unplugged: (em)Powering Affordable Housing (Final Technical Report)

The Gateway Cities Unplugged: (em)Powering Affordable Housing (the “Project”) was launched to address a critical challenge in the U.S. building and energy sectors: enabling multifamily buildings especially those serving low and moderate‑income (LMI) communities to actively support grid modernization through Grid‑Interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB). Multifamily housing represents a large share of national building energy consumption, yet the sector faces persistent barriers to adopting advanced load flexibility technologies, including capital constraints, aging infrastructure, and limited access to demand‑side management tools. This Project sought to overcome those barriers by defining, evaluating, and designing commercially viable GEB technology packages for six representative multifamily properties across Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

interflow: A Python package to organize, calculate, and visualize sectoral interdependency flow data

Many economic sectors rely on an uninterrupted “upstream” supply of a resource to conduct their primary functions, leaving them vulnerable to adverse effects should that resource flow be interrupted or compromised (OECD, 2017; U.S. EPA, 2010). Well-known examples of these relationships include water demand by the energy sector (e.g., thermoelectric cooling for nuclear generation) (Grubert & Sanders, 2018; Webber, 2017) and energy demand by the water sector (e.g., electricity required to treat or move water in the public water sector) (Congressional Research Service, 2017) though many others exist. Being able to calculate and document these interdependencies and evaluate where the greatest cross-sectoral intensities and flows exist can reveal opportunities to enhance the overall network. Despite the implications and potential impacts, however, these interconnections and flows have been historically complex to analyze and understand. The interflow package provides a flexible tool to organize, calculate, and visualize (using Sankey diagrams and other visualizations) sectoral interdependency flows for multiple subsectors and resources. This tool can help decision-makers, researchers, and other audiences more easily pull meaning from these interdependencies to reveal multi-faceted opportunities and risks. interflow can help investigate questions such as (1) which sectors have high cross-resource dependencies, (2) how does demand for a resource in various sectors compare across regions, and (3) where the sectoral and regional opportunities are for enhanced efficiency, security, and resiliency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Finite-time correlations boost large voltage angle fluctuations in electric power grids

Abstract Decarbonization in the energy sector has been accompanied by an increased penetration of new renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such sources differ from traditional productions in that, first, they induce larger, undispatchable fluctuations in power generation and second, they lack inertia. Recent measurements have indeed reported long, non-Gaussian tails in the distribution of local voltage frequency data. Large frequency deviations may induce grid instabilities, leading in worst-case scenarios to cascading failures and large-scale blackouts. In this article, we investigate how correlated noise disturbances, characterized by the cumulants of their distribution, propagate through meshed, high-voltage power grids. For a single source of fluctuations, we show that long noise correlation times boost non-Gaussian voltage angle fluctuations so that they propagate similarly to Gaussian fluctuations over the entire network. However, they vanish faster, over short distances if the noise fluctuates rapidly. We furthermore demonstrate that a Berry–Esseen theorem leads to the vanishing of non-Gaussianities as the number of uncorrelated noise sources increases. Our predictions are corroborated by numerical simulations on realistic models of power grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing and Innovation Circular Economy for Wind Workshop Report

Wind turbine blade waste is anticipated to amount to approximately 2.2 million tons or more by 2050 (more than the equivalent weight of 6 empire state buildings). However, no existing recycling technologies for the composites in wind turbines are currently at cost-parity with landfilling. As such, there is little industrial drive to recycle these materials, so they are currently buried. If it were possible to develop a circular economy for wind blades it could directly reduce material feedstock costs for many composites industries, facilitate the tremendous, anticipated growth of the domestic off-shore wind energy sector, and help the U.S. achieve net-zero manufacturing and energy generation. However, to enable circular economies for wind blades, several questions need to be answered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hydropower Advantages over Batteries in Energy Storage of Off-Grid Systems: A Case Study

Microgrids are decentralized power production systems, where the energy production and consumption are very close to each other. Microgrids generally exploit renewable energy sources, encountering a problem of storage, as the power production from solar and wind is intermittent. This research presents a new integrated methodology and discusses a comparison of batteries and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) as energy storage systems with the integration of wind and solar PV energy sources, which are the major upcoming technologies in the renewable energy sector. We implemented the simulator and optimizer model (HOMER), which develops energy availability usage to obtain optimized renewable energy integration in the microgrid, showing its economic added value. Two scenarios are run with this model—one considers batteries as an energy storage technology and the other considers PSH—in order to obtain the best economic and technical results for the analyzed microgrid. The economic analysis showed a lower net present cost (NPC) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the microgrid with PSH. The results showed that the microgrid with the storage of PSH was economical, with an NPC of 45.8 M€ and an LCOE of 0.379 €/kWh, in comparison with the scenario with batteries, which had an NPC of 95.2 M€ and an LCOE of 0.786 €/kWh. The role of storage was understood by differentiating the data into different seasons, using a Python model. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the capital cost multiplier of solar PV and wind turbines to obtain the best optimal economic solutions.

Guruprasad, Prajwal↗

A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesize the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualize our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasize that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonization of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrializing regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Management Information Systems Technical Resources Report

Guide supports federal facility staff in understanding, designing, procuring, and implementing Energy Management Information Systems (EMIS) as a valuable component of their portfolio-level energy and water planning and management strategies. As a broad and rapidly evolving family of tools that monitor, analyze, and control building energy use and system performance, EMIS tools present significant opportunities for federal sector energy savings and improved operational performance. EMIS are at the forefront of transforming energy management best practices by providing building owners and operators with well-organized building performance and energy consumption data, enabling a host of analytic capabilities. These capabilities include portfolio-wide energy benchmarking, data visualization, and key performance indicator tracking; automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD); artificial intelligence for predictive analytics and control; automated measurement and verification of energy conservation measures; and supervisory control enabling automated system optimization and demand management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗