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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A knowledge-based approach to automated flow-field zoning for computational fluid dynamics

An automated three-dimensional zonal grid generation capability for computational fluid dynamics is shown through the development of a demonstration computer program capable of automatically zoning the flow field of representative two-dimensional (2-D) aerodynamic configurations. The applicability of a knowledge-based programming approach to the domain of flow-field zoning is examined. Several aspects of flow-field zoning make the application of knowledge-based techniques challenging: the need for perceptual information, the role of individual bias in the design and evaluation of zonings, and the fact that the zoning process is modeled as a constructive, design-type task (for which there are relatively few examples of successful knowledge-based systems in any domain). Engineering solutions to the problems arising from these aspects are developed, and a demonstration system is implemented which can design, generate, and output flow-field zonings for representative 2-D aerodynamic configurations.

Vogel, Alison Andrews↗
NASA NTRS1999

Jupiter's Deep Flowing Thermocline

The observed banded wind structure of Jupiter and Saturn remains an outstanding problem in planetary fluid dynamics. Both planets exhibit super-rotational equatorial jets (exceeding the underlying rotation of the magnetic fields tied to their deep fluid interiors), with speeds of some 100 and 400m/s, respectively, and counter-flowing lots at higher latitudes;. Recent analyses of the 1995 Galileo probe measurements, Hubble Telescope observations of the 1994 Shoemaker-Levy9 comet crash, and Earth-based infrared mapping provide evidence for a variably stratified, deeply seated flow layer. A now conceptual model for the jovian current system is proposed, in some ways resembling the oceanic thermocline, assuming a mixed distribution of potential vorticity atop a tropospheric wind layer of latitudinally variable stratification. A simple analytic version of the model links the strength, shape, and direction of the alternating zonal currents on Jupiter and Saturn to a single parameter equivalent to the internal deformation scale for an inferred deep stable region.

Allison, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2012

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)↗
NASA NTRS1988

How many upper Eocene microspherule layers: More than we thought

The scientific controversy over the origin of upper Eocene tektites, microtektites and other microspherules cannot be logically resolved until it is determined just how many events are involved. The microspherule-bearing beds in marine sediments have been dated using standard biozonal techniques. Although a powerful stratigraphic tool, zonal biostratigraph has its limitations. One is that if an event, such as a microspherule occurrence, is observed to occur in a zone at one locality and then a similar event observed in the same zone at another locality, it still may be unwarranted to conclude that these events exactly correlate. To be in a zone a sample only need be between the fossil events that define the zone boundaries. It is often very difficult to accurately determine where within a zone one might be. Further, the zone defining events do not everywhere occur at the same points in time. That is, the ranges of the defining taxa are not always filled. Thus, the length of time represented by a zone (but not, of course, its chronozone) can vary from place to place. These problems can be offset by use of chronostratigraphic modelling techniques such as Graphic Correlation. This technique was used to build a Cretaceous and Cenozoic model containing fossil, magnetopolarity, and other events. The scale of the model can be demonstrated to be linear with time. This model was used to determine the chronostratigraphic position of upper Eocene microspherule layers.

Hazel, Joseph E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Implementation of the Baldwin-Barth turbulence model into the ZETA code and its diagnosis

The Baldwin-Barth turbulence model was implemented into Zeta, a time-accurate, zonal, integro-differential code for incompressible laminar and turbulent flows. The implementation procedure is patterned after the model subroutine in ARC2D. The results of ZETA with the Baldwin-Barth turbulence model were compared with experimental data, with ZETA using Baldwin-Lomax model, and with ARC2D using the Baldwin-Barth model. The Baldwin-Barth model subroutine was tested by inputting an ARC2D velocity solution of an NACA-0012 airfoil at R(sub e) = 3.9 x 10(exp 6) and alpha = 5 deg. The resultant turbulent viscosity and Reynolds stresses compared favorably with the original data. For the same grid having grid points inside the laminar sublayer, which is necessary due to the one-equation nature of the model, ZETA however predicts early separation. It was found that the current ZETA has problem with such a fine grid. Further work is in progress to solve this problem.

Low, Scott L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Analyzing Martian winds and tracer concentrations using Mars Observer data

During the courses of a day, the Mars Observer spacecraft will acquire globally distributed profiles of the martian atmosphere. It is highly desirable that this data be assembled into synoptic weather maps (complete specifications of the atmospheric pressure, temperature, and winds at a given time), which can in turn be used as starting points in the study of many meteorological phenomena. Unfortunately, the special nature of the Mars Observer data presents several challenges above and beyond the usual difficult problem of data initialization. Mars Observer atmospheric data will consist almost exclusively of asynoptic vertical profiles of temperatures (or radiances) and pressures, whereas winds are generally in balance with horizontal gradients of these quantities (which will not be observed). It will therefore be necessary to resort to dynamical models to analyze the wind fields. As a rule, data assimilation into atmospheric models can result in the generation of spurious gravity waves, so special steps must be taken to suppress these. In addition, the asynoptic nature of the data will require a four-dimensional (space and time) data assimilation scheme. The problem is to find a full set of meteorological fields (winds and temperatures) such that, when marched forward in time in the model, they achieve a best fit (in the weighted least-squares sense) to the data. The proposed solution is to develop a model especially for the Mars Observer data assimilation problem. Gravity waves are filtered from the model by eliminating all divergence terms from the prognostic divergence equation. This leaves a diagnostic gradient wind relation between the rotational wind and the temperature field. The divergent wind is diagnosed as the wind required to maintain the gradient wind balance in the presence of the diabatic heating. The primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics (with three principal dependent variables) are thus reduced to a simpler system with a single prognostic equation for temperature - the variable that will be best observed. (This balance system was apparently first derived by Charney as a first-order Rossby number expansion of the equations of motion). Experience with a full primitive equation model of the martian atmosphere indicates that a further simplification is possible: at least for short-term integrations, the model can be linearized about the zonally symmetric basic state.

Houben, Howard C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Tung, K. K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Efficient computation of optimal low thrust gravity perturbed orbit transfers

We have developed a new method for solving low-thrust fuel-optimal orbit transfer problems in the vicinity of a large body (planet or asteroid), considering a high-fidelity spherical harmonic gravity model. The algorithm is formulated via the indirect optimization method, leading to a two-point boundary value problem (TPBVP). We make use of a hyperbolic tangent smoothing law for performing continuation on the thrust magnitude to reduce the sharpness of the control switches in early iterations and thus promote convergence. The TPBVP is solved using the method of particular solutions (MPS) shooting method and Picard-Chebyshev numerical integration. Application of Picard-Chebyshev integration affords an avenue for increased efficiency that is not available with step-by-step integrators. We demonstrate that computing the particular solutions with only a low-fidelity force model greatly increases the efficiency of the algorithm while ultimately achieving near machine precision accuracy. A salient feature of the MPS is that it is parallelizable, and thus further speedups are available. It is also shown that, for near Earth orbits and over a small number of en-route revolutions around the Earth, only the zonal perturbation terms are required in the costate equations to obtain a solution that is accurate to machine precision and optimal to engineering precision. The proposed framework can be used for trajectory design around small asteroids and also for orbit debris rendezvous and removal tasks.

Junkins, John L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Turbulence model reduction by deep learning

A defining problem of turbulence theory is to produce a predictive model for turbulent fluxes. These have profound implications for virtually all aspects of the turbulence dynamics. In magnetic confinement devices, drift-wave turbulence produces anomalous fluxes via cross-correlations between fluctuations. In this work, we introduce an alternative, data-driven method for parametrizing these fluxes. The method uses deep supervised learning to infer a reduced mean-field model from a set of numerical simulations. We apply the method to a simple drift-wave turbulence system and find a significant new effect which couples the particle flux to the local gradient of vorticity. Notably, here, this effect is much stronger than the oft-invoked shear suppression effect. We also recover the result via a simple calculation. The vorticity gradient effect tends to modulate the density profile. In addition, our method recovers a model for spontaneous zonal flow generation by negative viscosity, stabilized by nonlinear and hyperviscous terms. We highlight the important role of symmetry to implementation of the new method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2001

Venus Multiprobe Mission

A summary of the proposal for the Discovery Program Venus Multiprobe Mission (VMPM) which was submitted in 1994 will be presented. The major goal of the mission was to provide sufficient observations of winds and thermal structure in the Venus atmosphere that the mechanism producing the atmospheric superrotation could be identified. The superrotation has been a major unsolved problem of planetary science for over 30 years. In spite of many theoretical efforts and many spacecraft missions to Venus, the principal driving mechanism(s) remain undetermined. Sixteen small probes, modeled after the Pioneer Venus small probes, would enter the Venus atmosphere, and measure winds, temperatures, and pressures from 60 km to the surface. Towards the bottom of the atmosphere, measurements would be made at 10 meter intervals. Temperature and pressure measurements are similar to those used on Pioneer Venus, but are four times more sensitive. Winds would be obtained by dual-frequency, differential. long-baseline interferometry, using S- and X-band transmitters on the probes, and four receiving telescopes round the Pacific rim. The precision of wind measurements is 0.05 ms- 1 or better, at least twenty times more precise than for Pioneer Venus. Ground based observations occurring in conjunction with the multiprobe entries would provide a temporal context for the upper boundary to the probe observations. UV and near IR features would be tracked for periods of hours to weeks to obtain cloud level zonal mean and transient eddy circulations with accuracies of 10 /ms or better. The data would be processed into wind and opacity maps. A hierarchy of atmospheric numerical models would be used to distinguish different dynamical elements existing in the data. Primary among the models was the development of a Venus general circulation model containing all known physical processes.

Young, Richard E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comprehensive review on the loss of wellbore integrity due to cement failure and available remedial methods

With the recent abrupt fluctuations in oil pricing and the need of complying with environmental and social requirements, nowadays it is an urgent call for the oil and gas industry to produce the hydrocarbon without any loss as well as in a safe manner. Cements are placed in the annular space of casing to provide zonal isolation in between wellbore and surface during the operational life cycle of the well or even after the abandonment. But this is not what happens most of the time. Cement degrades or loses its integrity through debonding either from the casing or formation and generates cracks or fractures due to varied reasons throughout the life of the well. Multiple causes contribute to the loss of wellbore integrity – either by physical, mechanical, or chemical processes. These failures lead to sustained casing pressure (SCP) and contamination of surrounding environment. To combat this issue or to restore the well integrity, multiple remedial actions have also been either implemented in the industry or proposed based on experimental research to prevent the damage or to seal the leakage in the cement sheath. Here, this paper will provide an extensive review of the underlying reasons of cement failure and the available remedial actions to minimize the loss of well integrity issue. These information are not only useful to know about the different corrective options available for us to implement in industry but also it will provide us a knowledge base regarding how we can enhance the performance of the exiting systems to battle the cement integrity problem more efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multi-year short-range hindcast experiment with CESM1 for evaluating climate model moist processes from diurnal to interannual timescales

Abstract. We present a multi-year short-range hindcast experiment and its experimental design for better evaluation of both the mean state and variability of atmospheric moist processes in climate models from diurnal to interannual timescales and facilitate model development. We used the Community Earth System Model version 1 as the base model and performed a suite of 3 d hindcasts initialized every day starting at 00:00 Z from 1997 to 2012. Three processes – the diurnal cycle of clouds during different cloud regimes over the central US, precipitation and diabatic heating associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the response of precipitation, surface radiative and heat fluxes, as well as zonal wind stress to sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – are evaluated as examples to demonstrate how one can better utilize simulations from this experiment to gain insights into model errors and their connection to physical parameterizations or large-scale state. This is achieved by comparing the hindcasts with corresponding long-term observations for periods based on different phenomena. These analyses can only be done through this multi-year hindcast approach to establish robust statistics of the processes under well-controlled large-scale environment because these phenomena are either a result of interannual climate variability or only happen a few times in a given year (e.g., MJO, or cloud regime types). Furthermore, comparison of hindcasts to the typical simulations in climate mode with the same model allows one to infer what portion of a model's climate error directly comes from fast errors in the parameterizations of moist processes. As demonstrated here, model biases in the mean state and variability associated with parameterized moist processes usually develop within a few days and manifest within weeks to affect the simulations of large-scale circulation and ultimately the climate mean state and variability. Therefore, model developers can achieve additional useful understanding of the underlying problems in model physics by conducting a multi-year hindcast experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Individual thermal profiles as a basis for comfort improvement in space and other environments

BACKGROUND: The development of individualized countermeasures to address problems in thermoregulation is of considerable importance for humans in space and other extreme environments. A methodology is presented for evaluating minimal/maximal heat flux from the total human body and specific body zones, and for assessing individual differences in the efficiency of heat exchange from these body areas. The goal is to apply this information to the design of individualized protective equipment. METHODS: A multi-compartment conductive plastic tubing liquid cooling/warming garment (LCWG) was developed. Inlet water temperatures of 8-45 degrees C were imposed sequentially to specific body areas while the remainder of the garment was maintained at 33 degrees C. RESULTS: There were significant differences in heat exchange level among body zones in both the 8 degrees and 45 degrees C temperature conditions (p < 0.001). The greatest amount of heat was absorbed/released by the following areas: thighs (8 degrees C: -2.12 +/- 0.14 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.58 +/- 0.23); torso (8 degrees C: -2.12 +/- 0.13 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.31 +/- 0.27); calves (8 degrees C: -1.59 +/- 0.26 kcal min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.53 +/- 0.24); and forearms (8 degrees C: -1.67 +/- 0.29 kcal x min(-1); 45 degrees C: +1.45 +/- 0.20). These are primarily zones with relatively large muscle mass and adipose tissue. Calculation of absorption/release heat rates standardized per unit tube length and flow rate instead of zonal surface area covered showed that there was significantly greater heat transfer in the head, hands, and feet (p < 0.001). The areas in which there was considerable between-subject variability in rates of heat transfer and thus most informative for individual profile design were the torso, thighs, shoulders, and calves or forearms. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology developed is sensitive to individual differences in the process of heat exchange and variations in different body areas, depending on their size and tissue mass content. The design of individual thermal profiles is feasible for better comfort of astronauts on long-duration missions and personnel in other extreme environments.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗
NASA NTRS2012

Highlights of TOMS Version 9 Total Ozone Algorithm

The fundamental basis of TOMS total ozone algorithm was developed some 45 years ago by Dave and Mateer. It was designed to estimate total ozone from satellite measurements of the backscattered UV radiances at few discrete wavelengths in the Huggins ozone absorption band (310-340 nm). Over the years, as the need for higher accuracy in measuring total ozone from space has increased, several improvements to the basic algorithms have been made. They include: better correction for the effects of aerosols and clouds, an improved method to account for the variation in shape of ozone profiles with season, latitude, and total ozone, and a multi-wavelength correction for remaining profile shape errors. These improvements have made it possible to retrieve total ozone with just 3 spectral channels of moderate spectral resolution (approx. 1 nm) with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art spectral fitting algorithms like DOAS that require high spectral resolution measurements at large number of wavelengths. One of the deficiencies of the TOMS algorithm has been that it doesn't provide an error estimate. This is a particular problem in high latitudes when the profile shape errors become significant and vary with latitude, season, total ozone, and instrument viewing geometry. The primary objective of the TOMS V9 algorithm is to account for these effects in estimating the error bars. This is done by a straightforward implementation of the Rodgers optimum estimation method using a priori ozone profiles and their error covariances matrices constructed using Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. The algorithm produces a vertical ozone profile that contains 1-2.5 pieces of information (degrees of freedom of signal) depending upon solar zenith angle (SZA). The profile is integrated to obtain the total column. We provide information that shows the altitude range in which the profile is best determined by the measurements. One can use this information in data assimilation and analysis. A side benefit of this algorithm is that it is considerably simpler than the present algorithm that uses a database of 1512 profiles to retrieve total ozone. These profiles are tedious to construct and modify. Though conceptually similar to the SBUV V8 algorithm that was developed about a decade ago, the SBUV and TOMS V9 algorithms differ in detail. The TOMS algorithm uses 3 wavelengths to retrieve the profile while the SBUV algorithm uses 6-9 wavelengths, so TOMS provides less profile information. However both algorithms have comparable total ozone information and TOMS V9 can be easily adapted to use additional wavelengths from instruments like GOME, OMI and OMPS to provide better profile information at smaller SZAs. The other significant difference between the two algorithms is that while the SBUV algorithm has been optimized for deriving monthly zonal means by making an appropriate choice of the a priori error covariance matrix, the TOMS algorithm has been optimized for tracking short-term variability using month and latitude dependent covariance matrices.

Bhartia, Pawan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗