Observed vegetation-climate feedbacks in the Australian and Chinese monsoon regions
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Notaro, Michael↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Hawaii Climate: Utilizing Earth Observations to Delineate Wetland Extents, Model Sea Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands
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Lisa Tanh↗
Hawaii Climate Utilizing Earth Observations to Assess Thermal Stress Impacts on Coastal Hawaiian Fishponds
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Raz Wachtel↗
Thermal Precursors to Regional Dust Storms on Mars: Observations With Mars Climate Sounder
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H. Pieris↗
Earth Observation Data Provenance for Future Climate Research - Requirements and Challenges
Observations and measurements of the Earth’s environment have been collected from space since the 1960’s. Flight Projects, airborne and field campaigns have developed and operated multi-year missions with global observing instruments, and Principle Investigator Science Teams have developed algorithms, calibrated, and derived a wide variety of Earth system environmental parameters. These data are archived and distributed for research purposes by NASA’s ESDIS Project and Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). They are expected to be an important basis for Earth science and climate change research extending well beyond their observation times, the Principle Investigators/Science Teams research projects and life of the Flight Projects.
John Moses↗
Climate studies from satellite observations - Special problems in the verification of earth radiation balance, cloud climatology, and related climate experiments
A body of techniques that have been developed and planned for use during the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), and related climate experiments of the 1980's are reviewed. Validation and verification methods must apply for systems of satellites. They include: (1) use of a normalization or intercalibration satellite, (2) special intensive observation areas located over ground-truth sites, and (3) monitoring of sun and earth by several satellites and/or several instruments at the same time. Since each climate application area has a hierarchy of user communities, validation techniques vary from very detailed methods to those that simply assure high relative accuracy in detecting space and time variations for climate studies. It is shown that climate experiments generally require more emphasis on long-term stability and internal consistency of satellite data sets than high absolute accuracy.
Vonder Haar, T. H.↗
Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.
Computer simulation↗
What the Long-Term Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate
Direct observations of sunspots span the nearly 400 years since the time of Galileo. Dedicated observing programs at several observatories over the last 150 years have provided detailed information not only on the number of sunspots but on their sizes and positions as well. The data acquired by those original observers, and by those who have more recently brought those observations to light, provide important clues about the nature of the solar cycle and its contribution to space climate. The period of the cycle, the equator-ward drift of the active latitudes, the asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fill to minimum, shifting asymmetries between northern and southern hemisphere activity, the tilt of active regions, and the increasing amplitude of the cycles since the Maunder Minimum are all well established. Other, less well established characteristics such as multi-cycle and short-term periodicities, often depend upon the method of data analysis. The strong correlation between sunspot statistics and other measures of solar activity, coupled with the length of the sunspot record, make these observations extremely valuable for characterizing and understanding space climate.
Hathaway, D. H.↗
Weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space and concepts for their realization
The spectrum of weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space is discussed with emphasis on the requirements for wind, temperature, moisture, and pressure data. It is shown that winds are required to realistically depict all atmospheric scales in the tropics and the smaller scales at higher latitudes, where both temperature and wind profiles are necessary. The need for means to estimate air-sea exchanges of sensible and latent heat also is noted. A concept for achieving this through a combination of Lidar cloud top heights and IR cloud top temperatures of cloud streets formed during cold air outbreaks over the warmer ocean is outlined. Recent theoretical feasibility studies concerning the profiling of temperatures, pressure, and humidity by differential absorption Lidar (DIAL) from space and expected accuracies are reviewed. An alternative approach to Doppler Lidar wind measurements also is presented. The concept involves the measurement of the displacement of the aerosol backscatter pattern, at constant heights, between two successive scans of the same area, one ahead of the spacecraft and the other behind it a few minutes later. Finally, an integrated space Lidar system capable of measuring temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds which combines the DIAL methods with the aerosol pattern displacement concept is described.
Atlas, D.↗
Weather and climate needs for lidar observations from space and concepts for their realization
The spectrum of weather and climate needs for lidar observations from space is discussed. This paper focuses mainly on the requirements for winds, temperature, moisture, and pressure. Special emphasis is given to the need for wind observations, and it is shown that winds are required to depict realistically all atmospheric scales in the tropics and the smaller scales at higher latitudes, where both temperature and wind profiles are necessary. The need for means to estimate air-sea exchanges of sensible and latent heat also is noted. Lidar can aid here by measurement of the slope of the boundary layer. Recent theoretical feasibility studies concerning the profiling of temperature, pressure, and humidity by differential absorption lidar (DIAL) from space and expected accuracies are reviewed. Initial ground-based trials provide support for these approaches and also indicate their direct applicability to path-average temperature measurements near the surface. An alternative approach to Doppler lidar wind measurements also is presented. The concept involves the measurement of the displacement of the aerosol backscatter pattern, at constant height, between two successive scans of the same area, one ahead of the spacecraft and the other behind it, a few minutes later. Finally, an integrated space lidar system capable of measuring temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds which combines the DIAL methods with the aerosol pattern displacement concept is described briefly.
Atlas, D.↗
Satellite observations of weather and climate
The SEASAT-A program is viewed as a new way to obtain atmospheric observations for weather and climatic studies in the framework of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP). Total information derived from SEASAT-A sensor package provides a synoptic picture of the upper parts of the world's oceans as a prerequisite to the development of dynamic ocean models and combined ocean/atmospheric models for weather forecasting requirements.
Kellogg, W. W.↗
Long-Term Changes in Stratospheric Age Spectra in the 21st Century in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM)
In this study we investigate the long-term variations in the stratospheric age spectra using simulations of the 21st century with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our purposes are to characterize the long-term changes in the age spectra and identify processes that cause the decrease of the mean age in a warming climate. Changes in the age spectra in the 21st century simulations are characterized by decreases in the modal age, the mean age, the spectral width, and the tail decay timescale. Our analyses show that the decrease in the mean age is caused by two processes: the acceleration of the residual circulation that increases the young air masses in the stratosphere, and the weakening of the recirculation that leads to the decrease of tail of the age spectra and the decrease of the old air masses. The weakening of the stratospheric recirculation is also strongly correlated with the increase of the residual circulation. One important result of this study is that the decrease of the tail of the age spectra makes an important contribution to the decrease of the main age. Long-term changes in the stratospheric isentropic mixing are investigated. Mixing increases in the subtropical lower stratosphere, but its impact on the age spectra is outweighed by the increase of the residual circulation. The impacts of the long-term changes in the age spectra on long-lived chemical traces are also investigated. 37 2
Li, Feng↗
Pre-Launch Calibration and Validation of the Airborne Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (AirHARP) Instrument
The Airborne Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (AirHARP) is a new imaging polarimeter instrument capable of sampling a single Earth target from up to 120 viewing angles, in four spectral channels, and in three linear polarization states across a 114° field of view (FOV). AirHARP is telecentric in the image space and simultaneously images three linear polarization states with no moving parts. These two aspects of the design allow for a simple and efficient quantitative calibration. Using coefficients derived at the center of the lens and the detector flatfields, we can calibrate the entire AirHARP sensor in a variety of laboratory, field, and space environments. We show that this telecentric calibration technique yields a 1σ absolute uncertainty of 0.25 % in degree of linear polarization (DOLP) in the laboratory for all channels and for pixels around the optical axis. To validate across the FOV, we compare our multi-angle reflectance and polarization data with the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) over targets sampled during the NASA Aerosol Characterization from Polarimeter and Lidar (ACEPOL) campaign. We use the error-normalized difference technique to estimate how well the instruments compare relative to their error models. We find that AirHARP and the RSP reasonably agree for reflectance and DOLP within 2 standard deviations of their mutual uncertainty at 550, 670, and 870 nm and over a limited set of ocean and desert scenes. This calibration technique makes the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (HARP) design attractive for new spaceborne climate missions: HARP CubeSat (2020–2022), HARP2 (2024–) on the NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE), and beyond.
Airborne Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter↗
TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): motivations and protocol version 1.0
Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼66 % of the Earth's incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.
Thomas Jean Daniel Fauchez↗
Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds
The uncertainty in the global climate sensitivity to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide is often stated to be 1.5-4.5 K, largely due to uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. The lower end of this range is based on the assumption or prediction in some GCMs that cloud liquid water behaves adiabatically, thus implying that cloud optical thickness will increase in a warming climate if the physical thickness of clouds is invariant. Satellite observations of low-level cloud optical thickness and liquid water path have challenged this assumption, however, at low and middle latitudes. We attempt to explain the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in the Southern Great Plains. We find that low cloud liquid water path is insensitive to temperature in winter but strongly decreases with temperature in summer. The latter occurs because surface relative humidity decreases with warming, causing cloud base to rise and clouds to geometrically thin. Meanwhile, inferred liquid water contents hardly vary with temperature, suggesting entrainment depletion. Physically, the temperature dependence appears to represent a transition from higher probabilities of stratified boundary layers at cold temperatures to a higher incidence of convective boundary layers at warm temperatures. The combination of our results and the earlier satellite findings imply that the minimum climate sensitivity should be revised upward from 1.5 K.
DelGenio, Anthony↗
Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses
This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.
Robertson, Franklin R.↗
Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations
Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.
Graf, HANS-F.↗
Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period
The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.
Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗