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At least 145 records · Page 8

Selecting and Implementing Resilience Metrics in Existing Energy Sector Models [Slides]

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Remote sensing of physiographic soil units of Bennett County, South Dakota

A study was conducted in Bennett County, South Dakota, to establish a rangeland test site for evaluating the usefulness of ERTS data for mapping soil resources in rangeland areas. Photographic imagery obtained in October, 1970, was analyzed to determine which type of imagery is best for mapping drainage and land use patterns. Imagery of scales ranging from 1:1,000,000 to 1.20,000 was used to delineate soil-vegetative physiographic units. The photo characteristics used to define physiographic units were texture, drainage pattern, tone pattern, land use pattern and tone. These units will be used as test data for evaluating ERTS data. The physiographic units were categorized into a land classification system. The various categories which were delineated at the different scales of imagery were designed to be useful for different levels of land use planning. The land systems are adequate only for planning of large areas for general uses. The lowest category separated was the facet. The facets have a definite soil composition and represent different soil landscapes. These units are thought to be useful for providing natural resource information needed for local planning.

Frazee, C. J.↗

Machine learning with bond information for local structure optimizations in surface science

Local optimization of adsorption systems inherently involves different scales: within the substrate, within the molecule, and between the molecule and the substrate. In this work, we show how the explicit modeling of different characteristics of the bonds in these systems improves the performance of machine learning methods for optimization. Furthermore, we introduce an anisotropic kernel in the Gaussian process regression framework that guides the search for the local minimum, and we show its overall good performance across different types of atomic systems. The method shows a speed-up of up to a factor of two compared with the fastest standard optimization methods on adsorption systems. Additionally, we show that a limited memory approach is not only beneficial in terms of overall computational resources but can also result in a further reduction of energy and force calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Wave models for turbulent free shear flows

New predictive closure models for turbulent free shear flows are presented. They are based on an instability wave description of the dominant large scale structures in these flows using a quasi-linear theory. Three model were developed to study the structural dynamics of turbulent motions of different scales in free shear flows. The local characteristics of the large scale motions are described using linear theory. Their amplitude is determined from an energy integral analysis. The models were applied to the study of an incompressible free mixing layer. In all cases, predictions are made for the development of the mean flow field. In the last model, predictions of the time dependent motion of the large scale structure of the mixing region are made. The predictions show good agreement with experimental observations.

Liou, W. W.↗

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hot QCD White Paper

Hot QCD physics studies the nuclear strong force under extreme temperature and densities. Experimentally these conditions are achieved via high-energy collisions of heavy ions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). In the past decade, a unique and substantial suite of data was collected at RHIC and the LHC, probing hydrodynamics at the nucleon scale, the temperature dependence of the transport properties of quark-gluon plasma, the phase diagram of nuclear matter, the interaction of quarks and gluons at different scales and much more. This document, as part of the 2023 nuclear science long range planning process, was written to review the progress in hot QCD since the 2015 Long Range Plan for Nuclear Science, as well as highlight the realization of previous recommendations, and present opportunities for the next decade, building on the accomplishments and investments made in theoretical developments and the construction of new detectors. Furthermore, this document provides additional context to support the recommendations voted on at the Joint Hot and Cold QCD Town Hall Meeting, which are reported in a separate document.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Probing the Role of Multi-scale Heterogeneity in Graphite Electrodes for Extreme Fast Charging

Electrode-scale heterogeneity can combine with complex electrochemical interactions to impede lithium-ion battery performance, particularly during fast charging. This research investigates the influence of electrode heterogeneity at different scales on the lithium-ion battery electrochemical performance under operational extremes. We employ image-based mesoscale simulation in conjunction with a three-dimensional electrochemical model to predict performance variability in 14 graphite electrode X-ray computed tomography data sets. Our analysis reveals that the tortuous anisotropy stemming from the variable particle morphology has a dominating influence on the overall cell performance. Cells with platelet morphology achieve lower capacity, higher heat generation rates, and severe plating under extreme fast charge conditions. On the contrary, the heterogeneity due to the active material clustering alone has minimal impact. Our work suggests that manufacturing electrodes with more homogeneous and isotropic particle morphology will improve electrochemical performance and improve safety, enabling electromobility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Low-level resource partitioning supports coexistence among functionally redundant bacteria during successional dynamics

Members of microbial communities can substantially overlap in substrate use. However, what enables functionally redundant microorganisms to coassemble or even stably coexist remains poorly understood. Here, we show that during unstable successional dynamics on complex, natural organic matter, functionally redundant bacteria can coexist by partitioning low-concentration substrates even though they compete for one simple, dominant substrate. We allowed ocean microbial communities to self-assemble on leachates of the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and then analyzed the competition among 10 taxonomically diverse isolates representing two distinct stages of the succession. All, but two isolates, exhibited an average of 90% ± 6% pairwise overlap in resource use, and functional redundancy of isolates from the same assembly stage was higher than that from between assembly stages, leading us to construct a simpler four-isolate community with two isolates from each of the early and late stages. We found that, although the short-term dynamics of the four-isolate communities in F. vesiculosus leachate was dependent on initial isolate ratios, in the long term, the four isolates stably coexist in F. vesiculosus leachate, albeit with some strains at low abundance. We therefore explored the potential for nonredundant substrate use by genomic content analysis and RNA expression patterns. This analysis revealed that the four isolates mainly differed in peripheral metabolic pathways, such as the ability to degrade pyrimidine, leucine, and tyrosine, as well as aromatic substrates. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale differences in metabolic strategies for supporting the frequently observed coexistence of large numbers of rare organisms in natural microbiomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Computation of the Thermal Expansion Coefficient of Graphene with Gaussian Approximation Potentials

Direct experimental measurement of thermal expansion coefficient without substrate effects is a challenging task for two-dimensional (2D) materials, and its accurate estimation with large-scale ab initio molecular dynamics is computationally very expensive. Machine learning-based interatomic potentials trained with ab initio data have been successfully used in molecular dynamics simulations to decrease the computational cost without compromising the accuracy. In this work, we investigated using Gaussian approximation potentials to reproduce the density functional theory-level accuracy for graphene within both lattice dynamical and molecular dynamical methods, and to extend their applicability to larger length and time scales. Two such potentials are considered, GAP17 and GAP20. GAP17, which was trained with pristine graphene structures, is found to give closer results to density functional theory calculations at different scales. Further vibrational and structural analyses verify that the same conclusions can be deduced with density functional theory level in terms of the reasoning of the thermal expansion behavior, and the negative thermal expansion behavior is associated with long-range out-of-plane phonon vibrations. Thus, it is argued that the enabled larger system sizes by machine learning potentials may even enhance the accuracy compared to small-size-limited ab initio molecular dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Local Scale Radiobrightness Modeling During the Intensive Observing Period-4 of the Cold Land Processes Experiment-1

The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in 2002 and 2003 in Colorado, USA. One of the goals of the experiment was to test the capabilities of microwave emission models at different scales. Initial forward model validation work has concentrated on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8 ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. Results obtained in the case of the 3& Intensive Observing Period (IOP3) period (Feb., 2003, dry snow) suggest that a model based on Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory is able to model the recorded brightness temperatures using snow parameters derived from field measurements. This paper focuses on the ability of forward DMRT modelling, combined with snowpack measurements, to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan s Truck-Mounted Radiometer System (TMRS) at 19 and 37 GHz during the 4th IOP (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo's Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7) and the TMRS. The plot-scale study in this paper establishes a baseline of DMRT performance for later studies at successively larger scales. And these scaling studies will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Kim, Edward J.↗

Pursuing sources of heterogeneity in modeling clustered population

Abstract Researchers often have to deal with heterogeneous population with mixed regression relationships, increasingly so in the era of data explosion. In such problems, when there are many candidate predictors, it is not only of interest to identify the predictors that are associated with the outcome, but also to distinguish the true sources of heterogeneity , that is, to identify the predictors that have different effects among the clusters and thus are the true contributors to the formation of the clusters. We clarify the concepts of the source of heterogeneity that account for potential scale differences of the clusters and propose a regularized finite mixture effects regression to achieve heterogeneity pursuit and feature selection simultaneously. We develop an efficient algorithm and show that our approach can achieve both estimation and selection consistency. Simulation studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of our method under various practical scenarios. Three applications are presented, namely, an imaging genetics study for linking genetic factors and brain neuroimaging traits in Alzheimer's disease, a public health study for exploring the association between suicide risk among adolescents and their school district characteristics, and a sport analytics study for understanding how the salary levels of baseball players are associated with their performance and contractual status.

Li, Yan↗

Finite Element Method for Capturing Ultra-relativistic Shocks

While finite element methods are used extensively by researchers solving computational fluid dynamics in fields other than astrophysics, their use in astrophysical fluid simulations has been predominantly overlooked. Current simulations using other methods such as finite difference and finite volume (based on finite difference) have shown remarkable results, but these methods are limited by their fundamental properties in aspects that are important for simulations with complex geometries and widely varying spatial and temporal scale differences. We have explored the use of finite element methods for astrophysical fluids in order to establish the validity of using such methods in astrophysical environments. We present our numerical technique applied to solving ultra-relativistic (Lorentz Factor Gamma >> 1) shocks which are prevalent in astrophysical studies including relativistic jets and gamma-ray burst studies. We show our finite element formulation applied to simulations where the Lorentz factor ranges up to 2236 and demonstrate its stability in solving ultra-relativistic flows. Our numerical method is based on the Flowfield Dependent Variation (FDV) Method, unique in that numerical diffusion is derived from physical parameters rather than traditional artificial viscosity methods. Numerical instabilities account for most of the difficulties when capturing shocks in this regime. Our method results in stable solutions and accurate results as compared with other methods.

Richardson, G. A.↗

Hierarchical domain structures in buckled ferroelectric free sheets

Flat elastic sheets tend to display wrinkles and folds. From pieces of clothing down to two-dimensional crystals, these corrugations appear in response to strain generated by sheet compression or stretching, thermal or mechanical mismatch with other elastic layers, or surface tension. Extensively studied in metals, polymers and, — more recently — in van der Waals exfoliated layers, with the advent of thin single crystal freestanding films of complex oxides, researchers are now paying attention to novel microstructural effects induced by bending ferroelectric-ferroelastics, where polarization is strongly coupled to lattice deformation. Here we show that wrinkle undulations in BaTiO3 sheets bonded to a viscoelastic substrate transform into a buckle delamination geometry when transferred onto a rigid substrate. Using spatially resolved techniques at different scales (Raman, scanning probe and electron microscopy), we show how these delaminations in the free BaTiO3 sheets display a self-organization of ferroelastic domains along the buckle profile that strongly differs from the more studied sinusoidal wrinkle geometry. Moreover, we disclose the hierarchical distribution of a secondary set of domains induced by the misalignment of these folding structures from the preferred in-plane crystallographic orientations. Our results disclose the relevance of the morphology and orientation of buckling instabilities in ferroelectric free sheets, for the stabilization of different domain structures, pointing to new routes for domain engineering of ferroelectrics in flexible oxide sheets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigating the Origins of Cyclic Variability in Internal Combustion Engines Using Wall-Resolved Large Eddy Simulations

Modern internal combustion engines (ICE) operate at the ragged edge of stable operation characterized by high cycle-to-cycle variations (CCV). A key scientific challenge for ICE is the understanding, modeling, and control of CCV in engine performance, which can contribute to partial burns, misfire, and knock. The objective of this study is to use high-fidelity numerical simulations to improve the understanding of the causes of CCV. Nek5000, a leading high-order spectral element, open source code, is used to simulate the turbulent flow in the engine combustion chamber. Multicycle, wall-resolved large-eddy simulations (LESs) are performed for the General Motors (GM), Transparent Combustion Chamber (TCC-III) optical engine under motored operating conditions. The mean and root-mean-square (rms) of the in-cylinder flow fields at various piston positions are validated using particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements during the intake and compression strokes. The large-scale flow structures, including the swirl and tumble flow patterns, are analyzed in detail and the causes for cyclic variabilities in these flow features are explained. The energy distribution across the different scales of the flow are quantified using one-dimensional (1D) energy spectra, and the effect of the tumble breakdown process on the energy distribution is examined. Finally, the insights from this study can help us develop improved engine designs with reduced cyclic variabilities in the in-cylinder flow leading to enhanced engine performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Wavelet analysis applied to the IRAS cirrus

The structure of infrared cirrus clouds is analyzed with Laplacian pyramid transforms, a form of non-orthogonal wavelets. Pyramid and wavelet transforms provide a means to decompose images into their spatial frequency components such that all spatial scales are treated in an equivalent manner. The multiscale transform analysis is applied to IRAS 100 micrometer maps of cirrus emission in the north Galactic pole region to extract features on different scales. In the maps we identify filaments, fragments and clumps by separating all connected regions. These structures are analyzed with respect to their Hausdorff dimension for evidence of the scaling relationships in the cirrus clouds.

Langer, William D.↗

Data Projection of the High Temperature Electrolysis System in the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory using Dynamic System Scaling

For nuclear power to be flexible in a functioning Integrated Energy System (IES), excess produced heat must be stored or utilized during times of low power demand to ensure a load factor of 1 while load balancing. The Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) is one facility that is under development to emulate IES conditions on the engineering-scale, planned to conduct virtual real time operations with industry-scale facilities, and is currently testing thermal storage and high temperature electrolysis. As part of the study to develop a method to preprocess input signals or postprocess output signals between systems of different scales via Dynamical System Scaling (DSS), the current research is one of the continued efforts branching from the data projection activity conducted for the Thermal Energy Distribution System and currently engages the High Temperature Electrolysis (HTE) System in DETAIL. The HTE SOEC electrical, fluid, and thermal dynamics Figure of Merits (FOM) were identified, governing equations and closure relations were successfully scaled, and relations between FOM scaling ratios were determined. Setting the scaling objectives to reform existing data to project a data set that doubly accelerated the electrolysis process while preserving the produced amount of hydrogen was generated for the full transient. The calculated boundary conditions were inlet temperature, stack current, and inlet steam mass flow rate at 1470 K, 121.1 A, and 1.886 g/s, respectively. The research outcomes demonstrated an output signal postprocessing case accelerating the hydrogen production without changing geometry, number of cells, and partial pressures.

08 HYDROGEN↗