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At least 145 records · Page 8

Bombardment History of the Moon: What We Think We Know and What We Don't Know

The absolute impace history of the moon and inner solar system can in principle be derived from the statistics of radiometric ages of shock-heated planetary samples (lunar or meteoritic), from the formation ages of specific impact craters on the moon or Earth; and from agedating samples representing geologic surface units on the moon (or Mars) for which crater densities have been determined. This impact history, however, is still poorly defined. The heavily cratered surface of the moon is a testimony to the importance of impact events in the evolution of terrestrial planets and satellites. Lunar impacts range in scale from an early intense flux of large objects that defined the surface geology of the moon, down to recent, smaller impacts that continually generate and rework the lunar regolith. Densities of larger craters on lunar surface units of dated age define a projectile flux over time that serves as the basis for estimating surface ages on other solid bodies, particularly Mars. The lunar cratering history may address aspects of Earth s evolution, such as the possible role of early intense impacts on the atmosphere and early life and possible periodicity in large impact events in the more recent past. But, much about the lunar impact history remains unknown.. On Earth approximately 172 impact craters up to ~300 km in diameter and up to ~2 Gyr in age are recognized. Although these data suggest greater relative numbers of younger craters, possibly suggesting a recent increase in projectile flux, both the diameters and especially the ages of most terrestrial crates are so poorly known that the differential terrestrial impact flux over time is uncertain. For the moon, densities of craters on some mare surfaces and crater ejecta deposits, for which we have measured or estimated formation ages, suggest an approximately constant lunar impact rate of larger projectiles over the past ~3.5 Gyr. However, the data are cumulative in nature and limited. Questions exist as to how accurately dated samples correlate with surfaces having measured crater densities. Studies of ages of many tiny impact-melt beads from Apollos 12 and 14 soils show a decrease in the number of beads with age from ~4 Gyr ago to ~0.4 Gyr ago, followed by a significant increase in beads with age <0.4 Gyr (2). These authors concluded that the projectile flux had decreased over time, followed by a significant flux increase more recently.

Bogard, Donald↗

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events

Crew health and performance may be impacted by a major solar particle event (SPE), multiple SPEs, or the cumulative effect of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and SPEs. Beyond low-Earth orbit, the protection of the Earth's magnetosphere is no longer available, such that increased shielding and protective mechanisms are necessary in order to prevent acute radiation sickness and impacts to mission success or crew survival. While operational monitoring and shielding are expected to minimize radiation exposures, there are EVA scenarios outside of low-Earth orbit where the risk of prodromal effects, including nausea, vomiting, anorexia, and fatigue, as well as skin injury and depletion of the blood-forming organs (BFO), may occur. There is a reasonable concern that a compromised immune system due to high skin doses from a SPE or due to synergistic space flight factors (e.g., microgravity) may lead to increased risk to the BFO. The primary data available at present are derived from analyses of medical patients and persons accidentally exposed to acute, high doses of low-linear energy transfer (LET) (or terrestrial) radiation. Data more specific to the space flight environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of increase of this risk and to develop appropriate protection strategies. In particular, information addressing the distinct differences between solar proton exposures and terrestrial exposure scenarios, including radiation quality, dose-rate effects, and non-uniform dose distributions, is required for accurate risk estimation.

Carnell, Lisa↗

A Petrographic History of Martian Meteorite ALH84001: Two Shocks and an Ancient Age

ALH84001 is an igneous meteorite, an orthopyroxenite of martian origin. It contains petrographic evidence of two shock metamorphic events, separated by thermal and chemical events. The evidence for two shock events suggests that ALH84001 is ancient and perhaps a sample of the martian highlands. From petrography and mineral chemistry, the history of ALH84001 must include: crystallization from magma, a first shock (impact) metamorphism, thermal metamorphism, low-temperature chemical alteration, and a second shock (impact) metamorphism. Originally, ALH84001 was igneous, an orthopyroxene-chromite cumulate. In the first shock event, the igneous rock was cut by melt-breccia or cataclastic veinlets, now bands of equigranular fine-grained pyroxene and other minerals (crush zones). Intact fragments of the cumulate were fractured and strained (now converted to polygonized zones). The subsequent thermal metamorphism (possibly related to the first shock) annealed the melt-breccia or cataclastic veinlets to their present granoblastic texture and permitted chemical homogenization of all mineral species present. The temperature of metamorphism was at least 875 C, based on mineral thermometers. Next, Mg-Fe-Ca carbonates and pyrite replaced plagioclase in both clasts and granular bands, producing ellipsoidal carbonate globules with sub-micron scale compositional stratigraphy, repeated identically in all globules, The second shock event produced microfault offsets of carbonate stratigraphy and other mineral contacts, radial fractures around chromite and maskelynite, and strain birefringence in pyroxene. Maskelynite could not have been preserved from the first shock event, because it would have crystallized back to plagioclase. The martian source area for ALH84001 must permit this complex, multiple impact history. Very few craters on young igneous surfaces are on or near earlier impact features. It is more likely that ALH84001 was ejected from an old igneous unit (Hesperian or Noachian age), pocked by numerous impact craters over its long exposure at the martian surface.

Treiman, Allan H.↗

Development and validation of the cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment tool

This work presents the development of a cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment (CIERA) tool that links multiphase flow simulation predictions with the progress towards material erosion. To develop a robust erosion modeling tool, the cavitation and erosion predictions for pressurized diesel fuel flow within a channel geometry were validated over a range of Reynolds and cavitation number conditions in two different aluminum channel geometries, one featuring a rounded inlet corner and the other with a sharp inlet corner. The multiphase flow development within the channel was modeled using a compressible mixture model, where phase change was represented with the homogeneous relaxation model and the turbulent flow evolution was modeled using a dynamic structure approach for Large Eddy Simulations. To improve representation of the incubation period before material rupture over existing approaches, a physics-based metric was derived based on the cumulative energy absorbed by the solid material from repeated hydrodynamic impacts. When the average peak pressure was related to the incubation period, the incubation period and its sensitivity to changes in flow conditions were found to be overpredicted. In contrast, predictions from CIERA provided a more accurate means to qualitatively and quantitatively predict the influence of flow conditions on the incubation period before material erosion. When the predicted stored energy was related to the solid material properties to estimate the incubation period, multiphase flow simulations demonstrated accurate representation of the sensitivity of erosion severity to changes in flow conditions. The use of CIERA led to quantitative agreement of the predicted incubation period within 5% of the experimentally measured incubation period.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Regolith of 4 Vesta - Inferences from Howardites

Asteroid 4 Vesta is quite likely the parent asteroid of the howardite, eucrite and diogenite meteorites - the HED clan. Eucrites and diogenites are the products of igneous processes; the former are basaltic composition rocks from flows, and shallow and deep intrusive bodies, whilst the latter are cumulate orthopyroxenites thought to have formed deep in the crust. Impact processes have excavated these materials and mixed them into a suite of polymict breccias. Howardites are polymict breccias composed mostly of clasts and mineral fragments of eucritic and diogenitic parentage, with neither end-member comprising more than 90% of the rock. Early work interpreted howardites as representing the lithified regolith of their parent asteroid. Recently, howardites have been divided into two subtypes; fragmental howardites, being a type of non-regolithic polymict breccia, and regolithic howardites, being lithified remnants of the active regolith of 4 Vesta. We are in the thralls of a collaborative investigation of the record of impact mixing contained within howardites, which includes studies of their mineralogy, petrology, bulk rock compositions, and bulk rock and clast noble gas contents. One goal of our investigation is to test the hypothesis that some howardites represent breccias formed from an ancient, well-mixed regolith on Vesta. Another is to use our results to further understand regolith processing on differentiated asteroids as compared to what has been learned from the Moon. We have made petrographic observations and electron microprobe analyses on 21 howardites and 3 polymict eucrites. We have done bulk rock analyses using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and are completing inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses. Here, we discuss our petrologic and bulk compositional results in the context of regolith formation. Companion presentations describe the noble gas results and compositional studies of low-Ca pyroxene clasts.

Mittlefehldt, D. W.↗

Detection of False Data Injection Attacks in Battery Stacks Using Input Noise-Aware Nonlinear State Estimation and Cumulative Sum Algorithms

Grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are vulnerable to false data injection attacks (FDIAs), which could be used to disrupt state of charge (SoC) estimation. Inaccurate SoC estimation has negative impacts on system availability, reliability, safety, and the cost of operation. In this article a combination of a Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm and an improved input noise-aware extended Kalman filter (INAEKF) is proposed for the detection and identification of FDIAs in the voltage and current sensors of a battery stack. The series-connected stack is represented by equivalent circuit models, the SoC is modeled with a charge reservoir model and the states are estimated using the INAEKF. Further, the root mean squared error of the states’ estimation by the modified INAEKF was found to be superior to the traditional EKF. By employing the INAEKF, this article addresses the research gap that many state estimators make asymmetrical assumptions about the noise corrupting the system. Additionally, the INAEKF estimates the input allowing for the identification of FDIA, which many alternative methods are unable to achieve. The proposed algorithm was able to detect attacks in the voltage and current sensors in 99.16% of test cases, with no false positives. Utilizing the INAEKF compared to the standard EKF allowed for the identification of FDIA in the input of the system in 98.43% of test cases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗

Modeling airborne pathogen transport and transmission risks of SARS-CoV-2

An integrated modeling approach has been developed to better understand the relative impacts of different expiratory and environmental factors on airborne pathogen transport and transmission, motivated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to simulate spatial-temporal aerosol concentrations and quantified risks of exposure as a function of separation distance, exposure duration, environmental conditions (e.g., airflow/ventilation), and face coverings. The CFD results were combined with infectivity models to determine probability of infection, which is a function of the spatial-temporal aerosol concentrations, viral load, infectivity rate, viral viability, lung-deposition probability, and inhalation rate. Uncertainty distributions were determined for these parameters from the literature. Probabilistic analyses were performed to determine cumulative distributions of infection probabilities and to determine the most important parameters impacting transmission. This modeling approach has relevance to both pathogen and pollutant dispersion from expelled aerosol plumes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Decoding Resilience by Modeling Outage and Restoration Processes in Distribution Grids: A Pittsburgh Case Study

Climate-induced extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, pose significant challenges to the resilience of urban power distribution grids. This paper examines the outage and restoration dynamics of Pittsburgh's power grid during the flood event in April 2024 and three heatwaves in June, July, and August 2024. We introduce a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates outage and restoration processes, enabling the quantification of resilience metrics, including total customer-hours of power outage, maximum residual values, and restoration durations across various ZIP codes. Our analysis highlights spatial disparities in outage impacts and restoration efficiencies, with ZIP Code 15222 experiencing the highest cumulative disruptions, while ZIP Code 15217 shows lower susceptibility. By linking statistical trends with weather events, this study underscores the critical need for targeted infrastructure upgrades and advanced restoration strategies. Furthermore, the proposed framework offers valuable insights for planning and managing resilient power systems in the face of increasing climate stress.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Augmentation of orbital debris shielding for Space Station Freedom

Augmentation concepts for the Space Station Freedom (SSF) are described in detail and advantages and disadvantages of various proposals are evaluated. It is pointed out that early augmentation of SSF debris shielding, which would take place 6-9 years after the First Element Launch, could provide the greatest advantages to the program in terms of weight, cost, and safety benefits. Potential augmentation concepts include an attached, rigid aluminum second bumper; the multi-shock shield concept; a mesh double bumper concept; a debris shield augmentation element; a multi-shock airbag protection concept for 2-10 cm debris; and a debris sweeper. Requirements for and operation and deployment of these concepts are described in detail and an example of the augmentation effect on cumulative SSF probability of no-failure from debris and meteoroid impacts is given. An estimate of predicted encounter rates between debris and a 100 m radius sphere around SSF is presented.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗

Ar-39-Ar-40 Ages of Eucrites and the Thermal History of Asteroid 4-Vesta

New Ar-Ar ages of several cumulate and unbrecciated eucrites cluster at approx.4.48 Gyr. We suggest that this age cluster was produced by interruption of eucrite metamorphism within the Vesta parent asteroid by a giant impact, which excavated and rapidly cooled these meteorites. We see no evidence for younger formation ages of the cumulate eucrites, as previously proposed.

Bogard, Donald↗

Cumulative Damage in Strength-Dominated Collisions of Rocky Asteroids: Rubble Piles and Brick Piles

Laboratory impact experiments were performed to investigate the conditions that produce large-scale damage in rock targets. Aluminum cylinders (6.3 mm diameter) impacted basalt cylinders (69 mm diameter) at speeds ranging from 0.7 to 2.0 km/s. Diagnostics included measurements of the largest fragment mass, velocities of the largest remnant and large fragments ejected from the periphery of the target, and X-ray computed tomography imaging to inspect some of the impacted targets for internal damage. Significant damage to the target occurred when the kinetic energy per unit target mass exceeded roughly 1/4 of the energy required for catastrophic shattering (where the target is reduced to one-half its original mass). Scaling laws based on a rate-dependent strength were developed that provide a basis for extrapolating the results to larger strength-dominated collisions. The threshold specific energy for widespread damage was found to scale with event size in the same manner as that for catastrophic shattering. Therefore, the factor of four difference between the two thresholds observed in the lab also applies to larger collisions. The scaling laws showed that for a sequence of collisions that are similar in that they produce the same ratio of largest fragment mass to original target mass, the fragment velocities decrease with increasing event size. As a result, rocky asteroids a couple hundred meters in diameter should retain their large ejecta fragments in a jumbled rubble-pile state. For somewhat larger bodies, the ejection velocities are sufficiently low that large fragments are essentially retained in place, possibly forming ordered "brick-pile" structures.

Housen, Kevin↗

A Time Scale for Major Events in Early Mars Crustal Evolution

The population of visible and buried impact basins > 200 km diameter revealed by high resolution gridded MOLA data and the cumulative frequency curves derived for these pvide a basis for a chronology of major events in early martian history. The relative chronology can be given in terms of N(200) crater retention ages; 'absolute ages' can be assigued using the Hartmann-Neukum (H&N) model chronology. In terms of billions of H&N years, the crustal dichotomy formed by large impact basins at 4.12 +/- 0.08 BYA (N(200) = 3.0-3.2) and the global magnetic field died at about or slightly before the same time (4.15 +/- 0.08 BYA (N(200) = 3.5). In this chronology, the buried lowlands are approx. 120 my younger than the buried highlands, approx. 160 my younger than the highlands overall and approx. 340 my younger than the oldest crater retention surface we see, defined by the largest impact basins.

Frey, Herbert V.↗

Eucrite Impact Melt NWA 5218 - Evidence for a Large Crater on Vesta

Northwest Africa (NWA) 5218 is a 76 g achondrite that is classified as a eucrite [1]. However, an initial classification [2] describes it as a "eucrite shock-melt breccia...(in which) large, partially melted cumulate basalt clasts are set in a shock melt flow...". We explore the petrology of this clast-bearing impact melt rock (Fig. 1), which could be a characteristic lithology at large impact craters on asteroid Vesta [3]. Methods: Optical microscopy, scanning electronmicroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy were used on a thin section (Fig. 1) for petrographic characterization. The impact melt composition was determined by 20 m diameter defocused-beam analyses with a Cameca SX-100 electron microprobe. The data from 97 spots were corrected for mineral density effects [4]. Constituent mineral phases were analyzed with a focusedbeam. Bidirectonal visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and biconical FT-IR reflectance spectra were measured on the surface of a sample slab on its central melt area and on an eucrite clast, and from 125-500 m and <125 m powders of melt. Results: General petrography: The sample specimen is a coherent, medium dark-grey (N4), melt rock. The thin section captures a central, subophitic-textured melt that contains ~1 cm to tens of m-size subangular to rounded, variably-shocked eucrite clasts. Clasts >100 m are coarse-grained with equigranular ~1 mm size plagioclase, quartz, and clinopyroxene (Fig. 1). Single crystals of chromite, ilmenite, zircon, Ca-Mg phosphate, Fe-metal, and troilite are embedded in the melt. Polymineralic clasts are mostly compositionally similar to the above mentioned larger clasts but scarce granulitic fragments are observed as well.

Wittmann, Axel↗

WEST full tungsten operation with an ITER grade divertor

The mission of WEST (tungsten-W Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) is to explore long pulse operation in a full tungsten (W) environment for preparing next-step fusion devices (ITER and DEMO) with a focus on testing the ITER actively cooled W divertor in tokamak conditions. Following the successful completion of phase 1 (2016-2021), phase 2 started in December 2022 with the lower divertor made entirely of actively cooled ITER-grade tungsten mono-blocks. A boronization prior the first plasma attempt allowed for a smooth startup with the new divertor. Despite the reduced operating window due to tungsten, rapid progress has been made in long pulse operation, resulting in discharges with a pulse length of 100 s and an injected energy of around 300 MJ per discharge. Plasma startup studies were carried out with equatorial boron nitride limiters to compare them with tungsten limiters, while Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating assisted startup was attempted. High fluence operation in attached regime, which was the main thrust of the first campaigns, already showed the progressive build up of deposits and appearance of dust, impacting the plasma operation as the plasma fluence increased. In total, the cumulated injected energy during the first campaigns reached 43 GJ and the cumulated plasma time exceeded 5 h. Demonstration of controlled X-Point Radiator regime is also reported, opening a promising route for investigating plasma exhaust and plasma-wall interaction issues in more detached regime. This paper summarises the lessons learned from the manufacturing and the first operation of the ITER-grade divertor, describing the progress achieved in optimising operation in a full W environment with a focus on long pulse operation and plasma wall interaction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Early Thermal History of Eucrites by Ar-39-Ar-40

Ar-39-Ar-40 ages for Piplia Kalan (3.58 +/- 0.02 Ga) and two other eucrites indicate later impact resetting. Older Ar-39-Ar-40 ages exist for the Moama cumulate eucrite (4.42 +/- 0.01 Ga) and the PCA82502 (4.506 +/- 0.009 Ga) and PCA91007 non-brecciated eucrites. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bogard, D. D.↗