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NASA NTRS2019

Terrestrial Single-Station Analog for Constraining the Martian Core and Deep Interior: Implications for InSight

We used a terrestrial single-station seismometer to quantify the uncertainty of InSight (INterior explorations using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) data for determining Martian core size. To mimic Martian seismicity, we formed a catalog using 917 terrestrial earthquakes, from which we randomly selected events. We stacked ScS amplitudes on modeled arrival times and searched for where ScS produced coherent seismic amplitudes. A core detection was defined by a coherent peak with small offset between predicted and user-selected arrival times. Iterating the detection algorithm with varying signal-to-noise (SNR) ranges and quantity of events determined the selection frequency of each model and quantified core depth uncertainty. Increasing the quantity of events reduced core depth uncertainty while increasing the recovery rate, while increasing event SNR had little effect. Including ScS2 multiples increased the recovery rate and reduced core depth uncertainty when we used low quantities of events. The most-frequent core depths varied by back azimuth, suggesting our method is sensitive to the presence of mantle heterogeneities. When we added 1° in source distance errors, core depth uncertainty increased by up to 11 km and recovery rates decreased by <5%. Altering epicentral distances by 25% added ~35 km of uncertainty and reduced recovery rates to <50% in some cases. From these experiments, we estimate that if InSight can detect five events with high location precision (< 10% epicentral distance errors), that there is at least an 88% chance of core depth recovery using ScS alone with uncertainty in core depth approaching 18 km and decreasing as more events are located.

Angela G Marusiak↗

NASA NTRS2008

Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?

The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.

Sauber, Jeanne M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Oregon Rivers Characterization Tool

DHS’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Oregon State Transportation Systems RRAP project between 2018-2021 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of the state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake (CISA 2021). The project primarily focused on the effects of a CSZ earthquake on the mobility of emergency response efforts into the region. In the event that bridges located at crucial river crossings fail during a CSZ earthquake, rivers will become natural barriers affecting the ability to support response and recovery efforts. The characteristics of rivers (e.g., width, depth, and flow) are critical data to inform planning for the recovery of transportation systems across river barriers and determine reopening times following a CSZ earthquake. As part of the transportation system assessment, an Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) project team developed a River Characterization Tool (RCT) to quantify the physical characteristics of the river system in Oregon, which can be used to inform a system-level analysis of transportation recovery and reopening times. This report mainly discusses approaches, methods, development, and applications of the RCT. The use of the river data generated from this tool for a system-level analysis of transportation recovery is discussed in the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP Resiliency Assessment report (CISA 2021). The primary goal of the RCT is to generate statewide dataset of widths, depths, and flows for all rivers across Oregon to assess the effects of river barriers on emergency response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. The RCT leverages remote sensing data that multispectral sensors collect from satellites, employs a deep learning model to characterize river predictions, and computes river channel geometric dimensions with hydraulic relationships and river predictions. The entire process of river characterization is automated and implemented through the RCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Plate motion in sheared granular fault system

Plate motion near the fault gouge layer, and the elastic interplay between the gouge layer and the plate under stick-slip conditions, is key to understanding the dynamics of sheared granular fault systems. Here, a two-dimensional implementation of the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which merges the finite element method (FEM) and the discrete element method (DEM), is used to explicitly simulate a sheared granular gouge fault system. In this work we focus on investigating the influence of normal load, driving shear velocity and plate stiffness on the velocities and displacements in the direction parallel to the shear direction (x-direction) measured at locations on the upper and lower plates just adjacent to the gouge. The simulations show that during slip phases the magnitudes of the measured velocities on the upper and lower plates are proportional to the normal load and may be inversely proportional to the square root of the plate's shear modulus. Whereas, the driving shear velocity does not show distinct influence on the measured velocities. Additionally, large slip velocities are generally associated with large macroscopic friction coefficient drops. For the models subjected to smaller normal loads, larger shear velocities and with stiffer shear plates, the same magnitude of slip velocity could cause a larger drop of macroscopic friction coefficient. During stick phases, the velocities of the upper and lower plates are respectively slightly greater and slightly smaller than half of the driving shear velocity and are both in the same direction of shear. The shear strain rate of the gouge is calculated from this velocity difference between the upper and lower plate during stick phases and thus the gouge effective shear modulus can be calculated. The results show that the gouge effective shear modulus increases proportionally with normal load, while the influence of shear velocity and plate stiffness on gouge effective shear modulus is minor. The simulations address the dynamics of a laboratory-scale fault gouge system and may aid in revealing the complexities of earthquake frictional dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Crustal Deformation in Southcentral Alaska: The 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake Subduction Zone

This article, for Advances in Geophysics, is a summary of crustal deformation studies in southcentral Alaska. In 1964, southcentral Alaska was struck by the largest earthquake (moment magnitude 9.2) occurring in historical times in North America and the second largest earthquake occurring in the world during the past century. Conventional and space-based geodetic measurements have revealed a complex temporal-spatial pattern of crustal movement. Numerical models suggest that ongoing convergence between the North America and Pacific Plates, viscoelastic rebound, aseismic creep along the tectonic plate interface, and variable plate coupling all play important roles in controlling both the surface and subsurface movements. The geodetic data sets include tide-gauge observations that in some cases provide records back to the decades preceding the earthquake, leveling data that span a few decades around the earthquake, VLBI data from the late 1980s, and GPS data since the mid-1990s. Geologic data provide additional estimates of vertical movements and a chronology of large seismic events. Some of the important features that are revealed by the ensemble of studies that are reviewed in this paper include: (1) Crustal uplift in the region that subsided by up 2 m at the time of the earthquake is as much as 1 m since the earthquake. In the Turnagain Arm and Kenai Peninsula regions of southcentral Alaska, uplift rates in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake reached 150 mm/yr , but this rapid uplift decayed rapidly after the first few years following the earthquake. (2) At some other locales, notably those away the middle of the coseismic rupture zone, postseismic uplift rates were initially slower but the rates decay over a longer time interval. At Kodiak Island, for example, the uplift rates have been decreasing at a rate of about 7mm/yr per decade. At yet other locations, the uplift rates have shown little time dependence so far, but are thought not to be sustainable throughout the several hundred year recurrence time for great earthquake. The nearly 10 mm/yr uplift rate at Seldovia on the Kenai Peninsula is an example.

Cohen, Steven C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters for nonlinear site response analyses: Introducing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique

This study quantifies the effects of epistemic uncertainty in soil parameters on nonlinear (NL) site response analysis (SRA) results, validated against the data recorded at a well-instrumented geotechnical downhole array located in Japan. To this end, a one-dimensional soil column model of the Service Hall Array (SHA) near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is developed using the finite element (FE) program LS-DYNA. The dynamic stress–strain relationship is characterized by a modified two-stage hyperbolic (MTH) NL backbone curve formulation capable of capturing soil behavior at both small- and large-shear strains. The model is then validated against the ground motion recordings to capture the model bias. The uncertainties associated with the shear-wave velocity profile (a small-strain soil property) and soil shear strength (a large-strain soil property) are incorporated in NL SRA to quantify their separate and joint randomization effects on the results. This study proposes using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method as an efficient alternative to commonly used methods, such as Standard Monte Carlo (SMC), to account for uncertainty propagation in such reliability analysis. Both low-intensity and design-level records from the recordings at the SHA are applied to study the contribution of the small- and large-strain NL dynamic soil properties. Results from 46,200 NL FE analyses (23,100 per input motion) are presented. Measured and predicted site response, using recorded ground motions at this downhole array, is compared to assess the significance of soil parameter uncertainty on the observed ground motion dispersions. It is demonstrated that increasing the number of soft realizations and implementing higher level earthquake intensity lead to higher ground motion dispersion. Unlike past studies in randomization of Vs profiles with the SMC method, the LHS method is shown to have no significant effect on the predicted median surface response spectra and amplification factors (AFs) for this case study.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rupture Dynamics Simulations of Shallow Crustal Earthquakes on Reverse Slip Faults

The main goal of this study was to perform dynamic rupture simulations in order constrain the characterization of kinematic rupture models implemented in techniques for simulating strong ground motion for crustal earthquakes. First, we investigated the rupture process of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake by developing a dynamic rupture model on a reverse fault using a trial-and-error technique that produced a slip distribution and near-fault ground motion that matched the recorded ones. The simulations were performed in the frequency range 0-2 Hz, using a 3D staggered grid finite-difference method and a linear slip weakening friction law. Constrained by the observed slip distribution and consistent with dynamic rupture models, the derived kinematic rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake contains areas with relatively large slip rate, representing strong motion generation areas, set against lower amplitude heterogeneous background slip, and a relatively low slip rate in the weak zone of the top-most crust (upper 3km). Second, we performed rupture dynamics modeling to constrain shallow slip characterization in rupture models for strike-slip crustal earthquakes. The objective was to establish general rules about the characterization of slip rate function and slip at shallow depths and in the strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). The simulations of spontaneous rupture were performed in the frequency range 0-2.0Hz, using a 3D staggered-grid finite-difference method and a layer over half-space 1D crustal velocity model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 2.8 km/s. In order to account for changes in material ductility and reduction of stress drop, observed in the shallow crust (upper 3-5 km), and the transition from ductile state to brittle state in the upper seismogenic zone, in our stress models we included a shallow weak zone (<4km). In this zone the stress drop was set to zero at the free surface and gradually increased with depth, while the slip weakening distance was set to 75 cm at the free surface and decreased to 50 cm at the base of the weak zone. As in the case of reverse faulting during the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, from these computations we found a systematic change in the shape of the slip-rate function, from Kostrov-type in the deeper part of the fault to a more symmetric cosine-type in the upper few kilometers, near the free-surface. Moreover, the average slip duration in the weak zone, with respect to slip duration in the deeper parts of the fault, increases by at most a factor of 1.5. We found a systematic and gradual change in the shape of the slip-rate function from Kostrov-type in the asperity areas (SMGAs), to more symmetric cosine-type in the upper few km near the free-surface, on the long period motion generation area (LMGA). The effective rise time in the LMGA, with respect to that in the SMGAs, increases by at most a factor of 2. Effective rise time is the time difference between the time at which the slip rate drops to a level that is equal to 25% of its peak and the onset time of the signal. In addition, the slip in the LMGA located above the SMGAs is almost the same as the one in the SMGAs, and about 1.5 times larger than the average slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Relocating microseismicity from downhole monitoring of the Decatur CCS site using a modified double-difference algorithm

SUMMARY The injection of CO2 at the Decatur carbon capture and storage site has generated significant microseismic activity, which occurs in distinct spatial clusters up to approximately 2.2 km from the primary injection well. Accurate and precise event locations are vital for the characterization of the microseismicity to help understand the reservoir response to the CO2 injection, whilst enabling the identification of minor faults and fractures below the resolution of conventional active seismic imaging. However, microseismic monitoring of fluid injection sites, such as Decatur, is often performed using a network of borehole sensors often from a single well. While these downhole sensors have excellent detection capabilities, their poor azimuthal coverage limits the ability to precisely determine event locations. We have developed a modified double-difference relocation algorithm suitable for both 1-D and 3-D velocity models, and which incorporates differential back azimuth observations to allow the benefits of the original double-difference algorithm to be applicable to a downhole microseismic monitoring setting. Applying the modified double-difference algorithm to the microseismicity at Decatur, we have successfully relocated 4293 events. The relocation included over 59 million observations for 757 285 event pairs, split across seven geographic regions. Despite the majority of observations being recorded in only two boreholes, with an almost identical azimuthal coverage, the results have shown to be reliable with significantly reduced residuals and low uncertainties associated with the final locations. We have analysed the residuals in terms of their association with each geographic region, data type, station and individual events, to fully appreciate their influence in the inversion and the fit of the data to the final set of event locations. For each region, the relocated seismicity has become less diffuse with improved clustering, and with newly visible linear features often orientated in a NE–SW direction. These results show the potential improvements that can be made to microseismic event locations recorded by a borehole network with a limited and variable azimuthal distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methodological guidelines on concrete degradation based on predictive models and the release of MOSAIC for industry use

In light-water reactors (LWRs), the concrete biological shield (CBS) designates the concrete structure directly facing the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). The primary function of the CBS is to protect equipment and personnel from the neutron and gamma radiation exiting the RPV. Most CBSs in operation in the United States also provide structural support to the RPV. Based on a long-term structural analysis, the structural integrity of the CBS to transfer the in-service passive load to the foundation, dynamic loading during an earthquake, and thermal loading during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) must be maintained. Based on test reactor data for accelerated conditions, the mechanical properties of irradiated concrete are affected when exposed to neutron fluence higher than ≈ 10 19 n.cm -2 (E > 0.1 MeV). At 80 years of operation, the fluence estimates at the surface of the CBS range between 1×10 19 and 7×10 19 n.cm -2 (E > 0.1 MeV): the fluence value depends mostly on the design. Although fluence attenuates through the CBS by virtue of the shielding properties of concrete, about 5% to 10% of the CBS wall depth is affected by high fluence. The main degradation mechanism is the so-called radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE) caused by the amorphization of aggregate-forming minerals. RIVE causes large deformation of up to 18% in pure quartz, and it also reduces the structural properties of concrete. The structural effects of long-term exposure to fast neutron irradiation in LWRs was studied in the report entitled “Assessment of the Effect of the Irradiation-Induced Degradation on the In-Service Structural Performance of the Concrete Biological Shields” (M3LW-23OR0403013). This report illustrates that (1) irradiation-induced damage expands further than the region subject to a cumulative fluence of 10 19 n.cm -2 (E > 0.1 MeV) to reach the steel reinforcement location, and (2) the irradiation-induced damage region shows no substantial residual bearing capacity and should not be accounted for in the integrity assessment of the CBS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Leveraging Data Intensive Computing to Support Automated Event Services

A large portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- or event-based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon. A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an EI Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon," and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a finite duration and an associated geolocation as a function of time; its therefore an entity in four-dimensional . (4D) spatiotemporal space. The interests of Earth scientists typically rivet on Earth Science phenomena with potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life, but broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events - usually beginning by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena. such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. And even for these high-impact phenomena, the availability of comprehensive records is still only a recent development. A major reason for the lack of comprehensive ,records for the majority of the ES phenomena is the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property and are thus not consistently tracked. monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack commonly accepted criteria for definitions. However. the lack of comprehensive records is also due to the increasingly prohibitive volume of observations and model data that must be examined. NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data and steadily increases. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. In the following we present a couple motivating scenarios, demonstrating the issues faced by Earth scientists studying ES phenomena.

Clune, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring Disasters by Use of Instrumented Robotic Aircraft

Efforts are under way to develop data-acquisition, data-processing, and data-communication systems for monitoring disasters over large geographic areas by use of uninhabited aerial systems (UAS) robotic aircraft that are typically piloted by remote control. As integral parts of advanced, comprehensive disaster- management programs, these systems would provide (1) real-time data that would be used to coordinate responses to current disasters and (2) recorded data that would be used to model disasters for the purpose of mitigating the effects of future disasters and planning responses to them. The basic idea is to equip UAS with sensors (e.g., conventional video cameras and/or multispectral imaging instruments) and to fly them over disaster areas, where they could transmit data by radio to command centers. Transmission could occur along direct line-of-sight paths and/or along over-the-horizon paths by relay via spacecraft in orbit around the Earth. The initial focus is on demonstrating systems for monitoring wildfires; other disasters to which these developments are expected to be applicable include floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, leaks of toxic chemicals, and military attacks. The figure depicts a typical system for monitoring a wildfire. In this case, instruments aboard a UAS would generate calibrated thermal-infrared digital image data of terrain affected by a wildfire. The data would be sent by radio via satellite to a data-archive server and image-processing computers. In the image-processing computers, the data would be rapidly geo-rectified for processing by one or more of a large variety of geographic-information- system (GIS) and/or image-analysis software packages. After processing by this software, the data would be both stored in the archive and distributed through standard Internet connections to a disaster-mitigation center, an investigator, and/or command center at the scene of the fire. Ground assets (in this case, firefighters and/or firefighting equipment) would also be monitored in real time by use of Global Positioning System (GPS) units and radio communication links between the assets and the UAS. In this scenario, the UAS would serve as a data-relay station in the sky, sending packets of information concerning the locations of assets to the image-processing computer, wherein this information would be incorporated into the geo-rectified images and maps. Hence, the images and maps would enable command-center personnel to monitor locations of assets in real time and in relation to locations affected by the disaster. Optionally, in case of a disaster that disrupted communications, the UAS could be used as an airborne communication relay station to partly restore communications to the affected area. A prototype of a system of this type was demonstrated in a project denoted the First Response Experiment (Project FiRE). In this project, a controlled outdoor fire was observed by use of a thermal multispectral scanning imager on a UAS that delivered image data to a ground station via a satellite uplink/ downlink telemetry system. At the ground station, the image data were geo-rectified in nearly real time for distribution via the Internet to firefighting managers. Project FiRE was deemed a success in demonstrating several advances essential to the eventual success of the continuing development effort.

Wegener, Steven S.↗