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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Demand-side solutions in the US building sector could achieve deep emissions reductions and avoid over $100 billion in power sector costs

Buildings are energy-intensive and a primary source of US end-use sector carbon emissions. Although building emissions today are 25% below their 2005 peak, far deeper reductions are needed to reach the US 2050 net-zero emissions goal. However, plausible decarbonization pathways that consider both buildings and their interactions with the power grid remain poorly understood. Here, we couple detailed modeling of building energy use and the grid to quantify building decarbonization potential and associated grid impacts. We find up to a 91% reduction in building CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 using a portfolio of building efficiency, demand flexibility, and electrification measures alongside rapid grid decarbonization. Building efficiency and flexibility could generate up to $107 billion in annual power system cost savings by 2050, offsetting over a third of the incremental cost of full grid decarbonization. Our results underscore multiple benefits of demand-side solutions for deep decarbonization of US buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid geothermal-wind integration in the US energy grid

Here, we combine US wind generation—a cheap yet intermittent source of electricity—with the latest geothermal resource estimates to understand the technoeconomic possibilities of pairing enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) with existing wind farms to develop a hybrid energy system. Using observed generation data from 583 wind farms, generation gaps are quantified and geographically paired with the latest EGS estimates. Results demonstrate that EGS potential within a 1 km 2 footprint can supplement wind generation at 56% of onshore wind farms. Each wind farm can be supplemented by EGSs when 10% of its surface-occupying footprint is available. The cost of EGSs at wind farms is lowest in the western US and southern Texas border and highest in the central US. While further experiments are warranted, a wind + EGS hybrid system offers an opportunity to increase power output from the same land footprint while maximizing the use of existing electrical infrastructure.

EGS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rye-soybean double-crop: planting method and N fertilization effects in the North Central US

Double-cropping winter rye cover crops (CC) with soybean in the North Central US could help with the global effort to sustainably intensify agriculture. Studies addressing the management of these systems are limited. Therefore, a field study was conducted from 2017 to 2019 in Central Iowa, US to evaluate winter rye CC biomass production, aboveground N accumulation, estimated economics, estimated within-field energy balance and estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under three N application rates (0, 60, 120 kg N ha –1 ) and three planting methods (pre- and post-harvest broadcast and post-harvest drilling). Averaged over N rates, all planting methods resulted in >5.0 Mg ha –1 year –1 rye aboveground biomass dry matter. Averaged over the 2-year study and compared with unfertilized treatments, applying 60 kg N ha –1 produced 1.1 Mg ha –1 more aboveground biomass (6.1 vs 5.0 Mg ha –1 ), accumulated 30 kg ha –1 more N in aboveground biomass (88 vs 58 kg N ha –1 ), and led to 20 GJ ha –1 more net energy. Biomass production was not significantly higher with 120 kg N ha –1 compared with the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. Even when accounting for an estimated 0.75 Mg ha –1 of above ground rye biomass left in the field after harvesting, more N was removed than applied at the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. The minimum rye prices over the 2-year study needed for double-cropping winter rye CC to be profitable (breakeven prices) averaged $117 and $104 Mg –1 for the 0 and 60 kg N ha –1 rates, which factors in estimated soybean yield reductions in 2019 compared with local averages but not off-site transportation. GHG emissions were estimated to increase approximately threefold between the unfertilized and 60 kg N ha –1 rates without considering bioenergy offsets. While environmental tradeoffs need further study, results suggest harvesting fertilized rye CC biomass before planting soybean is a promising practice for the North Central US to maximize total crop and net energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fungal Spore Seasons Advanced Across the US Over Two Decades of Climate Change

Abstract Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores—organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens—remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long‐term (2003–2022), large‐scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre‐processed the spore data by gap‐filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches—ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4–23 days) and public health (22 days, 6–38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate‐driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision‐making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grassland-to-cropland conversion increased soil, nutrient, and carbon losses in the US Midwest between 2008 and 2016

After decades of declining cropland area, the United States (US) experienced a reversal in land use/land cover change in recent years, with substantial grassland conversion to cropland in the US Midwest. Although previous studies estimated soil carbon (C) loss due to cropland expansion, other important environmental indicators, such as soil erosion and nutrient loss, remain largely unquantified. In this study, we simulated the environmental impacts from the conversion of grassland to corn and soybeans for 12 US Midwestern states using the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Between 2008 and 2016, over 2 Mha of grassland were converted to crop production in these states, with much less cropland concomitantly abandoned or retired from production. The net grassland-cropland conversion increased annual soil erosion by 7.9%, nitrogen (N) loss by 3.7%, and soil organic carbon loss by 5.6% relative to that of existing cropland, despite an associated increase in cropland area of only 2.5%. Notably, the above estimates represent the scenario of converting unmanaged grassland to tilled corn and soybeans, and impacts varied depending upon crop type and tillage regime. Corn and soybeans are dominant biofuel feedstocks, yet the grassland conversion and subsequent environmental impacts simulated in this study are likely not attributable solely to biofuel-driven land use change since other factors also contribute to corn and soybean prices and land use decisions. Nevertheless, our results suggest grassland conversion in the Upper Midwest has resulted in substantial degradation of soil quality, with implications for air and water quality as well. Additional conservation measures are likely necessary to counterbalance the impacts, particularly in areas with high rates of grassland conversion (e.g. the Dakotas, southern Iowa).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing local rooftop solar adoption inequity in the US

Abstract Residential rooftop solar is slated to play a significant role in the changing US electric grid in the coming decades. However, concerns have emerged that the benefits of rooftop solar deployment are inequitably distributed across demographic groups. Previous work has highlighted inequity in national solar adopter deployment and income trends. We leverage a dataset of US solar adopter household income estimates—unique in its size and resolution—to analyze differences in adoption equity at the local level and identify those conditions that yield more equitable solar adoption, with implications for policy strategies to reduce inequities in solar adoption. The solar inequities observed at the national and state levels also exist at more granular levels, but not uniformly so; some US census tracts exhibit less solar inequity than others. Some demographic, solar system, and market characteristics robustly lead to more equitable solar adoption. Our findings suggest that while solar adoption inequity is frequently attributed to the relatively high costs of solar adoption, costs may become less relevant as solar prices decline. Results also indicate that racial diversity and education levels affect solar adoption patterns at a local level. Finally, we find that solar adoption is more equitable in census tracts served by specific types of installers. Future research and policy can explore ways to leverage these findings to accelerate the transition to equitable solar adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shifts in hydroclimatology of US megaregions in response to climate change

Most of the population and economic growth in the United States occurs in megaregions as the clustered metropolitan areas, whereas climate change may amplify negative impacts on water and natural resources. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatology of fourteen US megaregions in response to climate change over the 21st century. Hydroclimatic projections were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model driven by three downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset to cover driest to wettest future conditions in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Shifts in the regional hydroclimatolgy and basin characteristics of US megaregions were represented as a combination of changes in the aridity and evaporative indices using the Budyko framework and Fu's equation. Changes in the climate types of US megaregions were estimated using the Fine Gaussian Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. The results indicate that Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco are more likely to experience less arid conditions with some shifts from Continental to Temperate climate type while the hydroclimatology of Houston may become drier with some shifts from Temperate to Continental climate type. Additionally, water yield is likely to decrease in Seattle. Change in the hydroclimatology of Denver and Phoenix highly depends on the selected climate model. However, the basin characteristics of Phoenix have the highest sensitivity to climate change. Overall, the hydroclimatic conditions of Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Denver, and Houston have the highest sensitivity to climate change. Understanding of future shifts in hydroclimatology of megaregions can help decision-makers to attenuate negative consequences by implementing appropriate adaptation strategies, particularly in the water-scare megaregions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hosting downscaled decision-relevant community data products in ESGF2-US

As regionally-relevant high-resolution Earth system data is increasingly relied upon across scientific, policy, and practitioner communities, there is an urgent need for coordinated and federated infrastructure to store, manage, standardize, and distribute decision-relevant community data products. Substantial effort is required to ensure that these products, which are often critical for regional impact assessments and decision-making, are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. The Earth System Grid Federation US project (ESGF2-US) is addressing this challenge by expanding its open-source, distributed platform to support the hosting and dissemination of downscaled Earth system datasets. This expansion includes aligning new downscaled datasets with developing community standards for metadata and file structure, consistent with existing ESGF archives. This includes ensuring CF-compliance, applying CMORization where appropriate, and developing tools to streamline user access. In this paper, we highlight the technical and coordination work required to bring downscaled data into ESGF2-US and aim to inform the broader Earth system data user community about the growing availability and utility of these curated resources.

ESGF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pharmacoepidemiology, Machine Learning and COVID-19: An intent-to-treat analysis of hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, and COVID-19 outcomes amongst hospitalized US Veterans

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) was proposed as an early therapy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after in vitro studies indicated possible benefit. Previous in vivo observational studies have presented conflicting results, though recent randomized clinical trials have reported no benefit from HCQ amongst hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In this work, we examined the effects of HCQ alone, and in combination with azithromycin, in a hospitalized COVID-19 positive, United States (US) Veteran population using a propensity score adjusted survival analysis with imputation of missing data. From March 1, 2020 through April 30, 2020, 64,055 US Veterans were tested for COVID-19 based on Veteran Affairs Healthcare Administration electronic health record data. Of the 7,193 positive cases, 2,809 were hospitalized, and 657 individuals were prescribed HCQ within the first 48-hours of hospitalization for the treatment of COVID-19. There was no apparent benefit associated with HCQ receipt, alone or in combination with azithromycin, and an increased risk of intubation when used in combination with azithromycin [Hazard Ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 1.55 (1.07, 2.24)]. In conclusion, we assessed the effectiveness of HCQ with or without azithromycin in treating patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using a national sample of the US Veteran population. Using rigorous study design and analytic methods to reduce confounding and bias, we found no evidence of a survival benefit from the administration of HCQ.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data, Photographs, Videos, and Information for the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest (US-NR1) AmeriFlux site

This data package contains data and information about the operation of the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux site (US-NR1) between Nov 1998 to the present (2020). This data archive supplements the primary 30-min data storage for the US-NR1 data (i.e., https://doi.org/10.17190/AMF/1246088) by providing the following: (i) five-minute statistics (means, variances, covariances) of all data measured by the data system between Nov 1998 and September 2020 in netCDF format, (ii) CSV data files saved within the memory of the CR23X data loggers (as well as an archive of the data logger programs), (iii) an archive of previous 30-min ASCII data versions of the US-NR1 AmeriFlux data and information related to each data release (a replica of what can be found at http://urquell.colorado.edu/data_ameriflux/), (iv) a web calendar (in HTML format) documenting activity at the site (a replica of http://urquell.colorado.edu/calendar/), (v) photos (over 15,000) and video taken at the site between years 2001 and present day (2020), and (vi) several auxiliary datasets, primary related to trees near the site, soil moisture and soil temperature, and subcanopy radiation data. The data package is setup so that the web calendar, photos, and electronic logbook can be easily accessed on a local computer using a web browser. The provided data files are in either netCDF, CSV, ASCII, or MATLAB format. To obtain a better understanding about the archive, please start by reading the PDF: README_ESS_DIVE_USNR1_readme_first.pdf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

AmeriFlux US-xCL NEON LBJ National Grassland (CLBJ)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xCL NEON LBJ National Grassland (CLBJ). Site Description - The LBJ Grasslands is 16,800 acres of land managed by the US Forest Service under the US Department of Agriculture. There is a rich legacy of land use, ranging back to the mid-19th century. Currently, LBJ Grasslands are used for recreation and hunting, livestock grazing, and fossil fuel extraction. Ongoing ecological monitoring is performed at the site, along with prescribed burning.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗
DOE OSTI2021

AmeriFlux US-NR3 Niwot Ridge Alpine (T-Van West)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NR3 Niwot Ridge Alpine (T-Van West). Site Description - Snow-scoured alpine tundra; Dry meadow vegetation; 3-m tower located 50 m W of US-NR4, 420 m SW of US-xNW, and 28 km west of Boulder, CO, USA. Nearby reliable daily precipitation data (NWT D1) can be found at: https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/63b912a406254df036e89c84a1b59230.

Knowles, John↗
DOE OSTI2021

AmeriFlux US-NR4 Niwot Ridge Alpine (T-Van East)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NR4 Niwot Ridge Alpine (T-Van East). Site Description - Snow-scoured alpine tundra; Fellfield vegetation; 3-m tower located 50 m E of US-NR3, 387 m SW of US-xNW, and 28 km west of Boulder, CO, USA. Reliable nearby daily precipitation data (NWT D1) can be found at: https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/63b912a406254df036e89c84a1b59230.

Knowles, John↗
DOE OSTI2021

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-CF1 CAF-LTAR Cook East

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CF1 CAF-LTAR Cook East. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-CF1 CAF-LTAR Cook East produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - CF1 has operated since May 2017 at the R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm outside of Pullman, Washington, and monitors the no-till side of a paired-catchment study that is part of the Longterm Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) site common experiment. CF1 is located in “Cook East,” a field that has been in no-till management since 1998, and represents the Alternative treatment of the LTAR common experiment. It is paired with the CF2 tower location in “Cook West,” which has been in conventional tillage since prior to 1998 and represents the Prevalent treatments of the common experiment. Cook Agronomy Farm is in the high precipitation agroecological zone of the Columbia Plateau’s dryland cropping region. Crop rotations are wheat-based and include winter wheat, spring wheat, chickpea, spring canola, and winter peas. Wheat is the principal cash crop, with other crops grown in rotation for diversity, nutrient, and pest management. Soils are predominantly silt loam texture Mollisols in the Palouse, Thatuna, Naff soil series. The CF1 tower replaced US-RC1, which operated 2012-2016 in a neighboring field that was also in no-till management since 1998. CF1 and RC1 have distinct footprints, aspects, and soil series compositions.

Phillips, Claire L.↗