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At least 145 records · Page 8

Impact Delivery of Reduced Greenhouse Gases on Early Mars

Reducing greenhouse gases are once again the latest trend in finding solutions to the early Mars climate dilemma. In its current form - as proposed by Ramirez et al. [1], later refined by Wordsworth et al. [2], and confirmed by Ramirez [3] - collision induced absorptions between CO2-H2 or CO2-CH4 provide enough extra greenhouse power to raise global mean surface temperatures to the melting point of water provided the atmosphere is thick enough and the reduced gases are abundant enough. To raise surface temperatures significantly by this mechanism, surface pressures must be at least 500 mb and H2 and/or CH4 concentrations must be at or above the several percent level. Both Wordsworth et al. [2] and Ramirez [3] show that the melting point can be reached in atmospheres with 1-2 bars of CO2 and 2-10% H2; smaller concentrations of H2 will suffice if CH4 is also present. If thick weakly reducing atmospheres are the solution to the faint young Sun paradox, then plausible mechanisms must be found to generate and sustain the gases. Possible sources of reducing gases include volcanic outgassing, serpentinization, and impact delivery; sinks include photolyis, oxidation, and escape to space. The viability of the reduced greenhouse hypothesis depends, therefore, on the strength of these sources and sinks.

greenhose gases↗

The future of subsurface monitoring: AEC’s breakthroughs in CCS technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a key solution in the fight against climate change. However, for CCS to succeed, it is crucial to ensure that the sequestered CO2 stays safely trapped underground. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has emphasized the need for advancements in subsurface monitoring, measurement, reporting, and verification. Aside from caprock integrity failure, the other primary failure points usually involve defective cement in the casing annulus of wellbores or plugged and abandoned wells. In addition, many energy producers (e.g., oil and gas, geothermal) and storage and disposal operators (e.g., H2 and water) must deal with the same issue. Poorly placed or degraded cement can create pathways for gas or fluid to escape from casing annuli and in plugged and abandoned or orphan wells, posing environmental risks. Yet, a reliable and cost-effective way to monitor cement and well integrity over multiple decades is still unavailable. Traditional geophysical methods like 4D seismic imaging and surface-based electromagnetic monitoring lack the resolution and accuracy for detecting these types of failures (Vasco et al., 2022; Fawad and Mondol, 2021). Wireline logging is expensive to run continuously and is obtrusive to the operation. While fiber optics can potentially be a solution, its bulkiness can significantly compromise the cement's integrity. To address these challenges, the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) at The University of Texas at Austin’s Bureau of Economic Geology (the Bureau) has been pioneering research in subsurface monitoring using its portfolio of distributed autonomous microfabricated sensors for harsh subsurface environments since 2008. A class of these microsensors [System on a Chip (SoC)] can be mixed in cement and permanently placed without compromising the cement column; the sensors would then communicate with each other or a data acquisition (DAQ) master node. Another class of the AEC microsensors can be fully autonomous, with rechargeable micro-batteries capable of exceeding 100°C, flash memory, and, currently, a pressure and temperature sensor. They are designed to circulate in mud, geothermal fluids, U-loops, or pipelines. They can log data into memory and are unobtrusive to operations. Our team has been working on a multi-year DOE-funded project (DE-FE0031856)—supported by $2.95M in federal funding and $0.75M in cost-matching from the AEC—to demonstrate SoC sensor utility for CO2 leakage monitoring in CCS applications. This multi-institutional collaboration developed a novel sensing architecture utilizing radiofrequency (RF) microsensors embedded within the cement sheath. These sensors detect CO2 migration and are interrogated via a Smart Casing Collar (SCC).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

B. D. Loomis↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

Loomis, B. D.↗

Building and grid system benefits of demand flexibility and energy efficiency

The global electricity system is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Technology advancements in clean energy generation (e.g., solar photovoltaics and wind) and electrified demand (e.g., transportation and building heating) are providing a cost-competitive pathway to mitigate the urgent and severe consequences associated with a changing climate. In addition, as extreme events continue to increase in frequency and magnitude, solutions are needed for adapting to the current climate. Through energy efficiency and demand flexibility, buildings play a prominent role in meeting these challenges; recently in Joule, a paper by Langevin et al. provides clear insight into the magnitude of buildings’ technical potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

RDPP: Accelerating Diversity in DOE Climate Science and Resilience Research (Final Report)

The scope of the project was set out to accelerate the inclusion of diversity into the Department of Energy (DOE) Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) relevant climate science and resilience research to inclusively advance solutions. The Project Objectives were to usher in equitable use-inspired climate-related research with underrepresented Minorities of which this project helped fund 7 HU graduate students work with the DOE (three of which will graduate in Spring 2025). The two key aims underpinning that core goal were AIM1: developing partnerships (18 organized engaged, see partners list) and AIM2: Developing capabilities (3 visits to DOE facilities, 5 DOE partners visits to HU, increased visiting faculty participation in BNL-DOE lab, secured 5 grants together totaling 1.2 million in funds for HU). The project objectives were highly successful as they were designed to ambitiously pull together DOE lab researchers with the long-standing and successful transdisciplinary climate science research programs of the PI and local DC groups. The major outcomes of this RDPP program will be in the new fundamentally inclusive partnerships with DOE and HU tasked to understand the urban-rural impacts due to climate change in the US, Eastern South Atlantic (ESA) Region, related to energy issues driven by heat stress and the water cycle. Overall, this project contributes to the DOE and science community vision for catalyze connections for project-ready underrepresented minorities (URMs) at a prominent HBCU to DOE projects supported by the Biological and Environmental research (BER) Program; particularly, the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable diesel and bio-aromatics production from waste cooking oil using ethanol as a hydrogen donor in deoxygenation reaction

Biofuels offer a promising solution in the fight against climate change. With a global increase in waste cooking oil, this research investigated the production of bio-hydrogenated diesel (BHD) from waste cooking oil, using ethanol as a hydrogen donor in the deoxygenation process. A hydrolyzed waste cooking oil model compound served as the feedstock, and the deoxygenation was performed at 300–400 °C. The catalysts used in the experiments were 2.6 wt% Ni and 7.8 wt% Mo (2.6Ni-7.8Mo) and 10 wt% Ni and 5 wt% Mo (10Ni-5Mo) on γ-Al 2 O 3 . The results showed that ethanol is an effective hydrogen donor for biofuel production without the need for external hydrogen at an elevated pressure. The increasing temperature enhanced the free fatty acid (FFA) conversion and n-alkane selectivity in the oil product, with the highest FFA conversion and alkane selectivity of 100 % and 46 %, respectively, observed at 400 °C for the sulfided 10Ni-5Mo catalyst. On the other hand, 2.6Ni-7.8Mo offers 100 % FFA conversion with a lower n-alkane selectivity of 35 % at identical temperatures. The total acid number (TAN) of the oil products decreased from 174.03 mg KOH/g of feedstock to 9.43 and 8.67 mg KOH/g with the sulfided 2.6Ni-7.8Mo and 10Ni-5Mo catalysts, respectively. Both the catalysts achieved similar heating values (~43 MJ/kg) at 400 °C. This is a significant improvement to the HHV of the feedstock, which was 36.02 MJ/kg. Additionally, aromatic compounds, mainly BTXE (benzene, toluene, xylene, and ethylbenzene), were also produced. Compared to glycerol as a hydrogen donor, ethanol more effectively increased n-alkane selectivity due to its higher effective hydrogen-to-carbon ratio (H/C eff ). Conversely, glycerol was more advantageous for achieving greater selectivity towards BTXE compounds due to its lower H/C eff , which potentially leads to coke formation. Since aromatic compounds are intermediates in coke production, glycerol provides higher aromatic selectivity than ethanol. Finally, this study presents an alternative pathway for producing diesel fuel from waste cooking oil using ethanol as a hydrogen donor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Alternate Fuels for Use in Commercial Aircraft

The engine and aircraft Research and Development (R&D) communities have been investigating alternative fueling in near-term, midterm, and far-term aircraft. A drop in jet fuel replacement, consisting of a kerosene (Jet-A) and synthetic fuel blend, will be possible for use in existing and near-term aircraft. Future midterm aircraft may use a biojet and synthetic fuel blend in ultra-efficient airplane designs. Future far-term engines and aircraft in 50-plus years may be specifically designed to use a low- or zero-carbon fuel. Synthetic jet fuels from coal, natural gas, or other hydrocarbon feedstocks are very similar in performance to conventional jet fuel, yet the additional CO2 produced during the manufacturing needs to be permanently sequestered. Biojet fuels need to be developed specifically for jet aircraft without displacing food production. Envisioned as midterm aircraft fuel, if the performance and cost liabilities can be overcome, biofuel blends with synthetic jet or Jet-A fuels have near-term potential in terms of global climatic concerns. Long-term solutions address dramatic emissions reductions through use of alternate aircraft fuels such as liquid hydrogen or liquid methane. Either of these new aircraft fuels will require an enormous change in infrastructure and thus engine and airplane design. Life-cycle environmental questions need to be addressed.

Daggett, David L.↗

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advancing Urban Water Resilience: Coproducing Knowledge through Civic–Academic Global Partnerships on Water and Climate

As extreme weather events become more pronounced, the vulnerabilities associated with the urban water supply and wastewater systems in megacities are intensified in multiple interconnected dimensions. These multifaceted water challenges can benefit from enhanced cross-sectoral collaboration and sharing of critical knowledge, which are essential for sustainable and adaptive water governance frameworks. In this context, the Megacity Alliance for Water and Climate (MAWAC)–Europe and North America Region (ENAR) Working Group convened a workshop in March 2023, followed by a subsequent workshop in London, United Kingdom, from 11 to 13 September 2024. These workshops aimed to investigate and devise solutions for the cascading hazards with water systems. The solutions examined various aspects focused on climate adaptation and mitigation, stormwater management, and the governance of water and wastewater systems. Additionally, discussions highlighted the importance of community engagement, economic considerations, equity, and effective communication in addressing these pressing challenges. Over the course of 3 days, experts from academia, government agencies, and industry engaged in meaningful discussions on digital modeling for integrated water management, climate-informed urban planning, and public–private–academic partnerships (Fig. 1). Case studies from cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, and Chicago highlighted innovative governance strategies for managing water and wastewater systems, promoting water reuse, planning infrastructure, and fostering stakeholder-driven and stakeholder-informed adaptation. The workshop participants emphasized the need for data-driven decision-making, scalable governance models, and knowledge-sharing networks to enhance urban water governance for sustainability and resilience. This workshop report presents the key takeaways from the 3-day convening, providing a roadmap for integrating scientific research, policy frameworks, and emerging technologies to address water challenges faced by megacities.

Hydrologic models↗

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Effect of Solution Chemistries and Freezing Temperatures on the Morphology of Cryogenic Opal-A (COA): Implications for Past Climates on Mars

Cryogenic opal-A (COA) is a type of hydrated amorphous silica that forms when silica-rich geothermal fluids erupt sub-aerially and are exposed to air temperatures below 0 °C. As the fluid cools and water-ice forms, the solution increases in ionic strength and reaches saturation of opal-A. This results in the precipitation of opal-A between water ice crystals. Natural COA is found embedded within frozen fluids near hydrothermal sources, and has been shown to preserve signs of biological activity. In this study, two solution chemistries (hydrochloric acid (HCl) and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)) and three freezing temperatures (-20, -80, -196 ºC) were used to synthesize COA in the lab. SEM analyses showed that COA frozen at -20 ºC in HCl solutions produced smooth silica branches similar to what was observed in previous studies. COA precipitated at lower freezing temperatures demonstrated progressively smaller particle sizes and unique morphologies such as halite dendrites within silica, desiccation cracks, and pores. COA made in H2SO4 solutions was more angular and fragmented than COA made in HCl solutions. Particle size also decreased with decreasing freezing temperature. COA textures have implications for terrestrial samples as well as future samples returned from Mars because they can provide information about past climate and fluid chemistry.

J V Hogancamp↗

Climate stability for a Sellers-type model

We study a diffusive energy-balance climate model governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation. Three positive steady-state solutions of this equation are found; they correspond to three possible climates of our planet: an interglacial (nearly identical to the present climate), a glacial, and a completely ice-covered earth. We consider also models similar to the main one studied, and determine the number of their steady states. All the models have albedo continuously varying with latitude and temperature, and entirely diffusive horizontal heat transfer. The diffusion is taken to be nonlinear as well as linear. We investigate the stability under small perturbations of the main model's climates. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the 'present climate' and the 'deep freeze' are stable, whereas the model's glacial is unstable. A variational principle is introduced to confirm the results of this stability analysis. For a sufficient decrease in solar radiation (about 2%) the glacial and interglacial solutions disappear, leaving the ice-covered earth as the only possible climate.

Ghil, M.↗

Is Bias Correction in Dynamical Downscaling Defensible?

Localized projections of 21st‐century hydroclimate variables obtained from downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) output are central to informing regional impact assessments and infrastructure planning. Regional GCM biases can be significant and, for dynamical downscaling, can be addressed either before (a priori) or after (a posteriori) downscaling. However, a priori bias correction (APBC) has generally unexplored effects on climate change signals. Here we analyze dynamically downscaled solutions of CMIP6 GCMs over the Western U.S., with and without APBC, and quantify APBC's impact on climate change signals relative to other irreducible uncertainty sources. For temperature and precipitation, the uncertainty introduced by APBC is negligible compared to that arising from GCM choice or internal variability. Furthermore, APBC greatly reduces regional models' unrealistically high snow‐water‐equivalent (SWE) biases that result directly from GCM errors. We leverage this finding to encourage the dynamical downscaling community to adopt APBC as a standard operating procedure.

Risser, Mark D.↗

Development of a Daily GRACE Mascon Solution for Terrestrial Water Storage

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On missions have provided a global history of terrestrial water storage changes since 2002. Traditional GRACE products resolve monthly time-variable gravity at spatial resolutions of 300-500 km, with many recent efforts focusing on regularized mass concentration (mascon) solutions to better resolve signals spatially. However, monthly resolution inhibits the applicability of GRACE to investigations of sub-monthly signals. This study presents a new daily mass change solution estimated as deviations from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) converged monthly mascon product and quantifies the fundamental trade-off between temporal and spatial resolution in GRACE-only solutions. As an iteration of the GSFC product, this daily solution represents a mixing of monthly information at higher relative spatial resolution with daily information at lower relative spatial resolution, resolving each temporal scale at the best resolution achievable without requiring hydrological model dependencies in the estimation. The resolution of the daily mascons is 300-400 km at high latitudes and 600-1,000 km lower, depending on each daily orbital track and the proximity of each mascon to constraint region boundaries (e.g., coastlines). Through simulations and model comparisons, we demonstrate that daily signals over areas larger than 400,000 km(2) are recoverable, with basins larger than 800,000 km(2) exhibiting strong signal recovery relative to leakage. This analysis establishes baselines for daily signal recovery from GRACE in the context of longer time scale solutions, characterizes leakage inherent in daily GRACE information, and creates new opportunities for applying GRACE to investigations of sub-monthly signals.

M. J. Croteau↗

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

Among 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, approximately 42% have poor or no insulation. Envelope retrofits of these buildings will provide thermal resiliency and enable a pathway to electrification of space heating systems as a result of improved thermal performance. Hydronic Shell (HS) is a technology which combines an insulated retrofit panel with a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) thus enabling both envelope retrofit and space heating electrification. In this study, we used whole building energy simulation to evaluate energy impact of multi-family building retrofit with hydronic shell system. The simulation was performed for four locations of New York, Syracuse, Chicago and Boston. The results from the simulation showed more than 66% cooling energy reduction and more than 88% heating energy reduction from Hydronic Shell retrofit compared to Baseline building in all four locations. This reduction in energy consumption resulted in up to 219 MT reduction in annual CO2 emission. The cost reduction per floor area achieved from HVAC energy consumption reduction using Hydronic Shell retrofit was 0.66 to 0.99 $\$$/ft 2 . The results also showed higher percentage of heating energy reduction comes from the envelope only retrofit and higher percentage of cooling energy reduction comes from the retrofit HVAC system for the four locations under study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

According to the 2020 residential energy consumption survey, there are 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, and approximately 42% of these have poor or no insulation (US EIA 2020). Electrification of buildings with heat pump is one of the key strategies to achieve the goal of 90% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in buildings by 2050 (U.S. Department of Energy 2024a). Building electrification will also enable greater penetration of variable renewable energy sources. However, replacing the natural gas dominated heating system by electrical appliance will increase the electrical load in heating dominated climate. It is crucial to well-insulate the building envelope to mitigate the stress in the grid from electrification. The hydronic shell (HS) system discussed next can achieve dual objective of envelope retrofit with space heating system electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

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