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At least 145 records · Page 8

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast—Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosol, gas, and wet deposition. Seasonal changes in the circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration along the coast in winter, and minima in summer, suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. The performance of four climate models are assessed against satellite cloud retrievals. The models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Actual Evapotranspiration for the Narmada River Basin in Central India in the Future

Assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is essential as it controls the exchange of water and heat energy between the atmosphere and land surface. ET also influences the available water resources and assists in the crop water assessment in agricultural areas. This study involves the assessment of spatial distribution of seasonal and annual ET using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and provides an estimation of future changes in ET due to land use and climate change for a portion of the Narmada river basin in Central India. Climate change effects on future ET are assessed using the ACCESS1-0 model of CMIP5. A Markov Chain model estimated future land use based on the probability of changes in the past. The ET analysis is carried out for the years 2009-2011. The results indicate variation in the seasonal ET with the changed land use. High ET is observed over forest areas and crop lands, but ET decreases over crop lands after harvest. The overall annual ET is high over water bodies and forest areas. ET is high in the premonsoon season over the water bodies and decreases in the winter. Future ET in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s is shown with respect to land use and climate changes that project a gradual decrease due to the constant removal of the forest areas. The lowest ET is projected in 2050. Individual impact of land use change projects decreases in ET from 1990 to 2050, while climate change effect projects increases in ET in the future due to rises in temperature. However, the combined impacts of land use and climate changes indicate a decrease in ET in the future.

Kundu, Sananda↗

The Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation Team and Product Characterization Approach

The Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation (JACIE) team is a collaborative interagency group focused on the characterization of commercial remote sensing data products. The team members - the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) - each have a vested interest in the purchase and use of commercial imagery to support government research and operational applications. For both research and applications, commercial products must be well characterized for precision, accuracy, and repeatability. Since commercial systems are built and operated with no government insight or oversight, the JACIE team provides an independent product characterization of delivered image and image-derived end products. End product characterization differs from the systems calibration approach that is typically used with government systems, where detailed system design information is available. The product characterization approach addresses three primary areas of product performance: geopositional accuracy, image quality, and radiometric accuracy. The JACIE team utilizes well-characterized test sites to support characterization activities. To characterize geopositional accuracy, the team utilizes sites containing several "photo-identifiable" targets and compares their precisely known locations with those defined by the commercial image product. In the area of image quality, spatial response is characterized using edge targets and pulse targets to measure edge response and to estimate image modulation transfer function. Additionally, imagery is also characterized using the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale, a means of quantifying the ability to identify certain targets (e.g., rail-cars, airplanes) within an image product. Radiometric accuracy is characterized using reflectance-based vicarious calibration methods at several uniform sites. Each JACIE agency performs an aspect of product characterization based on its area of expertise, thus minimizing duplication of effort. The JACIE team collaborated to perform comprehensive characterization of products from Space Imaging Inc.'s IKONOS satellite and from DigitalGlobe's QuickBird satellite and is currently characterizing products from OrbImage s OrbView-3. JACIE assessments have resulted in several improvements to commercial image product quality and have enhanced working relationships between government and industry. Assessment results are presented at an annual JACIE High Spatial Resolution Commercial Imagery Workshop.

Zanoni, Vicki↗

Data-driven Community-centered Resilient Assessment and Planning Toolkit for Nexus of Energy and Water (DCRAPT-NEW)

Urban areas, including Detroit and Pittsburgh, have suffered significant dual outages of the electrical and water infrastructure in the past decade due, in part, to the increasing number of extreme weather events. With increasing temperatures and rainfall intensity, these regions need to prepare for increasing extreme events through community-based energy and water resilience analysis, planning, and enhancement. This project developed a suite of open-source, open-access, community-centered, data-driven assessment and distributed energy resource (DER) and planning tools for energy and water resilience enhancement in urban areas. Through establishing a multi-level community awareness and engagement mechanism and a comprehensive collection of power outage and flooding data, an innovative group of community energy and water resilience assessment and planning tools have been developed for a wide range of users with differing and variable sets of data available to them. The developed tools include (1) DOE EAGLE-I data-driven, deep-learning assisted resilience assessment and DER planning tools at the county level with socioeconomic factors incorporated; (2) Utility annual power outage data-driven tools for long term resilience assessment and DER planning and 15-min power outage data-driven tools for short term resilience assessment and planning; (3) Detailed engineering tools for energy and water systems resilience assessment and planning when the system topology and component fragility curves are available; (4) Alternative Resiliency Metric Calculation that extracts and separates outage and restoration processes; and (5) Co-optimization tools that evaluate the resilience of the power and sewage system and allow users to conduct joint planning with energy and wastewater systems. The developed tools provide planners, decision-makers, and stakeholders with powerful capabilities to systematically evaluate system/community resilience and optimal and actionable guidance for enhancing resilience while prioritizing DER investments. The tools have been used and validated in Detroit and Pittsburgh and can be used in other areas of the nation. In addition, this project will (1) advance the knowledge and applications of machine-learning methods in analyzing and fusing different layers of information and generating meaningful data points such as generating rare weather events; (2) significantly improve the energy and water resilience of the identified communities in Detroit and Pittsburgh and prepare for more frequent and severe weather conditions; (3) help communities assess extreme weather event impacts and address short-term and long-term resilience-related issues The developed tools have been made public via GitHub and demonstrated to community stakeholders and utility companies via the two annual workshops and numerous community engagement meetings. The project outcomes are also disseminated through publications in various journals and conference proceedings, and presentations at top conferences.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Industrial Assessment Center Program Final Progress Report

During September 1, 2016 to March 31, 2022 period, the University of Massachusetts’ Industrial Assessment Center completed 59 industrial assessments at plants across New England. Total annual sales for those plants, which employed 8,861 people, was close to $\$ 2.59$ billion. Our 317 recommendations amounted to potential savings of $\$ 6,866,009$, which represented 14.11% of the total energy costs these facilities incurred. By the time this report was prepared implementation information was available for all plants. A total of 132 recommendations, or 41.64%, were implemented, with annual savings totaling $\$ 1,856,921$, or 3.82% of total plant energy costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (–4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO 2 . Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Industrial Assessment Center Program Final Progress Report

During September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2023 period, the University of Massachusetts’ Industrial Assessment Center completed 36 industrial assessments at plants across New England. Total annual sales for those plants, which employed 2,664 people, were close to $1.15 billion. Our 212 recommendations amounted to potential savings of $7,069,352, which represented 24.14% of the total energy costs these facilities incurred.

Industrial Assessments Energy Efficiency Student T↗

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds (Annual Summary Report - FY 23)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the 200 West Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. All the trenches in these burial grounds except two have remained inactive since 2005. The only active trenches that continue to receive low-level and mixed low-level waste are Trenches 31 and 34 that are located in the southern portion of the 218-W-5 Burial Ground. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2023, from October 1, 2022, through September 30, 2023), waste was disposed in these two trenches.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 East Area Burial Grounds (Annual Summary Report - FY 23)

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the 200 East Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. All trenches in these burial grounds except one have remained inactive since 2005. Trench 94 located in 218-E-12B Burial Ground is the only active trench that is dedicated for disposal of U.S. Navy reactor compartments. During this reporting period (fiscal year 2023, from October 1, 2022, through September 30, 2023), no reactor compartments were disposed in Trench 94.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data-driven offshore CO 2 saline storage assessment methodology

The world produces approximately 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases annually. This is measured in CO 2 -equivalents, and geologic CO 2 storage has the potential to advance decarbonization and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies to assess offshore carbon storage are needed to address resource, regulatory, and commercial needs. Although most efforts to assess storage resources focus on onshore criteria, offshore reservoirs offer significant storage potential and distinct development challenges. Potential advantages of offshore carbon storage include being further from human population centers and less potential to interact with groundwater. The U.S. Department of Energy's method for evaluating storage capacity in non-oil-bearing saline reservoirs has been enhanced to support assessments for offshore environments in the Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage methodology (OCSS). This methodology applies data-driven capabilities to estimate saline storage capacity while accounting for features specific to offshore reservoirs. Features include changes in CO 2 density and sedimentary differences that impact estimates of permanence and capacity. The Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage Calculator mechanizes OCSS to estimate storage capacity. This paper presents the methodology and estimates for 18 geologic domains in the Gulf of Mexico. Potential storage distributions, sensitivity analyses, and the incorporation of spatial data and tools to support safe site selection are also discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cost‐benefit assessment framework for robotics‐driven inspection of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Energy Resilience Assessment and Enhancement in Urban Communities: A Case Study in Detroit

This paper presents a data-driven framework for assessing and enhancing energy resilience in urban communities. The resilience assessment is based on two datasets: 1) annual aggregated power outage data and 2) 15-minute interval outage data. High-impact, low-probability (HILP) events are identified within these datasets to evaluate community resilience under extreme conditions. To enhance resilience, an optimization framework utilizing mixed integer linear programming is developed to determine the optimal sizing and placement of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery energy storage systems (BESS). This method offers a cost-effective and practical solution for improving energy resilience in vulnerable communities. Furthermore, a case study of the City of Detroit in Michigan demonstrates the effectiveness of the framework through simulation and validation.

Energy resilience assessment↗

Tools Assessing Performance

For the distributed wind industry, it can be challenging to accurately predict the performance and annual energy production of projects prior to their installation. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project aims to improve wind resource characterization, thereby reducing the uncertainty of project performance and financing costs, increasing consumer confidence, and lowering the levelized cost of distributed wind energy. A collaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories, TAP will create a computational framework that provides the distributed wind community with access to newly developed wind resource data and modeling capabilities. These capabilities will allow users to perform timely and accurate performance assessments for distributed wind projects at locations across the United States.

wind, distributed, tools, performance↗

Seasonal and temporal changes in the vertical profiles of polar stratospheric ozone: 1978-1986

The long-term changes in stratospheric ozone in both Antarctic and Arctic regions during the period November 1978 to October 1986 exhibit significant interhemispheric differences in terms of time of onset, altitude, latitude, longitude, and phase. The 8-year data set of stratospheric ozone derived from observations with the Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) spectrometer instrument were deseasonalized by subtracting monthly deviations from 6-year monthly means for 10 degree bands centered at latitudes 80 S-80 N and the 64x64 standard NMC grid at standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. Linear trends are derived from the linear regression of monthly deviations from long term monthly means in terms of annual and monthly trends for the latitude region 55 to 81 degrees in both hemispheres. An assessment has been made of the SBUV instrument drift from analyses of annual deviations from long term annual means of stratospheric ozone in north temperate regions from 25 N-55 N with corresponding Umkehr observations from 5 stations at latitudes from 36 N-52 N which have been corrected for stratospheric aerosols derived from 5 lidar stations (DeLuisi and Mateer, 1988).

Heath, Donald F.↗