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At least 145 records · Page 8

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

International Cyber Incident Repository System: Information Sharing on a Global Scale

According to the 2016 Internet Security Threat Report, the largest number of cyber attacks were recorded last year (2015), reaching a total of 430 million incidents throughout the world. As the number of cyber incidents increases, the need for information and intelligence sharing increases, as well. This fairly large increase in cyber incidents is driving the need for an international cyber incident data reporting system. The goal of the cyber incident reporting system is to make available shared and collected information about cyber events among participating international parties. In its 2014 report, Insurance Industry Working Session Readout Report-Insurance for CyberRelated Critical Infrastructure Loss: Key Issues, on the outcomes of a working session on cyber insurance, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security observed that “many participants cited the need for a secure method through which organizations could pool and share cyber incident information” and noted that one underwriter emphasized the importance of internationally harmonized data taxonomies. This cyber incident data reporting system could benefit all nations that take part in reporting incidents to provide a more common operating picture. In addition, this reporting system could allow for trending and anticipated attacks and could potentially benefit participating members by enabling them to get in front of potential attacks. The purpose of this paper is to identify options for consideration for such a system in fostering cooperative cyber defense.

Joyce, Amanda L.↗

Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan for Corrective Action Unit 114: Area 25 EMAD Facility Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

This Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan addresses the actions needed to achieve closure for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 114, Area 25 EMAD Facility, identified in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO). CAU 114 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs) located in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site: • 25-41-03, EMAD Facility (Building 3900) • 25-99-23, Manned Control Car (MCC) and Engine Installation Vehicle (EIV) • 25-33-05, Building 3901, Engine Transport System Maintenance Building (Train Shed) This plan provides the methodology for field activities needed to gather the necessary information for closing CAU 114. There is sufficient information and process knowledge from historical documentation and investigations of similar sites regarding the expected nature and extent of potential contaminants to recommend closure of CAU 114 using the SAFER process. Additional information will be obtained by conducting a field investigation before selecting the appropriate corrective actions for CAU 114. It is anticipated that the results of the field investigation and implementation of corrective actions will support a defensible recommendation that no further corrective action is necessary. The purpose of the corrective action investigation will be to document and verify the adequacy of existing information; to affirm the decision for either clean closure, closure in place, or no further action; and to provide sufficient data to implement the corrective action. The actual corrective action selected will be based on characterization activities implemented under this SAFER Plan. If specific conditions or findings fall outside the bounds of the conceptual site model, such as an unanticipated release, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) will be consulted to determine the path forward before proceeding. Upon completion of SAFER activities, a closure report (CR) will be prepared and submitted to NDEP for review and approval. The schedule for completion of the CR will be established in consultation with NDEP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Predicting and Controlling Corrosion (Abbreviated Final Report)

Corrosion accumulates significant replacement costs in the transportation, utility, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors. It also underpins several of LLNL’s core missions in stockpile stewardship, defense, and energy security. Whereas most corrosion and aging models are empirically parameterized to describe well-defined conditions late in the reaction, the factors that determine the early stages of corrosion—during which mitigation could be most impactful— are poorly understood. This project addressed the critical need for new approaches to predict the kinetics of corrosion initiation based on firm physical and chemical understanding. The activities encompassed degradation of relevant metals in both hydrogen-rich and environmental corrosion scenarios. The team integrated state-of-the-art multiscale simulation, in situ characterization, and data science within three technical thrusts: hydriding of Ti alloys; aqueous corrosion of Al and Ni-Cr alloys; and degradation of additively manufactured 316L stainless steel. In each case, novel capabilities were developed to identify and track the impacts of key atomistic, compositional, and microstructural features on the metal systems. For hydriding, protocols were developed to tightly integrate multiscale models, advanced multimodal characterization, and machine learning to determine how hydrogen interacts with native passivating surface oxides and nucleates new undesired phases, shedding new light on the critical role of grain boundaries, interfaces, and atomically disordered regions. For aqueous corrosion, the project demonstrated methods to predict dissolution rates of metal surfaces in corrosive solutions, to measure and understand microstructural and grain orientation effects on corrosion susceptibility, and to investigate competing growth and dissolution kinetics of surface oxides. For additively manufactured metals, analysis using state-of-the-art microscopy techniques revealed the role of specific heterogeneities invoked during laser processing, including cellular structure, dislocations, and precipitates, on corrosion susceptibility. In addition to new capabilities and understanding, the project provided an avenue for workforce development, as well as key partnerships with stakeholders in corrosion science.

08 HYDROGEN↗

High Explosive Testing Capabilities at Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) [Slides]

LANL is a non-profit Federally Funded Research & Development Center (FFRDC). LANL’s Integrated Weapons Experiments (J) Division addresses national security challenges by executing largescale, integrated, focused experiments, and tests of engineered devices and systems. J-NV plans, fields, and executes dynamic high explosive experiments at NNSS. This includes sub-critical experiments involving special nuclear material, as well as small- and largescale non-nuclear experiments. J-NV generates, analyzes, and disseminates unique, high-quality data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan for Corrective Action Unit 572: Test Cell C Ancillary Building and Structures - Nevada National Security Site, Nevada with ROTC 1

This Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan addresses the actions needed to achieve closure for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 572, Test Cell C Ancillary Building and Structures, identified in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO). CAU 572 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs) located in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site: CAS 25-33-01, Building 3220, Equipment Building; CAS 25-33-02, Building 3230, Motor Drive Building; CAS 25-33-03, Building 3231, Pump House; CAS 25-33-04, Building 3232, Cryogenic Evaluation Lab; CAS 25-99-22, Ancillary Facilities. This plan provides the methodology for field activities needed to gather the necessary information for closing CAU 572. There is sufficient information and process knowledge from historical documentation and investigations of similar sites regarding the expected nature and extent of potential contaminants to recommend closure of CAU 572 using the SAFER process. Additional information will be obtained by conducting a field investigation before selecting the appropriate corrective action. It is anticipated that the results of the field investigation and implementation of corrective actions will support a defensible recommendation that no further corrective action is necessary. The purpose of the corrective action investigation (CAI) will be to document and verify the adequacy of existing information; to affirm the decision for either clean closure, closure in place, or no further action; and to provide sufficient data to implement the corrective action. The actual corrective action selected will be based on characterization activities implemented under this SAFER Plan. If it is determined that complete clean closure cannot be accomplished during the CAI, then a hold point will have been reached and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) will be consulted to determine whether the remaining contamination will be closed under the alternative corrective action of closure in place. This will be presented in a closure report that will be prepared and submitted to NDEP for review and approval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Count Rates to Quantifying Isotopic Activities – Field Analysis of Radiation Monitoring Data

The Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) provides a comprehensive bicoastal radiological and nuclear emergency response to United States Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration. A major part of the support is to provide systematic radiological search for lost or stolen sources, Radiological search is a core competency of the NNSS with its origin dating back to nuclear weapons test era. Search operations from multiple platforms is the common thread among the various NNSS assets, which include Aerial Measuring System (AMS), Maritime Support Team (MST), National Capitol Response (NCR), National Search Team (NST) and Radiological Assistance Program (RAP). Information collected and analyzed during search operations add to the actionable intelligence for the law enforcement agencies and provide valuable guidance for the tactical resolution of a nuclear or radiological crisis. Search is an intelligence and situational awareness driven operation and most often called upon during a radiological emergency, however it can be brought into play to thwart a potential threat by providing monitoring and surveillance support. The Office of Nuclear Incident Response (NA-84) serves as the technical leader in responding to and resolving nuclear and radiological threats worldwide and integrates its efforts with other NNSA stakeholders (e.g., NNSA office of Defense Nuclear Non-proliferation NA-22). The response includes expertise in the areas of radiological search, render safe, and consequence management. This article will discuss the methodologies, tools, procedures, and techniques to extract maximum radiological characterization information (isotopic composition, activities for individual isotopes, threat assessment etc.) from field monitoring or Search operation data.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Additively Manufactured Tamper Evident Container

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a revolutionary and reliable new tamper evident container (TEC) to monitor and protect the health, security, and distribution of high-value assets, technological advancements, products, materials and more that are critical to the operations of businesses and government organizations. Unlike traditional tamper evident seals, the entire TEC serves as a seal, with encrypted on-board electronics able to continuously monitor and log structural health data including but not limited to force, temperature, pressure, humidity, orientation, radiation, acceleration, or vibration as needed. Analog and encrypted digital boards safely stored inside the TEC permanently record the complete integrity history of the protected items and have the ability to alert the TEC owners or take immediate defensive actions should a disruptive or tamper event take place.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spectrum for UAS Control and Non-Payload Communications

There is an increasing need to fly UAS in the NAS to perform missions of vital importance to National Security and Defense, Emergency Management, and Science as well as commercial applications (e.g. cargo transport). To enable integration of UAS into the National Airspace System, several critical technical barriers must be eliminated, including: Separation Assurance/Sense and Avoid - the uncertainty surrounding the ability to interoperate in ATC environments and maintain safe separation from other aircraft in the absence of an on-board pilot. Human Systems Integration - lack of standards and guidelines with respect to UAS display information as well as lack of Ground Control Station (GCS) design requirements to operate in the NAS. Certification - lack of airworthiness requirements and safety-related data specific to the full range of UAS, or for their avionics systems or other components. Communications - lack of standard, certifiable data links and aviation safety spectrum to operate such links for civil UAS control communications.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

Computational Physics Overview [Slides]

Computational physics is an important part of the overall investment in National Security Science at LANL. Computational physics is the study and implementation of numerical analysis to solve problems in physics for which a quantitative theory already exists. Historically, computational physics was the first application of modern computers in science. There are three key elements to computational physics: mathematical models of physical phenomena and conservation equations, computer codes that implement these models, and computer platforms that execute the code instructions and manipulate the data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Report of the Peer Review Panel for the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain Flow and Transport Model, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

The stated purpose of the peer review is to determine whether the model, results, interpretations, and documentation are consistent with the requirements of the FFACO Alternative Modeling Strategy and Decision Process for closure of the CAU. The Peer Review Panel was asked to explicitly answer six questions that provide an overview to its conclusions and recommendations. These six questions and the panel’s responses are presented in the next section of this review report. The Peer Review Panel was asked to present and summarize its primary findings by answering six key peer review questions. These questions are as follows: 1.Is the implementation of the AMS technically and regulatorily sound and defensible? 2.Have conceptual models and/or alternatives for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport in the RM/SM system, permissible based upon available data and observations, been identified to support analyses of radionuclide migration away from the testing areas toward potential receptors? 3.Based on available data that include “maximum transport” and “minimum transport,” do the forecasts represent a range of plausible scenarios and address assumptions for parameters that are most sensitive for saturated zone flow and transport? 4.Can radionuclide transport forecasts be used as an aid in evaluating potential exposure pathways, as intended by the AMS? 5.Has the extent of contamination been bounded such that a regulatory decision can be made regarding CAU closure that is protective of human health and the environment? 6.Has anything that influences the protection of human health and the environment been missed?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of an ICS Ransomware Testbed: Scenarios, Variants, and Evaluation Methods

Ransomware attacks on Industrial Control Systems (ICS) have emerged as a formidable threat to the United States’ critical infrastructure, eliciting grave concerns regarding national security. In March 2023, the FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) unveiled its 2022 Internet Crime Report, highlighting a concerning 870 complaints related to ransomware impacting U.S. critical infrastructure. Of the country's 16 critical infrastructure sectors, 14 encountered at least one ransomware attack. Notably, while the Healthcare and Public Health sector suffered the most, reporting 210 attacks, sectors pivotal to ICS networks and governmental organizations were also targeted: the Defense Industrial Base reported 1 attack, Water and Wastewater Systems 3, Chemical 19, Energy 15, Government Facilities 115, and Critical Manufacturing 157. For instance, a ransomware attack on a major chemical company could jeopardize not only its production but also pose environmental risks should systems controlling hazardous materials be compromised. In 2022, three ransomware variants predominantly targeted U.S. critical infrastructure: HIVE, with 87 attacks; ALPHV/BlackCat, with 114; and LOCKBIT, with 149. Several cyber-attacks, such as the MOVEit data breach in May 2023 and the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack in May 2021, have been so impactful that they commanded national attention. The DarkSide hacking group's assault on the Colonial Pipeline, initiated on May 6th, 2021, stands as one of the most substantial and publicly acknowledged cyber-attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure. The group exploited an exposed Virtual Private Network (VPN) password, paving the way for initial intrusion and subsequent data theft. A mere day later, DarkSide unleashed a ransomware attack that compromised vital accounting and billing systems, prompting an immediate shutdown of the pipeline to mitigate further ransomware proliferation across its network. This crisis spurred a robust response from the U.S. president and regulators, culminating in a national emergency declaration related to the pipeline shutdown on May 9th, 2021. This incident mirrors the 2017 NotPetya ransomware attack that significantly impacted the shipping giant Maersk, highlighting an urgent need for fortified cybersecurity across various industries. Future incidents, akin to the Colonial Pipeline attack, could potentially be mitigated—or entirely averted—should government agencies and private entities scrutinize system vulnerabilities, exploring various ransomware types and entry points. Proactive measures, such as conducting experiments on VPN accounts or auditing passwords to pinpoint duplicate usage across diverse systems and software, might illuminate feasible entry points and vulnerability zones within an organization's systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterization and Recovery of Rare Earths from Coal and By-Products [Poster]

Roughly 87% of REEs came from China in 2014. There is a potential national security and supply risk for critical rare earths for defense and clean energy: Y, Nd, Eu, Dy, Tb. They are not typically found in concentrated ores and are difficult to extract and separate. Because REs are not distributed evenly, there is an excess supply for some REs and shortages for other REs. Much of the recent research on coal utilization in the United States has focused upon the capture of pollutants such as acid gases, particulates, and mercury, and the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. The possible recovery of rare earth elements from abundant coal and byproducts is an exciting new research area, representing a dramatic paradigm shift for coal. Additional data is needed on the rare earth contents of coals and byproducts in order to determine the most promising potential feed materials for extraction processes. Future work will likely focus on the characterization of coals and byproducts, as well as separation methods for rare earth recovery.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

US Rocket Propulsion Industrial Base Health Metrics

The number of active liquid rocket engine and solid rocket motor development programs has severely declined since the "space race" of the 1950s and 1960s center dot This downward trend has been exacerbated by the retirement of the Space Shuttle, transition from the Constellation Program to the Space launch System (SLS) and similar activity in DoD programs center dot In addition with consolidation in the industry, the rocket propulsion industrial base is under stress. To Improve the "health" of the RPIB, we need to understand - The current condition of the RPIB - How this compares to past history - The trend of RPIB health center dot This drives the need for a concise set of "metrics" - Analogous to the basic data a physician uses to determine the state of health of his patients - Easy to measure and collect - The trend is often more useful than the actual data point - Can be used to focus on problem areas and develop preventative measures The nation's capability to conceive, design, develop, manufacture, test, and support missions using liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors that are critical to its national security, economic health and growth, and future scientific needs. center dot The RPIB encompasses US government, academic, and commercial (including industry primes and their supplier base) research, development, test, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities and facilities. center dot The RPIB includes the skilled workforce, related intellectual property, engineering and support services, and supply chain operations and management. This definition touches the five main segments of the U.S. RPIB as categorized by the USG: defense, intelligence community, civil government, academia, and commercial sector. The nation's capability to conceive, design, develop, manufacture, test, and support missions using liquid rocket engines and solid rocket motors that are critical to its national security, economic health and growth, and future scientific needs. center dot The RPIB encompasses US government, academic, and commercial (including industry primes and their supplier base) research, development, test, evaluation, and manufacturing capabilities and facilities. center dot The RPIB includes the skilled workforce, related intellectual property, engineering and support services, and supply chain operations and management. This definition touches the five main segments of the U.S. RPIB as categorized by the USG: defense, intelligence community, civil government, academia, and commercial sector.

Doreswamy, Rajiv↗

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office (CWMD) Data Categorization Study: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Detection Device Data

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) seeks to address critical questions related to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) detection devices. This research aims to enhance the security and understanding of these devices by investigating various aspects of their identification, communication, and functionality. The primary focus is on network security, malware detection, device identification, and intelligence gathering. CBRN data can be categorized in various ways depending on the purpose of CBRN detection devices and the specific context of the applications for analysis. Criteria that can be used to assist in this effort include but are not limited to data type, data protocol, source/destination, application, time, security, and content. This study will inform additional paths for data classification, data profiling, data mapping, and data modeling. This will help the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office (CWMD) better understand their data and make informed decisions based on the insights gained from this study and their application. The CBRN Data Categorization study will include the identification of 5–10 different CBRN detection devices with unique characteristics for assessing and analyzing the data that is being produced by and transmitted from these devices.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Geographical Database Integrity Validation

Airport Safety Modeling Data (ASMD) was developed at the request of a 1997 White House Conference on Aviation Safety and Security. Politicians, military personnel, commercial aircraft manufacturers and the airline industry attended the conference. The objective of the conference was to study the airline industry and make recommendations to improve safety and security. One of the topics discussed at the conference was the loss of situational awareness by aircraft pilots. Loss of situational awareness occurs when a pilot loses his geographic position during flight and can result in crashes into terrain and obstacles. It was recognized at the conference that aviation safety could be improved by reducing the loss of situational awareness. The conference advised that a system be placed in the airplane cockpit that would provide pilots with a visual representation of the terrain around airports. The system would prevent airline crashes during times of inclement weather and loss of situational awareness. The system must be based on accurate data that represents terrain around airports. The Department of Defense and the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) released ASMD to be used for the development of a visual system for aircraft pilots. ASMD was constructed from NIMA digital terrain elevation data (DTED).

Jacobs, Derya↗