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Earthquake Information System

IAEMIS (Integrated Automated Emergency Management Information System) is the principal tool of an earthquake preparedness program developed by Martin Marietta and the Mid-America Remote Sensing Center (MARC). It is a two-component set of software, data and procedures to provide information enabling management personnel to make informed decisions in disaster situations. The NASA-developed program ELAS, originally used to analyze Landsat data, provides MARC with a spatially-oriented information management system. Additional MARC projects include land resources management, and development of socioeconomic data.

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Demonstrating Acquisition of Real-Time Thermal Data over Fires Utilizing UAVs

NASA-Ames Research Center, in collaboration with General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. has been developing real-time data acquisition and information delivery systems employing uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) technology for disaster mitigation and assessment demonstrations. Working in conjunction with the US Forest Service, a disaster community agency responsible for wildfire management and mitigation, we developed a large-scale wildfire demonstration called the First Response Experiment (FIRE). During that experiment in late summer 2001, the participants demonstrated the melding of innovative technologies such as UAV platforms, real-time data processing, and data telemetry for quick analysis of a disaster event. The General Atomics ALTUS UAV, the Airborne Infrared Disaster Assessment System (AIRDAS) and Over-The-Horizon (OTH) satellite data telemetry equipment were employed over a controlled burn to test the feasibility of a disaster monitoring and mitigation platform for hazardous duty. The ALTUS UAV was employed to demonstrate the long duration, altitude, and payload capability of unmanned platforms for acquiring disaster related data. The ALTUS has an operational altitude to 45,000 feet (13,700 in), with a flight duration of twenty-four hours and a payload capacity of over 300 lbs. (148.5 kg). This allows the platform to operate under the conditions that would be necessary for monitoring and mitigating disaster events throughout the Unites States. The four channel AIRDAS data (calibrated thermal infrared digital imagery of the fire event) was sent from the ALTUS UAV via a satellite communications system (NERA transponder and INMARSAT satellite) to a data archive server and an image processing work station at NASA-Ames Research Center, 400 miles away.

Wegener, Steven S.↗

Information Systems Coordinate Emergency Management

The rescue crews have been searching for the woman for nearly a week. Hurricane Katrina devastated Hancock County, the southernmost point in Mississippi, and the woman had stayed through the storm in her beach house. There is little hope of finding her alive; the search teams know she is gone because the house is gone. Late at night in the art classroom of the school that is serving as the county s emergency operations center, Craig Harvey is discussing the search with the center s commander. Harvey is the Chief Operating Officer of a unique company called NVision Solutions Inc., based at NASA s Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, only a couple of miles away. He and his entire staff have set up a volunteer operation in the art room, supporting the emergency management efforts using technology and capabilities the company developed through its NASA partnerships. As he talks to the commander, Harvey feels an idea taking shape that might lead them to the woman s location. Working with surface elevation data and hydrological principles, Harvey creates a map showing how the floodwaters from the storm would have flowed along the topography of the region around the woman s former home. Using the map, search crews find the woman s body in 15 minutes. Recovering individuals who have been lost is a sad reality of emergency management in the wake of a disaster like Hurricane Katrina in 2005. But the sooner answers can be provided, the sooner a community s overall recovery can take place. When damage is extensive, resources are scattered, and people are in dire need of food, shelter, and medical assistance, the speed and efficiency of emergency operations can be the key to limiting the impact of a disaster and speeding the process of recovery. And a key to quick and effective emergency planning and response is geographic information. With a host of Earth-observing satellites orbiting the globe at all times, NASA generates an unmatched wealth of data about our ever-changing planet. This information can be captured, analyzed, and visualized by geographic information systems (GIS) to produce maps, charts, and other tools that can reveal information essential to a wide variety of applications including emergency management. Knowing precise, real-time information about the size, location, environmental conditions, and resulting damage of an event like a flood or wildfire as well as the location and numbers of emergency responders and other resources contributes directly to the effectiveness of disaster mitigation. The need for such information is also evident when responding to homeland security threats, such as a terrorist attack. Recognizing the value of its geospatial information resources for this and other purposes, in 1998 Stennis and the state of Mississippi partnered to form what became the Enterprise for Innovative Geospatial Solutions (EIGS) industry cluster, supporting the growth of remote sensing and GIS-based research and business. As part of EIGS, several companies partnered with NASA through dual use and Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts. Among those was NVision.

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A Cloud-Based Global Flood Disaster Community Cyber-Infrastructure: Development and Demonstration

Flood disasters have significant impacts on the development of communities globally. This study describes a public cloud-based flood cyber-infrastructure (CyberFlood) that collects, organizes, visualizes, and manages several global flood databases for authorities and the public in real-time, providing location-based eventful visualization as well as statistical analysis and graphing capabilities. In order to expand and update the existing flood inventory, a crowdsourcing data collection methodology is employed for the public with smartphones or Internet to report new flood events, which is also intended to engage citizen-scientists so that they may become motivated and educated about the latest developments in satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modeling technologies. Our shared vision is to better serve the global water community with comprehensive flood information, aided by the state-of-the- art cloud computing and crowdsourcing technology. The CyberFlood presents an opportunity to eventually modernize the existing paradigm used to collect, manage, analyze, and visualize water-related disasters.

CyberFlood↗

Central California Disasters: Incorporating Satellite-Derived Precipitation and Soil Moisture Products into Flood Preparedness and Emergency Management in California

Atmospheric rivers are a major contributor to extreme precipitation events and flooding in California. This study assessed the feasibility of using Earth observation data to monitor precipitation, soil moisture, and flooding from atmospheric rivers in the Salinas River Watershed in central California during the winter of 2022-2023. The team analyzed satellite derived precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive radiometer, and synthetic aperture radar imagery from Sentinel-1 to detect flood inundation. Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation estimates were found to underestimate rainfall by 33% to 52% compared to rain gauge data. The team found the Soil Moisture Active Passive dataset to be a valuable flooding indicator that they could visualize through various graphical representations, although its accuracy still needs verification with in situ flood maps. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar imagery provided mapping of flood inundation extent along the Salinas River and surrounding areas and the Blue Spot model appears to be a good predictor of pluvial flood zones. The findings suggest Earth observations can enhance precipitation and flooding monitoring by the California Department of Water Resources, though further verification is needed. Integration of these datasets with vulnerability indices highlighted communities at highest risk during the 2022-2023 flooding events.

Abhinav Banthiya↗

Initial Exploration of STEReO (Scalable Traffic management for Emergency Response Operations) system user requirements for safe integration of small UAS

Environment-based disasters, such as wildfire, can cause substantial loss of life and loss of property and are costing billions of dollars annually. Existing disaster response operations are complex, with many challenges. The aim of the Scalable Traffic management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) system is to demonstrate the application of technologies that will enable small, low-altitude Unmanned Aerial System operations to safely take place in the airspace above a disaster event, increasing the effectiveness of the response. As a first step, the project aims to build a small prototype to demonstrate and test the core functions of this system based on user needs and requirements that were gathered from experts in the field during discussions and walkthroughs.

STEReO↗

Youngstown and Warren Disasters: Mapping Flood Susceptibility, Vulnerability, and Risk and Tree Canopy Coverage in Northern Ohio to Inform Stormwater Management and Flood Mitigation Efforts

Both pluvial and fluvial flooding events pose direct challenges on urban infrastructure and communities across the United States. Heavy rainfall events oversaturate the ground, overflow waterbodies, and overwhelm stormwater infrastructure. Vulnerable areas receive heavy damage from flooding events due to physical factors like increased impervious surfaces, poor stormwater systems, and limited greenspaces. These vulnerable neighborhoods are comprised of aging populations, minority communities, and lower income levels. Lack of data in these communities have made it difficult to implement policymaking and flood mitigation strategies. Using the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model (InVEST) and the PlanetScope satellite constellation, the team visualized historical flooding and tree canopy coverage as a measure of flood susceptibility. The team also used the Arc-Malstrom model to provide further insight into where flooding accumulates via surface elevation depressions in the study area. To validate these models, the team explored the spatial variation of rainfall events using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG). The resulting maps highlight areas surrounding the cities of Youngstown and Warren as being the most flood susceptible and socially vulnerable, while the city centers contain the lowest tree canopy coverage. The DEVELOP team collaborated with the Environmental Collaborative of Ohio (ECO) to create products for end users within the City of Warren’s Water Pollution Control Department, the Eastgate Regional Council of Governments and the Healthy Community Partnership of Mahoning Valley. These products help identify target areas for preventative flood mitigation measures as well as areas ideal for green infrastructure intervention.

InVEST Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model↗

The Challenger tragedy was caused by an Apollo mistake, terminating risk analysis

NASA’s view of risk changed between early Apollo and the Space Shuttle. Risk was a known serious problem at the beginning of Apollo and the risk estimates were disturbingly high. To avoid public concern, risk analysis was discontinued. Risk analysis was avoided in Shuttle, leading to an unnecessarily risky design. The immediate cause of the Challenger tragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in cold weather. The fundamental cause was the high risk of the Shuttle design. Before Challenger, management thought and testified that the probability of an accident was 1 in 100,000. After Challenger, Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a Shuttle failure. The recent Orion design uses the safer Apollo approach, with a hardened capsule, launch abort escape, and the crew placed above the rocket tanks and engines. During Apollo it was estimated that, “assuming all elements from propulsion to rendezvous and life support were done as well or better than ever before, that 30 astronauts would be lost before 3 were returned safely to the Earth.” The chance of astronaut survival was only 10%. After the Apollo 1 tragedy, the awareness of risk led to an intense focus on achieving safety. “The only possible explanation for the astonishing success – no losses in space and on time – was that every participant at every level in every area far exceeded the norm of human capabilities.” During Apollo, a NASA PRA found that the chance of success was “less than 5 percent.” The NASA Administrator felt that “the numbers could do irreparable harm,” and discontinued numerical risk assessment. This led to decreasing understanding of risk. The head of Apollo reliability and safety decided, “Statistics don’t count for anything,” and that risk is reduced by “attention taken in design.” The great and initially unexpected success of Apollo appeared to validate the neglect of PRA. Continuing to neglect the mathematical estimation of risk led Shuttle into a high risk design that produced tragic results. The initial design of the Shuttle emphasized increasing capability and reducing cost without analysis or even mention of risk. A retired NASA official stated, “some NASA people began to confuse desire with reality. … One result was to assess risk in terms of what was thought acceptable without regard for verifying the assessment. … Note that under such circumstances real risk management is shut out.” Not computing risk led to removing launch abort, removing crew escape, selecting less reliable Solid Rocket Boosters, placing the crew compartment next to the rocket boosters, and accepting more stressed shielding tile designs. Accepting these specific risks directly caused the shuttle disasters. The Challenger tragedy is frequently taught as a case of management failure. The focus is on the Challenger launch decision hours before, which is a dramatic example of bad management. However, the true cause of the Challenger disaster occurred decades earlier in the Apollo era. When the easily predictable failures occurred, failure investigations focused on how they might have been avoided. The Shuttle was cancelled after the space station was completed because of its high risk. The ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the choice by the Apollo-era NASA administrator to avoid a negative public reaction to realistic risk analysis.

Harry W. Jones↗

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗

Safety Demonstrator Series for an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System

NASA's Advanced Air Mobility Integration Office has coordinated a meeting with the National Research Council Canada (NRC) to have an interchange of technical area activities to evaluate merit for international partnership. Both NASA and NRC will provide a brief overview of their Advanced Air Mobility activities. Additional aeronautics projects will have an opportunity to present a few slides on current activities and plans. Topics include wildfire, vehicle automation technologies and detect and avoid, and national campaign flight initiatives. NASA's System-Wide Safety (SWS) Project will provide a high-level overview of the the safety demonstrator series. The project has scheduled operational demonstrations of an in-time aviation safety management system across a series of disaster-oriented operations. First up is a wildland fire demonstration scheduled for 2025. Opportunities for synergy will be discussed.

system-wide safety↗

Near-Miss Evaluation Bias as an Obstacle to Organizational Learning: Lessons from NASA

After the Shuttle Columbia catastrophe, the investigation board (CAIB) stated that NASA needs to develop a "learning culture", meaning a capability to learn from past failures by understanding the technical and organizational causes of these mistakes (CAIB report, 2003). While many organizations learn from obvious failures, we argue that it is harder for organizations to learn from near-miss events (i.e., situations where a failure does not occur but nearly did), because these near-misses are processed as successes. For the shuttle program, prior debris problems could have caused a similar failure as on the Columbia mission except that the large pieces missed the highly sensitive portions of the orbiter. This acceptance of foam debris was adopted as a normal occurrence by the shuttle program managers similar to the problems at the time of the Challenger Disaster (detailed in Vaughan, 1996). We extend that work to show that an outcome bias influences people's evaluation of project managers, such that managers of failed missions were perceived more poorly than managers who made the same decisions but whose mission ended in either success or a near-miss. The similarity of ratings between the near-miss and success condition imply that even when a problem occurs that is clearly linked to prior managerial decisions, if the project is not harmed because of good luck, that manager is not held accountable for faculty decision making and neither the individual manager nor the organization learn from the experience potentially increasing the likelihood of a failure in the future.

Dillon, Robin L.↗

Thinking About Taking The Leap? Hear From Those Who Did So...and Survived A Case Study: NASA Stennis Space Center Electronic Records Management

Increased visibility into records management: a) Partnered with NARA to provide electronic records management and Emergency Response training; b) Mandate all civil servants and records personnel attend training.Improve Disaster Recovery: a) TechDoc considered a vital system; b) All electronic documentation and records managed by our system available offsite.

Albasini, Colby V.↗