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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Structural and stellar-population properties versus bulge types in Sloan Digital Sky Survey central galaxies

ABSTRACT This paper studies pseudo-bulges (P-bulges) and classical bulges (C-bulges) in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) central galaxies using the new bulge indicator ΔΣ1, which measures relative central stellar-mass surface density within 1 kpc. We compare ΔΣ1 to the established bulge-type indicator Δ〈μe〉 from Gadotti (2009) and show that classifying by ΔΣ1 agrees well with Δ〈μe〉. ΔΣ1 requires no bulge–disc decomposition and can be measured on SDSS images out to z = 0.07. Bulge types using it are mapped on to 20 different structural and stellar-population properties for 12 000 SDSS central galaxies with masses 10.0 < log M*/M⊙ < 10.4. New trends emerge from this large sample. Structural parameters show fairly linear log–log relations versus ΔΣ1 and Δ〈μe〉 with only moderate scatter, while stellar-population parameters show a highly non-linear ‘elbow’ in which specific star formation rate remains roughly flat with increasing central density and then falls rapidly at the elbow, where galaxies begin to quench. P-bulges occupy the low-density end of the horizontal arm of the elbow and are universally star forming, while C-bulges occupy the elbow and the vertical branch and exhibit a wide range of star formation rates at a fixed density. The non-linear relation between central density and star formation rate has been seen before, but this mapping on to bulge class is new. The wide range of star formation rates in C-bulges helps to explain why bulge classifications using different parameters have sometimes disagreed in the past. The elbow-shaped relation between density and stellar indices suggests that central structure and stellar populations evolve at different rates as galaxies begin to quench.

Luo, Yifei↗
DOE OSTI2018

Centrality fluctuations in heavy-ion collisions

Volume or centrality fluctuations (CF) are one of the main uncertainties for interpreting the centrality dependence of many experimental observables. The CF is constrained by centrality selection based on particle multiplicity in a reference subevent and contributes to observables measured in another subevent. Using a Glauber-based independent source model, we study the influence of CF on several distributions of multiplicity N and eccentricities ε n : p(N), p(ε n ), p(ε n ,ε m ), and p(N,ε n ), where the effects of CF are quantified using multiparticle cumulants of these distributions. In midcentral collisions, a general relation is established between the multiplicity fluctuation and resulting CF in the reference subevent. In ultracentral collisions, where distribution of particle production sources is strongly distorted, we find these cumulants exhibit rich sign-change patterns, due to observable-dependent non-Gaussianity in the underlying distributions. The details of sign-change pattern change with the size of the collision systems. Simultaneous comparison of these different types of cumulants between model prediction and experimental data can be used to constrain the CF and particle production mechanism in heavy-ion collisions. Since the concepts of centrality and CF are expected to fluctuate in the longitudinal direction within a single event, we propose to use the pseudorapidity-separated subevent cumulant method to explore the nature of intraevent fluctuations of centrality and collective dynamics. The subevent method can be applied for any bulk observable that is sensitive to centrality and has the potential to separate different mechanisms for multiplicity and flow fluctuations happening at different timescales. As a result, the forward detector upgrades at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider will greatly enhance such studies in the future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Transmission Reinforcements in the Central American Regional Power System

The Central American regional interconnected power system (SER) connects the countries members of the Central American regional electricity market (MER): Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. The SER was a result of a long term regional effort, and was initially conceived to transfer 300 MW between countries. However, the current transfer limits between countries range from 70 MW to 300 MW. Regional entities, like CRIE (Regional Commission of Electrical Interconnection), EOR (Central American Regional System Operator), and CDMER (Board of Directors of the Central American Market) are working on coordinating the national transmission expansion plans with regional transmission planning efforts. This paper presents experience in Central America region to recommend transmission reinforcements to achieve 300 MW transfer capacity between any pair of member countries of the Central American regional electricity market (MER). This paper also provides a methodology for technical analysis and for coordination among the regional and national entities. This methodology is unique for transmission systems of these characteristics.

power system interconnection↗
DOE OSTI2016

Centrality dependence of charged jet production in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Measurements of charged jet production as a function of centrality are presented for p–Pb collisions recorded at $\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}}$= 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector. Centrality classes are determined via the energy deposit in neutron calorimeters at zero degree, close to the beam direction, to minimise dynamical biases of the selection. The corresponding number of participants or binary nucleon–nucleon collisions is determined based on the particle production in the Pb-going rapidity region. Jets have been reconstructed in the central rapidity region from charged particles with the anti-k T algorithm for resolution parameters R = 0.2 and R = 0.4 in the transverse momentum range 20 to 120 GeV/c. The reconstructed jet momentum and yields have been corrected for detector effects and underlying-event background. In the five centrality bins considered, the charged jet production in p–Pb collisions is consistent with the production expected from binary scaling from pp collisions. The ratio of jet yields reconstructed with the two different resolution parameters is also independent of the centrality selection, demonstrating the absence of major modifications of the radial jet structure in the reported centrality classes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tracking moisture sources of precipitation over Central Asia: A study based on the water-source-tagging method

Central Asia is a semi-arid to arid region that is sensitive to hydrological changes. We use the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), equipped with a water tagging capability, to investigate the major moisture sources for climatological precipitation and its long-term trends over Central Asia. Europe, the north Atlantic and local evaporation, which explain 33.2±1.5%, 23.0±2.5% and 19.4±2.2% of the precipitation, respectively, are identified as the most dominant moisture sources for northern Central Asia (NCA). For precipitation over southern Central Asia (SCA), Europe, the north Atlantic and local evaporation contributes 25.4±2.7%, 18.0±1.7% and 14.7±1.9%, respectively. In addition, the contributions of South Asia (8.6±1.7%) and Indian Ocean (9.5±2.0%) are also substantial for SCA. Modulated by the seasonal meridional shift of subtropical westerly jet, moisture originating from low- and mid-latitude is important in winter, spring and autumn, while northern Europe contributes more in summer. We also explain the observed drying trends over southeastern Central Asia in spring and over NCA in summer during 1956-2005. The drying trend over the southeastern Central Asia in spring is mainly due to the decrease of local evaporation and weakened moisture fluxes from the Arabian Peninsula and Arabian Sea associated with the warming Western Pacific. The drying trend over NCA in summer can be attributed to the decrease of local evaporation and reduced moisture from northern Europe due to the southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet.

Jiang, Jie↗
DOE OSTI2017

A STUDY OF CENTRAL GALAXY ROTATION WITH STELLAR MASS AND ENVIRONMENT

We present a pilot analysis of the influence of galaxy stellar mass and cluster environment on the probability of slow rotation in 22 central galaxies at mean redshift z = 0.07. This includes new integral-field observations of five central galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, observed with the SPIRAL integral-field spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. The composite sample presented here spans a wide range of stellar masses, 10.9 < log(M{sub ∗}/M{sub ⊙})<12.0, and are embedded in halos ranging from groups to clusters, 12.9 < log(M{sub 200}/M{sub ⊙})<15.6. We find a mean probability of slow rotation in our sample of P(SR) = 54±7%. Our results show an increasing probability of slow rotation in central galaxies with increasing stellar mass. However, when we examine the dependence of slow rotation on host cluster halo mass, we do not see a significant relationship. We also explore the influence of cluster dominance on slow rotation in central galaxies. Clusters with low dominance are associated with dynamically younger systems. We find that cluster dominance has no significant effect on the probability of slow rotation in central galaxies. These results conflict with a paradigm in which halo mass alone predetermines central galaxy properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Detailed Study of the Most Relaxed SPT-selected Galaxy Clusters: Properties of the Cool Core and Central Galaxy

We present a multi-wavelength analysis of the four most relaxed clusters in the South Pole Telescope 2500 deg 2 survey, which lie at 0.55 < z < 0.75. This study, which utilizes new, deep data from Chandra and Hubble, along with ground-based spectroscopy from Gemini and Magellan, improves significantly on previous studies in both depth and angular resolution, allowing us to directly compare to clusters at z~0. We find that the temperature, density, and entropy profiles of the intracluster medium (ICM) are very similar among the four clusters, and share similar shapes to clusters at z~0. Specifically, we find no evidence for deviations from self similarity in the temperature profile over the radial range 10kpc < r < 1Mpc, implying that the processes responsible for preventing runaway cooling over the past >6 Gyr are, at least roughly, preserving self similarity. We find typical metallicities of ~0.3 Zsun in the bulk of the ICM, rising to ~0.5 Zsun in the inner ~100 kpc, and reaching ~1 Zsun at r < 10kpc. This central excess is similar in magnitude to what is observed in the most relaxed clusters at z~0, suggesting that both the global metallicity and the central excess that we see in cool core clusters at z~0 were in place very early in the cluster lifetime and, specifically, that the central excess is not due to late-time enrichment by the central galaxy. Consistent with observations at z~0, we measure a diversity of stellar populations in the central brightest cluster galaxies of these four clusters, with star formation rates spanning a factor of ~500, despite the similarity in cooling time, cooling rate, and central entropy. These data suggest that, while the details vary dramatically from system to system, runaway cooling has been broadly regulated in relaxed clusters over the past 6 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaNGA: How the Stellar Populations of Passive Central Galaxies Depend on Stellar and Halo Mass

We analyze spatially resolved and co-added SDSS-IV MaNGA spectra with signal-to-noise ratio ~100 from 2200 passive central galaxies (z ~ 0.05) to understand how central galaxy assembly depends on stellar mass (M*) and halo mass (M h ). We control for systematic errors in M h by employing a new group catalog from Tinker and the widely used Yang et al. catalog. At fixed M*, the strengths of several stellar absorption features vary systematically with M h . Completely model-free, this is one of the first indications that the stellar populations of centrals with identical M* are affected by the properties of their host halos. To interpret these variations, we applied full spectral fitting with the code alf. At fixed M*, centrals in more massive halos are older, show lower [Fe/H], and have higher [Mg/Fe] with 3.5σ confidence. We conclude that halos not only dictate how much M* galaxies assemble but also modulate their chemical enrichment histories. Turning to our analysis at fixed M h , high-M* centrals are older, show lower [Fe/H], and have higher [Mg/Fe] for M h > 10 12 h –1 M⊙ with confidence >4σ. While massive passive galaxies are thought to form early and rapidly, our results are among the first to distinguish these trends at fixed M h . They suggest that high-M* centrals experienced unique early formation histories, either through enhanced collapse and gas fueling or because their halos were early forming and highly concentrated, a possible signal of galaxy assembly bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A full year of aerosol size distribution data from the central Arctic under an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation: insights from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition

Abstract. The Arctic environment is rapidly changing due to accelerated warming in the region. The warming trend is driving a decline in sea ice extent, which thereby enhances feedback loops in the surface energy budget in the Arctic. Arctic aerosols play an important role in the radiative balance and hence the climate response in the region, yet direct observations of aerosols over the Arctic Ocean are limited. In this study, we investigate the annual cycle in the aerosol particle number size distribution (PNSD), particle number concentration (PNC), and black carbon (BC) mass concentration in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. This is the first continuous, year-long data set of aerosol PNSD ever collected over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean. We use a k-means cluster analysis, FLEXPART simulations, and inverse modeling to evaluate seasonal patterns and the influence of different source regions on the Arctic aerosol population. Furthermore, we compare the aerosol observations to land-based sites across the Arctic, using both long-term measurements and observations during the year of the MOSAiC expedition (2019–2020), to investigate interannual variability and to give context to the aerosol characteristics from within the central Arctic. Our analysis identifies that, overall, the central Arctic exhibits typical seasonal patterns of aerosols, including anthropogenic influence from Arctic haze in winter and secondary aerosol processes in summer. The seasonal pattern corresponds to the global radiation, surface air temperature, and timing of sea ice melting/freezing, which drive changes in transport patterns and secondary aerosol processes. In winter, the Norilsk region in Russia/Siberia was the dominant source of Arctic haze signals in the PNSD and BC observations, which contributed to higher accumulation-mode PNC and BC mass concentrations in the central Arctic than at land-based observatories. We also show that the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) phenomenon, which was reported to achieve a record-breaking positive phase during January–March 2020, explains the unusual timing and magnitude of Arctic haze across the Arctic region compared to longer-term observations. In summer, the aerosol PNCs of the nucleation and Aitken modes are enhanced; however, concentrations were notably lower in the central Arctic over the ice pack than at land-based sites further south. The analysis presented herein provides a current snapshot of Arctic aerosol processes in an environment that is characterized by rapid changes, which will be crucial for improving climate model predictions, understanding linkages between different environmental processes, and investigating the impacts of climate change in future Arctic aerosol studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Globular cluster winds with central accretion by a massive compact object or subcluster

Steady-state isothermal wind flows are computed with accretion by a central mass concentration in spherically symmetric systems of gas-losing stars. Solutions are uniquely determined by two dimensionless parameters lambda and m, where lambda is approximately equal to the square of the ratio of the central escape velocity to the sound speed and m is approximately equal to the ratio of the central point mass to the cluster core mass. The models are applied to globular clusters for two types of central mass concentration - a single massive black hole and a subcluster of massive stars. A hard (greater than a keV) X-ray source due to a central black hole fed by clusterwide inflow does not provide a consistent model for globular cluster X-ray sources. However, in the case of hot (T being greater than or approximately equal to 2 x 10 to the 5th K) winds, gas trapping by a central subcluster of neutron stars or of binaries containing white dwarfs could explain recent UV and H-alpha observations. Similar applications to elliptical galaxies are discussed.

Durisen, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Utility and technology for a space central power station

The technological and economical impacts of a large central power station in Earth orbit on the performance and cost of future spacecraft and their orbital-transfer systems are examined. It is shown that beaming power to remote users cannot be cost-effective if the central power station uses the same power generation system that would be readily available for provision of on-board power. Laser transmitters/receivers to make central power stations feasible are considered. The cost-effectiveness of meeting Earth-orbiting spacecraft electrical demands from a central power station was analyzed, indicating that this application cannot justify the investment required for the central station. Key technology needs which must be met to enable a viable central power station in the future are identified.

Holloway, P. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The Central Nervous Connections Involved in the Vomiting Reflex

The vomiting reflex may be elicited by a number of different types or classes of stimuli involving many varieties of receptor structures and considerable diversity in afferent pathways and central connections. Central relay or mediating structures thus may vary widely according to the type of initial emetic stimulus. The emetic circuits which have been most completely delineated to date are probably those in which the Chemoreceptor Trigger Zone (CTZ) in the Area Postrema (AP) functions as a key mediating structure. Even in this system, however, there are large gaps in our knowledge of the nerve tracts and central nervous connections involved. Knowledge of most other emetic circuits subserving the emetic reflex resulting from many diverse types of stimuli such, for example, as emotional stress (e.g. psychogenic vomiting, Wruble et al. 1982), pain (e.g. testicular trauma), and chemical or mechanical irritation of the gastrointestinal tract or urinary tract is quite incomplete at this time, thus precluding any very adequate description of their central connections at present. One physiological system, however, which has received considerable attention recently in relation to the vomiting reflex elicited by motion stimuli is the vestibular system. Due to the paucity of data on central nervous connections of several or the non-vestibular types of emetic stimuli cited above, we will devote most of our attention in this brief review to the central connections of the vestibular system which seem likely to be involved in the vomiting response to motion stimuli. However, the latter part of the review will be concerned with the concept of the reticular vomiting centre in relation to the ParviCellular Reticular Formation (PCRF), and will thus probably pertain to all of the many classes of emetic stimuli since it will address the question of the final common emetic pathway.

Brizzee, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Theoretical and Observational Studies of the Central Engines of AGN

In Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) the luminosity is so intense that the effect of radiation pressure on a particle may exceed the gravitational attraction. It was shown that when such luminosities are reached, relatively cold (not completely ionized) thermal matter clouds may form in the central engines of AGN, where most of the luminosity originates. We show that the spectrum of emission from cold clouds embedded in hot relativistic matter is similar to the observed spectrum. We also show that within the hot relativistic matter, cold matter moves faster than the speed of sound or the Alfven speed, and shocks form. The shocks provide a mechanism by which a localized perturbation can propagate throughout the central engine. The shocked matter can emit the observed luminosity, and can explain the flux and spectral variability. It may also provide an efficient mechanism for the outward transfer of angular momentum and provide the outward flow of winds. With observations from X-ray satellites, emission features from the cold and hot matter may be revealed. Our analysis of X-ray data from the Seyfert 1 galaxy MCG - 6-30-15 over five years using detectors on the Ginga and Rosat satellites, revealed some interesting variable features. A source with hot matter emits non-thermal radiation which is Compton reflected from cold matter and then absorbed by warm (partially ionized) absorbing matter in the first model, which can be fit to the data if both the cold and warm absorbers are near the central engine. An alternative model in which the emission from the hot matter is partially covered by very warm matter (in which all elements except Iron are mostly ionized) is also successful. In this model the cold and warm matter may be at distances of up to 100 times the size of the central engine, well within the region where broad optical lines are produced. The flux variability is more naturally explained by the second model. Our results support the existence of cold matter in, or near, the central engine of MCG -6-30-15. Cold matter in the central engine, and evidence of the effects of shocks, is probably forthcoming with future X-ray satellites.

Sivron, Ran↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between – 0.93 and 1.27 °C and – 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 emissions from central heating supply in the North China Plain over 2012–2016 due to natural gas usage

Energy consumption from central heating has rapidly increased in the cities of the North China Plain (NCP). The significant use of natural gas in the central heating supply system may have altered the spatial and temporal patterns of CO 2 emissions from central heating, yet the quantitative impacts are poorly understood. In this work, we detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of CO 2 emissions of central heating from 2012 to 2016 at the prefectural-city level in the NCP region, by using the satellite NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data and a panel regression model to estimate CO 2 emissions on a 5 x 5 km 2 grid. We find that despite a slight decrease (2%) in 2014 under the "Natural Gas Utilization Policy", CO 2 emissions continued to grow. Between 2012 and 2016, CO 2 emissions from central heating in the NCP increased from 106 to 121 Tg, although CO 2 emissions declined by 12% in Beijing due to the increasing contribution of natural gas boilers. The gridded CO 2 emissions map shows that over 2012-2016 coal burning is the main driving force of CO 2 emissions in both urban and non-urban regions, despite the increasing fraction of gas-based heating. Our results contribute to city-level policymaking on carbon reduction and climate change mitigation. The high-resolution gridded CO 2 emissions can also be applied in physical models to facilitate carbon cycle studies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Centrality definition in e + A collisions at the electron–ion collider

Here, in this work, we investigate the feasibility of defining centrality in electron–ion collisions at the electron–ion collider (EIC) by examining the correlation between the impact parameter and several observables, including total energy, total transverse momentum, and total number of particles. Using the BeAGLE Monte Carlo generator, we simulate e + Au and e + Ru collisions at different energies and analyze the correlation between the impact parameter and these observables across different kinematic regions. Our findings indicate that the correlation is weak in the central rapidity region but becomes stronger in the forward and far-forward rapidity regions. However, the correlation is not sufficiently robust to allow for precise centrality determination. We conclude that defining centrality in electron–ion collisions is more challenging than in ion–ion collisions, necessitating further studies to develop a robust centrality definition for the EIC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Central and peripheral components of short latency vestibular responses in the chicken

Far-field recordings of short latency vestibular responses to pulsed cranial translation are composed of a series of positive and negative peaks occurring within 10 ms following stimulus onset. In the bird, these vestibular evoked potentials (VsEPs) can be recorded noninvasively and have been shown in the chicken and quail to depend strictly upon the activation of the vestibular component of the eighth nerve. The utility of the VsEP in the study of vestibular systems is dependent upon a clear understanding of the neural sources of response components. The primary aim of the current research in the chicken was to critically test the hypotheses that 1) responses are generated by both peripheral and central neurons and 2) peaks P1 and N1 originate from first order vestibular neurons, whereas later waves primarily depend on activity in higher order neurons. The principal strategy used here was to surgically isolate the eighth nerve as it enters the brainstem. Interruption of primary afferents of the eighth nerve in the brainstem substantially reduced or eliminated peaks beyond P2, whereas P1 and N1 were generally spared. Surgical sections that spared vestibular pathways had little effect on responses. The degree of change in response components beyond N1 was correlated with the extent of damage to central vestibular relays. These findings support the conclusion that responses are produced by both peripheral and central elements of the vestibular system. Further, response peaks later than N1 appear to be dependent upon central relays, whereas P1 and N1 reflect activity of the peripheral nerve. These findings clarify the roles of peripheral and central neurons in the generation of vestibular evoked potentials and provide the basis for a more useful and detailed interpretation of data from vestibular response testing.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2022

Projected Changes in Early Summer Ridging and Drought Over the Central Plains

Early summer (May–June–July; MJJ) droughts over the Central Plains are often caused by atmospheric ridging, but it is uncertain if these events will increase in frequency or if their influence on drought severity will change in a warming world. Here, we use tree-ring based reconstructions (1500–2020 CE) of MJJ ridging and 0–200 cm soil moisture with six CMIP6 model ensembles to investigate the response of Central Plains drought dynamics to a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5). By the end of the 21st century (2071–2100), precipitation increases in most models during the preceding months (February–March–April), especially over the northern part of the Central Plains, while changes during MJJ are non-robust. By contrast, vapor pressure deficit increases strongly in all models, resulting in five of the six models projecting robust median soil moisture drying and all six models projecting more rapid seasonal soil moisture declines during the transition into the summer. Major ridging events increase in frequency in some models, and there is strong agreement across all models that when ridging events do occur, they will cause more severe soil moisture drought and seasonal drying at the end of the 21st century. The median multi-model response also indicates, by the end of the 21st century, that the Central Plains will experience a three-fold increase in the risk of drought events equivalent to the most extreme droughts of the last 500 years. Our results demonstrate that even moderate warming is likely to increase early summer soil moisture drought severity and risk over the Central Plains, even in the absence of robust precipitation declines, and that drought responses to major atmospheric ridging events will be significantly stronger.

Drought↗