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138 records · Page 8

Climate change and federal aid disbursements after Hurricane Harvey: an extreme event attribution analysis

The role climate change plays in increasing the burden placed on governments and insurers to pay for recovery has not been extensively explored and is the focus of this study. This study examines the impacts of climate change attributed flooding on federal disaster aid disbursement in Harris County, Texas following Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Our approach uses flood models to estimate the amount of flood damages attributable and not attributable to climate change under two climate change attribution scenarios from peer reviewed studies: 20% and 38% increases in rainfall associated with the hurricane due to climate change. These estimates are combined with census tract-level disbursement data for FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual Assistance (IA) part of the Individuals and Households Program. We employ spatial lag regression models with direct and spatial spillover effects to analyze the relationship between a tract’s flood damages—both attributed and not attributed to climate change—and federal disaster aid. We find that both types of flood damage shape federal aid disbursements, but that climate change attributed damages tend to have larger effect sizes (elasticities) especially for IA. Specifically, for a 1% increase in additional climate change attributed damages per household in a census tract (under the 20% scenario), expected NFIP levels in that census tract are 0.26% higher and IA levels are 0.3% higher. Implications center on federal funding in an era of climate change.

FEMA↗

Seismic Rate Changes Associated with Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Changes in the Cryosphere

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial site in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements, and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier global fiducial site are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE 1deg x 1deg mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007, the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the surface displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes using layered elastic half-space. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the significance of seismic rate changes. Our earlier results suggest statistically significant changes in the background seismic rate associated with large seasonal mass changes. INDEX

Sauber-Rosenberg, Jeanne↗

A dynamic price model based on supply and demand with application to techno-economic assessments of rare earth element recovery technologies

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are essential for sustainable energy technologies. Techno-economic Assessments (TEAs) have been conducted to evaluate innovative approaches to recover REEs from waste streams. However, most TEA studies do not consider the price volatility of REEs, which raises concern over the reliability of the analysis in an unpredictable dynamic market. To address this shortcoming, a dynamic price model is proposed that adjusts REE price based upon supply-demand conditions. The dynamic market behavior is simulated and its effect on a TEA is examined via a case study. The results of the dynamic simulation indicate a growing trend of the market price for REE materials/products. Compared to a conventional TEA that does not consider price dynamics, a significant difference in economic performance metrics is identified from the dynamic TEA results. Finally, the proposed dynamic TEA method is not limited to a specific application and can provide insights for evaluating a broad range of technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Migration of Ga vacancies and interstitials in β – Ga 2 O 3

Pathways and energy barriers for the migration of Ga vacancies (V Ga ) and Ga interstitials (Ga i ) in β–Ga 2 O 3 are explored using hybrid functional calculations and the nudged elastic band method. Considering β–Ga 2 O 3 as primarily being an n-type semiconductor, we focus on defect charge states relevant under such conditions: $V^{3 –}_{Ga}$, Ga$^{3+}_{i}$, and Ga$^{+}_{i}$. Notably, we describe a mechanism by which V Ga can transform between its different split configurations. In all cases, the intermediate state consists of a vacancy split between three Ga sites—a three-split vacancy—which enables passage over a significantly lower energy barrier. This is because it avoids the unfavorable simple vacancy at the tetrahedral Ga site. The proposed mechanism lowers the overall barrier for $V^{3–}_{Ga}$ diffusion along the [001] crystal direction from 1.73 to 0.97 eV, whereas the 2.08 eV barrier for the [100] and [010] directions is unaffected. For Ga$^{3+}_{i}$, we obtain similar overall migration barriers of 0.72, 0.80, and 1.02 eV for the [010], [001], and [100] directions, respectively. Ga$^{+}_{i}$ exhibits a strong preference for diffusion within the large eight-sided channel; the overall migration barrier is 0.92 eV for the [010] direction, and 2.16 eV for the [001] and [100] directions. The limiting step for the two latter directions involves ionization of Ga$^{+}_{i}$ followed by a jump to an adjacent large eight-sided channel as Ga$^{3+}_{i}$. Finally, our results are discussed in light of experimental observations of thermally activated recovery processes in irradiated material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experimental Investigation of Elastodynamic Nonlinear Response of Dry Intact, Fractured and Saturated Rock

Nonlinear elastodynamic response of fractured rocks carries crucial information on fracture features that can be exploited to forecast flow properties, friction constitutive behavior and poromechanical response. Well-controlled laboratory experiments are designed to measure the nonlinear elastodynamic response of Westerly granite in three states: dry intact, dry fractured and saturated fractured. We study the effect of fracturing and saturation in modifying the elastodynamic response of the rock. Each sample is tested at a normal stress level of 15 MPa. We measure the elastodynamic response of an intact L-shaped sample of Westerly Granite subjected to normal stress oscillations of prescribed amplitudes (0.2–1 MPa) and frequencies (0.1, 1, 10 Hz). Ultrasonic waves transmitted across the sample are used to monitor the evolution of wave velocity before, during and after dynamic stressing. Furthermore, the nonlinearity of the elastodynamic response is measured in terms of: (1) the offset in normalized wave velocity; (2) the amplitude of wave velocity fluctuation during the oscillations; and (3) recovery rate of the wave velocity post-oscillation. We observe that the three nonlinearity parameters show a similar trend. Irrespective of the parameter, the nonlinearity measures higher for sample in dry-intact condition than that for dry-fractured and the saturated-fractured sample exhibits smaller nonlinearity than the dry-fractured sample. As expected, the saturated sample exhibits less nonlinearity than the dry intact and fractured samples due to the presence of interstitial fluid and the resulting increased interface stiffness. Conversely, the dry intact rock shows a higher nonlinearity than the dry fractured. We use numerical simulations to show that the presence of fracture significantly alters the strain distribution across the bulk of the sample and only the contacting asperities are highly strained, thus resulting in a decrease in the measured elastodynamic nonlinearity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES STUDY ON ENERGY MATERIALS: THERMOELECTRIC MATERIAL TETRAHEDRITE AND LITHIUM ION CONDUCTOR LiPON

Development of efficient energy materials is critical in order to ease the energy demand and reduce our dependence of fossil fuel. Thermoelectric materials are promising due to their capability of generating electrical power by recovering waste heat. The performance of thermoelectric materials is quantified by a dimensionless figure of merit zT, which depends on their properties such as electrical conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and thermal conductivity. Tetrahedrites, a copper antimony sulfosalt mineral, typified by Cu12-xMxSb4S13, where M is a transition metal element such as Ni, Zn, Fe or Mn, have great potential for thermoelectric application due to their relatively high zT (close to 1 at 700 K), earth-abundance, environmental friendliness, favorable electrical properties, and most importantly intrinsic low lattice thermal conductivity (less than 1 W m-1 K-1) in wide temperature. In addition to energy recovery, reliable energy storage devices are also emerging to relieve the energy demand and improve the efficiency of consuming energy resources. Lithium-ion batteries are known to be reliable and successful electrochemical energy storage devices and appliable in various aspects, including laptops, smartphones and electrical vehicles. Lithium phosphorous oxynitride (LiPON) are widely used as thin-film solid-state electrolytes in Li-ion battery, which is the only demonstrated solid-state electrolyte that is quite stable in direct contact with Li metal at potentials from 0-5 V. However, the structure of LiPON, the effects of N doping, and the origin of its good electrochemical stability remains inconclusive.In this thesis, reliable modeling techniques accompanied with experimental tools, are applied to study the thermoelectric material tetrahedrite and the ionic conductor LiPON, in order to study their structural and dynamical properties. Accurate and efficient density-functional theory (DFT) and density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) methods, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are utilized in order to investigate the structures and properties of these energy materials. The incoherent and coherent atomic dynamics study of tetrahedrite Cu10.5NiZn0.5Sb4S13 provides the origin of softening upon cooling by investigate the motion of Cu12e at different temperatures. The dynamic structure factors in the longitudinal and transverse direction will also be discussed. The Cu movement of Cu-rich tetrahedrite Cu14Sb4S13 is revealed by Cu self-diffusivity, nuclear density map and "nudged elastic band" (NEB). Moreover, we investigate the effect of simulation cell size and basis sets on the DFT-based MD simulation results using tetrahedrite Cu10Zn2Sb4S13 thermoelectric as a model material, showing the advantage of larger cell by accessing smaller Q range. In addition, the low-temperature structural properties of Cu12Sb4S13 is measured by neutron diffraction, which indicates that no cubic to tetragonal transition occurs at metal-semiconductor transition (MST) temperature. Thermoelectric properties such as Seebeck coefficient, electrical resistivity and electrical thermal conductivity will also be investigated. DFTB method is implemented to study the structure and transport properties of Li3PO4 and LiPON, while the exploration of N doping effect is included. Lastly, the LiPON/Li interphase will be revealed in order to study the origin of electrochemical stability

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Three-Gorge Reservoir: A 'Controlled Experiment' for Calibration/Validation of Time-Variable Gravity Signals Detected from Space

With the advances of measurements, modern space geodesy has become a new type of remote sensing for the Earth dynamics, especially for mass transports in the geophysical fluids on large spatial scales. A case in point is the space gravity mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) which has been in orbit collecting gravity data since early 2002. The data promise to be able to detect changes of water mass equivalent to sub-cm thickness on spatial scale of several hundred km every month or so. China s Three-Gorge Reservoir has already started the process of water impoundment in phases. By 2009,40 km3 of water will be stored behind one of the world s highest dams and spanning a section of middle Yangtze River about 600 km in length. For the GRACE observations, the Three-Gorge Reservoir would represent a geophysical controlled experiment , one that offers a unique opportunity to do detailed geophysical studies. -- Assuming a complete documentation of the water level and history of the water impoundment process and aided with a continual monitoring of the lithospheric loading response (such as in area gravity and deformation), one has at hand basically a classical forwardinverse modeling problem of surface loading, where the input and certain output are known. The invisible portion of the impounded water, i.e. underground storage, poses either added values as an observable or a complication as an unknown to be modeled. Wang (2000) has studied the possible loading effects on a local scale; we here aim for larger spatial scales upwards from several hundred km, with emphasis on the time-variable gravity signals that can be detected by GRACE and follow-on missions. Results using the Green s function approach on the PREM elastic Earth model indicate the geoid height variations reaching several millimeters on wavelengths of about a thousand kilometers. The corresponding vertical deformations have amplitude of a few centimeters. In terms of long-wavelength spherical harmonics, the induced geoid height variations are very close to the accuracy of GRACE- recoverable gravity field, while the low-degree (2 to 5) harmonics should be detectable. With a large regional time-variable gravity signal, the Three-Gorge experiment can serve as a useful calibration/verification for GRACE (including the elastic loading effects), and future gravity missions (especially for visco-elastic yielding as well as underground water variations).

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES STUDY ON ENERGY MATERIALS: THERMOELECTRIC MATERIAL TETRAHEDRITE AND LITHIUM ION CONDUCTOR

Development of efficient energy materials is critical in order to ease the energy demand and reduce our dependence of fossil fuel. Thermoelectric materials are promising due to their capability of generating electrical power by recovering waste heat. The performance of thermoelectric materials is quantified by a dimensionless figure of merit zT, which depends on their properties such as electrical conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and thermal conductivity. Tetrahedrites, a copper antimony sulfosalt mineral, typified by Cu 12-x MxSb 4 S 13 , where M is a transition metal element such as Ni, Zn, Fe or Mn, have great potential for thermoelectric application due to their relatively high zT (close to 1 at 700 K), earth-abundance, environmental friendliness, favorable electrical properties, and most importantly intrinsic low lattice thermal conductivity (less than 1 W m -1 K -1 ) in wide temperature. In addition to energy recovery, reliable energy storage devices are also emerging to relieve the energy demand and improve the efficiency of consuming energy resources. Lithium-ion batteries are known to be reliable and successful electrochemical energy storage devices and appliable in various aspects, including laptops, smartphones and electrical vehicles. Lithium phosphorous oxynitride (LiPON) are widely used as thin-film solid-state electrolytes in Li-ion battery, which is the only demonstrated solid-state electrolyte that is quite stable in direct contact with Li metal at potentials from 0-5 V. However, the structure of LiPON, the effects of N doping, and the origin of its good electrochemical stability remains inconclusive. In this thesis, reliable modeling techniques accompanied with experimental tools, are applied to study the thermoelectric material tetrahedrite and the ionic conductor LiPON, in order to study their structural and dynamical properties. Accurate and efficient density-functional theory (DFT) and density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) methods, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are utilized in order to investigate the structures and properties of these energy materials. The incoherent and coherent atomic dynamics study of tetrahedrite Cu 10.5 NiZn 0.5 Sb 4 S 13 provides the origin of softening upon cooling by investigate the motion of Cu12e at different temperatures. The dynamic structure factors in the longitudinal and transverse direction will also be discussed. The Cu movement of Cu-rich tetrahedrite Cu 14 Sb 4 S 13 is revealed by Cu self-diffusivity, nuclear density map and “nudged elastic band” (NEB). Moreover, we investigate the effect of simulation cell size and basis sets on the DFT-based MD simulation results using tetrahedrite Cu1 0 Zn 2 Sb 4 S 13 thermoelectric as a model material, showing the advantage of larger cell by accessing smaller Q range. In addition, the low-temperature structural properties of Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 is measured by neutron diffraction, which indicates that no cubic to tetragonal transition occurs at metal-semiconductor transition (MST) temperature. Thermoelectric properties such as Seebeck coefficient, electrical resistivity and electrical thermal conductivity will also be investigated. DFTB method is implemented to study the structure and transport properties of Li 3 PO 4 and LiPON, while the exploration of N doping effect is included. Lastly, the LiPON/Li interphase will be revealed in order to study the origin of electrochemical stability.

Li, Junchao↗

Energy Barriers for H 2 Uptake and Release by Defects in Boron Nitride

Density functional theory simulations (DFT) have been used in combination with the climbing image nudged elastic band method (CI-NEB) to determine the energy barriers required to dissociate H 2 at four types of h-BN defects and evaluate the potential for reacted H species to hop to adjacent available sites. The defects were selected based on previous work in which ab initio thermodynamics was used to identify specific defects with optimal thermodynamics for reversible H 2 storage, that is, the defects would dissociate molecular H 2 while not binding H species too strongly so that hydrogen release is favorable. The four defects investigated are the N and B monovacancies, which only offer either B or N defective sites respectively, as well as larger cluster vacancy defects named 3V(1B2N) and hexagonal 6V(3B3N), which present a mixture of B and N defect sites available for H binding. While homogeneous H 2 dissociation by B and N monovacancies have energy barriers larger than 0.4 eV, we found that mixed BN terminated defects have energy barrier lower than 0.4 eV for H 2 dissociation. In particular, H 2 dissociation by the hexagonal 6V(3B3N) defect, exclusively made of Frustrated Lewis Pairs (FLPs), is almost barrierless. The energy barrier for subsequent H hopping to available adjacent B or N sites of the defect were also calculated. It was found that the hopping of H species generally involves high energy barriers ranging from 0.26 eV to 2.57 eV. In conclusion, this work completes previous thermodynamic theoretical investigations and provides a more comprehensive picture of H 2 reaction with defective h-BN for potential H 2 storage and recovery.

Sassi, Michel J. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Determining sulfur speciation in oxidatively crosslinked degradable polymers using sulfur K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy

A new family of water-degradable elastic polymers prepared by oxidative crosslinking of the parent polythionolactones shows promise in a broad range of applications, but the compositions of these materials elude conventional analytical methods. Here, in this work, we use sulfur K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy to quantify the amounts of thioether, disulfide, sulfone, sulfate ester, and thionoester in each polymer and to rule out the presence of several other functional groups, including sulfonate, thiosulfonate, sulfate, and sulfoxide. We rationalize this speciation as a function of linker flexibility in the context of sulfinyl cycloaddition reactions and propose a mechanism of aggregation for the oxidized polymers. Our results correlate with swelling ratios but not with porosity nor crosslink density measurements, demonstrating the importance of pairing mechanical and chemical techniques when characterizing heterogeneous organic polymers. Finally, we take advantage of the proximity of the gold M 4,5 -edges to the sulfur K-edge to analyze the binding and reactivity of Au(III) with the crosslinked polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.

Wu, Xiao-Ping↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗