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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS2002

Partially Decentralized Control Architectures for Satellite Formations

In a partially decentralized control architecture, more than one but less than all nodes have supervisory capability. This paper describes an approach to choosing the number of supervisors in such au architecture, based on a reliability vs. cost trade. It also considers the implications of these results for the design of navigation systems for satellite formations that could be controlled with a partially decentralized architecture. Using an assumed cost model, analytic and simulation-based results indicate that it may be cheaper to achieve a given overall system reliability with a partially decentralized architecture containing only a few supervisors, than with either fully decentralized or purely centralized architectures. Nominally, the subset of supervisors may act as centralized estimation and control nodes for corresponding subsets of the remaining subordinate nodes, and act as decentralized estimation and control peers with respect to each other. However, in the context of partially decentralized satellite formation control, the absolute positions and velocities of each spacecraft are unique, so that correlations which make estimates using only local information suboptimal only occur through common biases and process noise. Covariance and monte-carlo analysis of a simplified system show that this lack of correlation may allow simplification of the local estimators while preserving the global optimality of the maneuvers commanded by the supervisors.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
DOE OSTI2022

CoLoRe: fast cosmological realisations over large volumes with multiple tracers

We present CoLoRe, a public software package to efficiently generate synthetic realisations of multiple cosmological surveys.CoLoRe can simulate the growth of structure with different degrees of accuracy, with the current implementation supporting lognormal fields, first, and second order Lagrangian perturbation theory.CoLoRe simulates the density field on an all-sky light-cone up to a desired maximum redshift, and uses it to generate multiple 2D and 3D maps: galaxy positions and velocities, lensing (shear, magnification, convergence), integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect, line intensity mapping, and line of sight skewers for simulations of the Lyman-α forest. We test the accuracy of the simulated maps against analytical theoretical predictions, and showcase its performance with a multi-survey simulation including DESI galaxies and quasars, LSST galaxies and lensing, and SKA intensity mapping and radio galaxies. We expect CoLoRe to be particularly useful in studies aiming to characterise the impact of systematics in multi-experiment analyses, quantify the covariance between different datasets, and test cross-correlation pipelines for near-future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Indra: a public computationally accessible suite of cosmological N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Indra is a suite of large-volume cosmological N-body simulations with the goal of providing excellent statistics of the large-scale features of the distribution of dark matter. Each of the 384 simulations is computed with the same cosmological parameters and different initial phases, with 10243 dark matter particles in a box of length 1 h−1 Gpc, 64 snapshots of particle data and halo catalogues, and 505 time-steps of the Fourier modes of the density field, amounting to almost a petabyte of data. All of the Indra data are immediately available for analysis via the SciServer science platform, which provides interactive and batch computing modes, personal data storage, and other hosted data sets such as the Millennium simulations and many astronomical surveys. We present the Indra simulations, describe the data products and how to access them, and measure ensemble averages, variances, and covariances of the matter power spectrum, the matter correlation function, and the halo mass function to demonstrate the types of computations that Indra enables. We hope that Indra will be both a resource for large-scale structure research and a demonstration of how to make very large data sets public and computationally accessible.

Falck, Bridget↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1976

Estimating normal mixture parameters from the distribution of a reduced feature vector

A FORTRAN computer program was written and tested. The measurements consisted of 1000 randomly chosen vectors representing 1, 2, 3, 7, and 10 subclasses in equal portions. In the first experiment, the vectors are computed from the input means and covariances. In the second experiment, the vectors are 16 channel measurements. The starting covariances were constructed as if there were no correlation between separate passes. The biases obtained from each run are listed.

Guseman, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Standard ozone profiles from balloon and satellite data sets

Standard profiles based on upper level averaged profiles from BUV and lower level averaged profiles from balloon measurements are presented in a parametric representation as a function of time of year and latitude. The representation is a simple 4-parameter function representing the ozone amount (m-atm-cm) in each of 12 atmospheric layers defined following the standard Umkehr convention. The same parameterization is applied to the Nimbus-7 SBUV data and is compared to the BUV/balloon parameterization. The ozone variance unaccounted for by the representation is presented and discussed. The season-latitude representation reduces considerably the ozone variance at all levels and explains much of the correlation between layers. This simple representation and corresponding covariance matrix have been used as a priori information in the ozone vertical profile inversion of the Nimbus-7 SBUV experimental measurements.

Klenk, K. F.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Error dynamics and relative orbital uncertainty of the Magellan spacecraft

Relative error is discussed in light of a proposed orbiter mission to Venus. It is hypothesized that the relative (position) error of the orbiting spacecraft between disjoint data sets will be large because of residual uncertainties of the absolute estimates and their decorrelation caused by succeeding estimates. A method is proposed to limit relative error by inducing correlations between the estimates on successive data arcs. These correlations are induced by overlapping the data arcs. Covariance analyses of the data sets are undertaken at two distinct mapping times, yielding the relative error between those mapping times. The technique is applied to a mosaicking problem on a specific day in the mission.

Haw, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Ectomycorrhizal Community Structure and Soil Characteristics of Mature Lodgepole Pine (Pinus Contorta) and Adjacent Stands of Old Growth Mixed Conifer in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming USA

Forest development patterns following disturbance are known to influence the physical and chemical attributes of soils at different points in time. Changes in soil resources are thought to have a corresponding effect on ectomycorrhizal (ECM) community structure. We used molecular methods to compare below-ground ECM species richness, composition, and abundance between adjacent stands of homogenous lodgepole pine and old growth mixed conifer in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). In each stand-type we collected soil cores to both identify mycorrhizae and assess soil chemistry. Although no statistical difference was observed in the mean number of ECM root tips per core between stand types, the total number of species identified (85 versus 35) and the mean number of species per core (8.8 +/- 0.6 versus 2.5 +/- 0.3) were significantly higher in lodgepole pine. Differences between the actual and estimated species richness levels indicated that these forest types support a high number of ECM species and that undersampling was severe. Species compositions were widely disparate between stands where only four species were shared out of a total of 116. Soil analysis also revealed that mixed conifer was significantly lower in pH, but higher in organic matter, potassium, phosphorus, and ammonium when compared to lodgepole pine stands. Species richness per core was correlated with these chemical data, however, analysis of covariance indicated that stand type was the only statistically significant factor in the observed difference in species richness. Our data suggest that ECM fungal richness increases as homogenous lodgepole pine stands grow and mature, but declines after Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir colonize. Despite difficulties linking species composition with soil chemistry, there are a variety of physical and chemical factors that could be influencing ECM community structure. Future field experiments are necessary to test some of the mechanisms potentially operating within this system.

Douglas, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed Estimation of the Covariance Matrix for Various Neutron Spectra

A method for estimating covariance matrices which capture the uncertainties in calculated reactor spectra has been developed. This method is based on perturbing the parameters of a physics-based analytic model fitted to a calculated spectrum. The covariance of the perturbed analytic spectra imposes energy-dependent correlations due to the physics of the neutron processes in the reactor, i.e., a fission component, a 1/E down-scatting component, and a thermal Maxwellian component. An analytic model is developed which is shown to produce good fits to several reactor environments. The covariance matrices produced via this method are then used as the prior spectrum in STAYSL least squares spectrum adjustment where it is combined with integral metrics, such as activation measurements, to produce a high-fidelity neutron spectrum characterization. It was concluded that the methodology showed agreeable results for the ACRR free-field spectrum adjustment in STAYSL resulting in a 𝜒 2 value of 2.21 (per degree of freedom), but further work is needed to describe scattering and interface regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Wavelet Approximation in Data Assimilation

Estimation of the state of the atmosphere with the Kalman filter remains a distant goal because of high computational cost of evolving the error covariance for both linear and nonlinear systems. Wavelet approximation is presented here as a possible solution that efficiently compresses both global and local covariance information. We demonstrate the compression characteristics on the the error correlation field from a global two-dimensional chemical constituent assimilation, and implement an adaptive wavelet approximation scheme on the assimilation of the one-dimensional Burger's equation. In the former problem, we show that 99%, of the error correlation can be represented by just 3% of the wavelet coefficients, with good representation of localized features. In the Burger's equation assimilation, the discrete linearized equations (tangent linear model) and analysis covariance are projected onto a wavelet basis and truncated to just 6%, of the coefficients. A nearly optimal forecast is achieved and we show that errors due to truncation of the dynamics are no greater than the errors due to covariance truncation.

Tangborn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1983

Kinematics of velocity and vorticity correlations in turbulent flow

The kinematic problem of calculating second-order velocity moments from given values of the vorticity covariance is examined. Integral representation formulas for second-order velocity moments in terms of the two-point vorticity correlation tensor are derived. The special relationships existing between velocity moments in isotropic turbulence are expressed in terms of the integral formulas yielding several kinematic constraints on the two-point vorticity correlation tensor in isotropic turbulence. Numerical evaluation of these constraints suggests that a Gaussian curve may be the only form of the longitudinal velocity correlation coefficient which is consistent with the requirement of isotropy. It is shown that if this is the case, then a family of exact solutions to the decay of isotropic turbulence may be obtained which contains Batchelor's final period solution as a special case. In addition, the computed results suggest a method of approximating the integral representation formulas in general turbulent shear flows.

Bernard, P. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Calculated covariance matrices for fission product yields using BeoH

Fission product yields (FPY) are important for a variety of applications (reactor neutronics, spent fuel, dosimetry, radiochemistry, etc.) and are currently included in many of the evaluated libraries around the world. The FPYs in the current US evaluation, ENDF/B-VIII.0, are mainly based on the 1994 evaluation of England and Rider and have only had slight updates—such as the inclusion of a 2 MeV point for 239 Pu—since their development. Additionally, only mean values and uncertainties are included in the evaluation, not full correlations. Los Alamos National Laboratory, in collaboration with several other institutes, has been working on an updated evaluation for the FPYs of 239 Pu(n,f), 235 U(n,f), 238 U(n,f), and 252 Cf(sf) using the deterministic, Hauser-Feshbach, fission fragment decay code, BeoH. BeoH calculates the FPYs consistently with many other prompt and delayed fission observables, explicitly taking into account multi-chance fission and ensuring consistency between observables. In addition to providing updated means and uncertainties for the FPYs on a pointwise energy grid from thermal to 20 MeV, we calculate correlations between all FPYs at each incident energy and across incident energies. Here, we discuss the development of these covariance matrices, differences in the correlations between FPYs based on the parameters that are included in the model optimization, and correlations across incident energies for neutron-induced fission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectral Denoising for Accelerated Analysis of Correlated Ionic Transport

Computation of correlated ionic transport properties from molecular dynamics in the Green-Kubo formalism is expensive, as one cannot rely on the affordable mean square displacement approach. We use spectral decomposition of the short-time ionic displacement covariance to learn a set of diffusion eigenmodes that encode the correlation structure and form a basis for analyzing the ionic trajectories. This allows systematic reduction of the uncertainty and accelerate computations of ionic conductivity in systems with a steady-state correlation structure. We provide mathematical and numerical proofs of the method’s robustness and demonstrate it on realistic electrolyte materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

thermal errors↗