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Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Attitude Sensor and Gyro Calibration for Messenger

The Redundant Inertial Measurement Unit Attitude Determination/Calibration (RADICAL(TM)) filter was used to estimate star tracker and gyro calibration parameters using MESSENGER telemetry data from three calibration events. We present an overview of the MESSENGER attitude sensors and their configuration is given, the calibration maneuvers are described, the results are compared with previous calibrations, and variations and trends in the estimated calibration parameters are examined. The warm restart and covariance bump features of the RADICAL(TM) filter were used to estimate calibration parameters from two disjoint telemetry streams. Results show that the calibration parameters converge faster with much less transient variation during convergence than when the filter is cold-started at the start of each telemetry stream.

O'Shaughnessy, Daniel↗

Calculation of external-internal flow fields for mixed-compression inlets

Supersonic inlet flows with mixed external-internal compressions were computed using a combined implicit-explicit (Beam-Warming-Steger/MacCormack) method for solving the three-dimensional unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations in conservation form. Numerical calculations were made of various flows related to such inlet operations as the shock-wave intersections, subsonic spillage around the cowl lip, and inlet started versus unstarted conditions. Some of the computed results were compared with wind tunnel data.

Chyu, W. J.↗

Calculation of external-internal flow fields for mixed-compression inlets

Supersonic inlet flows with mixed external-internal compressions were computed using a combined implicit-explicit (Beam-Warming-Steger/MacCormack) method for solving the three-dimensional unsteady, compressible Navier-Stokes equations in conservation form. Numerical calculations were made of various flows related to such inlet operations as the shock-wave intersections, subsonic spillage around the cowl lip, and inlet started versus unstarted conditions. Some of the computed results were compared with wind tunnel data.

Chyu, W. J.↗

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Nonuniform Response of Vegetation Phenology to Daytime and Nighttime Warming in Urban Areas

The phenological response of vegetation to changing climates requires exploration across environments, including urban areas with elevated daytime and nighttime temperatures (T D and T N ) and artificial lights. Here, we analyzed multiple remotely-sensed datasets (2012–2021) from and around a highly-urbanized area, Seoul, in South Korea. While the urban fraction and artificial lights largely contributed to advancing the start-of-season (SOS) and delaying the end-of-season (EOS) (30.7–42.1%), SOS changes were more driven by T D (15.7%), whereas EOS changes were more attributed to T N (21.8%). A higher response of the SOS to T D was found in more urbanized areas with higher artificial lights, while the sensitivity of the EOS to T N increased in brighter areas during nighttime. These findings indicate that vegetation’s response to rising temperatures will become dynamic, given the potential constraints by light and other attributes, calling for further assessments of its implication for terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle.

JiHyun Kim↗

High-brightness electron injectors for high-duty cycle X-ray free electron lasers

The successful development in the last two decades of X-ray free electron lasers (FELs) with their revolutionary brightness performance has been tightly dependent on the parallel development of electron guns and injectors capable of providing the high-brightness electron beams required by FELs lasing at these short wavelengths. The ultimate brightness delivered by a linear accelerator (linac) is already set at its injector and the remaining part of the accelerator can be only designed to preserve the injector performance. The technology to be used for the accelerator part of an X-Ray FEL strongly depends on the duty-cycle at which the FEL operates. Normal-conducting, room-temperature, copper-based radio frequency (RF) technology is typically used for low duty-cycles of up to approximately 10 −3 . For higher duty-cycles and up to continuous wave (CW) operation, the linac must rely on superconductive RF technology because, with the higher duty-cycle, the increasingly higher power dissipated in normal conducting RF structures becomes excessive for the warm technology. The situation changes in the lower energy part of the accelerator, where injector schemes, based on direct current, normal-conducting, and superconducting RF electron guns, are demonstrating the beam quality performance required by high-duty-cycle X-ray FELs. In this paper we start with a description of the requirements for such injectors, followed by an overview of the pursued technologies and schemes, and by a discussion on the main differences in terms of beam dynamics between low and high duty-cycle injectors.

Sannibale, Fernando↗

GCM sensitivity to 1982 - 1983 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

The response of the GLAS climate model to the much larger 1982-83 sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies is discussed. Two separate 75 day experiments (control and anomaly simulation pairs) were started from observed initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1982 and initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1979 taken from a 2 year model control run after one year of simulation, respectively. The January control and anomaly SST fields used in both experiments are given. Notable is the greatly extended region of very warm (approximately equal to 29 C) SST water in the anomaly simulation. The January SST anomaly field is representative of the other months of the experiments, all of which had a much larger region of very warm SST in the anomaly simulation than in the previously noted general circulation model studies. The model used is an improved version of the GLAS B-grid GCM used by Shukla and Wallace (1983). The most important physical change in the model is the inclusion of the surface flux parameterization of Deardorff (1972) as modified by Randall (1976). An important improvement in the model simulations is the removal of the climate drift towards unrealistically high temperatures in the tropics, which was moted by Shukla and Wallace (1983).

Fennessy, M. J.↗

Co-existence of atomically dispersed Ru and Ce 3+ sites is responsible for excellent low temperature N 2 O reduction activity of Ru/CeO 2

Nitrous oxide N 2 O reduction is a big challenge due to high global warming potential of N 2 O. (~300 times higher compared with CO 2 ). The best known catalysts, such as Rh/ceria, require relatively high temperatures for N 2 O decomposition. Herein, we report that Ru/ceria catalysts with low Ru loading of ~0.25 wt% efficiently catalyze low temperature N 2 O reduction by CO starting at 100 °C (full N 2 O conversion below 200 °C) under industrially relevant flow rates and gas concentrations. Further, this remarkable performance stems from maintaining isolated Ru cations even on reduced ceria surface and, simultaneously, the propensity of Ru to affect ceria surface to form labile surface oxygen thereby creating large number of oxygen vacancies (Ce +3 cations) in the presence of CO. In contrast, for Rh/CeO 2 catalysts with equivalent metal loading, the activity is much lower because atomically dispersed Rh sinters into metallic clusters at the onset reaction temperature (~200 °C): these clusters are much less effective than isolated single Ru ions, with lower Ce +3 concentration maintained on reduced Rh/CeO 2 catalyst. Our study highlights the benefits of gaining molecular-level insight into the dynamic nature of catalytically active sites under reaction conditions for preparing catalysts containing low loading of precious metals with unsurpassed low temperature activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Seasonal Evolution of Saturn's Polar Temperatures and Composition

The seasonal evolution of Saturn's polar atmospheric temperatures and hydrocarbon composition is derived from a decade of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) 7-16 micrometers thermal infrared spectroscopy. We construct a near-continuous record of atmospheric variability poleward of 60 deg from northern winter/southern summer (2004, Ls = 293 deg) through the equinox (2009, Ls= 0 deg) to northern spring/southern autumn (2014, Ls = 56 deg). The hot tropospheric polar cyclones that are entrained by pro-grade jets within 2-3 deg of each pole, and the hexagonal shape of the north polar belt, are both persistent features throughout the decade of observations. The hexagon vertices rotated westward by approx. equal to 30 deg longitude between March 2007 and April 2013, confirming that they are not stationary in the Voyager-defined System III longitude system as previously thought. Tropospheric temperature contrasts between the cool polar zones (near 80-85 deg) and warm polar belts (near 75-80 deg) have varied in both hemispheres, resulting in changes to the vertical wind shear on the zonal jets in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The extended region of south polar stratospheric emission has cooled dramatically poleward of the sharp temperature gradient near 75 deg S (by approximately -5 K/yr), coinciding with a depletion in the abundances of acetylene (0030 +/- 0.005 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.35 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr), and suggestive of stratospheric upwelling with vertical wind speeds of w approx. equal to +0.1 mm/s. The upwelling appears most intense within 5 deg latitude of the south pole. This is mirrored by a general warming of the northern polar stratosphere (+5 K/yr) and an enhancement in acetylene (0.030 +/- 0.003 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.45 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr) abundances that appears to be most intense poleward of 75 deg N, suggesting subsidence at w approx. equal to -0.15 mm/ s. However, the sharp gradient in stratospheric emission expected to form near 75 deg N by northern summer solstice (2017, Ls = 90 deg) has not yet been observed, so we continue to await the development of a northern summer stratospheric vortex. The peak stratospheric warming in the north occurs at lower pressure levels (p less than 1 mbar) than the peak stratospheric cooling in the south (p greater than 1 mbar). Vertical motions are derived from both the temperature field (using the measured rates of temperature change and the deviations from the expectations of radiative equilibrium models) and hydrocarbon distributions (solving the continuity equation). Vertical velocities tend towards zero in the upper troposphere where seasonal temperature contrasts are smaller, except within the tropospheric polar cyclones where w approx. equal to +0.02 mm/s. North polar minima in tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures were detected in 2008-2010 (lagging one season, or 6-8 years, behind winter solstice); south polar maxima appear to have occurred before the start of the Cassini observations (1-2 years after summer solstice), consistent with the expectations of radiative climate models. The influence of dynamics implies that the coldest winter temperatures occur in the 75-80 deg region in the stratosphere, and in the cool polar zones in the troposphere, rather than at the poles themselves. In addition to vertical motions, we propose that the UV-absorbent polar stratospheric aerosols entrained within Saturn's vortices contribute significantly to the radiative budget at the poles, adding to the localized enhancement in the south polar cooling and north polar warming poleward of +/-75 deg.

polar temperatures↗

Driving the Shift to Energy-Efficient and Climate-Responsible Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in Chile

This report provides an overview of global and Chile-specific market trends, technological advancements, and policy developments related to commercial refrigeration equipment, with an emphasis on refrigerated display cabinets. Section 2 examines CRE market trends at the global and Chilean levels. Section 3 presents CRE energy consumption and the latest technological options for improving energy performance. It also discusses low global warming potential (GWP)1 refrigerant options for CRE. Section 4 provides a cost-effectiveness analysis. Section 5 reviews other regional energy efficiency standards and labeling programs and offers potential standard requirements for Chile. Section 6 concludes the report by summarizing key findings and conclusions. Finally, Appendix A provides detailed guidelines intended as a starting point to inform policies and programmes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Designing a Decontamination Solution for the Low-Earth-Orbit, Cryogenic SPHEREx Mission

To address the scientific goals of NASA’s astrophysics division, the JPL and Caltech’s SPHEREx mission conducts the first near-infrared all-sky spectral survey in low-earth-orbit using a passively-cooled, cryogenic telescope. Several unique water contamination issues arise due to the combination of cryogenic operation temperatures and the limited temperature control authority of passive cooling. Because water molecules have adsorption bands within the wavelengths of interest for SPHEREx’s survey, it is imperative that water contamination be controlled and minimized. In this work, a model is developed for the SPHEREx mission to predict the transport and accumulation of outgassed water onto sensitive payload components. The model utilizes the time dependent thermal profiles of the individual payload components, initial water content, and spacecraft geometry to calculate the time dependent water diffusion, transport, and adsorption. This model is subsequently used to predict water contamination risks and design decontamination solutions for each risk. Two major water contamination risks were predicted, water accumulation during cooldown and on cryogenic surfaces during the mission. The first risk occurs during the cooldown of the payload to cryogenic temperatures, predicting water accumulation on optical surfaces in excess of the allowable levels. To mitigate this accumulation, the temperature of the optical surfaces is controlled during cooldown through a combination of heaters and spacecraft pointing. The second risk is that over the course of the mission, is unavoidable water accumulation onto the payload thermal system’s cryogenic surfaces, possibly jeopardizing thermal performance and temperature stability, both of which are required for science success. To decontaminate any water that had collected onto cryogenic thermal system surfaces, a decontamination maneuver was designed. In this decontamination maneuver, cryogenic surfaces of the thermal system are warmed to a temperature where water will desorb by spacecraft pointing while still meeting all avoidance constraints, and thereby avoiding undue risk to the observatory hardware. Through application of the developed analytical model and inclusion of the decontamination maneuver in the mission design, SPHEREx can confidently demonstrate that it is able to decontaminate, at the start of and during the mission as needed to meet its end of life science performance requirements.

Soares, Carolos E.↗

Enabling the Direct Detection of Earth-Sized Exoplanets with the LBTI HOSTS Project: A Progress Report

NASA has funded a project called the Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems (HOSTS) to survey nearby solar type stars to determine the amount of warm zodiacal dust in their habitable zones. The goal is not only to determine the luminosity distribution function but also to know which individual stars have the least amount of zodiacal dust. It is important to have this information for future missions that directly image exoplanets as this dust is the main source of astrophysical noise for them. The HOSTS project utilizes the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI), which consists of two 8.4-m apertures separated by a 14.4-m baseline on Mt. Graham, Arizona. The LBTI operates in a nulling mode in the mid-infrared spectral window (8-13 micrometers), in which light from the two telescopes is coherently combined with a 180 degree phase shift between them, producing a dark fringe at the location of the target star. In doing so the starlight is greatly reduced, increasing the contrast, analogous to a coronagraph operating at shorter wavelengths. The LBTI is a unique instrument, having only three warm reflections before the starlight reaches cold mirrors, giving it the best photometric sensitivity of any interferometer operating in the mid-infrared. It also has a superb Adaptive Optics (AO) system giving it Strehl ratios greater than 98% at 10 micrometers. In 2014 into early 2015 LBTI was undergoing commissioning. The HOSTS. project team passed its Operational Readiness Review (ORR) in April 2015. The team recently published papers on the target sample, modeling of the nulled disk images, and initial results such as the detection of warm dust around eta Corvi. Recently a paper was published on the data pipeline and on-sky performance. An additional paper is in preparation on Beta Leo. We will discuss the scientific and programmatic context for the LBTI project, and we will report recent progress, new results, and plans for the science verification phase that started in February 2016, and for the survey.

Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Syst↗

Progress in developing a superconducting accelerator for efficient eBeam and X-ray production

The PIP-II Accelerator is an 800 MeV superconducting Linac in the injection chain of the Fermilab accelerator complex. The LLRF systems for the 125 cavities which include a few normal conducting cavities in the warm front-end section, use a variety of LLRF hardware components and sub-systems that are part of the timing and synchronization system. This includes a master oscillator and phase averaging reference line, a beam pattern generator to enable beam transfer between non-harmonic RF systems and beam loading compensation systems synchronized to a start of beam trigger. The timing signals are based on a 650 MHz clock with manchester encoded event information and data provided over optical fiber. The timing and synchronization systems and their performance parameters will be described here.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Timing and Synchronization in the LLRF systems of the Fermilab PIP-II Linac

The PIP-II Accelerator is an 800 MeV superconducting Linac in the injection chain of the Fermilab accelerator complex. The LLRF systems for the 125 cavities which include a few normal conducting cavities in the warm front-end section, use a variety of LLRF hardware components and sub-systems that are part of the timing and synchronization system. This includes a master oscillator and phase averaging reference line, a beam pattern generator to enable beam transfer between non-harmonic RF systems and beam loading compensation systems synchronized to a start of beam trigger. The timing signals are based on a 650 MHz clock with manchester encoded event information and data provided over optical fiber. The timing and synchronization systems and their performance parameters will be described here.

Varghese, Philip↗

Enceladus and Europa: How Does Hydrothermal Activity Begin at the Surface?

The question of how the surface hydrothermal activity (e.g., eruptive plumes and heat flow) is initiated can be addressed within the frame-work of our "Perrier Ocean" model. This model delivers the necessary heat and chemicals to support the heat flow and plumes observed by Cassini in Enceladus' South Polar Region. The model employs closed-loop circulation of water from a sub-surface ocean. The ocean is the main reservoir of heat and chemicals, including dissolved gases. As ocean water moves up toward the surface, pressure is re-duced and gases exsolve forming bubbles. This bub-bly mixture is less dense than the icy crust and the buoyant ocean-water mixture rises toward the surface. Near the surface, heat and chemicals, including some volatiles, are delivered to the chambers in which plumes form and also to shallow reservoirs that keep the surface ice "warm". (Plume operations, per se, are as described by Schmidt et al. and Postberg et al. and are adopted by us.) After transferring heat, the water cools, bubbles contract and dissolve, and the mixture is now relatively dense. It descends through cracks in the crust and returns to the ocean. Once the closed-loop circulation has started it is self-sustaining. Loss of water via the erupting plumes is relatively negligible compared to the amount needed to maintain the heat flow.We note that the activity described herein for the the "Perrier-Ocean" model could, a priori, apply to all small icy bodies that sheltered an interior ocean at some point in their history.

Enceladus↗

Hybrid Heat Pipes for Lunar and Martian Surface and High Heat Flux Space Applications

Novel hybrid wick heat pipes are developed to operate against gravity on planetary surfaces, operate in space carrying power over long distances and act as thermosyphons on the planetary surface for Lunar and Martian landers and rovers. These hybrid heat pipes will be capable of operating at the higher heat flux requirements expected in NASA's future spacecraft and on the next generation of polar rovers and equatorial landers. In addition, the sintered evaporator wicks mitigate the start-up problems in vertical gravity aided heat pipes because of large number of nucleation sites in wicks which will allow easy boiling initiation. ACT, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, and NASA Johnson Space Center, are working together on the Advanced Passive Thermal experiment (APTx) to test and validate the operation of a hybrid wick VCHP with warm reservoir and HiK"TM" plates in microgravity environment on the ISS.

Ababneh, Mohammed T.↗