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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Nasa Space Flight Instruments: Cost Time Trends

Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)

Mrozinksi, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2019

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region’s large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

Bryant D Loomis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone Trends (1990 to 2022): A Re-evaluation Based on SHADOZ and IAGOS Profiles and TOMS/OMI Columns

Changes in tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) are of importance because this region spans roughly a third of the Earth and portions of it are experiencing variability in trends of ozone precursors (CO, NO x , CH 4 and nonmethane hydrocarbons) associated with economic growth and fires. In addition to ozone changes affecting radiative forcing, tropical ozone is an important source of the OH radical and thus, the oxidizing capacity of the planet (Thompson, 1992). Recent studies examining TTO trends satellite and in-situ observations over the past ~25 years include: Thompson et al., JGR, 2021; Gaudel et al., ACP, 2023; Stauffer et al., ACP, 2023. The results show considerable regional and seasonal variability in TTO trends and sensitivity to data selection, frequency, and statistical method used. The satellite data vary most widely in method, time period and reliability. Here we revisit trends for the 1990-2022 period with the best-characterized buv-based satellite products that span that period (derived from TOMS and OMI, Ziemke et al., 2019). The satellite-based trends are compared to trends based on in-situ data from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network (1998-2022), measurements from selected pre-SHADOZ and IAGOS commercial aircraft data (Gaudel et al., 2023). Among sensitivities examined are the dependence of ozone trends on start and end years, impacts of ENSO events and the COVID-19 perturbation to emissions. Two statistical methods are used, quantile regression (QR) and multiple linear regression (MLR). Trends of total TTO, ozone segments in the boundary layer (to ~700 hPa), and free troposphere (700-300 hPa) are compared.

ozone, OMI, tropospheric ozone, SHADOZ↗
DOE OSTI2013

Inconsistencies between Long-Term Trends in Storminess Derived from the 20CR Reanalysis and Observations

Global atmospheric reanalyses have become a common tool for both validation of climate models and diagnostic studies, such as assessing climate variability and long-term trends. Currently, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which assimilates only surface pressure reports, sea ice, and sea surface temperature distributions, represents the longest global reanalysis dataset available covering the period from 1871 to the present. Currently the 20CR dataset is extensively used for the assessment of climate variability and trends. In this work, the authors compare the variability and long-term trends in northeast Atlantic storminess derived from 20CR and from observations. A well-established storm index derived from pressure observations over a relatively densely monitored marine area is used. It is believed that both variability and long-term trends derived from 20CR and from observations are inconsistent. Specifically, both time series show opposing trends during the first half of the twentieth century: both storm indices share a similar behavior only for the more recent periods. While the variability and long-term trend derived from the observations are supported by a number of independent data and analyses, the behavior shown by 20CR is quite different, indicating substantial inhomogeneities in the reanalysis, most likely caused by the increasing number of observations assimilated into 20CR over time. The latter makes 20CR likely unsuitable for the identification of trends in storminess in the earlier part of the record, at least over the northeast Atlantic. The results imply and reconfirm previous findings that care is needed in general when global reanalyses are used to assess long-term changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

surface energy↗
NASA NTRS2016

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

simulations↗
NASA NTRS2019

Trends and Seasonal Variability of Atmospheric NO2 and HNO3 Concentrations Across Three Major African Biomes Inferred from Long-Term Series of Ground-Based and Satellite Measurements

In the framework of the INDAAF (International Network to study Deposition and Atmospheric chemistry in AFrica) programme, part of the ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure), European Research Infrastructure for the long-term observation of Aerosol, Cloud, and Trace gases, this paper aims to study trends and seasonal variability of surface atmospheric NO2 and HNO3 concentrations, and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) NO2 over 6 sites in tropical Africa. Sites are located in west and central Africa to represent the major African biomes: dry savanna (Banizoumbou, Niger and Katibougou, Mali), wet savanna (Djougou, Benin and Lamto, Côte d’Ivoire) and forest (Bomassa, Republic of Congo and Zoétélé, Cameroon). Ground-based NO2 and HNO3 concentrations were obtained over the period 1998–2015 using INDAAF passive samplers at a monthly basis, and NO2 Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) from OMI for a 1-degree grid cell around each sites were obtained from 2005 to 2015. Mean annual NO2 concentrations ranged from 2.3 plus or minus 1.2 to 0.9 plus or minus 0.4 parts per billion (ppb) from dry savannas to forests, representing a north-south gradient. In dry savannas, we observe two concentration peaks of NO2 appearing at the beginning and the end of the wet season both for ground-based and satellite measurements, whereas at wet savannas and forest sites, NO2 concentrations are highest in the dry season. The seasonality of surface NO2 observations provide further evidence for a large role of microbial soil NOx emissions in dry savannas and of biomass burning NOx emissions in wet savanna and forest sites. Mean annual HNO3 concentrations ranged from 0.4 to 0.5 ppb in dry and wet savannas to 0.2 to 0.3 ppb in forest. In dry ecosystems, higher HNO3 concentrations are measured in the early wet season, consistent with NO2 results. The analysis of a long-term dataset of surface O3 concentrations indicates that HNO3 production can mainly be explained by the photo-oxidation of NOx. Mann-Kendall and Seasonal Kendall statistical tests showed that NO2 surface concentrations have a significant decreasing seasonal and annual trends at multiple sites (p-value less than 0.05) ranging from -2.96 percent per year (at Zoétélé) to -0.64 percent per year (at Banizoumbou). HNO3 results indicate no trends except at Bomassa (1.07 percent per year). The decreasing NO2 ground-based concentration trends observed in wet savannas sites are correlated with OMI NO2 decreasing trends at these sites. Trends obtained for NO2 concentrations in wet savanna and forest ecosystems are consistent with trends of NOₓ biomass burning emissions.

Trends↗
NASA NTRS2019

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry transport model (CTM) simulations integrated with MERRA2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past 4 decades. The expected increase or recovery trend is obtained from the differences between the Baseline simulation and one with identical meteorology and fixed 1995 ODS levels. The differences show that vortex-averaged column O3 has the greatest sensitivity to ODS change from 1-20 Sep. The observed vortex-averaged column O3 during this period produces a trend consistent with the expected recovery attributable to ODS decline. Trends from dates after 20 Sep have smaller sensitivity to ODS decline and are more uncertain due to transport variability. Simulations show that the greatest decrease in O3 loss (i.e., recovery) occurs inside the vortex near the edge. The polar cap metrics have vortex size-dependent bias and do not consistently sample this region. Because the 60-90oS 220 DU O3 mass deficit (OMD) metric does not sample the edge region, its trend is lower than the expected trend; this is improved by area weighting. The 250 DU OMD metric samples more of the edge region, which increases its trend. Approximately 25% of the September Antarctic O3 increase is due to higher O3 levels in June prior to winter depletion.

Antarctic ozone↗
NASA NTRS2021

Moisture and Temperature Influences on Nonlinear Vegetation Trends in Serengeti National Park

While long-term vegetation greening trends have appeared across large land areas over the late 20th century, uncertainty remains in identifying and attributing finer-scale vegetation changes and trends, particularly across protected areas. Serengeti National Park (SNP) is a critical East African protected area, where seasonal vegetation cycles support vast populations of grazing herbivores and a host of ecosystem dynamics. Previous work has shown how non-climate drivers (e.g. land use) shape the SNP ecosystem, but it is still unclear to what extent changing climate conditions influence SNP vegetation, particularly at finer spatial and temporal scales. We fill this research gap by evaluating long-term (1982–2016) changes in SNP leaf area index (LAI) in relation to both temperature and moisture availability using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Principal Component Analysis with regression techniques. We find that SNP LAI trends are nonlinear, display high sub-seasonal variation, and are influenced by lagged changes in both moisture and temperature variables and their interactions. LAI during the long rains (e.g. March) exhibits a greening-to-browning trend reversal starting in the early 2000s, partly due to antecedent precipitation declines. In contrast, LAI during the short rains (e.g. November, December) displays browning-to-greening alongside increasing moisture availability. Rising temperature trends also have important, secondary interactions with moisture variables to shape these SNP vegetation trends. Our findings show complex vegetation-climate interactions occurring at important temporal and spatial scales of the SNP, and our rigorous statistical approaches detect these complex climate-vegetation trends and interactions, while guarding against spurious vegetation signals.

Moisture↗
DOE OSTI2015

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r{sup 2}=0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r{sup 2}=0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and planning target volume margins. eNAL could largely compensate time trends with minor prolongation of fraction time.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contrasting Trends and Drivers of Global Surface and Canopy Urban Heat Islands

A comprehensive comparison of the trends and drivers of global surface and canopy urban heat islands (termed / s and / c trends, respectively) is critical for better designing urban heat mitigation strategies. However, such a global comparison remains largely absent. Using spatially continuous land surface temperatures and surface air temperatures (2003–2020), here we find that the magnitude of the global mean / s trend (0.19 ± 0.006°C/decade, mean ± SE) for 5,643 cities worldwide is nearly six-times the corresponding / c trend (0.03 ± 0.002°C/decade) during the day, while the former (0.06 ± 0.004°C/decade) is double the latter (0.03 ± 0.002°C/decade) at night. Variable importance scores indicate that global daytime / s trend is slightly more controlled by surface property, while background climate plays a more dominant role in regulating global daytime / c trend. At night, both global / s and / c trends are mainly controlled by background climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Are GRACE-era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven by Anthropogenic Climate Change?

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. The findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The electrification of energy: Long-term trends and opportunities

Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported unidirectionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bidirectionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored artificial agential control. These trends point toward a future in which energy is not costly, scarce, or inefficiently deployed but instead is affordable, abundant, and efficiently deployed; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to humanity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

ENSO-Related Precipitation and Its Statistical Relationship with the Walker Circulation Trend in CMIP5 AMIP Models

Observational evidence shows that the Walker circulation (WC) in the tropical Pacific has strengthened in recent decades. In this study, we examine the WC trend for 1979–2005 and its relationship with the precipitation associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the sea surface temperature (SST)-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. All of the 29 models show a strengthening of the WC trend in response to an increase in the SST zonal gradient along the equator. Despite the same SST-constrained AMIP simulations, however, a large diversity is found among the CMIP5 climate models in the magnitude of the WC trend. The relationship between the WC trend and precipitation anomalies (PRCPAs) associated with ENSO (ENSO-related PRCPAs) shows that the longitudinal position of the ENSO-related PRCPAs in the western tropical Pacific is closely related to the magnitude of the WC trend. Specifically, it is found that the strengthening of the WC trend is large (small) in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations in which the ENSO-related PRCPAs are located relatively westward (eastward) in the western tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the zonal shift of the ENSO-related precipitation in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with the climatological mean precipitation in the tropical Pacific, could play an important role in modifying the WC trend in the CMIP5 climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of the Structural–Stratigraphic and Reservoir Controls on the Occurrence of Gas Hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, Alaska North Slope

One of the most studied permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations in Arctic Alaska is the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study provides a detailed re-examination of the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend with a focus on the gas hydrate accumulation in the western part of the Prudhoe Bay Unit. This integrated analysis of downhole well log data and published geophysical data has provided new insight on structural, stratigraphic, and reservoir controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend. This study revealed the relatively complex nature of the gas hydrate occurrences in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend, with gas hydrates present in a series of coarsening upward, laterally pervasive, mostly fine-grained sand beds exhibiting high gas hydrate saturations. Most of the gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend are laterally segmented into distinct northwest- to southeast-trending fault blocks, occur in a combination of structural–stratigraphic traps, and are only partially hydrate filled with distinct down-dip water contacts. These findings suggest that the traditional parts of a petroleum system (i.e., reservoir, gas source, gas migration, and geologic timing of the system formation) also control the occurrence of gas hydrates in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Mineral exploration and fracture trends in Utah and Nevada, by ERTS-1 imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Major structural trends have been compiled on five separate maps, at a scale of 1:1,000,000, of Utah and Nevada from ERTS-1 imagery. An arbitrary length of ten kilometers has been chosen as a minimum length of the trends. The selection is based upon: (1) obvious displacement of structures; (2) continuity or persistence of trends across structures; (3) line-up of outcrop patterns, drainage, erosional features or vegetation; and (4) near-linear trends. Several recognizable trend directions have noted, viz., N 10-15 deg W, N 35 deg W, N 80 deg W, N 30 deg E, and E-W. More than 1500 structural trends have been identified, some of which are mineralized and extend into pediment or shallow alluvial cover. Those fracture trends that exhibit mineralization in exposed bedrock will be assayed for mercury content with a soil-gas analyzer and similar collection will be done over alluvial posture blankets by the same technique with the hope of discovering blind mineralized zones that are not exposed on the surface.

Jensen, M. L.↗