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At least 145 records · Page 8

Hardware Evaluation Analytical Modeling and Node Simulation: Benefits of Tighter GPU Integration

In this report, we examine several emerging technologies of interest to the Department of Energy and its computational centers. These include: 1) quantifying the benefit of tighter CPU-GPU integration, 2) quantifying the appropriate CPU core:GPU ratio, 3) quantifying the penalty for CPU-GPU disaggregation, 4) quantifying the benefits of tighter GPU-GPU integration, 5) quantifying the benefits of unified memory, and 6) quantifying the benefits of tighter FPGA-GPU integration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Intelligent Energy Optimizer for Residential Buildings

Demand-side management in the buildings is essential for meeting grid flexibility needs in a highly renewable energy scenario. Appliance load monitoring helps decision making for demand-side management by providing the information on operation status/power consumption from different appliances in the buildings. Nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) is an attractive option for appliance load monitoring using because it has lower cost for sensors and helps mitigate privacy concerns. In this study, the team used an event detection technique followed by two different methods for event classification. The results from k-means clustering showed that the events from a single appliance are often distributed in multiple clusters. Thus, the unsupervised method of NILM using k-means clustering used in this study was not very suitable for load disaggregation. The results from NILM showed that the F1 score for event classification was 0.77 for a heat pump water heater and very low for other appliances using the rule-based classification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep Electrification Analysis: The Role of the U.S. Power Grid for Sustainable Transportation

This project attempts to quantify the size of electric generation for the entire nation to transition from a fossil fuel based transportation sector to a zero GHG emission-based energy source. The scope of this analysis is limited to decarbonizing the transportation sector, leaving the remaining sectors, such as power (for those that are still fossil based), industry, and building sectors, for later phases of study. The study year for this analysis is 2050, with expected escalation in transportation services and naturally occurring evolutions in the electric power sector and the entire economy. This analysis uses the projections of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2020) Reference Case for study year 2050 [EIA/AEO2020] as a base-case. The transportation sector is disaggregated by the following modes and classes: (1) on-road (divided into light-duty, medium-duty, heavy-duty vehicles), (2) aviation, (3) maritime, and (4) rail. The decarbonization case was based on only 2 pathways: (1) electrification of on-road transportation except for 30% of heavy-duty vehicles, and (2) power-to-liquid for the remaining transportation modes. The study estimated for 11 US regions what the additional wind and storage capacities requirements are to replace the fossil-based fuels with renewable wind capacity. Considered were the utilization of the existing idle capacity particularly during the load valley at night and any additional new generation capacity in EIA projections for the reference case. To balance the additional wind capacity required significant energy storage capabilities which were estimated in terms of power capacity (GW) and energy capacity (GWh). The paper further characterizes the energy requirements by a relation of power capacity to duration, allowing the analyst to gain insights into what the best technology portfolio might be to meet the new balancing or flexibility needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonexhaustive Taxonomy of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydro Facilities [Slides]

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published benchmark technical reports and presentations that disaggregate major product components for a variety of technologies, including land-based and offshore wind, photovoltaic, and battery energy storage systems. NREL has partnered with staff from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and members of the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technology Office (WPTO) to create a non-exhaustive taxonomy of the major products and components of hydropower and pumped storage systems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Unraveling the Threads of Environmental Justice in Critical Mineral Extraction: A Framework for Regionalized Life Cycle Data

As we transition to a more sustainable energy system, the extraction and processing of critical minerals becomes increasingly important. However, these industries often raise concerns about environmental and social impacts, particularly in disadvantaged communities. To address these concerns, our research focuses on regionalizing environmental life cycle data to connect it with communities affected by mineral extraction. A framework was developed for collecting life cycle background data that supports the Justice40 Toolset, a market-based approach to evaluating net benefits and costs of critical mineral material recovery pathways. A goal was to alleviate public skepticism around mineral extraction processes, including secondary and unconventional feedstocks, by highlighting both environmental and social impacts. To achieve this, computational analysis and geospatial data science techniques were employed, such as within-scale and across-scale methods and proxy dataset usage. By doing so, we were able to develop a framework for identifying and disaggregating data down to regions small enough to support Justice40 goals. Our approach not only provides valuable tools fo insight into the environmental implications of mineral extraction but also helps policymakers evaluate the social impacts on local communities. This research contributes to a more just and equitable transition to a sustainable energy system, ensuring that marginalized voices are heard in decision-making process.

Davis, Tyler [NETL Site Support Contractor, Nation↗

West Coast Offshore Wind Transmission Study

As a primary federal investigation of the utility of transmission to support offshore wind emergence in the Western Interconnect, the West Coast Offshore Wind Transmission study evaluates five distinct West Coast-wide transmission scenarios and trades the economic benefits and costs of six development pathways from 2035 to 2050. In this time, 33 GW of OSW generation and supporting transmission are explored within the context of 350 additional GW of generation to support 100% clean electricity. Geospatial analysis informed plausible transmission topologies and cost estimates. All pathways to intraregional or interregional coordination transmission builds showed more than $\$$14 billion in present value cost savings, with a maximum of $\$$25 billion of savings in the interregional case. These savings are primarily driven by fuel costs and increased availability of power flows enabled by new transmission networks. Key considerations of clean, dispatchable generation options, geographic disaggregation of costs, system reliability reinforcements, resilience, and community values are also presented and discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

MITRE Domain Specific Language (DSL) for synthetic biology workflows (CRADA Final Report)

MITRE is currently developing BioNet, a network designed to facilitate the work of biologist collaborators that are distributed across multiple organizations. BioNet is envisaged to break down traditional barriers in biology, allowing for an integrated, service-based approach to projects which can utilize expertise from any participating entity. This disaggregation fosters innovation by enabling contributions from multiple sources. The public will benefit from the development of the BioNet (to which this project contributes), in that this fostered innovation could positively contribute to our economy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory EAGLE-I TM : Modeling Electric Utility County Customers for Situational Awareness

During natural hazard events (hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and recent man-made events (e.g., cyber attacks), the exchange of near real-time, spatially refined data within the response community is critical. The EAGLE-I$^{TM}$ platform is one tool that facilitates this data for decision makers within the energy sector. While much information can be collected and integrated into the system directly, other pertinent data must be augmented by other derived data products to enhance the information and allow for a consistent evaluation of on-the-ground conditions. One such data set that requires the addition of other derived data is the electric utility customer outage data that is aggregated to the county level within the EAGLE-I application. Without a county customer data set, outages can only be compared on total counts, which gives greater importance to higher population outages. Including an electric utility customer data set at the county level allows for these outage counts to be converted to percent outages and brings a consistent classification of outages and equal importance to all outages. To achieve this, several available data sets were combined and spatial disaggregation techniques were employed to model customer estimates at the county scale. This paper presents the approach to produce this data for the United States and lessons learned from working with these disparate data sets. Data validation is provided, where possible, and limitations of the model and possible improvements are discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of National New Construction Weighting Factors for the Commercial Building Prototype Analyses (2008-2022)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with updating commercial building construction weights for the purpose of estimating national and state-by-state energy savings impacts of changes made to various commercial energy codes and standards. A similar activity was last completed by PNNL in 2020 using disaggregate construction volume data acquired from the Dodge Data & Analytics database (formerly McGraw Hill) for the years 2003-2018 (Lei et al, 2020). As time passes, changes in economic and social demand reshape construction volume trends. For the current update, PNNL reviewed the same data source with the latest construction data for the years 2008-2022. For commercial building analyses, PNNL typically uses a suite of 16 prototype buildings simulated in the 19 ASHRAE climate zones with 16 of them present in the United States. The 2008-2022 commercial building weighting factors were derived using the same approach employed to develop the 2003-2018 set (Lei et al, 2020). Applying the construction volume data from the database to the prototypes and climate zones resulted in the following new construction area-based weighting factors. Table ES.1 shows the weighting factors including all building categories found in the database, and Table ES.2 shows the weighting factors normalized to include only buildings represented by the 16 prototypes. Section 3.0 also includes national- and state-level weighting factors by area and building count.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Scalable, Distribution Network-Aware, Customer Privacy-Preserving Framework for Operation of Virtual Power Plants

This poster presents a hierarchical control framework for a virtual power plant that leverages behind-the-meter resources for grid services while maintaining customer privacy during setpoint disaggregation. Unlike many existing approaches, the virtual power plant model uses a hierarchical control strategy and an iterative approach to determine the optimal set point dis-aggregation without direct load control while maintaining system-level power flow and voltage constraints. The proposed approach is numerically validated on a synthetic distribution feeder in San Francisco, demonstrating the ability of the framework to provide privacy-preserving virtual power plant services.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Leveraging reVeal for Data Center Siting [Slides]

reVeal (the reV Extension for Analyzing Loads) is an open-source, flexible geospatial platform designed to characterize site suitability, with the goal of informing spatial downscaling and disaggregation of large-scale load projections.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Network-Cognizant Time-Coupled Aggregate Flexibility of Distribution Systems Under Uncertainties

Increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) within distribution feeders provides unprecedented flexibility at the distribution-transmission interconnection. To exploit this flexibility and to use the capacity potential of aggregate DERs, feasible substation power injection trajectories need to be efficiently characterized. This paper provides an ellipsoidal inner approximation of the set of feasible power injection trajectories at the substation such that for any point in the set, there exists a feasible disaggregation strategy of DERs for any load uncertainty realization. The problem is formulated as one of finding the robust maximum volume ellipsoid inside the flexibility region under uncertainty. Though the problem is NP-hard even in the deterministic case, this paper derives novel approximations of the resulting adaptive robust optimization problem based on optimal second-stage policies. The proposed approach yields less conservative flexibility characterization than existing flexibility region approximation formulations. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder.

aggregates↗

Likeness: a toolkit for connecting the social fabric of place to human dynamics

The ability to produce richly-attributed synthetic populations is key for understanding human dynamics, responding to emergencies, and preparing for future events, all while protecting individual privacy. The Likeness toolkit accomplishes these goals with a suite of Python packages: pymedm/pymedm\_legacy, livelike, and actlike. This production process is initialized in pymedm (or pymedm\_legacy) that utilizes census microdata records as the foundation on which disaggregated spatial allocation matrices are built. The next step, performed by livelike, is the generation of a fully autonomous agent population attributed with hundreds of demographic census variables. The agent population synthesized in livelike is then attributed with residential coordinates in actlike based on block assignment and, finally, allocated to an optimal daytime activity location via the street network. We present a case study in Knox County, Tennessee, synthesizing 30 populations of public K–12 school students \& teachers and allocating them to schools. Validation of our results shows they are highly promising by replicating reported school enrollment and teacher capacity with a high degree of fidelity.

Tuccillo, Joe↗

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗

City-Scale Building Anthropogenic Heating during Heat Waves

More frequent and longer duration heat waves have been observed worldwide and are recognized as a serious threat to human health and the stability of electrical grids. Past studies have identified a positive feedback between heat waves and urban heat island effects. Anthropogenic heat emissions from buildings have a crucial impact on the urban environment, and hence it is critical to understand the interactive effects of urban microclimate and building heat emissions in terms of the urban energy balance. Here we developed a coupled-simulation approach to quantify these effects, mapping urban environmental data generated by the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled to Urban Canopy Model (UCM) to urban building energy models (UBEM). We conducted a case study in the city of Los Angeles, California, during a five-day heat wave event in September 2009. We analyzed the surge in city-scale building heat emission and energy use during the extreme heat event. We first simulated the urban microclimate at a high resolution (500 m by 500 m) using WRF-UCM. We then generated grid-level building heat emission profiles and aggregated them using prototype building energy models informed by spatially disaggregated urban land use and urban building density data. The spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat discharge from the building sector were analyzed, and the quantitative relationship with weather conditions and urban land-use dynamics were assessed at the grid level. The simulation results indicate that the dispersion of anthropogenic heat from urban buildings to the urban environment increases by up to 20% on average and varies significantly, both in time and space, during the heat wave event. The heat dispersion from the air-conditioning heat rejection contributes most (86.5%) of the total waste heat from the buildings to the urban environment. We also found that the waste heat discharge in inland, dense urban districts is more sensitive to extreme events than it is in coastal or suburban areas. The generated anthropogenic heat profiles can be used in urban microclimate models to provide a more accurate estimation of urban air temperature rises during heat waves.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗