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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Avian Activity Classification Using Recurrent Networks to Fuse Videos with Metadata on Imbalanced Datasets

Activity classification plays a crucial role in various real-life scenarios involving both humans and animals. There is an increasing need for precise activity classification focused on avian-solar interactions, as the usage of solar energy facilities, such as photovoltaic array power stations, has been observed to impact bird species richness, behavior, and activity. However, there has been no work to develop an automated system to monitor and classify these avian-solar interactions. All current methods rely on human observers, which is time and human resources costly and subject to errors related to searcher efficiency. With the recent success of Deep Learning models in activity classification problems, this paper develops a recurrent neural network-based model to automatically classify six avian activities around solar energy facilities. Our proposed model integrates critical feature engineering metadata with video frame data, enabling improved learning and more accurate activity classification. Furthermore, we address the challenge of data imbalance during training and demonstrate the efficacy of our model in detecting and classifying different activities within video tracks. Additionally, we analyze the saliency/backpropagation map of the trained proposed model and validate its decision-making rationale.

Avian activity classification; bidirectional LSTM;↗
DOE OSTI2020

Retrieval of energy spectra for all flavours of neutrinos from core-collapse supernova with multiple detectors

ABSTRACT We present a new method by which to retrieve energy spectrum for all falvours of neutrinos from core-collapse supernova (CCSN). In the retrieval process, we do not assume any analytic formulas to express the energy spectrum of neutrinos but rather take a direct way of spectrum reconstruction from the observed data; the singular value decomposition algorithm with a newly developed adaptive energy-gridding technique is adopted. We employ three independent reaction channels having different flavour sensitivity to neutrinos. Two reaction channels, inverse beta decay on proton and elastic scattering on electrons, from a water Cherenkov detector such as Super-Kamiokande (SK) and Hyper-Kamiokande (HK), and a charged current reaction channel with Argon from the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) are adopted. Given neutrino oscillation models, we iteratively search the neutrino energy spectra at the CCSN source until they provide the consistent event counts in the three reaction channels. We test the capability of our method by demonstrating the spectrum retrieval to a theoretical neutrino data computed by our recent three-dimensional CCSN simulation. Although the energy spectrum with either electron-type or electron-type antineutrinos at the CCSN source has relatively large error compared to that of other species, the joint analysis with HK + DUNE or SK + DUNE will provide precise energy spectrum of all flavours of neutrinos at the source. Finally, we discuss perspectives for improvements of our method by using neutrino data of other detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Liquid Water by Climbing up Jacob’s Ladder in Density Functional Theory Facilitated by Using Deep Neural Network Potentials

Within the framework of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT), the ability to provide good predictions of water properties by employing a strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional has been extensively demonstrated in recent years. Here, we further advance the modeling of water by building a more accurate model on the fourth rung of Jacob’s ladder with the hybrid functional, SCAN0. In particular, we carry out both classical and Feynman path-integral molecular dynamics calculations of water with the SCAN0 functional and the isobaric–isothermal ensemble. To generate the equilibrated structure of water, a deep neural network potential is trained from the atomic potential energy surface based on ab initio data obtained from SCAN0 DFT calculations. For the electronic properties of water, a separate deep neural network potential is trained by using the Deep Wannier method based on the maximally localized Wannier functions of the equilibrated trajectory at the SCAN0 level. The structural, dynamic, and electric properties of water were analyzed. The hydrogen-bond structures, density, infrared spectra, diffusion coefficients, and dielectric constants of water, in the electronic ground state, are computed by using a large simulation box and long simulation time. For the properties involving electronic excitations, we apply the GW approximation within many-body perturbation theory to calculate the quasiparticle density of states and bandgap of water. Compared to the SCAN functional, mixing exact exchange mitigates the self-interaction error in the meta-generalized-gradient approximation and further softens liquid water toward the experimental direction. For most of the water properties, the SCAN0 functional shows a systematic improvement over the SCAN functional. However, some important discrepancies remain. The H-bond network predicted by the SCAN0 functional is still slightly overstructured compared to the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modelling and Experimental Validation of Improved Performance of Lithium-Ion Batteries Having Thick Electrodes with Laser-Ablated Micro-Structures

For widespread adoption of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) need to achieve energy densities of >275 Wh/kg, cost less than $100/Wh, and charge to more than 80% capacity within 15 minutes. Increasing the battery electrode thicknesses is one way to increase cell energy densities while also saving on cell manufacturing cost by increasing the ratio of electrode active material to inactive material within each cell. However, increased electrode loading is often accompanied by decreased Li+-ion diffusion across the full thick electrodes. This leads to significant cell polarization that prevents full capacity utilization and accelerates cell degradation, especially at fast charging/discharging rates. The introduction of secondary pore networks in thick battery electrodes alleviates some of the trade-offs between energy and power performance. These microstructures provide low tortuosity pathways for facile Li+-ion diffusion deep into the thick electrodes, diminishing detrimental concentration gradients within the cell. Ultrafast-pulsed laser ablation is a promising method to introduce micro pores or channels in thick battery electrodes as it allows for precise control of pattern geometries, results in minimal damage to the electrode and can be introduced into existing roll-to-roll electrode manufacturing lines. Herein, the limitations of thick planer electrodes and the advanced predictive models to identify optimal electrode patterns for improved cycling performance will be presented. The impact of electrode laser patterning to create secondary pore networks also will be discussed. Materials characterization techniques (SEM-EDS, XRD) were used to explore the affect ultrafast laser ablation had on the electrode materials’ morphology and structure. The improvements in the patterned electrodes’ electrochemical cycling performances and degrees of wetting will be compared to a pristine baseline case. Finally, the discrepancies between experimentally obtained data and model predictions will be explained.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Combined Computer Vision and Deep Learning Approach for Rapid Drone-Based Optical Characterization of Parabolic Troughs

Optical accuracy is a primary driver of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) plant performance, but can be damaged by wind loads, gravity, error during installation, and regular plant operation. Collecting and analyzing optical measurements over an entire operating parabolic trough plant is difficult, given the large scale of typical installations. Distant Observer, a software tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, uses images of the absorber tube reflected in the collector mirror to measure both surface slope in the parabolic mirror and offset of the absorber tube from the ideal focal point. This technology has been adapted for fast data collection using low-cost commercial drones, but until recently still required substantial human labor to process large amounts of data. A new method leveraging advanced deep learning and computer vision tools can drastically reduce the time required to process images. This new method addresses the primary analysis bottleneck, identifying featureless, reflective mirror corner points to a high degree of accuracy. Recent work has shown promising results using computer vision methods. The combined deep learning and computer vision approach presented here proved highly effective and has the potential to further automate data collection and analysis, making the tool more robust. The method presented in this paper automatically identified 74.3% of mirror corners within 2 pixels of their manually marked counterparts and 91.9% within 3 pixels. This level of accuracy is sufficient for practical Distant Observer analysis within a target uncertainty. A commercial drone collected video of over 100 parabolic trough modules at an operating CSP plant to demonstrate the deep learning and computer vision method's usefulness in processing large amounts of data. These troughs were successfully analyzed using Distant Observer, paired with the new deep learning and computer vision algorithm, and can provide plant operators and trough designers with valuable insight about plant performance, operating strategies, and plant-wide optical error trends.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum computing based hybrid deep learning for fault diagnosis in electrical power systems

Quantum computing (QC) and deep learning have shown promise of supporting transformative advances and have recently gained popularity in a wide range of areas. Here, this paper proposes a hybrid QC-based deep learning framework for fault diagnosis of electrical power systems that combine the feature extraction capabilities of conditional restricted Boltzmann machine with an efficient classification of deep networks. Computational challenges stemming from the complexities of such deep learning models are overcome by QC-based training methodologies that effectively leverage the complementary strengths of quantum assisted learning and classical training techniques. The proposed hybrid QC-based deep learning framework is tested on a simulated electrical power system with 30 buses and wide variations of substation and transmission line faults, to demonstrate the framework’s applicability, efficiency, and generalization capabilities. High computational efficiency is enjoyed by the proposed hybrid approach in terms of computational effort required and quality of diagnosis performance over classical training methods. In addition, superior and reliable fault diagnosis performance with faster response time is achieved over state-of-the-art pattern recognition methods based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and decision trees (DT).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Solvation and Acidity of Carboxylic Acids Using an Ab Initio Deep Neural Network Potential

Formic and acetic acid constitute the simplest of carboxylic acids, yet they exhibit fascinating chemistry in the condensed phase such as proton transfer and dimerization. The go-to method of choice for modeling these rare events have been accurate but expensive ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations. Here, we present a deep neural network potential trained using accurate ab-initio data that can be used in tandem with enhanced-sampling methods to perform an efficient exploration of the free-energy surface of aqueous solutions of weak carboxylic acids. In particular, we show that our model captures proton dissociation and provides a good estimate of the pK a , as well as the dimerization of formic and acetic acid. This provides a suitable starting point for applications in different research areas where computational efficiency coupled with the accuracy of ab-initio methods is required.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

DeePKS + ABACUS as a Bridge between Expensive Quantum Mechanical Models and Machine Learning Potentials

Recently, the development of machine learning (ML) potentials has made it possible to perform large-scale and long-time molecular simulations with the accuracy of quantum mechanical (QM) models. However, for different levels of QM methods, such as density functional theory (DFT) at the meta-GGA level and/or with exact exchange, quantum Monte Carlo, etc., generating a sufficient amount of data for training an ML potential has remained computationally challenging due to their high cost. In this work, we demonstrate that this issue can be largely alleviated with Deep Kohn–Sham (DeePKS), an ML-based DFT model. DeePKS employs a computationally efficient neural network-based functional model to construct a correction term added upon a cheap DFT model. Upon training, DeePKS offers closely matched energies and forces compared with high-level QM method, but the number of training data required is orders of magnitude less than that required for training a reliable ML potential. As such, DeePKS can serve as a bridge between expensive QM models and ML potentials: one can generate a decent amount of high-accuracy QM data to train a DeePKS model and then use the DeePKS model to label a much larger amount of configurations to train an ML potential. Further, this scheme for periodic systems is implemented in a DFT package ABACUS, which is open source and ready for use in various applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nanostructures for Electrical Energy Storage (NEES) (2020 Final Technical Report)

Nanostructures for Electrical Energy Storage (NEES, www.efrc.umd.edu) was an Energy Frontier Research Center supported by the DOE Office of Science, Basic Energy Sciences, from 8/1/2009 to 7/31/2020. Led by the University of Maryland, NEES enjoyed extensive collaborations with its funded partners, including two DOE Laboratories and six universities. The NEES vision has been to reveal a set of scientific insights and design principles that can underpin a next-generation electrical energy storage approach, building on advances in nanoscale science and technology to achieve simultaneous high power and high energy over extended charge/discharge cycling. The vision is motivated by the recognition that scaling into the nano regime opens the door to new physical phenomena and that the tools enlisted in nanoscale research provide major new opportunities for the synthesis not only of materials at molecular scale but for structures at nano scale and above. NEES has translated this vision into its research program based on two observations. First, while the behavior of ions and electrons in electrolytes and in electrode materials is crucial to electrical energy storage (or more appropriately electrochemical energy storage), it is the transport of ion and electron charge between different structural components of a storage device that ultimately determine its performance. With it well recognized that the choice of electrode materials typically constrain ion transport kinetics as well as maximum ion concentration, the search for better electrode materials has been a primary driver of battery research. At the same time the synthesis of electrodes is typically based on aggregation of particles with varying size, shape, and orientation in the electrode. Together with the presence of additional materials to impart electrical conductivity and cohesion to the composite electrode, change in electrode materials is necessarily accompanied by structural changes at the nano/micro scale that are difficult to categorize and manage. From the beginning, NEES’ vision has been to create and study simpler, highly controlled spatial arrangements of known materials as battery components (electrodes, current collectors, and electrolyte) and to understand how design and structure above the molecular scale determines the energy storage performance available from known materials. Second, advances in nanoscience dramatically expanded the portfolio of synthesis methods, structural motifs, and new phenomena available for research. Some of these gave rapid access to new building blocks at the deep nanoscale (e.g., carbon nanotubes grown by self-assembly, nanoscale arrays formed by electrochemical self-alignment, monolayer films controlled by self-limiting reaction). Such advances served as the enabler for the NEES vision to be pursued experimentally through study of 3D structures created and controlled at the nano, micro, and meso scales. Here, we use meso as in the BES MESO Report, implying not only intermediate or varying length scales, but very much the way behavior is influenced by other factors including aggregation of nanocomponents at different densities and spatial configurations, statistical variations in the aggregates, hierarchical architectures in which they can be assembled, or local 3D configurations that result from the architectures. Over its life cycle, NEES has pursued two overarching goals: (1) to understand the scientific fundamentals of electrochemical storage from the nanoscale to the mesoscale; and (2) to create and learn from innovative, controlled, heterogeneous nanostructures, where such nanostructures can enable the first goal and serve as models for future paradigms in energy storage. Specific goals have included: Synthesize heterogeneous nanostructures comprised of multiple materials arranged in controlled fashion and characterize their behavior; Demonstrate and elucidate design principles for achieving simultaneous high power and high energy; Develop materials processes which enable precision control of thin layers and 3D structures; Investigate the impact of artificial interphases on electrode stability during ion insertion/deinsertion; Create dense arrays of nanostructures to understand how the architecture of these assemblies, along with nanostructure design, influences energy storage behavior at the mesoscale; Identify and understand the consequences of nanoconfinement and local inhomogeneities in 3D mesoscale arrays; Develop and apply computational models to stimulate, guide and interpret experiments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep-learning based raw waveform region-of-interest finder for the liquid argon time projection chamber

The liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology has an excellent capability to measure properties of low-energy neutrinos produced by the sun and supernovae and to look for exotic physics at very low energies. In order to achieve those physics goals, it is crucial to identify and reconstruct signals in the waveforms recorded on each TPC wire. In this work, we report on a novel algorithm based on a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) to look for the region-of-interest (ROI) in raw waveforms. We test this algorithm using data from the ArgoNeuT experiment in conjunction with an improved noise mitigation procedure and a more realistic data-driven noise model for simulated events. This deep-learning ROI finder shows promising performance in extracting small signals and gives an efficiency approximately twice that of the traditional algorithm in the low energy region of ~0.03–0.1 MeV. This method offers great potential to explore low-energy physics using LArTPCs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

A gradient-based deep neural network model for simulating multiphase flow in porous media

We report simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is crucial for the effective management of subsurface energy and environment-related activities. The numerical simulators used for modeling such processes rely on spatial and temporal discretization of the governing mass and energy balance partial-differential equations (PDEs) into algebraic systems via finite-difference/volume/element methods. These simulators usually require dedicated software development and maintenance, and suffer low efficiency from a runtime and memory standpoint for problems with multi-scale heterogeneity, coupled-physics processes or fluids with complex phase behavior. Therefore, developing cost-effective, data-driven models can become a practical choice, and in this work, we choose deep learning approaches as they can handle high dimensional data and accurately predict state variables with strong nonlinearity. In this paper, we describe a gradient-based deep neural network (GDNN) constrained by the physics related to multiphase flow in porous media. We tackle the nonlinearity of flow in porous media induced by rock heterogeneity, fluid properties, and fluid-rock interactions by decomposing the nonlinear PDEs into a dictionary of elementary differential operators. We use a combination of operators to handle rock spatial heterogeneity and fluid flow by advection. Since the augmented differential operators are inherently related to the physics of fluid flow, we treat them as first principles prior knowledge to regularize the GDNN training. We use the example of pressure management at geologic CO 2 storage sites, where CO 2 is injected in saline aquifers and brine is produced, and apply GDNN to construct a predictive model that is trained with physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. We demonstrate that GDNN can effectively predict the nonlinear patterns of subsurface responses, including the temporal and spatial evolution of the pressure and saturation plumes. We also successfully extend the GDNN to convolutional neural network (CNN), namely gradient-based CNN (GCNN), and validate its capability to improve the prediction accuracy. GDNN has great potential to tackle challenging problems that are governed by highly nonlinear physics and enable the development of data-driven models with higher fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing grid–supportive load response to shape resilient frequency control of the power grid

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the retirement of conventional generation units have decreased system inertia, making power systems more vulnerable to resilience and stability issues. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel approach using grid-supportive loads (GSLs) to provide a fast and concise primary frequency response and a deep deterministic policy gradient agent-based secondary controller to restore the system frequency to the nominal value. The proposed method is evaluated on the single-area and multi-area test systems. The simulation results demonstrate that using GSLs enhances the power system's stability and resilience. Compared to conventional controllers, the frequency nadir is improved with GSLs. Additionally, the proposed method effectively enhances resilience even with high penetration. These findings indicate that the proposed approach can improve the resilience and stability of power systems and provide a promising solution for future power systems. The results of this study underscore the importance of utilizing innovative approaches to enhance the stability and resilience of power systems in the context of high penetration of renewable energy sources and the retirement of conventional generation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reconstruction of beam parameters and betatron radiation spectra measured with a Compton spectrometer

The photon flux resulting from high-energy electron beam interactions with high-field systems, such as those found in the upcoming FACET-II experiments at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, yields deep insight into the electron beam’s underlying dynamics during the interaction. However, extracting this information is an intricate process. To demonstrate how to approach this challenge using modern methods, this paper utilizes simulated data that models plasma wakefield acceleration-derived betatron radiation in experiments to determine reliable methods of reconstructing key beam and beam-plasma interaction properties. For betatron radiation measurements, translating the observed 200⁢ keV to 30⁢ MeV photon double-differential energy-angle spectra obtained from an advanced Compton spectrometer requires testing multiple methods to optimize the pipeline from its response to incident electron beam information. The paper compares maximum likelihood estimation and machine learning to refine the translation of photon spectra into precise electron beam metrics, such as spot size, energy, and emittance, enhancing the understanding of beam behavior within these dense, high-field environments. We also introduce machine learning and the expected maximization algorithm to reconstruct the primary photon spectrum, employing a multilayer neural network for regression analysis of the energy and angle spectra. With appropriate modifications, the advanced methods reproduce relevant incident beam parameters with high accuracy, even for beam sizes in the <10 μ⁢m range. This capacity is critical to understanding intense beam propagation and its optimization in plasma.

Beam code development & simulation techniques↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable and Differentiable Reinforcement Learning for Multi-objective Optimization in Particle Accelerators

Operating particle accelerators involves optimizing multiple goals simultaneously, which can be challenging due to trade-offs among objectives. While evolutionary algorithms like the genetic algorithm (GA) have been used for various Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) tasks, they are not inherently suited for complex control problems. This talk highlights two variations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) for concurrently optimizing heat load and trip rates at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). The problem involves strict constraints on individual states, actions, and overall energy requirements of the beam. First, this talk highlights how differentiability can be harnessed through a Deep Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) approach to address MOO issues within particle accelerators. We examine the DDRL method alongside Model Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL), GA, and Bayesian Optimization (BO). The performance of these methods is assessed by generating a Pareto-front for two objectives. Our findings indicate that DDRL excels in handling high-dimensional problems more effectively than MFRL, BO, and GA. Next, we will show integration of explainable physics-based constraints into RL algorithms to enhance trans- parency and trust in decision-making processes by enabling users to verify that agents adhere to established physical principles. This surrogate function can be modeled using neural networks or sparse dictionary mod- els. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment provided but the surrogate model. In addi- tion, we find that the introduction of a mathematical functional dictionary based surrogate model enables our reinforcement learning algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator controls environments.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2026

A novel catalytic method for low-energy CO2 capture

High-energy associated with slow absorption-desorption kinetics remains a major challenge of all chemisorption-based CO2 capture technologies, particularly during solvent regeneration. A novel catalytic sorption system, based on aqueous piperidine (C5H10-NH) activated by a deep eutectic solvent (DES), was developed in this research to overcome the challenge.

CO2 capture↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗