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At least 145 records · Page 8

Application of Partial Least Squares Approaches to Pyroprocessing ER Data

Multivariate approaches show promise for application to process monitoring for safeguards of pyroprocessing. Past MPACT work explored the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to detect off-normal conditions in pyroprocessing electrorefiner (ER) data from in the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) known as the Scalable Pyrochemical Recycling testbed (SPyRe) ER. PCA, however, does not consider the output variables. In FY24, multivariate analysis was extended from PCA to Partial Least Squares (PLS) analysis. PLS maximizes the variance between both the input signals and output variables. In the case of this work, PLS was applied in two different manners: Predictive PLS and Discriminant PLS. Predictive PLS maximizes the covariance between the process variables of the ER and the measured U concentration from in-situ voltammetry. Discriminant PLS maximizes the covariance between the process variables and a set of training process “states” such as known off-normal conditions. By projecting into the latent variable space in PLS, the process variables can be regressed onto the outputs and predictions can be made for new data sets. In this work, by applying predictive PLS, a penalized non-linear PLS approach was able to make predictions of concentration based on test and training data and detect when operations were off-normal. However, the predictive PLS does not classify the signals to which off-normal operations are attributable. Discriminant PLS can be used to classify off-normal operations but is inadequate to properly classify specific off-normal classes like power supply faults when the Discriminant PLS model is only specifically trained to detect that off-normal class. When all faults are trained against the observation data, all three operational classes are accurately classified and distinguished. Thus, future application of latent variable techniques should not select any given method, but should use a mixture of PCA, Predictive PLS, and Discriminant PLS.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Analysis and Experimental Testing of a New Type of Variable Stiffness Magnetic Spring with a Linear Stroke Length

In this paper a new type of variable stiffness magnetic spring is proposed. The magnetic spring is composed of radially magnetized outer rotor magnets coupled with axially magnetized inner cylindrical magnets. It is shown that this magnet arrangement creates a highly linear stroke length. By rotating the inner magnetic rotor, the stiffness of the spring can be adjusted. The force as a function of stroke length and torque required to adjust the stiffness were computed using finite element analysis and then verified using an experimental test setup.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Characterizing the flux effect on the irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steels using machine learning

In-service exposure to high-energy neutrons embrittles reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels. An increase in the yield stress (Δσ y ) results in a corresponding increase in the brittle to ductile transition temperature (ΔT c ). Most existing models underpredict ΔT c at higher fluence following accelerated irradiations in test reactors. High fluence, up to 10 20 n/cm 2 in some cases, will be reached over extended RPV vessel operation of 80 years, or more, at low service flux. Embrittlement has been extensively studied in accelerated, higher flux test reaction irradiations. However, the use of test reactor data naturally raises the question of flux effects. Here, this study used a machine learning approach trained on a set of hardening data, covering a wide range of flux, fluence, and steel compositions to determine the interactive effects of both irradiation and material variables on Δσ y . The analysis included machine learning-based cross-plots of the variable dependence of Δσ y for six core steels (i.e., CM6, LC, LD, LG, LH, and LI), with controlled differences in their Cu and Ni contents. A primary objective is to evaluate an effective to actual fluence (Φt e /Φt) ratio, as a function of flux, fluence, and steel composition. This is information critical to properly use intermediate flux-high fluence data in calibrating a low flux-high fluence embrittlement model. The predicted Φt e /Φt is reasonably consistent with estimates previously derived from a physics-based solute recombination trap model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

XMM-Newton and TESS observations of the highly variable polar V496 UMa

We studied the temporal and spectral behavior of V496 UMa from the optical to the X-ray regimes. Methods. We used archival XMM-Newton and TESS observations obtained in 2017 and 2019, respectively, to perform a spectral and timing analysis of the highly variable magnetic CV. Results. The light curves of the TESS and XMM-Newton satellites reveal a double-humped pattern modulated with the periodicity of 91.058467 ± 0.00001 min. V496 UMa displays a two-pole accretion geometry in the high accretion state. X-ray spectra from these regions are composed of thermal plasma radiation and soft blackbody components with almost identical temperatures and a total accretion rate of $\dot{M}$ = 1.4(8) × 10 -11 M ⊙ yr -1 . The X-ray centers of the humps show longitudinal shifts of -18° and 4°, and shifts around photometric phase zero of -172° and -186°, for the main hump and second hump, respectively. The long-term ZTF light curves reveal high and low accretions states. Low-state ZTF and SDSS photometric data are consistent with an 0.8 M ⊙ white dwarf at 10 000 K and a main-sequence donor star with a spectral type of M5.0 at a Gaia determined distance of 758 pc. Conclusions. V496 UMa is a very bright polar in X-rays when it is in the high state. Due to its unusual geometric structure, mass accretion onto the second accretion pole is interrupted occasionally. This discontinuous behavior does not follow a certain pattern in time and has been observed so far only in the high state. The X-ray light curves display clear evidence of an accretion stream at the photometric phase of φ = 0.81, which does not show up in optical light curves. An accurate period was derived using the combined TESS and XMM-Newton data, which differs by 3.8 σ from published results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mechanical and Thermal Forcing for Upslope Flows and Cumulus Convection over the Sierras de Córdoba

Abstract The upslope flow processes affecting the vertical extent of orographic cumulus convection are examined using observations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Specifically, clear air returns from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) second-generation C-band scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) precipitation radar (CSAPR2) are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ridge-normal (i.e., up/downslope) flow components, which transport mass to the crest of Argentina’s Sierras de Córdoba and contribute to convective initiation. Data are compiled for the entire CACTI period (October–April), including days with clear skies, shallow cumuli, cumulus congestus, and deep convection. To examine shared variability among >70 000 radar scans, we use (i) a principal component analysis (PCA) to isolate modes of variability in the upslope flow and (ii) composite analysis based on convective outcomes, determined from GOES-16 satellite observations. These data are contextualized with observed surface sensible heat fluxes, thermodynamic profiles, and synoptic-scale analysis. Results indicate distinct thermally and mechanically forced upslope flow modes, modulated by diurnal heating and synoptic-scale variations, respectively. In some instances, there is a superposition of thermal and mechanical forcing, yielding either deeper or shallower upslope flow. The composite analyses based on satellite data show that successively deeper convective outcomes are associated with successively deeper upslope flow layers that more readily transport mass to the ridge crest in conjunction with lower lifting condensation levels, facilitating convective initiation. These results help to isolate the forcing mechanisms for orographic convection and thus provide a foundation for parameterizing orographic convective processes in coarse resolution models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production and Compressed Air Energy Storage from Variable Renewable Energy

Examines the performance and cost of pairing variable renewable energy (VRE) sources with compressed air energy storage and hydrogen production through PEM electrolysis. Sensitivities were performed on H2 cost, PEM electrolyzer capital cost, and hydrogen cavern capital cost. The analysis shows that the cost of VRE has the most impact on the overall cost results.

Teel, Troy↗

Generation and validation of comprehensive synthetic weather histories using auto-regressive moving-average models

As energy system design moves to more complex methods of optimization including machine learning there is a significant need for more weather data than is available. One method to solve this is using synthetic data models such as the auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model which has been frequently utilized to create such data. This paper looks at extending the ARMA algorithm to generate solar components through the use of clearsky detrending, maintaining vector relationships and by leveraging physical relationships. The method for the creation of entirely synthetic weather data files including key weather variables for energy system analysis is presented. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of energy system simulations utilizing both real and synthetic data is made using NREL’s System Advisor Model. Whilst good agreement is made for the solar variables, and other weather variables, ARMA methods often fail to capture the standard deviation and skew of annual weather distributions. Vector-ARMA is shown to maintain correlations between variables and thus generate data sets that perform similarly in energy system design. Here, it is finally shown that the ARMA method fails to preserve day-today correlations in weather variables and thus over-predicts optimal energy storage by 21% for a residential solar application.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Feedstock Supply Chain Analysis

Addressing the challenge of biomass feedstock variability that affects the optimization of processing and conversion processes, the project's goal is to maximize biorefinery economics by improving the process quality control of feedstock, which will lead to greater plant availability and predictable yields of high value biofuels and co-products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rotor blade imbalance fault detection for variable-speed marine current turbines via generator power signal analysis

Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbines extract renewable energy from oceanic environments. However, due to the harsh conditions that these turbines operate in, system performance naturally degrades over time. Thus, ensuring efficient condition-based maintenance is imperative towards guaranteeing reliable operation and reduced costs for marine hydrokinetic power. This work proposes a novel framework aimed at identifying and classifying the severity of rotor blade pitch imbalance faults experienced by marine current turbines (MCTs). In the framework, a Continuous Morlet Wavelet Transform (CMWT) is first utilized to acquire the wavelet coefficients encompassed within the 1P frequency range of the turbine's rotor shaft. From these coefficients, several statistical indices are tabulated into a six-dimensional feature space. Next, Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is employed on the resulting feature space for dimensionality reduction, and then the application of a K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) machine learning algorithm is utilized for fault detection and severity classification. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated using a high-fidelity MCT numerical simulation platform, where results demonstrate that the presence of a pitch imbalance fault can be accurately detected 100% of the time and correctly classified based upon severity more than 97% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of intraspecies diversity reveals a subset of highly variable plant immune receptors and predicts their binding sites

The evolution of recognition specificities by the immune system depends on the generation of receptor diversity and on connecting the binding of new antigens with the initiation of downstream signaling. In plant immunity, the innate Nucleotide-Binding Leucine-Rich Repeat (NLR) receptor family enables antigen binding and immune signaling. In this study, we surveyed the NLR complements of 62 ecotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana and 54 lines of Brachypodium distachyon and identified a limited number of NLR subfamilies that show high allelic diversity. We show that the predicted specificity-determining residues cluster on the surfaces of Leucine-Rich Repeat domains, but the locations of the clusters vary among NLR subfamilies. By comparing NLR phylogeny, allelic diversity, and known functions of the Arabidopsis NLRs, we formulate a hypothesis for the emergence of direct and indirect pathogen-sensing receptors and of the autoimmune NLRs. These findings reveal the recurring patterns of evolution of innate immunity and can inform NLR engineering efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling Extended-Term Simulation of Power Systems with High PV Penetration. Final Report

This is the final Technical Report for DOE-SETO Project Award # DE-EE0036461. The goal of this project is to advance the understanding of the grid impact of high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation by developing novel numerical methods to solve the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that define power systems. This will overcome the limitations of current software packages – namely that they only consider fast dynamics over brief time periods. The work presented in this final project report covers results over the entire period of the project. This includes results on model development, code development for the PST repository, datasets in the PST repository, algorithm development and results from variable time-step simulations, development and results from multirate simulations, and sensitivity analysis of key parameter in variable time-step methods. In addition, this report discusses project outreach activities to stakeholders, and a summary of project products. Also covered in this final report is the writing of two conference papers (one of which has already been accepted) and a journal paper. In addition, the updating of two inverter models (both grid forming and grid following) to be compatible with the latest version of PST software is discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data and Scripts Associated with the Manuscript “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids”

This data package is associated with the publication “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids” published in EGU Biogeochemistry (Laan et al. 2025). In this research, water column respiration (ERwc) data, surface water chemistry data, organic matter (OM) chemistry data, and publicly available geospatial data were used in analysis to evaluate the variability in ERwc at 47 sites across the Yakima River basin in Washington, USA. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package includes the data inputs, and outputs, and R scripts to reproduce all the analyses performed in the manuscript and create manuscript figures. The data package is comprised of three main folders (Code, Data, and Figures). The Code folder is comprised of four scripts and three analysis-specific subfolders that contain the R scripts to perform the analyses described in the publication and create publication figures. The Data folder is comprised of two “.csv” files and four subfolders that contain data input and output files. The Published_Data folder contains a readme that directs the user to download the appropriate files and add to this folder when using scripts. The Figures folder includes figures from the manuscript in “.pdf” and “.png” formats and a folder with intermediate figure files. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository which can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-RC2-SPS-ERwc. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A two-stage optical fusion framework for wildfire severity mapping across the conterminous United States

Accurate wildfire severity mapping (WSM) is essential for post-fire recovery planning, erosion risk assessment, ecosystem monitoring, and disaster risk reduction. Although Landsat and Sentinel optical imagery have been widely used for burn severity assessment, the added value of fusing multiple optical sensors has not been sufficiently quantified across diverse fire events, particularly since the launch of Landsat-9. This study evaluates whether multisensor optical fusion improves wildfire severity mapping relative to single-sensor baselines using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 imagery across 40 wildfire events in the conterminous United States. We tested a two-stage fusion framework that combines feature-level fusion with pixel-level dimensionality reduction. First, feature-level fused datasets were created through early fusion by combining standardized post-fire bands from each sensor into a single predictor stack. Both raw reflectance bands and pairwise spectral transforms were retained to capture within- and cross-sensor spectral interactions. Second, Linear Discriminant Analysis was applied to both single-sensor and fused datasets to produce comparable low-dimensional feature spaces. Six machine-learning classifiers were then used to benchmark model performance with repeated spatially buffered train–test splits. Results show that Landsat-9 was the strongest single-sensor baseline. Among the fusion strategies, Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 produced the most consistent improvement and reduced performance variability. Landscape-condition analysis further showed that this fusion was most beneficial in shrubland-dominated and high-terrain fires, where it achieved the highest overall mean accuracy and the fewest failures. In contrast, its benefits were less reliable in evergreen forests, mixed vegetation, and low- to moderate-elevation terrain. In operational settings, the Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 configuration offers a practical solution for post-fire recovery planning, erosion-risk assessment, watershed management, and ecological monitoring when field observations are available and timely satellite-based information is needed.

Landsat↗

$\bar{\nu}_\mu$ charged-current $\pi^0$ data release

Data release for the NOvA muon antineutrino charged-current (CC) pi^0 cross section presented in arXiv:2511.05807. The signal for this analysis is defined as muon antineutrino CC interactions in the fiducial volume of the NOvA near detector (a 2.7 m × 2.7 m × 9.0 m region) that produce at least one pi^0 in the final state emerging from the nucleus, within the phase space of muon momentum [0.5, 2.5) GeV/c and muon angle [0, 60) degree, as described in arXiv:2511.05807. The released zip file contains two files: NOvA_NumubarCCPi0_DataRelease.root README.txt The ROOT file includes the cross-section results as well as the statistical and systematic covariance matrices for each variable used in this analysis. The README provides a detailed description of the contents of the data release. Official Flux: The flux used in this analysis is available from the NOvA Public Docs: https://publicdocs.fnal.gov/cgi-bin/ShowDocument?docid=8. File structure --- The ROOT file contains the following TDirectories: pi0p - pi^0 momentum distributions pi0dir - pi^0 angular distributions muonp - muon momentum distributions muondir - muon angular distributions Q2 - reconstructed Q^2 distributions Wmass - reconstructed W_mass distributions Each directory contains three histograms: xsec (TH1D): Cross section result cov_stat (TH2D): Statistical covariance matrix cov_syst (TH2D): Systematic covariance matrix Usage notes: - xsec gives the measured differential cross section w.r.t. the corresponding variable. - cov_stat and cov_syst provide the full covariance matrices. - The bin definitions and kinematic phase spaces follow those used in arXiv:2511.05807. Citation --- If you use these data, please cite: NOvA Collaboration, arXiv:2511.05807.

Wu, Wanwei [Pittsburgh U.] (ORCID:0000000326327215↗