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At least 145 records · Page 8

Flight inspection data and crack initiation times

Lockheed C-130 service-flight inspection data is reduced by means of fracture mechanics and statistical analysis into a form from which the probability of time to crack initiation and the distribution of initial flaw sizes for various locations on the aircraft can be determined. Crack sizes are normalized by extrapolating a growing crack backwards from its first recorded size to .03 inches (crack initiation size) yielding the time to crack initiation. In a similar fashion, the crack is grown backwards to a time equal to zero to yield an initial flaw size. In order to perform the discussed computations, crack growth constants were computed for each individual location and were analyzed statistically. Statistical distributions were fitted to times to crack initiation and to initial flaw sizes in order to describe their expected behavior. Weibull and Johnson distributions have been found to fit the data reasonably well but for a better fit convolution integrals of Poisson load distributions and Weibull strength distributions are needed.

Johnson, W. S.↗

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

This is the third annual technical report for the program entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, for the period February 16, 1987 to February 15, 1988. The objective of the original program was the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. Injection molding is the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals of the revised program are to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in 4-point loading. Two tasks are discussed: Task 1 which involves materials and process improvements, and Task 2 which is a MOR bar matrix to improve strength and reliability. Many statistically designed experiments were completed under task 1 which improved the composition of the batches, the mixing of the powders, the sinter and anneal cycles. The best results were obtained by an attritor mixing process which yielded strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and an individual Weibull modulus of 16.8 for a 9-sample group. Strengths measured at 1200 and 1400 C were equal to the room temperature strength. Annealing of machined test bars significantly improved the strength. Molding yields were measured and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. The second iteration of the Task 2 matrix experiment is described.

Whalen, Thomas J.↗

Turn Your Half-Cut Cells for a Stronger Module

Here, we employ an existing model of crystalline silicon photovoltaic module cell fracture to explore the effect of cell size and orientation on their probability of fracture under module uniform loading. In addition, we also apply continuum damage mechanics to modify this model to consider the effect of cell fracture on the probability of subsequent cell fracture. We elucidate that cell fracture increases the probability of subsequent cell fracture and that rectangular modules containing half-cells aligned with the module's long orientation are much more robust against cell fracture than full-cell and half-cell short orientation modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Explicit 3D continuum fracture modeling with smooth particle hydrodynamics

Impact phenomena shaped our solar system. As usual for most solar system processes, the scales are far different than we can address directly in the laboratory. Impact velocities are often much higher than we can achieve, sizes are often vastly larger, and most impacts take place in an environment where the only gravitational force is the mutual pull of the impactors. The Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique has been applied in the past to the simulations of giant impacts. In these simulations, the colliding objects were so massive (at least a sizeable fraction of the Earth's mass) that material strength was negligible compared to gravity. This assumption can no longer be made when the bodies are much smaller. To this end, we have developed a 3D SPH code that includes a strength model to which we have added a von Mises yielding relation for stresses beyond the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. At the lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution. Following Grady and Kipp and Melosh et al., we introduce a state variable D ('damage'), 0 less than D less than 1, which expresses the local reduction in strength due to crack growth under tensile loading. Unfortunately for the hydrodynamics, Grady and Kipp's model predicts which fragments are the most probable ones and not the ones that are really formed. This means, for example, that if a given laboratory experiment is modeled, the fragment distribution obtained from the Grady-Kipp theory would be equivalent to a ensemble average over many realizations of the experiment. On the other hand, the hydrodynamics itself is explicit and evolves not an ensemble average but very specific fragments. Hence, there is a clear incompatibility with the deterministic nature of the hydrodynamics equations and the statistical approach of the Grady-Kipp dynamical fracture model. We remedy these shortcomings by making the incipient flaw distribution explicit, i.e., particles carry activation strains which are distributed at random with a probability of occurrence given by the Weibull distribution. If the local principal axis strain exceeds this limit, damage starts to grow. By growing explicit cracks together with statistical cracks (damage) at the sub-particle scale, we ensure that material strength and fragmentation is independent of model resolution. We tested our scheme by simulating laboratory impact experiments on basalt spheres.

Benz, W.↗

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

The technology base required to fabricate silicon nitride components with the strength, reliability, and reproducibility necessary for actual heat engine applications is presented. Task 2 was set up to develop test bars with high Weibull slope and greater high temperature strength, and to conduct an initial net shape component fabrication evaluation. Screening experiments were performed in Task 7 on advanced materials and processing for input to Task 2. The technical efforts performed in the second year of a 5-yr program are covered. The first iteration of Task 2 was completed as planned. Two half-replicated, fractional factorial (2 sup 5), statistically designed matrix experiments were conducted. These experiments have identified Denka 9FW Si3N4 as an alternate raw material to GTE SN502 Si3N4 for subsequent process evaluation. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted to correlate processing conditions with as-processed test bar properties. One processing condition produced a material with a 97 ksi average room temperature MOR (100 percent of goal) with 13.2 Weibull slope (83 percent of goal); another condition produced 86 ksi (6 percent over baseline) room temperature strength with a Weibull slope of 20 (125 percent of goal).

Yeh, Hun C.↗

Statistical Distributions for Mesh Independent Solutions in ALEGRA

The representation of material heterogeneity (also referred to as "spatial variation") plays a key role in the material failure simulation method used in ALEGRA. ALEGRA is an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian shock and multiphysics code developed at Sandia National Laboratories and contains several methods for incorporating spatial variation into simulations. A desirable property of a spatial variation method is that it should produce consistent stochastic behavior regardless of the mesh used (a property referred to as "mesh independence"). However, mesh dependence has been reported using the Weibull distribution with ALEGRA's spatial variation method. This report describes efforts towards providing additional insight into both the theory and numerical experiments investigating such mesh dependence. In particular, we have implemented a discrete minimum order statistic model with properties that are theoretically mesh independent.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Ward, Steven N.↗

Life and reliability of rotating disks

In aerospace applications, an engineer must be especially cognizant of size and weight constraints which affect design decisions. Although designing at or below the material fatigue limit may be desirable in most industrial applications, in aerospace application it is almost mandatory to design certain components for a finite life at an acceptable probability of survival. Zaretsky outlined such a methodology based in part on the work of W. Weibull (1939, 1951) and G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren (1947a, 1947b, 1952). It is the objective of this work to apply the method of Zaretsky (1987) to statistically predict the life of a generic solid disk with and without bolt holes; determine the effect of disk design variables, thermal loads, and speed on relative life; and develop a generalized equation for determining disk life by incorporating only these variables.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

Solar F10.7 radiation - A short term model for Space Station applications

A new method is described for statistically modeling the F10.7 component of solar radiation for 91-day intervals. The resulting model represents this component of the solar flux as a quasi-exponentially correlated, Weibull distributed random variable, and thereby demonstrates excellent agreement with observed F10.7 data. Values of the F10.7 flux are widely used in models of the earth's upper atmosphere because of its high correlation with density fluctuations due to solar heating effects. Because of the direct relation between atmospheric density and drag, a realistic model of the short term fluctuation of the F10.7 flux is important for the design and operation of Space Station Freedom. The method of modeling this flux described in this report should therefore be useful for a variety of Space Station applications.

Vedder, John D.↗

Droplet size distributions in turbulent clouds: experimental evaluation of theoretical distributions

Precipitation efficiency and optical properties of clouds, both central to determining Earth's weather and climate, depend on the size distribution of cloud particles. Here in this paper, theoretical expressions for cloud droplet size distribution shape are evaluated using measurements from controlled experiments in a convective-cloud chamber. The experiments are a unique opportunity to constrain theory because they are in steady-state and because the initial and boundary conditions are well characterized compared to typical atmospheric measurements. Three theoretical distributions obtained from a Langevin drift-diffusion approach to cloud formation via stochastic condensation are tested: (a) stochastic condensation with a constant removal time-scale; (b) stochastic condensation with a size-dependent removal time-scale; (c) droplet growth in a fixed supersaturation condition and with size-dependent removal. In addition, a similar Weibull distribution that can be obtained from the drift-diffusion approach, as well as from mechanism-independent probabilistic arguments (e.g., maximum entropy), is tested as a fourth hypothesis. Statistical techniques such as the χ2 test, sum of squared errors of prediction, and residual analysis are employed to judge relative success or failure of the theoretical distributions to describe the experimental data. An extensive set of cloud droplet size distributions are measured under different aerosol injection rates. Five different aerosol injection rates are run both for size-selected aerosol particles, and six aerosol injection rates are run for broad-distribution, polydisperse aerosol particles. In relative comparison, the most favourable comparison to the measurements is the expression for stochastic condensation with size-dependent droplet removal rate. However, even this optimal distribution breaks down for broad aerosol size distributions, primarily due to deviations from the measured large-droplet tail. Lastly, a possible explanation for the deviation is the Ostwald ripening effect coupled with deactivation/activation in polluted cloud conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System-Availability And Resource-Allocation Program

ACARA analyzes availability, life-cycle cost, and scheduling of resources. Uses statistical Monte Carlo method to simulate capacity states of system as well as failure and repair of components. Failures of components modeled mathematically by use of combination of exponential and Weibull probability distributions. Schedules replacement of components to optimize performance of system. Made to comply with any constraints on production of components, capacities of resupply vehicles, spares kept on site, crews, and/or equipment. Written in APL2.

Viterna, L. A.↗

Study Of Corrosion Of Lead-Sheathed Cables

Report presents statistical analysis of corrosion failures of lead-sheathed cables that serve as primary communication links at Kennedy Space Center. In study, corrosion-failure data analyzed by use of Weibull distribution in effort to assess effectiveness of cathodic protection and to predict future failures.

Lee, Rupert U.↗

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗

Grain boundary oxidation and low-cycle fatigue at elevated temperatures

Fatigue life consists of fatigue crack nucleation and propagation periods. In order to predict fatigue life accurately, a methodology for the quantitative assessment of these two fatigue damage processes had to be devised. Grain boundary oxidation penetrates faster than does oxidation within a grain. This faster oxidation penetration causes intergranular fatigue failures at elevated temperatures. Grain boundary oxidation accelerates both crack nucleation and propagation. Grain boundary oxidation kinetics and the statistical distribution of grain boundary oxide penetration depth were measured. Quantitative applications of the grain boundary oxidation kinetics to fatigue crack nucleation and propagation were analyzed. A method, based on the Weibull distribution, of extrapolating the laboratory oxidation data measured with small samples to large engineering structures is presented.

Liu, H. W.↗

Failure Modes in Capacitors When Tested Under a Time-Varying Stress

Steady step surge testing (SSST) is widely applied to screen out potential power-on failures in solid tantalum capacitors. The test simulates the power supply's on and off characteristics. Power-on failure has been the prevalent failure mechanism for solid tantalum capacitors for decoupling applications. On the other hand, the SSST can also be reviewed as an electrically destructive test under a time-varying stress. It consists of rapidly charging the capacitor with incremental voltage increases, through a low resistance in series, until the capacitor under test is electrically shorted. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) is usually a time-efficient method for determining the failure mechanism in capacitors; however, a destructive test under a time-varying stress like SSST is even more effective. It normally takes days to complete a HALT test, but it only takes minutes for a time-varying stress test to produce failures. The advantage of incorporating specific time-varying stress into a statistical model is significant in providing an alternative life test method for quickly revealing the failure modes in capacitors. In this paper, a time-varying stress has been incorporated into the Weibull model to characterize the failure modes. The SSST circuit and transient conditions to correctly test the capacitors is discussed. Finally, the SSST was applied for testing polymer aluminum capacitors (PA capacitors), Ta capacitors, and multi-layer ceramic capacitors with both precious metal electrode (PME) and base-metal-electrodes (BME). It appears that testing results are directly associated to the dielectric layer breakdown in PA and Ta capacitors and are independent on the capacitor values, the way the capacitors being built, and the manufactures. The testing results also reveal that ceramic capacitors exhibit breakdown voltages more than 20 times the rated voltage, and the breakdown voltages are inverse proportional to the dielectric layer thickness. The possibility of ceramic capacitors in front-end decoupling applications to block the surge noise from a power supply is also discussed.

Liu, David (Donhang)↗

Microscale Constitutive Model Sensitivity on Multiscale Modeling of Fiber Reinforced Composites

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to microscale variability during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. The impact microscale variability has on macroscale mechanical response is difficult to predict due to the computational efficiency needed to simulate many, large, high fidelity, microscale models. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using an efficient micromechanical. Mesoscale models were created where element sizes equaled microstructure size, and properties were assigned through sampling of microscale simulation results. First, this study showed the effect of using Weibull scaling on constituent matrix strength on macroscale response. Then, a comparison was made between different element sizes and experiments. Finally, model dimensions were fixed, and the effect of randomly distributed local properties alone was examined. Results showed that the scatter of strength and stiffness in the experiments could be predicted well using images of the microscale fiber morphologies and that using stochastic properties produced a 3% coefficient of variation of strength for all experiments.

statistical microstructure↗

Pharmaceuticals Exposed to the Space Environment: Problems and Prospects

The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Health Countermeasures Element maintains ongoing efforts to inform detailed risks, gaps, and further questions associated with the use of pharmaceuticals in space. Most recently, the Pharmacology Risk Report, released in 2010, illustrates the problems associated with maintaining pharmaceutical efficacy. Since the report, one key publication includes evaluation of pharmaceutical products stored on the International Space Station (ISS). This study shows that selected pharmaceuticals on ISS have a shorter shelf-life in space than corresponding terrestrial controls. The HRP Human Research Roadmap for planetary exploration identifies the risk of ineffective or toxic medications due to long-term storage during missions to Mars. The roadmap also identifies the need to understand and predict how pharmaceuticals will behave when exposed to radiation for long durations. Terrestrial studies of returned samples offer a start for predictive modeling. This paper shows that pharmaceuticals returned to Earth for post-flight analyses are amenable to a Weibull distribution analysis in order to support probabilistic risk assessment modeling. The paper also considers the prospect of passive payloads of key pharmaceuticals on sample return missions outside of Earth's magnetic field to gather additional statistics. Ongoing work in radiation chemistry suggests possible mitigation strategies where future work could be done at cryogenic temperatures to explore methods for preserving the strength of pharmaceuticals in the space radiation environment, perhaps one day leading to an architecture where pharmaceuticals are cached on the Martian surface and preserved cryogenically.

pharmacology↗