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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Flash flourishing of Northern Hemisphere vegetation and its drivers

Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO 2 , while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing University of Information S↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process‐based models will advance our understanding of “grassy” ecosystems

Abstract Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process‐based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Flexibility and Environmental Tradeoffs Analysis

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

Columbia River↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Screening Level Ecological Exposure Assessment Work Plan

This work plan is part of an effort to complete an updated evaluation of the potential for adverse effects from miscellaneous treatment unit emissions to potential ecological receptors within and surrounding Site 200. It will address potential pathways between air emissions from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Decontamination and Waste Treatment Facility (DWTF), single emission stack, and ecological receptors (i.e., plants and wildlife) present onsite and within a one-mile radius from the DWTF stack. This work plan outlines the procedures by which data collected as part of the previous investigations will be evaluated to assess risks to ecological receptors. It presents the problem formulation, initial conceptual site models, methods for characterizing exposure, toxicity, and risks that will be used if a more detailed “baseline” ecological risk assessment (BERA) is required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial species and intraspecies units exist and are maintained by ecological cohesiveness coupled to high homologous recombination

Abstract Recent genomic analyses have revealed that microbial communities are predominantly composed of persistent, sequence-discrete species and intraspecies units (genomovars), but the mechanisms that create and maintain these units remain unclear. By analyzing closely-related isolate genomes from the same or related samples and identifying recent recombination events using a novel bioinformatics methodology, we show that high ecological cohesiveness coupled to frequent-enough and unbiased (i.e., not selection-driven) horizontal gene flow, mediated by homologous recombination, often underlie these diversity patterns. Ecological cohesiveness was inferred based on greater similarity in temporal abundance patterns of genomes of the same vs. different units, and recombination was shown to affect all sizable segments of the genome (i.e., be genome-wide) and have two times or greater impact on sequence evolution than point mutations. These results were observed in bothSalinibacter ruber, an environmental halophilic organism, andEscherichia coli, the model gut-associated organism and an opportunistic pathogen, indicating that they may be more broadly applicable to the microbial world. Therefore, our results represent a departure compared to previous models of microbial speciation that invoke either ecology or recombination, but not necessarily their synergistic effect, and answer an important question for microbiology: what a species and a subspecies are.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Allometric-kinetic model predictions of concentration ratios for anthropogenic radionuclides across animal classes and food selection

Protection of the environment from radiation fundamentally relies on dose assessments for non-human biota. These dose assessments use measured or predicted concentrations of radionuclides in soil or water combined with Concentration Ratios (CRs) to estimate tissue concentrations in animals and plants, yet there is a paucity of CR data relative to the vast number of potential taxa and radioactive contaminants in the environment and their taxon-specific ecosystems. Because there are many taxa each having very different behaviors and biology and many possible bioavailable radionuclides, CRs have the potential to vary by orders-of-magnitude, as often seen in published data. Given the diversity of taxa, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has categorized non-human biota into 12 representative organisms (ROs), while the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) uses the non-taxon specific categories of terrestrial, riparian, and aquatic animals. The question we examine here is: do these categorizations adequately “represent” the broad diversity of animals? To explore this question, here we analyze an Allometric-Kinetic (A-K) model to calculate radionuclide-specific CRs for common animal classes which are then further subcategorized into herbivores, omnivores, carnivores, and invertebrate detritivores. Comparisons in CRs among animal classes exhibited only small differences, but there was order of magnitude differences between herbivores, carnivores, and especially detritivores, for many radionuclides of interest. These findings suggest that the ICRP ROs and the DOE categories are reasonable, but their accuracy could be improved by including sub-categories related to animal dietary ecology. Finally, comparisons of A-K model predicted CR values to published CRs show order-of-magnitude variations, providing justification for additional studies of assimilation across radionuclides and animal classes.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aligning theoretical and empirical representations of soil carbon-to-nitrogen stoichiometry with process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models

Soil carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry acts as a control over decomposition and soil organic matter formation and loss, making it a key soil property for understanding ecosystem dynamics and projected ecosystems responses to global environmental change. However, the controls of soil C:N and how they respond to increasing pressures from global change agents are not fully understood. The “foundational” controls on soil C:N, namely plant and microbial C:N, have been used to predict soil C:N, but fail to accurately simulate all ecosystems and may be insufficient for predictions under global environmental change. Here we present an “emerging” representation of controls of soil C:N that includes plant-microbe-mineral feedbacks that have been shown to regulate soil C:N. We argue that including representation of these emerging drivers in process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, which include biological N fixation, mycorrhizae, priming, root exudation of organic acids, and mineralogy (including soil texture, mineral composition, and aggregation), will improve mechanistic representation of soil C:N and associated processes. Such improvements will produce models that will better simulate a variety of ecological states and predict soil C:N when global changes modify plant-microbe-mineral interactions. Here, we align our empirical understanding of controls of soil C:N with those controls represented in models, identifying contexts where emerging drivers might be particularly important to represent (e.g., priming and root exudation in nutrient-limited conditions) and areas of future work. Additionally, we show that implementing emerging drivers of soil C:N results in different simulated outcomes at steady state and in response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Our review and preliminary simulations support the need to incorporate emerging drivers of soil C:N into process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, allowing for both theoretical exploration of mechanisms and potentially more accurate predictions of land biogeochemical responses to global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Numerical Modeling Framework for Flocculation and Cohesive Sediment Transport in the Wave Bottom Boundary Layer

Flocculation, a critical process in coastal and estuarine systems, plays a significant role in sediment transport, nutrient cycling, and ecological health. This study develops a cohesive sediment transport modeling framework tailored to the wave bottom boundary layer under dilute and equilibrium conditions, explicitly incorporating flocculation effects via a Population Balance Equation (PBE). Using Direct Numerical Simulation, six baseline cases, each with a distinct sediment concentration profile resulting from a constant settling velocity and critical erosion shear stress, are generated to drive the PBE flocculation model for given floc yield strength and stickiness. Results reveal that flocculation significantly influences sediment concentration profiles promoting three distinct stages, well‐mixed, transition to lutocline, and well‐developed lutocline. At low concentrations with well‐mixed profiles, cohesive floc properties are less significant, and turbulence is a main flocculation driver. In contrast, as concentration increases, cohesive floc properties become crucial, facilitating lutocline formation. Here, the analysis also highlights limitations of depth‐averaged settling velocity as a parameterization. It is suitable for well‐mixed and transitional profiles but fails in well‐developed lutoclines, where empirical formulations that explicitly incorporate turbulent shear rate and sediment concentration better capture variability. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating flocculation effects into sediment transport models to enhance predictions of sediment dynamics in wave bottom boundary layers.

Penaloza‐Giraldo, Jorge A. [Oak Ridge National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing Functional Diversity in a Global Land Surface Model Illustrates Uncertainties Related to Parameter Simplification

Abstract Simulations of the land surface carbon cycle typically compress functional diversity into a small set of plant functional types (PFT), with parameters defined by the average value of measurements of functional traits. In most earth system models, all wild plant life is represented by between five and 14 PFTs and a typical grid cell (≈100 × 100 km) may contain a single PFT. Model logic applied to this coarse representation of ecological functional diversity provides a reasonable proxy for the carbon cycle, but does not capture the non‐linear influence of functional traits on productivity. Here we show through simulations using the Energy Exascale Land Surface Model in 15 diverse terrestrial landscapes, that better accounting for functional diversity markedly alters predicted total carbon uptake. The shift in carbon uptake is as great as 30% and 10% in boreal and tropical regions, respectively, when compared to a single PFT parameterized with the trait means. The traits that best predict gross primary production vary based on vegetation phenology, which broadly determines where traits fall within the global distribution. Carbon uptake is more closely associated with specific leaf area for evergreen PFTs and the leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio in deciduous PFTs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Global Spectra-Trait Initiative: A database of paired leaf spectroscopy and functional traits associated with leaf photosynthetic capacity

Accurate assessment of leaf functional traits is crucial for a diverse range of applications from crop phenotyping to parameterizing global climate models. Leaf reflectance spectroscopy offers a promising avenue to advance ecological and agricultural research by complementing traditional, time-consuming gas exchange measurements. However, the development of robust hyperspectral models for predicting leaf photosynthetic capacity and associated traits from reflectance data has been hindered by limited data availability across species and environments. Here we introduce the Global Spectra-Trait Initiative (GSTI), a collaborative repository of paired leaf hyperspectral and gas exchange measurements from diverse ecosystems. The GSTI repository currently encompasses over 7500 observations from 397 species and 41 sites gathered from 36 published and unpublished studies, thereby offering a key resource for developing and validating hyperspectral models of leaf photosynthetic capacity. The GSTI database is developed on GitHub (https://github.com/plantphys/gsti, last access: 4 January 2026) and published to ESS-DIVE https://doi.org/10.15485/2530733, Lamour et al., 2025). It includes gas exchange data, derived photosynthetic parameters, and key leaf traits often associated with traditional gas exchange measurements such as leaf mass per area and leaf elemental composition. By providing a standardized repository for data sharing and analysis, we present a critical step towards creating hyperspectral models for predicting photosynthetic traits and associated leaf traits for terrestrial plants.

Lamour, Julien [Université of Toulouse (France); U↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chapter 9.12 - Weather, Climatic and Ecological Impacts of Onshore Wind Farms

Wind power is an environmentally sustainable technology that is likely to be part of the solution to the climate change, air pollution, and energy security problems. Despite many positive benefits, the rapid development of wind power has raised concerns about some potential adverse environmental impacts. While converting wind?s kinetic energy into electricity, wind turbines (WTs) modify properties of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) including the vertical profiles and surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, moisture, and trace gases. Given the current installed capacity and the projected installation worldwide, wind farms (WFs) are likely becoming a major driver of manmade land use change on Earth. Hence, understanding WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and assessing potential environmental impacts of WFs are of significant scientific, societal and economic importance. Here we review our progress in assessing potential impacts of onshore wind power on weather, climate and vegetation activity. A consensus is emerging based on observations and modeling studies that WFs cause a local to regional warming effect, particularly at nighttime, while the impacts on precipitation, wind patterns, crop yields and vegetation activity are uncertain. The warming effect results simply from vertical heat redistribution within the ABL due to turbine-enhanced vertical turbulent mixing in the wakes. At the global scale, with a substantial installation of WFs, mesoscale and climate models predicted large regional changes but small global impacts on temperature, while the impacts on precipitation, clouds, wind patterns and large-scale circulation have large uncertainties and are region specific and scale dependent. Despite increasing number of research efforts, our assessment of potential WF impacts is still very limited. Although the WF impacts are mostly local and limited to the near-surface ABL, this is the layer where we live and plants grow. Hence, more studies are needed to improve our understanding of WT-atmosphere-surface interactions and our capability to model and project the weather, climatic and ecological impacts of large WFs.

atmospheric boundary layer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison and multi-model inference of excess risks models for radiation-related solid cancer

In assessments of detrimental health risks from exposures to ionising radiation, many forms of risk to dose–response models are available in the literature. The usual practice is to base risk assessment on one specific model and ignore model uncertainty. The analysis illustrated here considers model uncertainty for the outcome all solid cancer incidence, when modelled as a function of colon organ dose, using the most recent publicly available data from the Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors of Japan. Seven recent publications reporting all solid cancer risk models currently deemed plausible by the scientific community have been included in a model averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model. The models have been estimated with different baselines and presented for males and females at various attained ages and ages at exposure, to obtain specially computed model-averaged Excess Relative Risks (ERR) and Excess Absolute Risks (EAR). Monte Carlo simulated estimation of uncertainty on excess risks was accounted for by applying realisations including correlations in the risk model parameters. Three models were found to weight the model-averaged risks most strongly depending on the baseline and information criteria used for the weighting. Fitting all excess risk models with the same baseline, one model dominates for both information criteria considered in this study. Based on the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Here, our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The ecological assembly of bacterial communities in Antarctic wetlands varies across levels of phylogenetic resolution

Summary As functional traits are conserved at different phylogenetic depths, the ability to detect community assembly processes can be conditional on the phylogenetic resolution; yet most previous work quantifying their influence has focused on a single level of phylogenetic resolution. Here, we have studied the ecological assembly of bacterial communities from an Antarctic wetland complex, applying null models across different levels of phylogenetic resolution (i.e. clustering ASVs into OTUs with decreasing sequence identity thresholds). We found that the relative influence of the community assembly processes varies with phylogenetic resolution. More specifically, selection processes seem to impose stronger influence at finer (100% sequence similarity ASV) than at coarser (99%–97% sequence similarity OTUs) resolution. We identified environmental features related with the ecological processes and propose a conceptual model for the bacterial community assembly in this Antarctic ecosystem. Briefly, eco‐evolutionary processes appear to be leading to different but very closely related ASVs in lotic, lentic and terrestrial environments. In all, this study shows that assessing community assembly processes at different phylogenetic resolutions is key to improve our understanding of microbial ecology. More importantly, a failure to detect selection processes at coarser phylogenetic resolution does not imply the absence of such processes at finer resolutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disentangling natural and anthropogenic effects on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in western US streams

Abstract Stream macroinvertebrate assemblages are shaped by natural and human‐related factors that operate through complex hierarchical pathways. Quantifying these relationships can provide additional insights into stream ecological assessment. We applied a structural equation modeling framework to evaluate hypothesized pathways by which watershed, riparian, and in‐stream factors affect benthic macroinvertebrate condition in the Western Mountains (WMT) and Xeric (XER) ecoregions in the United States. We developed a conceptual model grounded in theory, empirical evidence, and expert opinion to evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) macroinvertebrate assemblages are primarily driven by proximal, in‐stream factors (e.g., water quality and physical habitat); (2) anthropogenic land uses affect macroinvertebrates indirectly by altering in‐stream characteristics; and (3) riparian vegetation cover attenuates land use effects. We tested our model separately on three measures of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage condition: ratio of observed‐to‐expected taxonomic richness (O/E); a multimetric index (MMI); and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT). In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover, in‐stream physical habitat (relative bed stability), and water chemistry (total nitrogen) were the top three predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages, each having over two times the magnitude of effect on macroinvertebrates compared with watershed‐level predictors. In the arid XER, annual precipitation and stream flow characteristics were top predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages and had similar magnitudes of effect as in‐stream water chemistry. Path analyses revealed that land use activities in the watershed and at the stream site degraded macroinvertebrate assemblages indirectly by altering relative bed stability, water quality, and riparian cover/complexity. Increased riparian cover was associated with greater macroinvertebrate condition by reducing land use impacts on stream flow, streambed substrate, and water quality, but the pathways differed among ecoregions. In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages partly through indirect pathways associated with greater streambed stability and reduced total nitrogen concentrations. In contrast, in the XER, watershed‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages through greater specific stream power. Identifying the relative effects of and pathways by which natural and anthropogenic factors affect macroinvertebrates can serve as a framework for prioritizing management and conservation efforts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗