Results for “Time Series Data” — Page 8

DOE OSTI2020

Cloud Atlas: Unraveling the Vertical Cloud Structure with the Time-series Spectrophotometry of an Unusually Red Brown Dwarf

Rotational modulations of emission spectra in brown dwarf and exoplanet atmospheres show that clouds are often distributed non-uniformly in these ultracool atmospheres. The spatial heterogeneity in cloud distribution demonstrates the impact of atmospheric dynamics on cloud formation and evolution. In this study, we update the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) time-series data analysis of the previously reported rotational modulations of WISEP J004701+680352—an unusually red late-L brown dwarf with a spectrum similar to that of the directly imaged planet HR 8799e. We construct a self-consistent spatially heterogeneous cloud model to explain the HST and the Spitzer time-series observations, as well as the time-averaged spectra of WISE 0047. Additionally, in the heterogeneous cloud model, a cloud thickness variation of around one pressure scale height explains the wavelength dependence in the HST near-IR spectral variability. By including disequilibrium CO/CH 4 chemistry, our models also reproduce the redder $J-{K}_{{\rm{s}}}$ color of WISE 0047 compared to that of field brown dwarfs. We discuss the impact of vertical cloud structure on atmospheric profile and estimate the minimum eddy diffusivity coefficient for other objects with redder colors. Our data analysis and forward modeling results demonstrate that time-series spectrophotometry with a broad wavelength coverage is a powerful tool for constraining heterogeneous atmospheric structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

sdt (Solar Data Tools) [SWR-25-130]

Solar Data Tools (sdt) is an open-source Python library for analyzing PV power (and irradiance) time-series data. It was developed to enable analysis of unlabeled PV data, i.e. with no model, no meteorological data, and no performance index required, by taking a statistical signal processing approach in the algorithms used in the package’s main data processing pipeline. Solar Data Tools empowers PV system fleet owners or operators to analyze system performance a hundred times faster even when they only have access to the most basic data stream—power output of the system.

Meyers-Im, Bennet [National Laboratory of the Rock↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online real-time learning of dynamical systems from noisy streaming data

Abstract Recent advancements in sensing and communication facilitate obtaining high-frequency real-time data from various physical systems like power networks, climate systems, biological networks, etc. However, since the data are recorded by physical sensors, it is natural that the obtained data is corrupted by measurement noise. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for online real-time learning of dynamical systems from noisy time-series data, which employs the Robust Koopman operator framework to mitigate the effect of measurement noise. The proposed algorithm has three main advantages: (a) it allows for online real-time monitoring of a dynamical system; (b) it obtains a linear representation of the underlying dynamical system, thus enabling the user to use linear systems theory for analysis and control of the system; (c) it is computationally fast and less intensive than the popular extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. We illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm by applying it to identify the Van der Pol oscillator, the chaotic attractor of the Henon map, the IEEE 68 bus system, and a ring network of Van der Pol oscillators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Drought index using micrometeorological data from Embrapa weather station at Adolpho Ducke Reserve in Manaus, Brazil

This dataset includes daily resolution time series data including precipitation, minimum and maximum daily air temperature, and air relative humidity downloaded from the Embrapa InfoClima portal (https://www.cnpaf.embrapa.br/infoclima/), with data for the Adolpho Ducke Reserve climatological station in Manaus, Brazil, for the period of January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2016. Using this precipitation record, a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated and added to the dataset, using daily resolution for 180 day intervals and with 20 years for calibration (1980-1999) and adopting a gamma distribution. These data were applied as a proxy for analyzes of precipitation and SPI for the Manaus ZF2 Research station, located approximately 50 Km North of the Adolpho Ducke Reserve. Data are included in a .csv file, and the text file Drought-Indices-Embrapa-Ducke_met_spi_headers.txt provides descriptions of the data file headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long term predictions of coal fired power plant data using evolved recurrent neural networks

Abstract This work presents an investigation into the ability of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to provide long term predictions of time series data generated by coal fired power plants. While there are numerous studies which have used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict coal plant parameters, to the authors’ knowledge these have almost entirely been restricted to predicting values at the next time step, and not farther into the future. Using a novel neuro-evolution strategy called Evolutionary eXploration of Augmenting Memory Models (EXAMM), we evolved RNNs with advanced memory cells to predict per-minute plant parameters and per-hour boiler parameters up to 8 hours into the future. These data sets were challenging prediction tasks as they involve spiking behavior in the parameters being predicted. While the evolved RNNs were able to successfully predict the spikes in the hourly data they did not perform very well in accurately predicting their severity. The per-minute data proved even more challenging as medium range predictions miscalculated the beginning and ending of spikes, and longer range predictions reverted to long term trends and ignored the spikes entirely. We hope this initial study will motivate further study into this highly challenging prediction problem. The use of fuel properties data generated by a new Coal Tracker Optimization (CTO) program was also investigated and this work shows that their use improved predictive ability of the evolved RNNs.

Automation & Control Systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reliable machine prognostic health management in the presence of missing data

Prognostics and health management enables the prediction of future degradation and remaining useful life (RUL) for in-service systems based on historical and contemporary data, showing promise for many practical applications. One major challenge for prognostics is the common occurrence of missing values in time-series data, often caused by disruptions in sensor communication or hardware/software failures. Another major concern is that the sufficient prior knowledge of critical component degradation with a clear failure threshold is often not readily available in practice. These issues can significantly hinder the application of advanced signal and data analysis methods and consequently degrade the health management performance. In this article, we propose a novel data-driven framework that is capable of providing accurate and reliable predictions of degradation and RUL. In this approach, one-hot health state indicators are appended to the historical time series so that the model learns end-of-life automatically. A modified gate recurrent unit based variational autoencoder is employed in generative adversarial networks to model the temporal irregularity of the incomplete time series. Furthermore, experiments on multivariate time-series datasets collected from real-world aeroengines verify that significant performance improvement can be achieved using the proposed model for robust long-term prognostics.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Highlights of Discoveries for δ Scuti Variable Stars from the Kepler Era

The NASA Kepler and follow-on K2 mission (2009–2018) left a legacy of data and discoveries, finding thousands of exoplanets, and also obtaining high-precision long time-series data for hundreds of thousands of stars, including many types of pulsating variables. Here we highlight a few of the ongoing discoveries from Kepler data on δ Scuti pulsating variables, which are core hydrogen-burning stars of about twice the mass of the Sun. We discuss many unsolved problems surrounding the properties of the variability in these stars, and the progress enabled by Kepler data in using pulsations to infer their interior structure, a field of research known as asteroseismology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Near real-time streaming analysis of big fusion data

Experiments on fusion plasmas produce high-dimensional data time series with ever-increasing magnitude and velocity, but turn-around times for analysis of this data have not kept up. For example, many data analysis tasks are often performed in a manual, ad-hoc manner some time after an experiment. In this article, we introduce the Delta framework that facilitates near real-time streaming analysis of big and fast fusion data. By streaming measurement data from fusion experiments to a high-performance compute center, Delta allows computationally expensive data analysis tasks to be performed in between plasma pulses. This article describes the modular and expandable software architecture of Delta and presents performance benchmarks of individual components as well as of an example workflow. Focusing on a streaming analysis workflow where electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEi) data is measured at KSTAR on the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center's (NERSC's) supercomputer we routinely observe data transfer rates of about 4 Gigabit per second. In NERSC, a demanding turbulence analysis workflow effectively utilizes multiple nodes and graphical processing units and executes them in under 5 min. We further discuss how Delta uses modern database systems and container orchestration services to provide web-based real-time data visualization. For the case of ECEi data we demonstrate how data visualizations can be augmented with outputs from machine learning models. Here, by providing session leaders and physics operators, results of higher-order data analysis using live visualizations may make more informed decisions on how to configure the machine for the next shot.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated analysis of unlabeled PV data with Solar Data Tools software: Overview and feature updates

Distributed rooftop PV systems: ubiquitous, yet commonly have unlabeled data Difficult or impossible to form a performance index We developed Solar Data Tools (SDT), an open-source Python library for analyzing PV power (and irradiance) time-series data SDT enables analysis of unlabeled PV data—no model, no meteorological data, no performance index required Takes a statistical signal processing approach Data processing steps are largely pre-defined and automatic regardless of system type—from utility tracking systems to multi-pitch rooftop systems

Meyers-Im, Bennet E↗

DOE OSTI2021

ARM Data for Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from SGP Part II (ExINP-SGP II) Gas Adsorption Analyzer

Knowledge of airborne particulate matter (PM), especially the particles that have supermicron diameters, is key for understanding ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Supported by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, we sampled PM and surface soil materials at the Southern Great Plains observatory (SGP; 36° 36′ 18″ N, 97° 29′ 6″ W) to systematically compare the INP abundance and ice nucleation efficiency of different SGP samples (i.e., airborne versus surface materials). The field campaign, named Examing INP from SGP II (ExINP-SGP II), was conducted from 20 January to 20 April, 2021. Our data analysis products include (1) physical surface sorption characterization data (i.e., BET, pore volume) of two sets of samples -- SGP Soil and USDA, (2) X-ray diffraction spectra for the same two samples, (3) immersion freezing assay-based ice nucleation active mass density data as a function of freezing temperature for both ambient and surface samples, and (4) time-series data of ambient meteorological conditions, concentration particle counter-derived aerosol particle concentration, and aerosol particle sizer measurement during ExINP-SGP II.

3Flex,BET specific surface area and pore volume, A↗

DOE OSTI2021

ARM Data for Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from SGP Part II (ExINP-SGP II) X-Ray Diffraction

Knowledge of airborne particulate matter (PM), especially the particles that have supermicron diameters, is key for understanding ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Supported by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, we sampled PM and surface soil materials at the Southern Great Plains observatory (SGP; 36° 36′ 18″ N, 97° 29′ 6″ W) to systematically compare the INP abundance and ice nucleation efficiency of different SGP samples (i.e., airborne versus surface materials). The field campaign, named Examing INP from SGP II (ExINP-SGP II), was conducted from 20 January to 20 April, 2021. Our data analysis products include (1) physical surface sorption characterization data (i.e., BET, pore volume) of two sets of samples -- SGP Soil and USDA, (2) X-ray diffraction spectra for the same two samples, (3) immersion freezing assay-based ice nucleation active mass density data as a function of freezing temperature for both ambient and surface samples, and (4) time-series data of ambient meteorological conditions, concentration particle counter-derived aerosol particle concentration, and aerosol particle sizer measurement during ExINP-SGP II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

ARM Data for Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from SGP Part II (ExINP-SGP II) Cryogenic Refrigerator Applied to Freezing Test

Knowledge of airborne particulate matter (PM), especially the particles that have supermicron diameters, is key for understanding ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Supported by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, we sampled PM and surface soil materials at the Southern Great Plains observatory (SGP; 36° 36′ 18″ N, 97° 29′ 6″ W) to systematically compare the INP abundance and ice nucleation efficiency of different SGP samples (i.e., airborne versus surface materials). The field campaign, named Examing INP from SGP II (ExINP-SGP II), was conducted from 20 January to 20 April, 2021. Our data analysis products include (1) physical surface sorption characterization data (i.e., BET, pore volume) of two sets of samples -- SGP Soil and USDA, (2) X-ray diffraction spectra for the same two samples, (3) immersion freezing assay-based ice nucleation active mass density data as a function of freezing temperature for both ambient and surface samples, and (4) time-series data of ambient meteorological conditions, concentration particle counter-derived aerosol particle concentration, and aerosol particle sizer measurement during ExINP-SGP II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

ARM Data for Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from SGP Part II (ExINP-SGP II) Aerodynamic Particle Sizer, Condensation Particle Counter, and Meteorological Instrument Data Analysis

Knowledge of airborne particulate matter (PM), especially the particles that have supermicron diameters, is key for understanding ice-nucleating particles (INPs). Supported by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, we sampled PM and surface soil materials at the Southern Great Plains observatory (SGP; 36° 36′ 18″ N, 97° 29′ 6″ W) to systematically compare the INP abundance and ice nucleation efficiency of different SGP samples (i.e., airborne versus surface materials). The field campaign, named Examing INP from SGP II (ExINP-SGP II), was conducted from 20 January to 20 April, 2021. Our data analysis products include (1) physical surface sorption characterization data (i.e., BET, pore volume) of two sets of samples -- SGP Soil and USDA, (2) X-ray diffraction spectra for the same two samples, (3) immersion freezing assay-based ice nucleation active mass density data as a function of freezing temperature for both ambient and surface samples, and (4) time-series data of ambient meteorological conditions, concentration particle counter-derived aerosol particle concentration, and aerosol particle sizer measurement during ExINP-SGP II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

watchr-core

Watchr is a Java library that processes time-series data and generates HTML graphs. It is primarily used to track the performance of subroutines over time. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-7299 O

Ridgway, Elliott↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning for Gearbox Fault Prediction by Using Both Scada and Modeled Data

This presentation outlines the work in the paper titled "Prognostics of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data" published by the PHM Society and presented at its 2020 annual conference. It is accessible at https://papers.phmsociety.org/index.php/phmconf/article/download/1292/862. The technical work is on machine learning approaches for prognostics for gearbox faults. The methodology combines SCADA time series data and physics domain modeling data, derived from the models developed by the NREL team, as inputs to machine learning models to predict gearbox bearing failures with one month lead time. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score, and AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve). Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision, and F1 score, and AUC is about 33%, and 12%, and 6% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗