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At least 145 records · Page 8

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of Clouds and Radiation in a Large-Scale Atmospheric Model Using a Cloud Vertical Structure Classification

We revisit the concept of the cloud vertical structure (CVS) classes we have previously employed to classify the planet's cloudiness (Oreopoulos et al., 2017). The CVS classification reflects simple combinations of simultaneous cloud occurrence in the three standard layers traditionally used to separate low, middle, and high clouds and was applied to a dataset derived from active lidar and cloud radar observations. This classification is now introduced in an atmospheric global climate model, specifically a version of NASA's GEOS-5, in order to evaluate the realism of its cloudiness and of the radiative effects associated with the various CVS classes. Such classes can be defined in GEOS-5 thanks to a sub column cloud generator paired with the model's radiative transfer algorithm, and their associated radiative effects can be evaluated against observations. We find that the model produces 50% more clear skies than observations in relative terms and produces isolated high clouds that are slightly less frequent than in observations, but optically thicker, yielding excessive planetary and surface cooling. Low clouds are also brighter than in observations, but underestimates of the frequency of occurrence (by ~20% in relative terms) help restore radiative agreement with observations. Overall the model better reproduces the longwave radiative effects of the various CVS classes because cloud vertical location is substantially constrained in the CVS framework.

Lee, Dongmin↗

How well can we Measure the Vertical Profile of Tropospheric Aerosol Extinction?

The recent Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol Intensive Operations Period (MOP, May 2003) yielded one of the best measurement sets obtained to-date to assess our ability to measure the vertical profile of ambient aerosol extinction sigma(sub ep)(lambda) in the lower troposphere. During one month, a heavily instrumented aircraft with well characterized aerosol sampling ability carrying well proven and new aerosol instrumentation, devoted most of the 60 available flight hours to flying vertical profiles over the heavily instrumented ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Climate Research Facility (CRF). This allowed us to compare vertical extinction profiles obtained from 6 different instuments: airborne Sun photometer (AATS-14), airborne nephelometer/absorption photometer, airborne cavity ring-down system, ground-based Raman lidar and 2 ground-based elastic backscatter lidars. We find the in-situ measured sigma(sub ep)(lambda) to be lower than the AATS-14 derived values. Bias differences are 0.002 - 0.004 K/m equivalent to 12-17% in the visible, or 45% in the near-infrared. On the other hand, we find that with respect to AATS-14, the lidar sigma(sub ep)(lambda) are higher. An unnoticed loss of sensitivity of the Raman lidar had occurred leading up to AIOP and we expect better agreement from the recently restored system looking at the collective results from 6 field campaigns conducted since 1996, airborne in situ measurements of sigma(sub ep)(lambda) tend to be biased slightly low (17% at visible wavelengths) when compared to airborne Sun photometer sigma(sub ep)(lambda). On the other hand, sigma(sub ep)(lambda) values derived from lidars tend to have no or positive biases. From the bias differences we conclude that the typical systematic error associated with measuring the tropospheric vertical profile of the ambient aerosol extinction with current state of-the art instrumentation is 15-20% at visible wavelengths and potentially larger in the UV and near-infrared.

Schmid, Beat↗

River sinuosity describes a continuum between randomness and ordered growth

River channels are among the most common landscape features on Earth. An essential characteristic of channels is sinuosity: their tendency to take a circuitous path, which is quantified as along-stream length divided by straight-line length. River sinuosity is interpreted as a characteristic that either forms randomly at channel inception or develops over time as meander bends migrate. Studies tend to assume the latter and thus have used river sinuosity as a proxy for both modern and ancient environmental factors including climate, tectonics, vegetation, and geologic structure. But no quantitative criterion for planform expression has distinguished between random, initial sinuosity and that developed by ordered growth through channel migration. This ambiguity calls into question the utility of river sinuosity for understanding Earth’s history. We propose a quantitative framework to reconcile these competing explanations for river sinuosity. Using a coupled analysis of modeled and natural channels, we show that while a majority of observed sinuosity is consistent with randomness and limited channel migration, rivers with sinuosity ≥1.5 likely formed their geometry through sustained, ordered growth due to channel migration. This criterion frames a null hypothesis for river sinuosity that can be applied to evaluate the significance of environmental interpretations in landscapes shaped by rivers. The quantitative link between sinuosity and channel migration further informs strategies for preservation and restoration of riparian habitat and guides predictions of fluvial deposits in the rock record and in remotely sensed environments from the seafloor to planetary surfaces.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrological connectivity: a review and emerging strategies for integrating measurement, modeling, and management

This review synthesizes methods for measuring, modeling, and managing hydrologic connectivity, offering pathways to improve practices and address environmental challenges (e.g., climate change) and sustainability. As a key driver of water movement and nutrient cycling, hydrologic connectivity influences flood mitigation, water quality regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, traditional field-based methods (e.g., dye tracing), indirect measurements (e.g., runoff analysis), and remote sensing techniques (e.g., InSAR) often struggle to capture the complexity of catchment-scale interactions. Similarly, modeling approaches—including process-based and percolation theory-based models, graph theory, and entropy-based metrics—face limitations in fully representing these interconnected processes. Both modeling and measurement techniques are constrained by inadequate spatial and temporal coverage, high data demands, computational complexity, and difficulties in representing subsurface connectivity. Subsequently, we critique current management practices that prioritize isolated variables (e.g., streamflow, sediment transport) over system-wide strategies and emphasize the need for adaptive, connectivity-based approaches in water resource planning and restoration. Moving forward, we highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, technological innovations (e.g., AI-driven modeling, real-time monitoring), and integrated frameworks to improve connectivity measurement, modeling, and adaptive management to restore fragmented hydrologic networks. This integrated approach sets the stage for transformative water resource management, fostering proactive policy development and stakeholder engagement.

Dwivedi, Dipankar↗

Everglades Ecological Forecasting II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance the Capabilities of Everglades National Park to Monitor & Predict Mangrove Extent to Aid Current Restoration Efforts

Mangroves act as a transition zone between fresh and salt water habitats by filtering and indicating salinity levels along the coast of the Florida Everglades. However, dredging and canals built in the early 1900s depleted the Everglades of much of its freshwater resources. In an attempt to assist in maintaining the health of threatened habitats, efforts have been made within Everglades National Park to rebalance the ecosystem and adhere to sustainably managing mangrove forests. The Everglades Ecological Forecasting II team utilized Google Earth Engine API and satellite imagery from Landsat 5, 7, and 8 to continuously create land-change maps over a 25 year period, and to allow park officials to continue producing maps in the future. In order to make the process replicable for project partners at Everglades National Park, the team was able to conduct a supervised classification approach to display mangrove regions in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. As freshwater was depleted, mangroves encroached further inland and freshwater marshes declined. The current extent map, along with transition maps helped create forecasting models that show mangrove encroachment further inland in the year 2030 as well. This project highlights the changes to the Everglade habitats in relation to a changing climate and hydrological changes throughout the park.

Kirk, Donnie↗

Cloud-Based Solutions for Monitoring Coastal Ecosystems and Prioritization of Restoration Efforts Across Belize

In recent years the availability of automated change detection algorithms in Google Earth Engine has permitted cloud-based processing of large time series of satellite imagery. Models such as the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC), CCDC-Spectral Mixture Analysis (CCDC-SMA), and Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) allow users to exploit decades of Earth Observations (EO) , leveraging the Landsat archive and data from other sensors to detect disturbance in forest ecosystems. Despite the wide adoption of these methods, robust documentation and growing community of users, little research has explored their use in mangrove environments. Mangroves are dynamic environments subject to changes due to not only the natural migration of mudflats but also coastal erosion, urban expansion, aquaculture practices, etc. This work aims to identify best practices for the application of these models to identify and monitor changes in the Belizean mangroves, which experienced an estimated 5.4% decrease in extent between 1980 and 2017 (Cherrington et al. 2020). Partnering directly with the Belizean Forest Department, our team will develop a replicable, efficient methodology to annually update the country’s mangrove extent employing EO-based change detection. This collaboration supports Belize’s marine conservation and climate resilience efforts, such as its Blue Bond agreement with the Nature Conservancy, building on national processes to monitor these critical ecosystems.

Mangroves↗

Proceedings of the 40th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference

The 40th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference included sessions on: Phoenix: Exploration of the Martian Arctic; Origin and Early Evolution of the Moon; Comet Wild 2: Mineralogy and More; Astrobiology: Meteorites, Microbes, Hydrous Habitats, and Irradiated Ices; Phoenix: Soil, Chemistry, and Habitability; Planetary Differentiation; Presolar Grains: Structures and Origins; SPECIAL SESSION: Venus Atmosphere: Venus Express and Future Missions; Mars Polar Caps: Past and Present; SPECIAL SESSION: Lunar Missions: Results from Kaguya, Chang'e-1, and Chandrayaan-1, Part I; 5 Early Nebula Processes and Models; SPECIAL SESSION: Icy Satellites of Jupiter and Saturn: Cosmic Gymnasts; Mars: Ground Ice and Climate Change; SPECIAL SESSION: Lunar Missions: Results from Kaguya, Chang'e-1, and Chandrayaan-1, Part II; Chondrite Parent-Body Processes; SPECIAL SESSION: Icy Satellites of Jupiter and Saturn: Salubrious Surfaces; SNC Meteorites; Ancient Martian Crust: Primary Mineralogy and Aqueous Alteration; SPECIAL SESSION: Messenger at Mercury: A Global Perspective on the Innermost Planet; CAIs and Chondrules: Records of Early Solar System Processes; Small Bodies: Shapes of Things to Come; Sulfur on Mars: Rocks, Soils, and Cycling Processes; Mercury: Evolution and Tectonics; Venus Geology, Volcanism, Tectonics, and Resurfacing; Asteroid-Meteorite Connections; Impacts I: Models and Experiments; Solar Wind and Genesis: Measurements and Interpretation; Mars: Aqueous Processes; Magmatic Volatiles and Eruptive Conditions of Lunar Basalts; Comparative Planetology; Interstellar Matter: Origins and Relationships; Impacts II: Craters and Ejecta Mars: Tectonics and Dynamics; Mars Analogs I: Geological; Exploring the Diversity of Lunar Lithologies with Sample Analyses and Remote Sensing; Chondrite Accretion and Early History; Science Instruments for the Mars Science Lander; . Martian Gullies: Morphology and Origins; Mars: Dunes, Dust, and Wind; Mars: Volcanism; Early Solar System Chronology; Seek Out and Explore: Upcoming and Future Missions; Mars: Early History and Impact Processes; Mars Analogs II: Chemical and Spectral; Achondrites and their Parent Bodies; and Planning for Future Exploration of the Moon The poster sessions were: Lunar Missions: Results from Kaguya, Chang'e-1, and Chandrayaan-1; LRO and LCROSS; Geophysical Analysis of the Lunar Surface and Interior; Remote Observation and Geologic Mapping of the Lunar Surface; Lunar Spectroscopy; Venus Geology, Geophysics, Mapping, and Sampling; Planetary Differentiation; Bunburra and Buzzard Coulee: Recent Meteorite Falls; Meteorites: Terrestrial History; CAIs and Chondrules: Records of Early Solar System Processes; Volatile and Organic Compounds in Chondrites; Crashing Chondrites: Impact, Shock, and Melting; Ureilite Studies; Petrology and Mineralogy of the SNC Meteorites; Martian Meteorites; Phoenix Landing Site: Perchlorate and Other Tasty Treats; Mars Polar Atmospheres and Climate Modeling; Mars Polar Investigations; Mars Near-Surface Ice; Mars: A Volatile-Rich Planet; Mars: Geochemistry and Alteration Processes; Martian Phyllosilicates: Identification, Formation, and Alteration; Astrobiology; Instrument Concepts, Systems, and Probes for Investigating Rocks and Regolith; Seeing is Believing: UV, VIS, IR, X- and Gamma-Ray Camera and Spectrometer Instruments; Up Close and Personal: In Situ Analysis with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy and Mass Spectrometry; Jupiter and Inscrutable Io; Tantalizing Titan; Enigmatic Enceladus and Intriguing Iapetus; Icy Satellites: Cryptic Craters; Icy Satellites: Gelid Geology/Geophysics; Icy Satellites: Cool Chemistry and Spectacular Spectroscopy; Asteroids and Comets; Comet Wild 2: Mineralogy and More; Hypervelocity Impacts: Stardust Models, LDEF, and ISPE; Presolar Grains; Early Nebular Processes: Models and Isotopes; Solar Wind and Genesis: Measurements and Interpretation; Education and Public Outreach; Mercury; Pursuing Lunar Exploration; Sources and Eruptionf Lunar Basalts; Chemical and Physical Properties of the Lunar Regolith; Lunar Dust and Transient Surface Phenomena; Lunar Databases and Data Restoration; Meteoritic Samples of the Moon; Chondrites, Their Clasts, and Alteration; Achondrites: Primitive and Not So Primitive; Iron Meteorites; Meteorite Methodology; Antarctic Micrometeorites; HEDs and Vesta; Dust Formation and Transformation; Interstellar Organic Matter; Early Solar System Chronology; Comparative Planetology; Impacts I: Models and Experiments; Impacts II: Craters and Ejecta; Mars: Volcanism; Mars: Tectonics and Dynamics; Martian Stratigraphy: Understanding the Geologic History of Mars Through the Sedimentary Rock Record; Mars: Valleys and Valley Networks; Mars: Aqueous Processes in Valles Marineris and the Southern Highlands; Mars: Aqueous Geomorphology; Martian Gullies: Morphology and Origins; Mars: Dunes, Dust, and Wind; Mars: Remote Sensing; Mars: Geologic Mapping, Photogrammetry, and Cratering; Martian Mineralogy: Constraints from Missions and Laboratory Investigations; Mars Analogs: Chemical and Physical; Mars Analogs: Sulfates and Sulfides; Missions: Approaches, Architectures, Analogs, and Actualities; Not Just Skin Deep: Electron Microscopy, Heat Flow, Radar, and Seismology Instruments and Planetary Data Systems, Techniques, and Interpretation.

Source record↗

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗

How Well do State-of-the-Art Techniques Measuring the Vertical Profile of Tropospheric Aerosol Extinction Compare?

The recent Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol Intensive Operations Period (AIOP, May 2003) yielded one of the best measurement sets obtained to date to assess our ability to measure the vertical profile of ambient aerosol extinction sigma(ep)(lambda) in the lower troposphere. During one month, a heavily instrumented aircraft with well-characterized aerosol sampling ability carrying well-proven and new aerosol instrumentation devoted most of the 60 available flight hours to flying vertical profiles over the heavily instrumented ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Climate Research Facility (CRF). This allowed us to compare vertical extinction profiles obtained from six different instruments: airborne Sun photometer (AATS-14), airborne nephelometer/absorption photometer, airborne cavity ring-down system, groundbased Raman lidar, and two ground-based elastic backscatter lidars. We find the in situ measured sigma(ep)(lambda) to be lower than the AATS-14 derived values. Bias differences are 0.002-0.004 Km!1 equivalent to 13-17% in the visible, or 45% in the near-infrared. On the other hand, we find that with respect to AATS-14, the lidar sigma(ep)(lambda) are higher: Bias differences are 0.004 Km(-1) (13%) and 0.007 Km(-1) (24%) for the two elastic backscatter lidars (MPLNET and MPLARM, lambda = 523 nm) and 0.029 Km(-1) (54%) for the Raman lidar (lambda = 355 nm). An unnoticed loss of sensitivity of the Raman lidar had occurred leading up to AIOP, and we expect better agreement from the recently restored system. Looking at the collective results from six field campaigns conducted since 1996, airborne in situ measurements of sigma(ep)(lambda) tend to be biased slightly low (17% at visible wavelengths) when compared to airborne Sun photometer sigma(ep)(lambda). On the other hand, sigma(ep)(lambda) values derived from lidars tend to have no or positive biases. From the bias differences we conclude that the typical systematic error associated with measuring the tropospheric vertical profile of the ambient aerosol extinction with current state-of-the-art instrumentation is 15-20% at visible wavelengths and potentially larger in the UV and near-infrared.

Schmid, B.↗

Extraction of Martian valley networks from digital topography

We have developed a novel method for delineating valley networks on Mars. The valleys are inferred from digital topography by an autonomous computer algorithm as drainage networks, instead of being manually mapped from images. Individual drainage basins are precisely defined and reconstructed to restore flow continuity disrupted by craters. Drainage networks are extracted from their underlying basins using the contributing area threshold method. We demonstrate that such drainage networks coincide with mapped valley networks verifying that valley networks are indeed drainage systems. Our procedure is capable of delineating and analyzing valley networks with unparalleled speed and consistency. We have applied this method to 28 Noachian locations on Mars exhibiting prominent valley networks. All extracted networks have a planar morphology similar to that of terrestrial river networks. They are characterized by a drainage density of approx.0.1/km, low in comparison to the drainage density of terrestrial river networks. Slopes of "streams" in Martian valley networks decrease downstream at a slower rate than slopes of streams in terrestrial river networks. This analysis, based on a sizable data set of valley networks, reveals that although valley networks have some features pointing to their origin by precipitation-fed runoff erosion, their quantitative characteristics suggest that precipitation intensity and/or longevity of past pluvial climate were inadequate to develop mature drainage basins on Mars.

Stepinski, T. F.↗

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Breininger, David R.↗

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗

Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US

The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Patterns and Controls on Island-Wide Aboveground Biomass Accumulation in Second-Growth Forests of Puerto Rico

Understanding the heterogeneity of biomass accumulation in second-growth tropical forests following land use abandonment is important for informing ecosystem carbon models and forest restoration efforts. There is an urgent need for a broad sample of second-growth forests to enhance our knowledge of carbon accumulation in human-dominated landscapes, especially for older forests. Puerto Rico has predominantly second-growth forests, ranging in age from approximately 25 to more than 80 years. We used an island-wide sample of airborne lidar from the NASA Goddard Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager collected on March 2017, forest inventory data, and data on forest age, precipitation, soils, and land use to estimate aboveground biomass stocks in moist and wet, second-growth tropical forests. Biomass accumulation rates in Puerto Rico were lower, on average, than in other Neotropical forests. Median biomass across >16,700 ha of older second-growth forests was 105 Mg ha−1, and sampled biomass rarely surpassed 250 Mg ha−1. Differences in biomass by age were large and persistent across different substrates and land uses, with a plateau in the pattern of island-wide biomass accumulation after about 33 years. A spatial regression model showed that multiple factors were related to biomass accumulation, including time since abandonment, geologic substrate, past land use as coffee or pasture, precipitation, topographic wetness index, and slope. Our findings have important consequences for the total carbon storage and expected climate mitigation benefits of large-scale reforestation efforts, and highlight the value of airborne lidar for quantifying biomass variability in complex tropical landscapes.

Sebastián Martinuzzi↗

Making an Informed Decision on Freshwater Management by Integrating Remote Sensing Data with Traditional Data

The US National Research Council (NRC) recommended that: "The U.S. government, working in concert with the private sector, academe, the public, and its international partners, should renew its investment in Earth-observing systems and restore its leadership in Earth science and applications." in response to the NASA Earth Science Division's request to prioritize research areas, observations, and notional missions to make those objectives. In this presentation, we will discuss our approach to connect remote sensing science to decision support applications by establishing a framework to integrate direct measurements, earth system models, inventories, and other information to accurately estimate fresh water resources in global, regional, and local scales. We will discuss our demonstration projects and lessons learned from the experience. Deploying a monitoring system that offers sustained, accurate, transparent and relevant information represents a challenge and opportunity to a broad community spanning earth science, water resource accounting and public policy. An introduction to some of the scientific and technical infrastructure issues associated with monitoring systems is offered here to encourage future treatment of these topics by other contributors as a concluding remark.

climate↗

Aitken Mode Aerosols Buffer Decoupled Mid‐Latitude Boundary Layer Clouds Against Precipitation Depletion

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are a leading source of uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. Remote marine boundary layers where accumulation mode (~100–400 nm diameter) aerosol concentrations are relatively low are very susceptible to aerosol changes. These regions also experience heightened Aitken mode aerosol (~10–100 nm) concentrations associated with ocean biology. Aitken aerosols may significantly influence cloud properties and evolution by replenishing cloud condensation nuclei and droplet number lost through precipitation (i.e., Aitken buffering). We use a large-eddy simulation with an Aitken-mode enabled microphysics scheme to examine the role of Aitken buffering in a mid-latitude decoupled boundary layer cloud regime observed on 15 July 2017 during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic flight campaign: cumulus rising into stratocumulus under elevated Aitken concentrations (~100–200 mg -1 ). In situ measurements are used to constrain and evaluate this case study. Our simulation accurately captures observed aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and reveals time-evolving processes driving regime development and evolution. Aitken activation into the accumulation mode in the cumulus layer provides a reservoir for turbulence and convection to carry accumulation aerosols into the drizzling stratocumulus layer above. Further Aitken activation occurs aloft in the stratocumulus layer. Together, these activation events buffer this cloud regime against precipitation removal, reducing cloud break-up and associated increases in heterogeneity. We examine cloud evolution sensitivity to initial aerosol conditions. With halved accumulation number, Aitken aerosols restore accumulation concentrations, maintain droplet number similar to original values, and prevent cloud break-up. Without Aitken aerosols, precipitation-driven cloud break-up occurs rapidly. In this regime, Aitken buffering sustains brighter, more homogeneous clouds for longer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗