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NASA NTRS2010

The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models

In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Toward a Physical Characterization of Raindrop Collision Outcome Regimes

A comprehensive raindrop collision outcome regime diagram that delineates the physical conditions associated with the outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and different breakup types) of binary raindrop collisions is proposed. The proposed diagram builds on a theoretical regime diagram defined in the phase space of collision Weber numbers We and the drop diameter ratio p by including critical angle of impact considerations. In this study, the theoretical regime diagram is first evaluated against a comprehensive dataset for drop collision experiments representative of raindrop collisions in nature. Subsequently, the theoretical regime diagram is modified to explicitly describe the dominant regimes of raindrop interactions in (We, p) by delineating the physical conditions necessary for the occurrence of distinct types of collision-induced breakup (neck/filament, sheet, disk, and crown breakups) based on critical angle of impact consideration. Crown breakup is a subtype of disk breakup for lower collision kinetic energy that presents distinctive morphology. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of the comprehensive collision regime diagram, and conditional probabilities that can be used in the parameterization of breakup kernels in stochastic models of raindrop dynamics are provided.

Testik, F. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Real-Time Risk Assessment Framework for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM)

The new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Small Unmanned Aircraft rule (Part 107) marks the first national regulations for commercial operation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) under 55 pounds within the National Airspace System (NAS). Although sUAS flights may not be performed beyond visual line-of-sight or over non- participant structures and people, safety of sUAS operations must still be maintained and tracked at all times. Moreover, future safety-critical operation of sUAS (e.g., for package delivery) are already being conceived and tested. NASA's Unmanned Aircraft System Trac Management (UTM) concept aims to facilitate the safe use of low-altitude airspace for sUAS operations. This paper introduces the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) which was developed to provide real-time safety evaluation and tracking capability within the UTM concept. The URAF uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to propagate off -nominal condition probabilities based on real-time component failure indicators. This information is then used to assess the risk to people on the ground by calculating the potential impact area and the effects of the impact. The visual representation of the expected area of impact and the nominal risk level can assist operators and controllers with dynamic trajectory planning and execution. The URAF was applied to a case study to illustrate the concept.

Ancel, Ersin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗

NASA NTRS2006

Potential Lifestyles in Ancient Environments of Gusev Crater, Mars

Habitable environments must sustain liquid water at least intermittently and also provide both chemical building blocks and useful sources of energy for life. Observations by Spirit rover indicate that conditions have probably been too dry to sustain life, at least since the emplacement of the extensive basalts that underlie the plains around the Columbia Memorial Station landing site. Local evidence of relatively minor aqueous alteration probably occurred under conditions where the activity of water was too low to sustain biological processes as we know them. In contrast, multiple bedrock units in West Spur and Husband Hill in the Columbia Wills have been extensively altered, probably by aqueous processes. The Fe in several of these units has been extensively oxidized, indicating that, in principle, any microbiota present during the aqueous alteration of these rocks could have obtained energy from Fe oxidation. Spirit discovered oliving-rich ultramafic rocks during her descent from Husband Hill southward into Inner Basin. Alteration of similar ultramafic rocks on Earth can yield H2 that can provide both energy and reducing power for microorganisms. Spirit s discovery of "salty" soil horizons rich in Fe and/or Mg is consistent with the aqueous dissolution and/or alteration of olivine. Such processes can oxidize Fe and also yield H2 under appropriate conditions. Very high S concentrations in these salty deposits indicate that soluble salts were mobilized by water and/or that S oxidation, a potential energy source for life, occurred. The Athena team has not yet established whether these salt components were deposited as large beds in ancient water bodies or, for example, were concentrated by more recent groundwater activity. Collectively these observations are consistent with the possibility that habitable environments existed at least intermittently in the distant geologic past.

DesMarais, David J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extrapair offspring of the blue-footed booby show no sign of higher fitness in the first 10 years of life

According to the good genes and genetic compatibility hypotheses, females of socially monogamous species obtain genetic benefits for their offspring by performing extrapair copulations with males of higher quality than their social mates or males with whom they are more genetically compatible. If extrapair offspring do receive genetic benefits in the form of advantageous alleles or more compatible allele combinations, they should outperform their within-pair half-siblings' survival and/or reproductive output. Here, in this study, we followed 52 extrapair and 737 within-pair blue-footed booby, Sula nebouxii, offspring during their first 10 years of life (excluding the embryonic period and the first 10 days after hatching) to assess whether they differed in fledging probability, fledgling body condition, recruitment probability, age at first reproduction, number of breeding events or accumulated breeding success. Extrapair and within-pair offspring did not differ in any of these proxies of fitness. Furthermore, we found that extrapair offspring were equally likely to occur in any hatching position. However, differences in fledgling production over the lifetime could not be ruled out, and because only within-pair production of eggs and fledglings was tallied, the possibility remains that extrapair offspring could produce more extrapair offspring later in life than do within-pair offspring. Furthermore, the possibility of context-dependent genetic benefits occurring only under stressful conditions cannot be discounted because our sample of offspring was obtained in a single exceptionally favourable reproductive season.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Potentially Habitable Ancient Environments in Gusev Crater, Mars

Habitable environments must sustain liquid water at least intermittently and also provide both chemical building blocks and useful sources of energy for life. Observations by Spirit rover indicate that conditions have probably been too dry to sustain life, at least since the emplacement of the extensive basalts that underlie the plains around the Columbia Memorial Station landing site. Local evidence of relatively minor aqueous alteration [1] probably occurred under conditions where the activity of water was too low to sustain biological processes as we know them. In contrast, multiple bedrock units in West Spur and Husband Hill in the Columbia Hills have been extensively altered. Patterns of elemental abundances are consistent with aqueous processes involving migrating fluids [2]. Fe in several of these units has been extensively oxidized [3]. Conceivably any microbiota present during the aqueous alteration of these rocks might have obtained energy from Fe oxidation. Spirit discovered olivine-rich ultramafic rocks during her descent from Husband Hill southward into Inner Basin. Alteration of similar ultramafic rocks on Earth can yield H2 that can provide both energy and reducing power for microorganisms. Spirit's discovery of deposits rich in ferric sulfate is consistent with the aqueous dissolution and/or alteration of olivine under acidic conditions [2] such as those associated with hydrothermal activity. The oxidation of iron and sulfur that can accompany such activity can be an energy source for life. Hydrothermal systems on Earth that sustain either acidic [4] or neutral to alkaline fluids [5] have been shown to provide this energy. Collectively the observations by Spirit rover are consistent with the possibility that habitable environments existed in Gusev crater at least intermittently in the distant geologic past.

Fe oxidation↗

NASA NTRS1977

Probabilities of good, marginal, and poor flying conditions for space shuttle ferry flights

Empirical probabilities are provided for good, marginal, and poor flying weather for ferrying the Space Shuttle Orbiter from Edwards AFB, California, to Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and from Edwards AFB to Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama. Results are given by month for each overall route plus segments of each route. The criteria for defining a day as good, marginal, or poor and the method of computing the relative frequencies and conditional probabilities for monthly reference periods are described.

Whiting, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reply to “Comment on ‘The Reduced Detection Rate of Signals That Are Hidden by Earthquakes: Case Studies with Spotlight Detectors That Operate at Seismic Arrays,’ by Joshua D. Carmichael, Brent G. Delbridge, and Richard Alfaro-Diaz” by Paul G. Richards

We reply to a comment that Paul G. Richards (Richards, 2026) directed to an article by Carmichael et al. (2025). Richards expressed concern over two issues. The first issue relates to the size of the explosions discussed in the article. The second relates to the probability that earthquakes and explosions sourced near the same location coincide in time, by chance. We do not address the first issue because the original article does not assign significance to the size of the explosions from the point of view of an experimental party. We do respond to Richards’ comment on the second issue and claim that it can be explained through a clarification about conditional versus joint probabilities. Our present discussion, therefore, describes the difference between the conditional probability that a correlator fails, given that an explosion and earthquake coincidently occur in the same place, and the joint probability that a correlator fails while an earthquake and explosion also coincidentally occur in the same place. This latter, joint probability appears to be rare. We clarify that our original article did not treat the joint probability, only the conditional probability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2013

What Can the Curiosity Rover Tell Us About the Climate of Mars?

What Can the Curiosity Rover Tell Us About the Climate of Mars? Assessing the habitability of Gale Crater is the goal of the Curiosity Rover, which has been gathering data since landing on the Red Planet last August. To meet that goal, Curiosity brought with it a suite of instruments to measure the biological potential of the landing site, the geology and chemistry of its surface, and local environmental conditions. Some of these instruments illuminate the nature of the planet fs atmosphere and climate system, both for present day conditions as well as for conditions that existed billions of years ago. For present day conditions, Curiosity has a standard meteorology package that measures pressure, temperature, winds and humidity, plus a sensor the measures the UV flux. These data confirm what we learned from previous missions namely that today Mars is a cold, dry, and barren desert-like planet. For past conditions, however, wetter and probably warmer conditions are indicated. Curiosities cameras reveal gravel beds that must have formed by flowing rivers, and sedimentary deposits of layered sand and mudstones possibly associated with lakes. An ancient aqueous environment is further supported by the presence of sulfate veins coursing through some of the rocks in Yellowknife Bay where Curiosity is planning its first drilling activity. I will discuss these results and their implications in this lecture.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean↗

NASA NTRS1988

Analysis of homogeneous turbulent reacting flows

Full turbulence simulations at low Reynolds numbers were made for the single-step, irreversible, bimolecular reaction between non-premixed reactants in isochoric, decaying homogeneous turbulence. Various initial conditions for the scalar field were used in the simulations to control the initial scalar dissipation length scale, and simulations were also made for temperature-dependent reaction rates and for non-stoichiometric and unequal diffusivity conditions. Joint probability density functions (pdf's), conditional pdf's, and various statistical quantities appearing in the moment equations were computed. Preliminary analysis of the results indicates that compressive strain-rate correlates better than other dynamical quantities with local reaction rate, and the locations of peak reaction rates seem to be insensitive to the scalar field initial conditions.

Leonard, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

BODY SENSING SYSTEM

System and method for performing one or more relevant measurements at a target site in an animal body, using a probe. One or more of a group of selected internal measurements is performed at the target site, is optionally combined with one or more selected external measurements, and is optionally combined with one or more selected heuristic information items, in order to reduce to a relatively small number the probable medical conditions associated with the target site. One or more of the internal measurements is optionally used to navigate the probe to the target site. Neural net information processing is performed to provide a reduced set of probable medical conditions associated with the target site.

Mah, Robert W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1953

Icing Protection for a Turbojet Transport Airplane: Heating Requirements, Methods of Protection, and Performance Penalties

The problems associated with providing icing protection for the critical components of a typical turbojet transport airplane operating over a range of probable icing conditions are analyzed and discussed. Heating requirements for several thermal methods of protection are evaluated and the airplane performance penalties associated with providing this protection from various energy sources are assessed. The continuous heating requirements for icing protection and the associated airplane performance penalties for the turbojet transport are considerably increased over those associated with lower-speed aircraft. Experimental results show that the heating requirements can be substantially reduced by the deve1opment of a satisfactory cyclic deicing system. The problem of providing protection can be minimized by employing a proper energy source since the airplane performance penalties vary considerably with the source of energy employed. The optimum icing protection system for the turbojet transport or for any other particular aircraft cannot be generally specified; the choice of the optimum system is dependent upon the specific characteristics of the airplane and engine, the flight plan, the probable icing conditions, and the performance requirements of the aircraft.

Gelder, Thomas F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Transitions and transversions in evolutionary descent - An approach to understanding

A quantitative theoretical groundwork is presented for determining the proportions of the possible types of base substitutions observed between 12 genes sharing a common ancestor and isolated from extant species. Three methods (direct count, regression, and informational entropy maximization) are described by which conditional base substitution probabilities that determine evolutionary descent can be estimated from experimental data. These methods are utilized to study the ratio of transversions to transitions during gene divergence. The limiting ratio is directly calculated from a knowledge of the 12 conditional probabilities for each type of base substitution and from a knowledge of the equilibrium base composition of the DNAs compared. An expression is developed for this calculation. It is concluded that multiple substitutions per se do not lead to a decrease in transition differences with increasing evolutionary divergence.

Holmquist, R.↗