Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “bias correction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Global ocean tides through assimilation of oceanographic and altimeter satellite data in a hydrodynamic model

Ocean tides must be considered in many scientific disciplines: astronomy, oceanography, geodesy, geophysics, meteorology, and space technologies. Progress in each of these disciplines leads to the need for greater knowledge and more precise predictions of the ocean tide contribution. This is particularly true of satellite altimetry. On one side, the present and future satellite altimetry missions provide and will supply new data that will contribute to the improvement of the present ocean tide solutions. On the other side, tidal corrections included in the Geophysical Data Records must be determined with the maximum possible accuracy. The valuable results obtained with satellite altimeter data thus far have not been penalized by the insufficiencies of the present ocean tide predictions included in the geophysical data records (GDR's) because the oceanic processes investigated have shorter wavelengths than the error field of the tidal predictions, so that the residual errors of the tidal corrections are absorbed in the empirical tilt and bias corrections of the satellite orbit. For future applications to large-scale oceanic phenomena, however, it will no longer be possible to ignore these insufficiencies.

Leprovost, Christian↗
DOE OSTI2026

DESI DR1 Ly α 1D power spectrum: Validation of estimators

The Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is the largest sample to date for small-scale Lyα forest cosmology, accessed through its one-dimensional power spectrum (P 1D ). The Lyα forest P 1D is extracted from quasar spectra that are highly inhomogeneous (both in wavelength and between quasars) in noise properties due to intrinsic properties of the quasar, atmospheric and astrophysical contamination, and also sensitive to low-level details of the spectral extraction pipeline. We employ two estimators in DR1 analysis to measure P 1D : the optimal estimator and the fast Fourier transform (FFT) estimator. To ensure robustness of our DR1 measurements, we validate these two power spectrum and covariance matrix estimation methodologies against the challenging aspects of the data. First, using a set of 20 synthetic 1D realizations of DR1, we derive the masking bias corrections needed for the FFT estimator and the continuum fitting bias needed for both estimators. We demonstrate that both estimators, including their covariances, are unbiased with these corrections using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Second, we substantially extend our previous suite of CCD image simulations to include 675,000 quasars, allowing us to accurately quantify the pipeline's performance. This set of simulations reveals biases at the highest k values, corresponding to a resolution error of a few percent. We base the resolution systematics error budget of DR1 P 1D on these values, but do not derive corrections from them since the simulation fidelity is insufficient for precise corrections.

Lyman alpha forest↗
NASA NTRS2001

Results from Global Land-Surface Data Assimilation Methods

Realistic representation of the land surface is crucial in global climate modeling (GCM). Recently, the Mosaic land-surface Model (LSM) has been driven off-line using GEOS DAS (Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System) atmospheric forcing, forming the Off-line Land-surface Global Assimilation (OLGA) system. This system provides a computationally efficient test bed for land surface data assimilation. Here, we validate the OLGA simulation of surface processes and the assimilation of ISCCP surface temperatures. Another component of this study as the incorporation of the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) into OLGA, in order to assimilate surface temperature observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). To counteract the subsequent forcing of the analyzed skin temperature back to the initial state following the analysis. incremental bias correction (IBC) was included in the assimilation. The IBC scheme effectively removed the time mean bias, but did not remove him in the mean diurnal cycle. Therefore, a diurnal him correction (DBC) scheme was developed, where the time-dependent bias was modeled with a sine wave parameterization. In addition, quality control of the ISCCP data and anisotropic temperature correction were implemented in PSAS. Preliminary results showed a substantial impact from the inclusion of PSAS and DBC that was visible in the surface meteorology fields and energy budget. Also, the monthly mean diurnal cycle from the experiment closely matched the diurnal cycle from the observations.

Radakovich, Jon D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Dual-Regression to Produce 16-Day Average AIRS Soundings

Temperature and humidity profiles are needed to estimate surface radiation budget. The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) team uses temperature and humidity profiles from a reanalysis product produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office for surface irradiance computations. Biases and drifts in temperature and humidity profiles in the reanalysis product result in biases and drifts in surface irradiances computed with them. One approach to correct biases and drifts in temperature and humidity profile is to use satellite observations, similar to assimilating instantaneous spectral radiances to correct modeled temperature and humidity profiles. In this work, we use mean spectral radiances to test the possibility of understanding biases in reanalysis mean temperature and humidity profiles. Specifically, we use 16-day mean Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances and only use clear-sky spectral radiances with a viewing zenith angle nadir to near-nadir. We use the dual-regression method (Smith et al. 2012) to test whether temperature and humidity profiles retrieved from the 16-day mean spectral radiances agree with the average of temperature and humidity profiles derived from instantaneous spectral radiances. When daytime and nighttime spectral radiances are averaged separately and daytime and nighttime retrievals are performed separately, temperature and humidity profiles derived from the mean spectral radiances agree well with mean temperature and humidity profiles derived from instantaneous spectral radiances. The agreement improves when clouds are further screened to compute 16-day mean clear-sky spectral radiances.

Anthony DiNorscia↗
NASA NTRS2000

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Calibration and Validation Analyses

The effort to resolve data quality issues and improve on the initial data evaluation methodologies of the SeaWiFS Project was an extensive one. These evaluations have resulted, to date, in three major reprocessings of the entire data set where each reprocessing addressed the data quality issues that could be identified up to the time of the reprocessing. Three volumes of the SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series (Volumes 9, 10, and 11) are needed to document the improvements implemented since launch. Volume 10 continues the sequential presentation of postlaunch data analysis and algorithm descriptions begun in Volume 9. Chapter 1 of Volume 10 describes an absorbing aerosol index, similar to that produced by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Project, which is used to flag pixels contaminated by absorbing aerosols, such as, dust and smoke. Chapter 2 discusses the algorithm being used to remove SeaWiFS out-of-band radiance from the water-leaving radiances. Chapter 3 provides an itemization of all significant changes in the processing algorithms for each of the first three reprocessings. Chapter 4 shows the time series of global clear water and deep-water (depths greater than 1,000m) bio-optical and atmospheric properties (normalized water-leaving radiances, chlorophyll, atmospheric optical depth, etc.) based on the eight-day composites as a check on the sensor calibration stability. Chapter 5 examines the variation in the derived products with scan angle using high resolution data around Hawaii to test for residual scan modulation effects and atmospheric correction biases. Chapter 6 provides a methodology for evaluating the atmospheric correction algorithm and atmospheric derived products using ground-based observations. Similarly, Chapter 7 presents match-up comparisons of coincident satellite and in situ data to determine the accuracy of the water-leaving radiances, chlorophyll a, and K(490) products.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of single-footprint AIRS CH4 Profile Retrieval Uncertainties Using Aircraft Profile Measurements

We evaluate the uncertainties of methane optimal estimation retrievals from single footprint thermal infrared observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). These retrievals are primarily sensitive to atmospheric methane in the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (~2 to ~17 km). We compare to in situ observations made from aircraft during the Hiaper Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO), the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns, and from the NOAA ESRL aircraft network, between the surface and 5-13 km, across a range of years, latitudes between 60 S to 80 N, and over land and ocean. After a global, pressure dependent bias correction, we find that the land and ocean have similar biases and that the reported observation error (combined measurement and interference errors) of ~27 ppb is consistent with the standard deviation between aircraft and individual AIRS observations. A single measurement has measurement (noise related) uncertainty of ~17 ppb, a ~20 ppb uncertainty from radiative interferences (e.g. from water, temperature, etc.), and ~ 30 ppb due to “smoothing error”, which is partially removed when making comparisons to in situ measurements or models in a way that account for this regularization. We estimate a 16 ppb validation error because the aircraft typically did not measure methane at altitudes where the AIRS measurements have some sensitivity, e.g. the stratosphere. Daily averaged AIRS measurements of at least 9 observations over spatio-temporal domains of < 1 degree and 1 hour have a standard deviation of ~17 ppb versus aircraft, likely because the observation errors from temperature and water vapor (for example) are only partly reduced through averaging. Seasonal averages can reduce this ~17 ppb uncertainty further to ~10 ppb, as determined through comparison with NOAA aircraft, likely because uncertainties related to radiative effects of temperature and water vapor can be reduced when averaged over a season.

Susan Kulawik↗
NASA NTRS2008

Orbital Express AVGS Validation and Calibration for Automated Rendezvous

From March to July of 2007, the DARPA Orbital Express mission achieved a number of firsts in autonomous spacecraft operations. The NASA Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (AVGS) was the primary docking sensor during the first two dockings and was used in a blended mode three other automated captures. The AVGS performance exceeded its specification by approximately an order of magnitude. One reason that the AVGS functioned so well during the mission was that the validation and calibration of the sensor prior to the mission advanced the state-of-the-art for proximity sensors. Some factors in this success were improvements in ground test equipment and truth data, the capability for ILOAD corrections for optical and other effects, and the development of a bias correction procedure. Several valuable lessons learned have applications to future proximity sensors.

Heaton, Andrew F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Trojan, Hilda, and Cybele asteroids - New lightcurve observations and analysis

Lightcurve observations of 23 Trojan, Hilda, and Cybele asteroids are presently subjected to a correction procedure for multiple-aspect lightcurves, followed by a quantitative, bias-corrected analysis of lightcurve amplitude distributions for all published data on these asteroids. While the largest Trojans are found to have a higher mean-lightcurve amplitude than their low-albedo, main-belt counterparts, the smaller Trojans and all Hildas and Cybeles display lightcurve properties resembling main-belt objects. Only the largest Trojans have retained their initial forms after subsequent collisional evolution; 90 km may accordingly represent a transitional magnitude between primordial objects and collision fragments.

Binzel, Richard P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

AutoBEM for BlocPower

As part of a cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA), the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and BlocPower partnered to rectify disparities between simulated and actual energy consumption in buildings using various correction methods. This team extended ORNL’s building energy modeling capabilities and used bias-correction techniques to reduce the difference between simulated energy consumption estimations and ground-truth consumption data of buildings provided by utilities. ORNL is one of three core DOE laboratories developing the energy modeling tools EnergyPlus and OpenStudio.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2022

Irrigation Characterization Improved by the Direct Use of SMAP Soil Moisture Anomalies Within a Data Assimilation System

Prior soil moisture data assimilation (DA) efforts to incorporate human management features such as agricultural irrigation has only shown limited success. This is partly due to the fact that observational rescaling approaches for bias correction used in soil moisture DA systems are less effective when unmodeled processes such as irrigation are the dominant source of systematic biases. In this article, we demonstrate an alternative approach, i.e. anomaly correction for overcoming this limitation. Unlike the rescaling approaches, the proposed method does not scale remote sensing soil moisture retrievals to the model climatology, but it extracts the temporal variability information from the retrievals. The study demonstrates this approach through the assimilation of soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission into the Noah land surface model. The results demonstrate that DA using the anomaly correction method can better capture the effect of irrigation on soil moisture in agricultural areas while providing comparable performance to the DA integrations using rescaling approaches in non-irrigated areas. These findings emphasize the need to reduce inconsistencies between remote sensing and the models so that assimilation methods can employ information from remote sensing more directly to develop representations of unmodeled processes such as irrigation.

soil moisture↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of CMIP6 Streamflow in the Arctic

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as the primary basis for projecting future streamflow changes, but they are biased in terms of the their ability to reproduce historical observations of streamflow. Rigorous downscaling and bias-correction procedures, which are time-consuming and introduce uncertainties, are commonly used to address these biases in streamflow or runoff. However, the applicable limits of streamflow projections remain largely untested through direct comparisons with observations. In this work, we compare historical streamflow time series observations with a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to assess the space and time scales at which each ESM represents historic streamflow observations. We focus our analysis on streamflow across the Arctic given the higher degree of warming experienced over this region, underscoring its importance for understanding the future changes. A series of metrics—volume, seasonality, extreme capturing streamflow variability, drought, and flooding is tested to assess ESM simulation skill for total events and overall distributions. Our results indicate that although improvements are necessary in ESM runoff and streamflow projections, the use of temporal averaging and targeting the best-fit model for comparison to observations when a suite of ESMs is considered can provide robust streamflow projections. Moreover, this work provides a basis for contextualizing the limits of ESM applicability for studies aiming to assess streamflow in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Historical MOBLAS system characterization

This paper is written as a direct response to the published NASA Laser Geodynamic Satellite (LAGEOS) orbital solution SL7.1, in order to close the data information loop with an emphasis on the NASA Mobile Laser Ranging System's (MOBLAS) LAGEOS full rate data since November 1, 1983. A preliminary analysis of the supporting information (i.e. satellite laser ranging system eccentricities and system dependent range and time bias corrections) contained in SL7.1 indicated centimeter (cm) level discrepancies. In addition, a preliminary analysis of the computed monthly MOBLAS range biases from SL7.1 appear to show cm level systematic trends, some of which appear to be 'real', particularly in the 1984 to 1987 time period. This paper is intended to be a reference document for known MOBLAS systematic errors (magnitude and direction) and for supporting MOBLAS information (eccentricities, hardware configurations, and potential data problem periods). Therefore, this report is different than your typical system characterization report, but will be more valuable to the user. The MOBLAS error models and supporting information contained in this paper will be easily accessible from the Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS).

Husson, Van S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. Here, in this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Niño (La Niña) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical central-western Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Using Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion to Map Global Surface Ozone Concentration and Associated Uncertainty

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations have been improved through data fusion of observations and atmospheric chemistry models. Our previous global ozone estimates for the Global Burden of Disease study corrected for bias uniformly across continents and then corrected near monitoring stations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework for data fusion. Here, we use the Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) framework to correct model bias over a much larger spatial range than BME can, accounting for the spatial inhomogeneity of bias and nonlinearity as a function of modeled ozone. RAMP bias correction is applied to a composite of 9 global chemistry-climate models, based on the nearest set of monitors. These estimates are then fused with observations using BME, which matches observations at measurement stations, with the influence of observations declining with distance in space and time. We create global ozone maps for each year from 1990 to 2017 at fine spatial resolution. RAMP is shown to create unrealistic discontinuities due to the spatial clustering of ozone monitors, which we overcome by applying a weighting for RAMP based on the number of monitors nearby. Incorporating RAMP before BME has little effect on model performance near stations, but strongly increases R 2 by 0.15 at locations farther from stations, shown through a checkerboard cross-validation. Corrections to estimates differ based on location in space and time, confirming heterogeneity. We quantify the likelihood of exceeding selected ozone levels, finding that parts of the Middle East, India, and China are most likely to exceed 55 parts per billion (ppb) in 2017. About 96% of the global population was exposed to ozone levels above the World Health Organization guideline of 60 µg m −3 (30 ppb) in 2017. Our annual fine-resolution ozone estimates may be useful for several applications including epidemiology and assessments of impacts on health, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Ozone↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: cosmological biases from supernova photometric classification

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of samples of photometrically identified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on understanding the effects of ‘contamination’ from core-collapse and peculiar SN Ia events. We employ a rigorous analysis using the photometric classifier SuperNNova on state-of-the-art simulations of SN samples to determine cosmological biases due to such ‘non-Ia’ contamination in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr SN sample. Depending on the non-Ia SN models used in the SuperNNova training and testing samples, contamination ranges from 0.8 to 3.5 per cent, with a classification efficiency of 97.7–99.5 per cent. Using the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework and its extension BBC (‘BEAMS with Bias Correction’), we produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram marginalized over contamination and corrected for selection effects, and use it to constrain the dark energy equation-of-state, w. Assuming a flat universe with Gaussian ΩM prior of 0.311 ± 0.010, we show that biases on w are <0.008 when using SuperNNova, with systematic uncertainties associated with contamination around 10 per cent of the statistical uncertainty on w for the DES-SN sample. An alternative approach of discarding contaminants using outlier rejection techniques (e.g. Chauvenet’s criterion) in place of SuperNNova leads to biases on w that are larger but still modest (0.015–0.03). Finally, we measure biases due to contamination on w0 and wa (assuming a flat universe), and find these to be <0.009 in w0 and <0.108 in wa, 5 to 10 times smaller than the statistical uncertainties for the DES-SN sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗