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At least 145 records · Page 8

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-temperature-stress superposition of PBX 9502 compressive creep data for lifetime predictions

The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time-Temperature-Stress Superposition of PBX 9502 Compressive Creep Data for Lifetime Predictions

The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

How Does Land Cover and Its Heterogeneity Length Scales Affect the Formation of Summertime Shallow Cumulus Clouds in Observations From the US Southern Great Plains?

This study investigates the effects of heterogeneous land covers on shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds at the US Southern Great Plains using high-resolution satellite and land cover data. During late summer, ShCu occurs over cities the most frequently and over open waters the least frequently, and more often over forest than over grassland. The preferential occurrence of ShCu over forest relative to grassland is consistent with surface measurements showing larger heat fluxes over forests. This preferential occurrence also varies with the length scales of land patches with the largest cloud occurrence difference shifting from smaller length scales (<9 km) during midday to larger scales (>9 km) in the early afternoon. Consistent with theory, these signals are more pronounced under low wind conditions. The preferential length scale shift with time suggests the existence of secondary circulations that strengthen and promote convergence over larger spatial scales as the differential land surface heating intensifies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DISCOVR strain pipeline screening – Part II: Winter and summer season areal productivities and biomass compositional shifts in climate-simulation photobioreactor cultures

Assessing the seasonal biomass productivity and compositional shift dynamics under simulated outdoor culture conditions of the top 22 algae strains selected during Tier I flask screening is an important step in the further prioritization of strains with regard to outdoor pond cultivation. These top 22 strains were subjected to Tier II testing in the PNNL Laboratory Environmental Algae Pond Simulator (LEAPS) photobioreactors, simulating light and temperature conditions of 20 cm deep outdoor ponds during the Arizona winter and summer season. All strains were grown in two consecutive nutrient-replete batch culture experiments at their particular optimal medium salinity to quantify their respective seasonal linear-phase areal biomass productivities. To determine biomass compositional shifts in response to nutrient-depletion, the LEAPS cultures were allowed to enter a 9-day nutrient depletion phase at the end of the second batch run. The following strains were evaluated in winter-season climate-simulated cultures and are listed in the order from highest (7.9 g m -2 day -1 ) to lowest (2.3 g m -2 day -1 ) areal N-replete biomass productivity: Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM, Tetraselmis striata LANL1001, Chlorella vulgaris LRB AZ-1201, Micractinium reisseri NREL14-F2, Monoraphidium sp. MONOR1, Chlorella vulgaris NREL4-C12, Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393, Scenedesmus acutus LRB-AP-0401, Nannochloropsis oceanica CCAP849/10, and Stichococcus minutus CCALA727. The following strains were evaluated in summer-season climate-simulated cultures and are listed in the order from highest (31.8 g m -2 day -1 ) to lowest (14.2 g m -2 day -1 ) areal N-replete biomass productivity: Picochlorum renovo NREL39-A8, Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393, Porphyridium cruentum CCMP675, Picochlorum celeri TG2-WT-CSM/EMRE, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE1116, Stichococcus minor CCMP819, Picochlorum oklahomensis CCMP2329, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE1412 (UTEXB3016), Scenedesmus rubescens NREL46B-D3, Picochlorum soloecismus DOE101, Tetraselmis striata LANL1001, Scenedesmus obliquus DOE 0152.z, and Agmenellum quadruplicatum UTEX2268. All LEAPS cultures experienced a significant reduction in areal biomass productivity in response to nutrient-depletion, from 7-16% in the winter season simulation and up to 1-60% in the summer season simulation. Finally, for 10 of the strains tested, the carbohydrate content more than doubled upon nutrient depletion, and for 9 strains, the lipid content increased by over 50% of the initial content.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Analyses of convective flows and spatial gradients in energetic ion observations

Based on the measured anisotropy of three-dimensional energetic ion distributions obtained from the Medium Energy Particle Instrument experiment of the ISEE 1 spacecraft, bulk flow, epsilon x B convection, and pressure gradients in magnetospheric plasmas are measured with two techniques. In the first technique, using a Compton-Getting transform into the appropriate rest frame in an iterative fashion and converging to the unique velocity that removes the first-order anisotropy from the flux angular distribution, the actual measured angular distribution, and spectrum at each angle, are employed. The second technique uses a first moment of the distribution function in which the shift in velocity space of the distribution function is obtained at two phase space density values. The convection contribution to the velocity shift is assumed to be perpendicular to the pressure gradient contribution if an MHD generator condition is assumed, rendering the two shifts separable, and a gradient scale and a lower limit to the convection electric field are derived in one calculation.

Mitchell, D. G.↗

Tool-Enabled Changes in Terminal Air Traffic Controller Task and Workload Distribution

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted that examined an approach to adjusting airport arrivals in such a way as to enable higher departure throughput while maintaining arrival throughput. This approach, referred to as Departure-Sensitive Arrival Spacing (DSAS), leverages the capabilities of the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) system with an additional Decision Support Tool (DST) to assign more precise arrival spacing interval. This presentation will focus on the changes observed in the task distribution and control strategies among three Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) controller participants and the workload associated with those changes across three conditions: Baseline, TSS, and DSAS. Results showed that the application of the DSTs in the TSS condition and those in the DSAS condition enabled a progressive reduction in the number of clearances issued and for the clearances to be issued earlier, further away from the airport. In doing so, there was also a greater use of speed control versus vectoring and altitude for schedule conformance in the TSS and DSAS conditions respectively and relative to Baseline. Workload also shifted in conjunction with the clearance distribution with an overall reduction across conditions. The changes in task and workload distribution enabled a shift from tactical to strategic control, which allowed for a more predictable and efficient delivery of arrivals.

task↗

Effect of Mn on eutectic phase equilibria in Al-rich Al-Ce-Ni alloys

Microstructural analysis of additively manufactured (AM) Al-Ce-Ni-Mn alloys has identified phases not predicted from existing ternary liquidus projections in the Al-Ce-Ni system. Because the rapid cooling rate of AM is orders of magnitude above that of traditional casting, it is unclear if these additional phases arose from the non-equilibrium processing conditions of AM, a drastic shift in phase stability in the system due to the addition of 1 wt% Mn, or some combination of these two influences. The phases and microstructure of cast samples of Al-Ce-Ni and Al-Ce-Ni-Mn alloys were characterized for several annealing conditions which revealed the equilibrium phases at different temperatures. Phase analysis confirmed that minute levels of Mn substituted for Ni in the system drastically shifts the liquidus projection in the Al-rich corner of the ternary phase diagram such that the eutectic Al 3 Ni phase is suppressed in favor of the Al 23 Ni 6 (Ce,Mn) 4 phase. Further addition of Mn promotes the formation of Al 20 Mn 2 Ce and Al 10 Mn 2 Ce phases. The phase analysis data was then used to improve the CALPHAD modeling of the liquidus projection and isothermal sections for the Al-rich Al-Ce-Ni-Mn quaternary system. Thermodynamic modeling and experimental analysis on phases in the AM sample of Al-Ce-Ni with Mn confirmed that the phases present are consistent with Mn-containing Al-Ce-Ni cast samples. Here, this investigation demonstrates the potential for using secondary alloying elements to drastically alter phase stability and microstructure in alloy systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Datasets used in manuscript, 'High-Throughput Chromosomal Confirmation Capture (Hi-C) Metagenome Sequencing Reveals Moisture Impact on Soil Phage-Host Interactions'

Soil moisture shifts have largely unknown impacts on soil virus-host interactions. Here, we applied high-throughput chromosomal confirmation capture (Hi-C) metagenomics to link phage with their hosts in soils under wet and dry conditions. Bulk metagenomes and metatranscriptomes were analyzed from the same soil incubations. Host-associated phage diversity and the number of viruses per host increased following soil desiccation. Under wet conditions, the viral enrichment and host abundances were significantly negatively correlated, but the transcriptional activities of the phage were higher. Together, these results suggest that there was a general transition of phage from lytic to lysogenic during drying and that viral infection was higher under dry conditions. Soil desiccation also caused shifts in phage hosts and some of these were central in microbial co-occurrence networks, highlighting the impact of soil phages on microbiome structure. This study provides the first empirical evidence of phage-mediated bacterial dynamics during soil desiccation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Internal thermotopography and shifts in general thermal balance in man under special heat transfer conditions

Thermal regulation for astronauts working in pressure suits in open space provides for protection by a system of artificial heat removal and compensation to counteract possible changes in the heat regulating function of the human body that occur under the complex effects of space flight conditions. Most important of these factors are prolonged weightlessness, prolonged limitation of motor activity, and possible deviations of microclimatic environmental parameters.

Gorodinskiy, S. M.↗

Combustion-related pollutants of polydisperse single-composition aerosols and advection fog formation

The most noticeable effect of air pollution on the properties of the atmosphere is the reduction in visibility, with and without the occurrence of condensation, which frequently accompanies polluted air. The present study concerns the formation of advection fog associated with aerosols, due to combustion-related pollutants, with a polydisperse population distribution and a single composition model. The results show that an aerosol population with high particle concentration-shifted distribution provides a more favorable condition for the formation of dense fog than an aerosol population with a low particle concentration-shifted distribution if the value of the mass concentration of the aerosols is kept constant.

Hung, R. J.↗

Using parallel banded linear system solvers in generalized eigenvalue problems

Subspace iteration is a reliable and cost effective method for solving positive definite banded symmetric generalized eigenproblems, especially in the case of large scale problems. This paper discusses an algorithm that makes use of two parallel banded solvers in subspace iteration. A shift is introduced to decompose the banded linear systems into relatively independent subsystems and to accelerate the iterations. With this shift, an eigenproblem is mapped efficiently into the memories of a multiprocessor and a high speed-up is obtained for parallel implementations. An optimal shift is a shift that balances total computation and communication costs. Under certain conditions, we show how to estimate an optimal shift analytically using the decay rate for the inverse of a banded matrix, and how to improve this estimate. Computational results on iPSC/2 and iPSC/860 multiprocessors are presented.

Zhang, Hong↗

Using parallel banded linear system solvers in generalized eigenvalue problems

Subspace iteration is a reliable and cost effective method for solving positive definite banded symmetric generalized eigenproblems, especially in the case of large scale problems. This paper discusses an algorithm that makes use of two parallel banded solvers in subspace iteration. A shift is introduced to decompose the banded linear systems into relatively independent subsystems and to accelerate the iterations. With this shift, an eigenproblem is mapped efficiently into the memories of a multiprocessor and a high speedup is obtained for parallel implementations. An optimal shift is a shift that balances total computation and communication costs. Under certain conditions, we show how to estimate an optimal shift analytically using the decay rate for the inverse of a banded matrix, and how to improve this estimate. Computational results on iPSC/2 and iPSC/860 multiprocessors are presented.

DISTRIBUTED MEMORY MULTIPROCES↗

Non-conformal interface-cohesive modeling with the shifted boundary method

The accurate simulation of boundary- and interface-dominated problems on complex geometries remains challenging when boundary- or interface-fitted meshes are difficult to generate, particularly for curved boundaries, polycrystalline microstructures, and dense interface networks. The Shifted Boundary Method (SBM) alleviates this meshing burden by shifting the enforcement of boundary conditions from the true boundary to a nearby surrogate boundary and recovering the effect of the true boundary through geometric correction terms, thereby enabling standard finite element spaces on non-boundary-fitted meshes. In this report, we develop a general shiftedboundary and shifted-interface framework within the open-source MOOSE framework. We first present a general SBM implementation for complex geometries on non-boundary-fitted meshes. We then adopt the Shifted Interface Method (SIM) for internal interfaces and develop a unified shifted-interface treatment in which the interface law is enforced on a surrogate interface and the effect of the true interface is recovered through shifted jumps, fluxes, and tractions. This perspective brings scalar thermal-contact and vector-valued cohesive-zone mechanics into a single framework, the latter realized as the Shifted Cohesive Zone Method (SCZM) and coupled with history-dependent constitutive models from NEML2. We further extend the MOOSE mesh infrastructure to support cohesive-zone calculations on distributed meshes. The framework is verified and demonstrated through three progressive studies: Poisson’s equation on a smoothed starshaped domain, a manufactured thermal-contact problem on a non-interface-fitted mesh, and a two-dimensional polycrystalline representative volume element combining crystal plasticity with cohesive grain-boundary interfaces. Across these studies, the shifted formulations reproduce boundary- and interface-fitted reference solutions with high fidelity, indicating that the proposed framework provides an accurate and efficient route to boundary- and interface-dominated simulations on arbitrary geometries without requiring fitted meshes.

Yang, Cheng-Hau↗

A proposed methodology to reduce heat pump size with integrated thermal energy storage

Thermal energy storage (TES) offers a unique storage solution wherein heat is stored for later use to thermally condition an application. Heat pumps (HPs) move heat from relatively cold to a relatively hot with an input of work. Integrating TES into a HP system adds a third temperature body, and the HP can be selectively coupled to operate between any two: a constant temperature application, a temporally fluctuating ambient temperature, or a constant temperature TES. Since the HP-TES system enables operation under different conditions depending on the pair of temperature bodies, changes in efficiency and capacity can be expected. Thus, TES can shift HP operation to more favorable conditions to deliver heat to the application. Consequently, TES increases the apparent capacity of the HP which might enable a nominally smaller HP to be used effectively. This paper outlines a method by which TES can reduce the size of a HP without sacrificing heat delivered to the application. The method is demonstrated for a building cooling application which realized a reduction in nominal HP size from 3 tons to 2.4 tons.

Hirschey, Jason↗

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

Accelerated pattern matching method on a quantum computing system

A method of determining a pattern in a sequence of bits using a quantum computing system includes setting a first register of a quantum processor in a superposition of a plurality of string index states, encoding a bit string in a second register of the quantum processor, encoding a bit pattern in a third register of the quantum processor, circularly shifting qubits of the second register conditioned on the first register, amplifying an amplitude of a state combined with the first register in which the circularly shifted qubits of the second register matches qubits of the third register, measuring an amplitude of the first register and determining a string index state of the plurality of string index states associated with the amplified state, and outputting, by use of a classical computer, a string index associated with the first register in the measured state.

NIROULA, Pradeep↗