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At least 145 records · Page 8

A scanning radar altimeter for mapping continental topography

Topographic information constitutes a fundamental data set for the Earth sciences. In the geological and geophysical sciences, topography combined with gravitational information provides an important constraint on the structure and rheologic properties of the crust and lithosphere. Detailed topography data can also be used to map offsets associated with faulting and to reveal the effects of tectonic deformation. In the polar regions, elevation data form a crucial but as yet largely unavailable resource for studying ice sheet mass balance and ice flow dynamics. The vast Antarctic ice sheet is the largest fresh water reservoir on Earth and is an important influence on ocean circulation and global climate. However, our knowledge of its stability is so limited that we cannot even specify whether the Antarctic ice sheet is growing or shrinking. It is clear that there is need for high quality global topography data. A summary of potential applications with their resolution requirements is shown.

Dixon, T. H.↗

Time-cumulated visible and infrared histograms used as descriptor of cloud cover

To study the statistical behavior of clouds for different climate regimes, the spatial and temporal stability of VIS-IR bidimensional histograms is tested. Also, the effect of data sampling and averaging on the histogram shapes is considered; in particular the sampling strategy used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project is tested.

Seze, G.↗

Biogeochemical modeling at mass extinction boundaries

The causes of major mass extinctions is a subject of considerable interest to those concerned with the history and evolution of life on earth. The primary objectives of the proposed plan of research are: (1) to develop quantitative time-dependent biogeochemical cycle models, coupled with an ocean atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of global scale physical, chemical, and biological processes that control the distribution of elements important for life at times of mass extinctions; and (2) to develop a comprehensive data base of the best available geochemical, isotopic, and other relevant geologic data from sections across mass extinction boundaries. These data will be used to constrain and test the biogeochemical model. These modeling experiments should prove useful in: (1) determining the possible cause(s) of the environmental changes seen at bio-event boundaries; (2) identifying and quantifying little-known feedbacks among the oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere; and (3) providing additional insights into the possible responses of the earth system to perturbations of various timescales. One of the best known mass extinction events marks the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Myr ago). Data from the K/T boundary are used here to constrain a newly developed time-dependent biogeochemical cycle model that is designed to study transient behavior of the earth system. Model results predict significant fluctuations in ocean alkalinity, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures caused by extinction of calcareous plankton and reduction in the sedimentation rates of pelagic carbonates and organic carbon. Oxygen-isotome and other paleoclimatic data from K/T time provide some evidence that such climatic fluctuations may have occurred, but stabilizing feedbacks may have acted to reduce the ocean alkalinity and carbon dioxide fluctuations.

Rampino, M. R.↗

Diagnosing AIRS Sampling with CloudSat Cloud Classes

AIRS yield and sampling vary with cloud state. Careful utilization of collocated multiple satellite sensors is necessary. Profile differences between AIRS and ECMWF model analyses indicate that AIRS has high sampling and excellent accuracy for certain meteorological conditions. Cloud-dependent sampling biases may have large impact on AIRS L2 and L3 data in climate research. MBL clouds / lower tropospheric stability relationship is one example. AIRS and CloudSat reveal a reasonable climatology in the MBL cloud regime despite limited sampling in stratocumulus. Thermodynamic parameters such as EIS derived from AIRS data map these cloud conditions successfully. We are working on characterizing AIRS scenes with mixed cloud types.

model analyses↗

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Investigating carbon stabilization in soils via mineral adsorption: What are we missing when we define mineral associated organic matter

Understanding carbon (C) fluxes released from soil to atmosphere is critical to regulating global climate change. Soil minerals play a crucial role in stabilizing C, based on recent studies which have found that mineral associated C can be stored in soils for decades to centuries longer than non-mineral associated C. We aim to maximize C sequestration via mineral adsorption in soils. To achieve this objective, it is important to understand the potential impacts of C stabilization via adsorption to mineral surfaces. Particularly, investigating the quantitative impacts of C sorption to minerals is novel to understanding and implementing multi-scale biogeochemical processes of C stabilization in soils. We will conduct a literature review on potential impacts of C sorption to minerals, thereby contributing to the net C storage in soils. Our findings will allow us to quantitatively understand soil C changes and durability at molecular and ecosystem scales, fulfilling existing scientific gaps in the community as well as interests of sponsors, such as DOE-BER.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Determination of semi-arid landscape endmembers and seasonal trends using convex geometry spectral unmixing techniques

Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data were acquired during three consecutive growing seasons (26 September 1989, 22 March 1990, and 7 August 1990) over an area of the High Plains east of Greeley, Colorado (40 deg 20 min N and 104 deg 16 min W). A repeat visit to assess vegetation at its peak growth was flown on 6 June 1993. This region contains extensive eolian deposits in the form of stabilized dune complexes (small scale parabolic dunes superimposed on large scale longitudinal and parabolic dunes). Due to the dunes' large scale (2-10 km) and low relief (1-5 m), the scaling and morphological relationships that contribute to the evolution of this landscape are nearly impossible to understand without the use of remote sensing. Additionally, this area and regions similarly situated could be the first to experience the effects caused by global climate change. During the past 10,000 years there were at least four periods of extensive sand activity due to climate change, followed by periods of landscape stability, as shown in the stratigraphic record of this area.

Yuhas, Roberta H.↗

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Mohr, Karen I.↗

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

Mohr, Karen I.↗

Noise-induced transitions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP5 models

By studying transition probabilities of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models, we revisit one of the stability indicators of the AMOC, i.e. the freshwater transport carried by the AMOC at the southern boundary of the Atlantic basin. A correction to this indicator, based on the transition probabilities, is suggested to measure whether an AMOC state is in a multiple equilibrium regime or not. As a consequence, the AMOC of all CMIP5 models considered is in a multiple equilibrium regime and hence, in principle, a collapsed AMOC state should exist in each of these models. The results further demonstrate the dependence of the Atlantic surface freshwater flux on the AMOC and the impact of extreme events in the AMOC on temperatures in the North Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Long, Hard Journey: Expanding the Use of NASA Data and Models for Sustainable Development Planning Around the World

In 2007, the National Research Council's committee on Extending Observations and Research Results to Practical Applications recommended that NASA's Applied Science Program (ASP) directly engage with a broader community of users - not just federal agencies. Soon afterwards, scientists at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center began discussions on a collaborative research project with EMBARQ - the World Resource Institute's Center for Sustainable Transport. The discussions initially focused on how best to utilize satellite observations and atmospheric models for assessing the impact of a proposed transportation project on land use and air quality. Discussions exposed the participants to a broad spectrum of science and policy challenges that these diverse organizations face on a routine basis. It brought into clear focus the need for an observation-modeling system that will allow a proactive approach towards development planning, and the fact that satellite systems do not always provide the spatial and temporal resolution useful for urban-scale applications, underscoring the need for earth system models to bridge this gap. Realizing the significant risk that unplanned urbanization and climate change pose to the social and functional stability of large cities, both organizations decided to expand the scope of their preliminary discussion to include water resources and agriculture. A pilot project, funded by NASA ASP, EMBARQ and Istanbul Technical University focused on quantifying the magnitude and extent of urbanization in Istanbul, and analyzed the combined effect of urbanization and projected climate change on local climate, air quality, and its consequent effects on agricultural productivity. Preliminary results show that Istanbul has undergone a significant amount of Land Use/Land Cover change over the past two decades. While some forested areas have been lost to urban-landscapes, urbanization has mostly occurred over former croplands due to the fact that in contrast to forested areas, croplands have flat terrain, making them a more attractive target for conversion to urban land. The reduction in land area for agricultural and increase in temperature has reduced agricultural production in the vicinity of the city. The United Nations expects the world population to reach 9.2 billion by 2050. Most of this increase will be absorbed by countries that are least able to sustain it. Rapid economic growth is likely to continue and will require massive infrastructure investments. If not properly managed, the magnitude and extent of these initiatives will overwhelm sensitive ecosystems around the world. Successful relationships such as the one described here are critically important if we are to stabilize the threatened ecosystems on which human systems ultimately rely. The challenges, needs, culture, and operating environment of development planning organizations are fundamentally different from a research organization. An appreciation of these differences is a prerequisite for any successful collaboration.

Khan, Maudood↗

The persistence and conversion of coastal foredune and swale vegetation community distributions 63 years later

Vegetation shifts can directly alter habitat dynamics and indirectly impact habitat stability relative to disturbance response. Barrier island dune habitats exhibit spatiotemporally dynamic topography that is affected by vegetation. However, vegetation distribution data can be rare and vegetation persistence is largely unknown such that species turnover over in communities can occur unnoticed. This is true despite concerns and documented cases of woody encroachment related to climate change in these ecogeomorphic habitats where physical stability to resist storm erosion varies with vegetation distribution and density. In 1956 and 1957, the vegetation of Island Beach State Park, NJ, was mapped as a permanent record for subsequent ecological study. In June 2020, we remapped the vegetation of 5.4 of 17 km north to south, seaward of the thicket community boundary. We maintained the same classification system as the historic record, physically mapping vegetation patches via GPS. We quantified changes in thicket, heather, and grass community distribution between the two time periods. Habitat persistence and conversion varied in the 63 years. Heath communities saw 80%–97% habitat loss in conversion to woody thicket. Conversely, thicket community distribution drastically increased, replacing heath where it was previously prevalent. This represents the first known documented instances of woody encroachment for Morella pensylvanica. When they did not expand, thicket communities receded landward or underwent turnover to an invasive species. Woody species of interest for dune stabilization occupied areas of similar habitat characteristics. Dune vegetation distribution persistence from 1957 to 2020 was relatively consistent and stable with the exception of heath habitat conversion. Barrier island stability is directly related to vegetation stability such that understanding where community shifts might occur over time can aid in managing and modeling efforts surrounding these dynamic ecogeomorphic habitats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial production of fuels, commodity chemicals, and materials from sustainable sources of carbon and energy

Anthropogenic carbon emissions are driving rapid changes to the earth's climate, disrupting whole ecosystems and endangering the stability of human society. Innovations in engineered microbial fermentation enable the fossil resource-free production of fuels, commodity chemicals, and materials, thereby reducing the carbon emissions associated with these products. Microorganisms have been engineered to catabolize sustainable sources of carbon and energy (i.e., plant biomass, plastic waste, and one-carbon feedstocks) and biosynthesize carbon-neutral or carbon-negative products. These engineering efforts exploit and optimize natural biological pathways or generate unnatural pathways which can biosynthesize chemicals that have not yet been accessed using synthetic chemistry. Further, recent advances in microbial fermentation seek not only to maximize the titer, rate, and yield of desired products, but also to tailor microbial catabolism to utilize inexpensive feedstocks. Ultimately, these advances aim to lower the cost of bioproduction so that microorganism-derived chemicals can be economically competitive with fossil-derived chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

Antarctic lake phytoplankton and bacteria from near‐surface waters exhibit high sensitivity to climate‐driven disturbance

Abstract The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs), Antarctica, represent a cold, desert ecosystem poised on the threshold of melting and freezing water. The MDVs have experienced dramatic signs of climatic change, most notably a warm austral summer in 2001–2002 that caused widespread flooding, partial ice cover loss and lake level rise. To understand the impact of these climatic disturbances on lake microbial communities, we simulated lake level rise and ice‐cover loss by transplanting dialysis‐bagged communities from selected depths to other locations in the water column or to an open water perimeter moat. Bacteria and eukaryote communities residing in the surface waters (5 m) exhibited shifts in community composition when exposed to either disturbance, while microbial communities from below the surface were largely unaffected by the transplant. We also observed an accumulation of labile dissolved organic carbon in the transplanted surface communities. In addition, there were taxa‐specific sensitivities: cryptophytes and Actinobacteria were highly sensitive particularly to the moat transplant, while chlorophytes and several bacterial taxa increased in relative abundance or were unaffected. Our results reveal that future climate‐driven disturbances will likely undermine the stability and productivity of MDV lake phytoplankton and bacterial communities in the surface waters of this extreme environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Peatland microbial community responses to plant functional group and drought are depth-dependent

Peatlands store one-third of Earth's soil carbon, the stability of which is uncertain due to climate change-driven shifts in hydrology and vegetation, and consequent impacts on microbial communities that mediate decomposition. Peatland carbon cycling varies over steep physicochemical gradients characterizing vertical peat profiles. However, it is unclear how drought-mediated changes in plant functional groups (PFGs) and water table (WT) levels affect microbial communities at different depths. We combined a multiyear mesocosm experiment with community sequencing across a 70-cm depth gradient, to test the hypotheses that vascular PFGs (Ericaceae vs. sedges) and WT (high vs. low) structure peatland microbial communities in depth-dependent ways. Several key results emerged. (i) Both fungal and prokaryote (bacteria and archaea) community structure shifted with WT and PFG manipulation, but fungi were much more sensitive to PFG whereas prokaryotes were much more sensitive to WT. (ii) PFG effects were largely driven by Ericaceae, although sedge effects were evident in specific cases (e.g., methanotrophs). (iii) Treatment effects varied with depth: the influence of PFG was strongest in shallow peat (0-10, 10-20 cm), whereas WT effects were strongest at the surface and middle depths (0-10, 30-40 cm), and all treatment effects waned in the deepest peat (60-70 cm). Furthermore, our results underline the depth-dependent and taxon-specific ways that plant communities and hydrologic variability shape peatland microbial communities, pointing to the importance of understanding how these factors integrate across soil profiles when examining peatland responses to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗