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At least 145 records · Page 8

Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning

A general-purpose computer program for planning the actions of a spacecraft or other complex system has been augmented by incorporating a subprogram that reasons about uncertainties in such continuous variables as times taken to perform tasks and amounts of resources to be consumed. This subprogram computes parametric probability distributions for time and resource variables on the basis of user-supplied models of actions and resources that they consume. The current system accepts bounded Gaussian distributions over action duration and resource use. The distributions are then combined during planning to determine the net probability distribution of each resource at any time point. In addition to a full combinatoric approach, several approximations for arriving at these combined distributions are available, including maximum-likelihood and pessimistic algorithms. Each such probability distribution can then be integrated to obtain a probability that execution of the plan under consideration would violate any constraints on the resource. The key idea is to use these probabilities of conflict to score potential plans and drive a search toward planning low-risk actions. An output plan provides a balance between the user s specified averseness to risk and other measures of optimality.

Schaffer, Steven↗

Formal methods for modeling and analysis of hybrid systems

A technique based on the use of a quantifier elimination decision procedure for real closed fields and simple theorem proving to construct a series of successively finer qualitative abstractions of hybrid automata is taught. The resulting abstractions are always discrete transition systems which can then be used by any traditional analysis tool. The constructed abstractions are conservative and can be used to establish safety properties of the original system. The technique works on linear and non-linear polynomial hybrid systems: the guards on discrete transitions and the continuous flows in all modes can be specified using arbitrary polynomial expressions over the continuous variables. An exemplar tool in the SAL environment built over the theorem prover PVS is detailed. The technique scales well to large and complex hybrid systems.

Tiwari, Ashish↗

Mixed Integer Programming and Heuristic Scheduling for Space Communication

Optimal planning and scheduling for a communication network was created where the nodes within the network are communicating at the highest possible rates while meeting the mission requirements and operational constraints. The planning and scheduling problem was formulated in the framework of Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) to introduce a special penalty function to convert the MIP problem into a continuous optimization problem, and to solve the constrained optimization problem using heuristic optimization. The communication network consists of space and ground assets with the link dynamics between any two assets varying with respect to time, distance, and telecom configurations. One asset could be communicating with another at very high data rates at one time, and at other times, communication is impossible, as the asset could be inaccessible from the network due to planetary occultation. Based on the network's geometric dynamics and link capabilities, the start time, end time, and link configuration of each view period are selected to maximize the communication efficiency within the network. Mathematical formulations for the constrained mixed integer optimization problem were derived, and efficient analytical and numerical techniques were developed to find the optimal solution. By setting up the problem using MIP, the search space for the optimization problem is reduced significantly, thereby speeding up the solution process. The ratio of the dimension of the traditional method over the proposed formulation is approximately an order N (single) to 2*N (arraying), where N is the number of receiving antennas of a node. By introducing a special penalty function, the MIP problem with non-differentiable cost function and nonlinear constraints can be converted into a continuous variable problem, whose solution is possible.

Lee, Charles H.↗

Liquid-Sensing Probe and Methods for Using the Same

A sensor assembly includes a main body, a sensor, and a filler. The main body includes an outer surface having a continuously-variable radius of curvature in at least one portion. A sensor in thermal communication with a region of that surface having relatively low radius of curvature is disposed in the assembly recessed from the outer surface. Liquid droplets adhered to the outer surface in this region tend to migrate to a distant location having a higher radius of curvature. The main body has low thermal conductivity. The filler has a relatively higher thermal conductivity and, in embodiments, fills an opening in the outer surface of the main body, providing a thermally-conductive pathway between the sensor and the surrounding environment via the opening. A probe having a plurality of such sensors, and methods of detecting the presence of liquid and phase transitions in a predetermined space are also disclosed.

Haberbusch, Mark S.↗

Marli: Mars Lidar for Global Wind Profiles and Aerosol Profiles from Orbit

The Mars Exploration Analysis Group's Next Orbiter Science Analysis Group (NEXSAG) has recently identified atmospheric wind measurements as one of 5 top compelling science objectives for a future Mars orbiter. To date, only isolated lander observations of martian winds exist. Winds are the key variable to understand atmospheric transport and answer fundamental questions about the three primary cycles of the martian climate: CO2, H2O, and dust. However, the direct lack of observations and imprecise and indirect inferences from temperature observations leave many basic questions about the atmospheric circulation unanswered. In addition to addressing high priority science questions, direct wind observations from orbit would help validate 3D general circulation models (GCMs) while also providing key input to atmospheric reanalyses. The dust and CO2 cycles on Mars are partially coupled and their influences on the atmospheric circulation modify the global wind field. Dust absorbs solar infrared radiation and its variable spatial distribution forces changes in the atmospheric temperature and wind fields. Thus it is important to simultaneously measure the height-resolved wind and dust profiles. MARLI provides a unique capability to observe these variables continuously, day and night, from orbit.

Orbit↗

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework

The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.

Reiss, Martin A.↗

Constraint-Based Off-Nominal Behavior Modeling for Europa Clipper

The risk analysis for the Europa Clipper mission evaluates the probability of mission failure based on the failure rates of individual components and dependencies among them. The probabilities are calculated by integrating over the intervals of time within which a fault occurs, accounting for an infinite number of cases. The response of the spacecraft to different faults can result in different schedules of activities, changing the intervals of integration. Europa currently uses models of spacecraft systems and components to simulate individual flight scenarios. The goal is to develop a framework for integrating, automating, and improving this modeling process. We describe an approach to generating the schedules for the different fault cases and determining the intervals for faults. It is not enough to just simulate individual cases because we are working with continuous variables that generate an infinite number of possible futures. Instead, we determine time windows within which certain faults can occur and use these time windows as bounds for integration. We found that determining these time windows is a constraint optimization problem. In order to represent these problems, we employ a language based on ontologies of behavior and scenarios. The language enables us to specify constraints in a simple, declarative syntax. A constraint-based analysis engine uses the declarative specification to identify bounds on system parameters and fill in details of behavior. For example, we created a detailed model of power generation, power use, and the corresponding effects on the battery in order to determine when an undervoltage fault can occur. An undervoltage during a trajectory correction maneuver requires that thrusting be interrupted for just enough time to recharge the battery such that the maneuver can be completed within battery limits. This behavior is generated based on the model to minimize the interruption time. For certain scenarios the constraint optimization problems were simple enough to be solved by hand, but the framework made the process substantially faster. It also produced solutions to other problems that we could not solve by hand or with existing tools and allowed us to generate and run many scenarios at once. The scenario language and engine greatly simplified the process of identifying time bounds and separating cases.

Everline, Chester J.↗

Layer by layer thin film fabrication with in-process laser patterning

A modification of the traditional layer by layer process where the substrate is irradiated with laser light during the polycation and/or polyanion dipping cycles is described. By adjusting the laser irradiation time during dipping, irradiation power, number of bilayers, and the location and speed of laser irradiation, a variety of structures with controlled thicknesses can be fabricated. Laser patterned multilayer PAH/PTEBS polymer thin films were fabricated and characterized with absorbance mapping to demonstrate several patterning approaches. Results for 1) two laser patterned tracks, 2) single laser patterned track with varied average laser power across the sample from a continuously variable neutral density filter, and 3) laser patterning using a beam sent through multiple circular apertures are described. Based on the variable neutral density filter laser pattern, for 20 bilayer PAH/PTEBS films, an absorbance difference between off and on pattern of 0.1 requires an average laser power of less than 15 mW at 405 nm. The patterns produced are on the scale of several millimeters, though they could be made much smaller by focusing the laser used for patterning.

Nanoengineering↗

Continuous-flow variable-density wind tunnel facilities

Unique features of wind tunnel facilities at Jet Propulsion Laboratory permit variety of conventional and novel tests to be performed at supersonic and hypersonic speeds. Facilities and operations are described.

Herrera, J. G.↗

Maximum-entropy probability distributions under Lp-norm constraints

Continuous probability density functions and discrete probability mass functions are tabulated which maximize the differential entropy or absolute entropy, respectively, among all probability distributions with a given L sub p norm (i.e., a given pth absolute moment when p is a finite integer) and unconstrained or constrained value set. Expressions for the maximum entropy are evaluated as functions of the L sub p norm. The most interesting results are obtained and plotted for unconstrained (real valued) continuous random variables and for integer valued discrete random variables. The maximum entropy expressions are obtained in closed form for unconstrained continuous random variables, and in this case there is a simple straight line relationship between the maximum differential entropy and the logarithm of the L sub p norm. Corresponding expressions for arbitrary discrete and constrained continuous random variables are given parametrically; closed form expressions are available only for special cases. However, simpler alternative bounds on the maximum entropy of integer valued discrete random variables are obtained by applying the differential entropy results to continuous random variables which approximate the integer valued random variables in a natural manner. All the results are presented in an integrated framework that includes continuous and discrete random variables, constraints on the permissible value set, and all possible values of p. Understanding such as this is useful in evaluating the performance of data compression schemes.

Dolinar, S.↗

Error probabilities in optical PPM receivers with Gaussian mixture densities

A Gaussian mixture density arises when a discrete variable (e.g., a photodetector count variable) is added to a continuous Gaussian variable (e.g., thermal noise). Making use of some properties of photomultiplier Gaussian mixture distributions, some approximate error probability formulas can be derived. These appear as averages of M-ary orthogonal Gaussian error probabilities. The use of a pure Gaussian assumption is considered, and when properly defined, appears as an accurate upper bound to performance.

Gagliardi, R. M.↗

Next Generation Aircraft Design Considering Airline Operations and Economics

Traditional approaches to design and optimization of a new system often use a system-centric objective and do not take into consideration how the operator will use this new system alongside other existing systems. When the new system design is incorporated into the broader group of systems, the performance of the operator-level objective can be sub-optimal due to the unmodeled interaction between the new system and the other systems. Among the few available references that describe attempts to address this disconnect, most follow an MDO (Multidisciplinary Design Optimization)-motivated sequential decomposition approach of first designing a very good system and then providing this system to the operator who, decides the best way to use this new system along with the existing systems. This paper addresses this issue by including aircraft design, airline operations, and revenue management "subspaces"; and presents an approach that could simultaneously solve these subspaces posed as a monolithic optimization problem rather than the traditional approach described above. The monolithic approach makes the problem an expensive Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming problem, which are extremely difficult to solve. To address the problem, we use a recently developed optimization framework that simultaneously solves the subspaces to capture the "synergy" in the problem that the previous decomposition approaches did not exploit, addresses mixed-integer/discrete type design variables in an efficient manner, and accounts for computationally expensive analysis tools. This approach solves an 11-route airline network problem consisting of 94 decision variables including 33 integer and 61 continuous type variables. Simultaneously solving the subspaces leads to significant improvement in the fleet-level objective of the airline when compared to the previously developed sequential subspace decomposition approach.

Roy, Satadru↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗

Combinatorial Multiobjective Optimization Using Genetic Algorithms

The research proposed in this document investigated multiobjective optimization approaches based upon the Genetic Algorithm (GA). Several versions of the GA have been adopted for multiobjective design, but, prior to this research, there had not been significant comparisons of the most popular strategies. The research effort first generalized the two-branch tournament genetic algorithm in to an N-branch genetic algorithm, then the N-branch GA was compared with a version of the popular Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA). Because the genetic algorithm is well suited to combinatorial (mixed discrete / continuous) optimization problems, the GA can be used in the conceptual phase of design to combine selection (discrete variable) and sizing (continuous variable) tasks. Using a multiobjective formulation for the design of a 50-passenger aircraft to meet the competing objectives of minimizing takeoff gross weight and minimizing trip time, the GA generated a range of tradeoff designs that illustrate which aircraft features change from a low-weight, slow trip-time aircraft design to a heavy-weight, short trip-time aircraft design. Given the objective formulation and analysis methods used, the results of this study identify where turboprop-powered aircraft and turbofan-powered aircraft become more desirable for the 50 seat passenger application. This aircraft design application also begins to suggest how a combinatorial multiobjective optimization technique could be used to assist in the design of morphing aircraft.

Crossley, William A.↗

Genetic-evolution-based optimization methods for engineering design

This paper presents the applicability of a biological model, based on genetic evolution, for engineering design optimization. Algorithms embodying the ideas of reproduction, crossover, and mutation are developed and applied to solve different types of structural optimization problems. Both continuous and discrete variable optimization problems are solved. A two-bay truss for maximum fundamental frequency is considered to demonstrate the continuous variable case. The selection of locations of actuators in an actively controlled structure, for minimum energy dissipation, is considered to illustrate the discrete variable case.

Rao, S. S.↗

Variable-temperature cryogenic trap for the separation of gas mixtures

The paper describes a continuous variable-temperature U-shaped cold trap which can both purify vacuum-line combustion products for subsequent stable isotopic analysis and isolate the methane and ethane constituents of natural gases. The canister containing the trap is submerged in liquid nitrogen, and, as the gas cools, the gas mixture components condense sequentially according to their relative vapor pressures. After the about 12 min required for the bottom of the trap to reach the liquid-nitrogen temperature, passage of electric current through the resistance wire wrapped around the tubing covering the U-trap permits distillation of successive gas components at optimal temperatures. Data on the separation achieved for two mixtures, the first being typical vacuum-line combustion products of geochemical samples such as rocks and the second being natural gas, are presented, and the thermal behavior and power consumption are reported.

Des Marais, D. J.↗