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DOE OSTI2020

Probing Slow Earthquakes With Deep Learning

Abstract Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed sufficiently to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi‐continuous tremor, providing a proxy that quantifies the slow slip rate. Furthermore, the model trained in Cascadia recognizes tremor in other subduction zones and also along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, suggesting a universality of waveform characteristics and source processes, as posited from experiments and theory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Testing Paired Neural Network Models for Aftershock Identification

Aftershock sequences are a burden to real-time seismic monitoring. Cross-correlation can be used because aftershocks exhibit similar waveforms, but the method is computationally expensive. Deep learning may be an alternative, as it is computationally efficient, but great attention to training and testing is required in order to trust that the model can generalize to new aftershock sequences. This is problematic for aftershock sequences, because large-magnitude earthquakes are unpredictable and are globally widespread. Here, we test several paired neural network (PNN) models trained on a augmented (noise-added) earthquake dataset, to determine whether they can be generalized to process real aftershock sequences. Two aftershock datasets that were originally detected by cross-correlation and subsequently validated by an expert analyst were used. We found that current PNN models struggle to generalize to aftershock sequences. However, we identify approaches to improve training future PNN models and believe that improvements may be achieved by transfer learning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Studies of images of short-lived events using ERTS data

The author has identified the following significant results. Of significance are the continued detection and analysis of such short-lived events as forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, and earthquakes.

Deutschman, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Co-Seismic Mass Displacement and its Effect on Earth's Rotation and Gravity

Mantle processes often involve large-scale mass transport, ranging from mantle convection, tectonic motions, glacial isostatic adjustment, to tides, atmospheric and oceanic loadings, volcanism and seismicity. On very short time scale of less than an hour, co-seismic event, apart from the "shaking" that is the earthquake, leaves behind permanent (step-function-like) displacements in the crust and mantle. This redistribution of mass changes the Earth's inertia tensor (and hence Earth's rotation in both length-of-day and polar motion), and the gravity field. The question is whether these effects are large enough to be of any significance. In this paper we report updated calculation results based on Chao & Gross. The calculation uses the normal mode summation scheme, applied to over twenty thousand major earthquakes that occurred during 1976-2002, according to source mechanism solutions given by the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. Compared to the truly large ones earlier in the century, the earthquakes we study are individually all too small to have left any discernible signature in geodetic records of Earth rotation or global gravity field. However, their collective effects continue to exhibit an extremely strong statistical tendencies, conspiring to decrease J2 and J22 while shortening LOD, resulting in a rounder and more compact Earth. Strong tendency is also seen in the earthquakes trying to "nudge" the Earth rotation pole towards approx. 140 deg.E, roughly opposite to the observed polar drift direction. Currently, the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) is measuring the time-variable gravity to high degree and order with unprecedented accuracy. Our results show that great earthquakes such as the 1960 Chilean or 1964 Alaskan events cause gravitational field changes that are large enough to be detected by GRACE.

Chao, B. F.↗

NASA NTRS2020

GRACE gravitational measurements of tsunamis after the 2004, 2010, and 2011 great earthquakes

The 2004 Sumatra, 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku great earthquakes triggered tsunamis as large as a few decimeters over a few 100 km in the open ocean. The transient ocean mass redistribution propagating as tsunamis changed the Earth’s gravity field enough to perturb the GRACE satellites’ orbits at ~ 500 km above the surface. The on-board microwave ranging system detected inter-satellite acceleration anomalies of up to 1.0–4.0 nm/s2. There is good agreement between GRACE measurements and tsunami models for the three events. Complementarily to buoys, ocean bottom pressure sounders, and satellite altimeters, GRACE is sensitive to the long-wavelength spatial scale of tsunamis and provides an independent source of information for assessing alternate early earthquake and tsunami models. Our study demonstrates an innovative way of applying GRACE and GRACE Follow-On data to detect transient geophysical mass changes which cannot be observed by the conventional monthly Level-2 and mascon solutions.

Khosro Ghobadi-Far↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unusual Seismic Signals in the Sevier Desert, Utah Possibly Related to the Black Rock Volcanic Field

Abstract On September 12, 2018 and April 14, 2019 shallow (<2.5 km from the surface, <1 km relative to sea level) earthquakes ( M w 4.0 and 4.1, respectively) struck a relatively aseismic area in south‐central Utah, within the Black Rock Desert volcanic field. Seismic waveforms are dominated by long‐period energy, no clear direct S‐wave arrivals, and signal durations of ∼100 s. Using co‐seismic interferograms, we detect clear and distinguishable surface deformation confirming the shallowness of the two mainshocks, while full moment tensor solutions rule out an isotropic source, such as an explosion or collapse. For the April 2019 sequence, we build an earthquake catalog using a dense temporary geophone array. The enhanced earthquake catalog shows a rapidly decaying aftershock sequence, with 85% of aftershocks occurring during the first three hours. Combining these observations, we argue that these earthquake sequences are related to the Black Rock Desert volcanic field.

Mesimeri, Maria↗

NASA NTRS1989

Geodynamics and temporal variations in the gravity field

Just as the Earth's surface deforms tectonically, so too does the gravity field evolve with time. Now that precise geodesy is yielding observations of these deformations it is important that concomitant, temporal changes in the gravity field be monitored. Although these temporal changes are minute they are observable: changes in the J2 component of the gravity field were inferred from satellite (LAGEOS) tracking data; changes in other components of the gravity field would likely be detected by Geopotential Research Mission (GRM), a proposed but unapproved NASA gravity field mission. Satellite gradiometers were also proposed for high-precision gravity field mapping. Using simple models of geodynamic processes such as viscous postglacial rebound of the solid Earth, great subduction zone earthquakes and seasonal glacial mass fluctuations, we predict temporal changes in gravity gradients at spacecraft altitudes. It was found that these proposed gravity gradient satellite missions should have sensitivities equal to or better than 10(exp -4) E in order to reliably detect these changes. It was also found that satellite altimetry yields little promise of useful detection of time variations in gravity.

Mcadoo, D. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Big Data Meets Geothermal Exploration (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc. investigated the application of micro-earthquake and ambient noise seismology methods to imaging and characterizing the structural characteristics and hydrothermal flux of subsurface faults. Significant advances in what could be resolved were enabled by two major developments in seismology: 1) the availability of large-n arrays of low-cost seismometers, and 2) the availability of increased computational power and semi-automated data reduction algorithms. In tandem, these advances may improve the signal-to-noise ratio and spatial precision of the data collected and enable higher-resolution characterization of subsurface fracture systems and their spatio-temporal evolution. These tools supported efforts to reduce dry-hole risk and to improve wellfield productivity for geothermal resource development. In particular, two applications of these advances were evaluated: 1) fracture-seismic imaging, which was used to detect ambient emissions from fluid-filled fractures, and 2) reservoir tomography, which used information about travel paths, source locations, and source parameters of micro-earthquakes to identify areas of enhanced permeability. Integration of these methods provided guidance for siting wells and served as prior constraints for reservoir models, informing forecasts of power potential and production and injection strategies aimed at minimizing temperature decline and improving overall resource productivity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Measurement of subresolution terrain displacements using SPOT panchromatic imagery

It is shown that satellite-derived imagery can be used to measure subresolution horizontal terrain displacements associated with present-day earthquakes, sand dune migration, glacial motion, coastal sediment transport, and pre-eruptive volcanic processes. This use of these data allows the detection of change and the determination of rates of many environmental processes worldwide. The premise of the method is that areally extensive, subresolution spatial differences in ground patterns between images acquired at different times can be accurately measured to high precision and can be distinguished from systematic image differences, such as those due to sensing-system attitude variations. Thus far, a preliminary algorithm has been tested that shows that the approach is reasonable.

Crippen, Robert E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismo-Acoustic Wave Simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake

It is well known that underground explosions or earthquakes can generate infrasound in the atmosphere. Seismoacoustic coupling between the ground motions and atmosphere is a key mechanism for infrasound generation. Epicentral infrasound which is direct response to epicentral ground motions are extensively studied for event detection and discrimination. Diffracted infrasound generated from Rayleigh waves are often observed and reported. Recent studies suggested the surface topography is also important for infrasound generation, and mountains or topographic peaks can act as effective secondary infrasound sources. In this study, we perform full 3-D seismoacoustic simulations to understand a coupled seismic and acoustic wave generation by an earthquake and energy partitioning across the solid Earth-ocean-atmosphere system. By including the effects of realistic topography, bathymetry, and earthquake focal mechanism, we provide quantitative information about seismoacoustic wavefields and secondary infrasound sources across the solid-water, solid-air, and water-air interfaces. Acoustic wave transmission across water-air interface is also investigated by using synthetic waveforms. Our study suggests that shallow seas near the coastline or over elevated seafloors can transmit significant amount of energy from acoustic waves in water and can be effective secondary infrasound sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismo-Acoustic Wave Simulation for Earthquake-Generated Infrasound

It is well known that underground explosions or earthquakes can generate infrasound in the atmosphere. Seismoacoustic coupling between the ground motions and atmosphere is a key mechanism for infrasound generation. Epicentral infrasound which is direct response to epicentral ground motions are extensively studied for event detection and discrimination. Diffracted infrasound generated from Rayleigh waves are often observed and reported. Recent studies suggested the surface topography is also important for infrasound generation, and mountains or topographic peaks can act as effective secondary infrasound sources. In this study, we perform full 3-D seismoacoustic simulations to understand a coupled seismic and acoustic wave generation by an earthquake and energy partitioning across the solid Earthocean-atmosphere system. By including the effects of realistic topography, bathymetry, and earthquake focal mechanism, we provide quantitative information about seismoacoustic wavefields and secondary infrasound sources across the solid-water, solid-air, and water-air interfaces. Acoustic wave transmission across water-air interface is also investigated by using synthetic waveforms. Our study suggests that shallow seas near the coastline or over elevated seafloors can transmit significant amount of energy from acoustic waves in water and can be effective secondary infrasound sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metrics to Assess Lightning Context

The Integrated Nuclear Detonation Detection (iNDD) project seeks to develop two statistical constructs. The first will fuse operational data from Nuclear Detonation Detection (NDD) systems in order to determine whether a nuclear event has likely occurred; this is referred to as the “fused detector.” The assorted detection domains of NDD systems span independent regimes with uncorrelated backgrounds; for example, lightning is a background for satellite-based systems, while earthquakes are a background for seismic systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Stress corrosion cracking in the earth

Two fundamental concepts of fracture mechanics are used to develop a theory of the earthquake mechanism which specifically predicts observed time-dependent rupture phenomena such as slow earthquakes, postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, multiple events, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory also predicts that there must be a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may trigger another. Investigations show that all earthquakes must be preceded by a quasi-static slip over a portion of the rupture surfaces, although it may be difficult to detect in practice, and a study of delayed multiple events characterizes the strength of some barriers in the earth as having a stress corrosion index of about 24.

Das, S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Fault Scarp Detection Beneath Dense Vegetation Cover: Airborne Lidar Mapping of the Seattle Fault Zone, Bainbridge Island, Washington State

The emergence of a commercial airborne laser mapping industry is paying major dividends in an assessment of earthquake hazards in the Puget Lowland of Washington State. Geophysical observations and historical seismicity indicate the presence of active upper-crustal faults in the Puget Lowland, placing the major population centers of Seattle and Tacoma at significant risk. However, until recently the surface trace of these faults had never been identified, neither on the ground nor from remote sensing, due to cover by the dense vegetation of the Pacific Northwest temperate rainforests and extremely thick Pleistocene glacial deposits. A pilot lidar mapping project of Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound, contracted by the Kitsap Public Utility District (KPUD) and conducted by Airborne Laser Mapping in late 1996, spectacularly revealed geomorphic features associated with fault strands within the Seattle fault zone. The features include a previously unrecognized fault scarp, an uplifted marine wave-cut platform, and tilted sedimentary strata. The United States Geologic Survey (USGS) is now conducting trenching studies across the fault scarp to establish ages, displacements, and recurrence intervals of recent earthquakes on this active fault. The success of this pilot study has inspired the formation of a consortium of federal and local organizations to extend this work to a 2350 square kilometer (580,000 acre) region of the Puget Lowland, covering nearly the entire extent (approx. 85 km) of the Seattle fault. The consortium includes NASA, the USGS, and four local groups consisting of KPUD, Kitsap County, the City of Seattle, and the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC). The consortium has selected Terrapoint, a commercial lidar mapping vendor, to acquire the data.

Harding, David J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracking Seismic Velocity Perturbations at Ridgecrest Using Ballistic Correlation Functions

Abstract We present results based on data of a dense nodal array composed of 147 stations, deployed in 2022 near the epicenter of the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake to investigate characteristics of the seismic wavefields. Through array analyses, we identified two primary components. First, we observed far-field P waves dominating the 0.5–1.2 Hz frequency range, which are likely primarily generated by wind-driven oceanic swell activity. Second, we detected near-field body waves resulting from anthropogenic activities in the frequency range 2–8 Hz. We examined noise correlation functions derived from data of the dense deployment and regional stations to explore fault-zone seismic velocity changes using ballistic arrivals, with a focus on velocity perturbation shortly before and after the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. Our findings exhibit distinct behavior compared to results obtained through standard coda-wave interferometry. Particularly, we observed a decrease in P-wave travel time on certain station pairs prior to the 2019 earthquake sequence. Supported by detailed investigation of the local seismic wavefields, we interpret the decreasing P-wave travel time as likely caused by a velocity increase away from the fault, possibly related to fluid migration. However, additional information is necessary to verify this hypothesis.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Granular Microslip Precursors to Laboratory Earthquakes

Laboratory earthquake experiments provide important observational constraints for our understanding of earthquake physics. Here we leverage continuous waveform data from a network of piezoceramic sensors to study the spatial and temporal evolution of microslip activity during a shear experiment with synthetic fault gouge. We combine machine learning techniques with ray theoretical seismology to detect, associate, and locate tens of thousands of microslip events within the gouge layer. Microslip activity is concentrated near the center of the system but is highly variable in space and time. While microslip activity rate increases as failure approaches, the spatiotemporal evolution can differ substantially between stick-slip cycles. These results illustrate that even within a single, well-constrained laboratory experiment, the dynamics of earthquake nucleation can be highly complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Geoscience Applications of Airborne and Spaceborne Lidar Altimetry

Recent advances in lidar altimetry technology have enabled new methods to describe the vertical structure of the Earth's surface with great accuracy. Application of these methods in several geoscience disciplines will be described. Airborne characterization of vegetation canopy structure will be illustrated, including a validation of lidar-derived Canopy Height Profiles for closed-canopy, broadleaf forests. Airborne detection of tectonic landforms beneath dense canopy will also be illustrated, with an application mapping active fault traces in the Puget Lowland of Washington state for earthquake hazard assessment purposes. Application of data from the first and second flights of the Shuttle Laser Altimeter will also be discussed in an assessment of global digital elevation model accuracy and error characteristics. Two upcoming space flight missions will be described, the Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) and the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Mission (ICESat), which will provide comprehensive lidar altimeter observations of the Earth's topography and vegetation cover.

Harding David J.↗