Using Measured Building Energy Data to Infer Building Type for Urban Building Energy Modeling
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Bass, Brett↗
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Building Energy Modeling (BEM) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) FY21.
Abstract not provided.
Villa, Daniel↗
Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results
Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling
Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modeling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a community of practice in energy-climate modeling has started to form that aims to better integrate energy system models with weather and climate models. In this work, we evaluate the disconnects between the energy system and climate modeling communities, then lay out a research agenda to bridge those disconnects. In the near-term, we propose interdisciplinary activities for expediting uptake of future climate data in energy system modeling. In the long-term, we propose a transdisciplinary approach to enable development of (1) energy-system-tailored climate datasets for historical and future meteorological conditions and (2) energy system models that can effectively leverage those datasets. This agenda increases the odds of meeting ambitious climate mitigation goals by systematically capturing and mitigating climate risk in energy sector decision-making.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
The seasonal CO2 cycle on Mars - An application of an energy balance climate model
Energy balance climate models of the Budyko-Sellers variety are applied to the carbon-dioxide cycle on Mars. Recent data available from the Viking mission, in particular the seasonal pressure variations measured by Viking landers, are used to constrain the models. No set of parameters was found for which a one-dimensional model parameterized in terms of ground temperature gave an adequate fit to the observed pressure variations. A modified, two-dimensional model including the effects of dust storms and the polar hood reasonably reproduces the pressure curve, however. The implications of these results for Martian climate changes are discussed.
James, P. B.↗
Development of Energy Storage: Cost models
Energy storage technologies offer a promising solution to electric grid stability issues associated with the integration of variable renewable generators. The capability to match the electrical power output to instantaneous fluctuations in grid demand is crucial to ensure continuity of service. Including energy storage capability in an integrated energy system (IES) can provide the flexibility needed to meet variable electric demand and reduce the load following demands place on the reactor. In this report, economic data collected for energy storage (ES) technologies are described to support the objective of assessing the profitability of ES integration within the IES framework. In particular, there is a growing interest in thermal energy storage (TES) given its unique capability for long-duration storage for improving electricity reliability at a low levelized cost. It is common practice to evaluate the total lifetime cost and profitability before commercializing new technologies. In this report we identify and examine the models needed to better understand the economics of thermal energy storage. We extend the TES cost model in RAVEN in the context of a balance of plant (BOP) that incorporates thermal storage. To focus the discussion, following a general overview of the most promising TES technologies, we consider a use case that involves a sensible heat, two-tank, molten-salt system. Structural and operational details are reported to identify the source of construction capital expenditure and operation and maintenance cost. A detailed description of the different cost items is provided as well as the cost scaling with different storage capacity and power ratings for capacity optimization purpose. In addition, the capital expenditure and the recurring cost of representative two-tank, molten salt coupled with concentrated solar plants are provided for readers’ reference. The ES use case is noteworthy as it is in the pilot stage of commercialization. We identify those areas that would benefit from an increased economic focus to obtain a more complete compilation of cost data. We also describe the thermal coupling issues that arise from integration of the two-tank molten salt thermal energy storage system with a BOP, which is the subject of our current research. Some components of costs will need to be evaluated through dedicated technoeconomic analysis in future modeling activities using modeling procedures proposed in this report. With the data presented and the procedures described in this report, sufficiently accurate models can be implemented for the solution of both the power dispatch and the capacity expansion problems within the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Overcoming Communications Outages in Inverter Downtime Analysis: Preprint
Inverters are often reported to be the highest-impact failure point in PV systems. This importance is belied by the simplistic assumptions about inverter downtime losses used in industrial energy modeling. Energy models often assume the extent of inverter-related losses is limited to 1% of annual production from scheduled inverter preventative maintenance. In reality, inverter-related production losses are much more variable, although data from large-scale surveys of fielded systems are rare. Here we present a method of detecting inverter downtime events and estimating the associated lost production using inverter- and meter-level power data. Because communications outages are of similar frequency to true production outages, the method pays particular attention to distinguishing communications outages from true production outages. The results of applying the method at fleet-scale are presented and discussed.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
Coupling Noah-Multiparameterization land-surface Model with Energy Research and Forecasting Model
The Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model is a high-performance atmospheric model built on the AMReX adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework, enabling efficient simulations on heterogeneous computing platforms that combine multicore processors with hardware accelerators. To support land–atmosphere interactions within ERF’s AMR-based environment, a land-surface model must be capable of operating directly on hierarchically refined meshes. In this work, we present a methodology for coupling the Fortran-based Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land-surface model with ERF’s C++ codebase. Rather than rewriting Noah-MP, we construct a Fortran–C interoperability layer using CodeScribe, a tool that leverages large language models (LLMs) to automate the generation of interface code. CodeScribe applies structured prompting techniques to generate bindings that support efficient data exchange and function calls between ERF and Noah-MP. The coupling framework also incorporates AMR-aware data handling strategies, allowing NoahMP to operate seamlessly within ERF’s hierarchical mesh structure. This work provides a structured approach for integrating legacy Fortran models into modern C++-based modeling systems using LLM-assisted code generation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Good practices for documenting AI-based studies on energy and buildings
Artificial intelligence has transformed building science research over the past decade, with applications spanning energy modeling, energy prediction, HVAC optimization and controls, fault detection, and occupancy modeling. However, many studies lack adequate documentation of datasets, algorithms, training procedures, and validation methods. Building science research faces additional challenges including inconsistent evaluation metrics, limited generalizability across building types, climates, and significant gaps between experimental studies and deployed systems. This communication provides practical guidance for good practices in documenting and publishing AI-based research following established standards from the computer science and machine learning communities. By adopting frameworks such as Datasheets for Datasets, Model Cards, and standardized reproducibility checklists, researchers can ensure their work meets the rigorous documentation standards necessary for reproducible, comparable, and impactful building science research.
Hong, Tianzhen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
CAD-based Energy & Cost Models Prove Affordable Net Zero Energy Performance for WonderWindows + 24" On-center Framing
Windows are thermally the “weakest link” in the building envelope. Increasing the thermal resistance of windows can make buildings more energy efficient and reduce the cost of electricity needed for conditioning the building. The proper design and placement of framing can also help to reduce the thermal bridging that occurs near the window frame area. This study investigates the energy performance of multi-pane acrylic windows fitting 24" on-center framing. Initial parametric analysis is done for a single zone accessory dwelling unit (ADU). Then, an energy model was developed for three types of wood-framed buildings: townhomes, stacked flats and hotels. A whole building energy simulation is performed for each of these building types in hot-humid Houston, mixed-humid New York, and cold-humid Minneapolis climates. The results show up to a 39% reduction in heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) related electricity consumption for the cold climate compared to the Base case which has window and wall properties based on ASHRAE standard 90.1 2019. In the hot climate, a modest increase in electricity consumption was seen due to an increase in cooling electricity demand. The ADU achieved Net Zero Energy performance in all 3 Climate Zones despite having the highest exterior surface area-to-floor area ratio: the ADU also had the highest PV kW to floor area ratio compared to the other multi-story building types. The townhomes, hotel and stacked flats respectively met 73, 52 and 57 % of electrical use in Houston, 71, 48 and 56 % in New York, and 63, 40 and 53 % in Minneapolis from energy produced by rooftop solar. If 400 W solar panels are used instead of 320 W panel used for energy simulation, it is estimated that in the townhomes, hotel and stacked flats rooftop solar can meet 91, 65 and 71 % of electrical use in Houston; 89, 60 and 70% in New York, and 79, 50 and 66 % in Minneapolis. A preliminary evaluation of cost shows that such superior performance can potentially be achieved at less first cost with this 24"on-center solution than conventional construction. All the building types at the three locations used for simulation had net energy use intensity under 20 kBtu/sf/year with 320 W solar panel and under 17 kBtu/sf/year with 400 W solar panel. Further tailoring of building envelope R-values and window solar heat gain to particular Climate Zone locations for each building type shows promise in reducing the HVAC electricity use that comprises almost half of building energy use.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Comparative Study of Enhanced Geothermal System Supply Curves Across CONUS from Two Temperature Models Using the Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV)
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have had recent breakthroughs within the geothermal sector. These breakthroughs are reflected in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2024 Annual Technology Baseline and will result in updated EGS supply curves (i.e., the available resource capacity relative to cost). Our research uses NREL's Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to compare EGS supply curves across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for two different temperature models: the Stanford temperature model (STM) and the Southern Methodist University temperature model (SMU). The reV model provides the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at a consistent resolution across CONUS, taking into consideration transmission costs and constraints as well as technical exclusions pertaining to sensitive cultural, ecological, or infrastructure locations. In addition to a countrywide analysis of both models, we also conducted a regional analysis of Texas. We observed the STM had, on average, lower temperatures across different depths, resulting in slightly higher mean and median LCOEs as compared to the SMU temperature model at the same depths. In the regional analysis for Texas, however, when we compared only the common points between the two temperature models, the STM had lower median and mean LCOEs compared to SMU due to higher temperatures at depths greater than 5 km.
enhanced geothermal systems↗
Earth System Model Development - Energy Exascale Earth System Model (2020 Principal Investigator Meeting Report)
As part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), the Earth System Model Development (ESMD) program area supports significant research in Earth system model development, including major efforts in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. Convened virtually on October 26–29, the 2020 ESMD-E3SM Principal Investigator (PI) Meeting provided a forum to survey ESMD sponsored research, recent progress made by the ESMD science team and the broader Earth system modeling community within and outside of DOE, foster interactions across ESMD projects, and discuss research gaps and opportunities for future advancements.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Thermal Energy Storage Model Development within the Integrated Energy Systems Hybrid Repository
This publication details newly created energy storage models developed within the HYBRID Modelica repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of concrete, latent heat, and packed-bed thermocline energy storage technologies for deployment in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to cyclically charge and discharge when exposed to time-varying boundary conditions. In addition, low-level surrogate models for some of the thermal energy storage technologies were created using Python. These lower order Python files are much cheaper to run (i.e., computationally faster) and thus operate well when incorporated within the stochastic optimization problems run for the IES program. Moreover, economic data was collected for use within the INL-developed Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). This information is incorporated within the FORCE platform. This work has resulted in creation of systems-level models for concrete, latent heat, and thermocline thermal energy storage systems with associated control systems. Now that these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies (e.g., Storworks Power, EnergyNest) can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Bond Synergy Model for Bond Energies in Alloy Oxides
In this work we introduce a metal-oxide bond-energy model for alloy oxides based on pure-phase bond energies and bond synergy factors that describe the effect of alloying on the bond energy between cations and oxygen, an important quantity to understand the formation of alloy oxides and their composition. This model is parameterized for binary cation-alloy oxides using density-functional theory energies and is shown to be directly transferable to multi-component alloy oxides. We parameterized the model for alloy oxide energies with metal cations that form the basis of corrosion resistant alloys, including Fe, Ni, Cr, Mo, Mn, W, Co, and Ru. We find that isoelectronic solutes allow quantification of pure-phase bond energies in oxides and the calculated bond energy values give sensible results compared to common experience, including the role of Cr as the passive-layer former in Fe–Ni–Cr alloys for corrosion applications. Additionally, the bond synergy factors give insights into the mutual strengthening and weakening effects of alloying on cation-oxygen bonds and can be related to enthalpy of mixing and charge neutrality constraints. We demonstrate how charge neutrality can be identified and achieved by the oxidation states that the different cations assume depending on alloy composition and the presence of defects.
Electrochemistry↗
Convex Optimization of Integrated Power-Gas Energy Flow Model With Applications to Probabilistic Energy Flow
Energy flow calculation is a fundamental problem of the integrated power and gas system (IPGS) operation and planning. However, the nonlinear gas flow model introduces major challenges to the energy flow calculation. In this paper, we propose a tractably convex optimization model to solve the energy flow problem in IPGSs. It is demonstrated that the proposed optimization model has the same optimal solution as the original nonlinear steady energy flow model. Also, piecewise linearization is adopted to tightly linearize the nonlinear objective function of the model, which transforms the formulated convex optimization into a linear program one. Thus, the computation complexity of the proposed energy flow model is significantly reduced as compared with the existing methods. In addition, the proposed model can be extended to probabilistic energy flow estimation. Extensive case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed energy flow model using three IPGSs.
42 ENGINEERING↗
An Adaptive Geometry-Free Thermo-Mechanical Model for Directed Energy Deposition Process Modeling
This presentation describes a novel, geometry-free thermo-mechanical model with adaptive subdomain con- struction to accurately predict the thermal conditions, distortions, and residual stresses throughout the directed energy deposition (DED) process. A novel finite element workflow is designed to con- duct the numerical analysis, based on the multi-app and data transfer capabilities in the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Unlike with traditional methods, the part geometry in this model is not predefined. Instead, it is a combined effect of the processing parameters and material properties. At each time step, the model utilizes a subdomain construction paradigm to model the material deposition. A specialized mesh adaptivity scheme is incorporated to provide an accurate prediction while reducing the overall computational cost. The results generated by the proposed model show general agreement with the experimental measurements for the single track scan with varying processing parameters and demonstrate reasonable predictions for higher material buildups.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
An Advanced Microscopic Energy Consumption Model for Automated Vehicle:Development, Calibration, Verification
The automated vehicle (AV) equipped with the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system is expected to reduce the fuel consumption for the intelligent transportation system. This paper presents the Advanced ACC-Micro (AA-Micro) model, a new energy consumption model based on micro trajectory data, calibrated and verified by empirical data. Utilizing a commercial AV equipped with the ACC system as the test platform, experiments were conducted at the Columbus 151 Speedway, capturing data from multiple ACC and Human-Driven (HV) test runs. The calibrated AA-Micro model integrates features from traditional energy consumption models and demonstrates superior goodness of fit, achieving an impressive 90% accuracy in predicting ACC system energy consumption without overfitting. A comprehensive statistical evaluation of the AA-Micro model's applicability and adaptability in predicting energy consumption and vehicle trajectories indicated strong model consistency and reliability for ACC vehicles, evidenced by minimal variance in RMSE values and uniform RSS distributions. Conversely, significant discrepancies were observed when applying the model to HV data, underscoring the necessity for specialized models to accurately predict energy consumption for HV and ACC systems, potentially due to their distinct energy consumption characteristics.
Ma, Ke↗
Analysis of Distributed Energy Storage as a Core Grid Infrastructure via Production Cost Modeling
Energy storage plays a pivotal role in enabling power system operation with more flexibility and resilience. Unlike current practice that considers energy storages as attached ancillary devices, this paper focuses on storages as a core infrastructure by looking at their spatial distribution in the system. A sensitivity analysis based on production cost modeling is conducted to demonstrate the benefits of distributed energy storages. First, the modeling of energy storages in production cost modeling is presented. Second, potential optimal locations of distributed energy storages in a power system are discussed. Finally, multiple scenarios with various numbers and locations of additional distributed energy storages in the WECC 2030 model are created. The production cost modeling results of these scenarios show that distributed energy storages have higher utilization compared to the centralized ES units and therefore provide significantly more benefits in terms of reduction in generation cost, emission cost, and volatility of location marginal prices. A saturation effect is observed suggesting the selection of optimal locations will further improve the benefits.
Nguyen, Quan H.↗