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A Human-in-the Loop Evaluation of a Coordinated Arrival Departure Scheduling Operations for Managing Departure Delays at LaGuardia Airport

LaGuardia (LGA) departure delay was identified by the stakeholders and subject matter experts as a significant bottleneck in the New York metropolitan area. Departure delay at LGA is primarily due to dependency between LGA's arrival and departure runways: LGA departures cannot begin takeoff until arrivals have cleared the runway intersection. If one-in one-out operations are not maintained and a significant arrival-to-departure imbalance occurs, the departure backup can persist through the rest of the day. At NASA Ames Research Center, a solution called "Departure-sensitive Arrival Spacing" (DSAS) was developed to maximize the departure throughput without creating significant delays in the arrival traffic. The concept leverages a Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) operations that create and manage the arrival schedule to the runway threshold and added an interface enhancement to the traffic manager's timeline to provide the ability to manually adjust inter-arrival spacing to build precise gaps for multiple departures between arrivals. A more complete solution would include a TSS algorithm enhancement that could automatically build these multi-departure gaps. With this set of capabilities, inter-arrival spacing could be controlled for optimal departure throughput. The concept was prototyped in a human-in-the- loop (HITL) simulation environment so that operational requirements such as coordination procedures, timing and magnitude of TSS schedule adjustments, and display features for Tower, TRACON and Traffic Management Unit could be determined. A HITL simulation was conducted in August 2014 to evaluate the concept in terms of feasibility, controller workload impact, and potential benefits. Three conditions were tested, namely a Baseline condition without scheduling, TSS condition that schedules the arrivals to the runway threshold, and TSS+DSAS condition that adjusts the arrival schedule to maximize the departure throughput. The results showed that during high arrival demand period, departure throughput could be incrementally increased under TSS and TSS+DSAS conditions without compromising the arrival throughput. The concept, operational procedures, and summary results were originally published in ATM20151 but detailed results were omitted. This paper expands on the earlier paper to provide the detailed results on throughput, conformance, safety, flight time/distance, etc. that provide extra insights into the feasibility and the potential benefits on the concept.

trajectory-based operations↗

Status of the NEXT Long-Duration Test After 23,300 Hours of Operation

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art in ion propulsion to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities at a low total development cost. As part of a comprehensive thruster service life assessment utilizing both testing and analyses, a Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005, to verify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the anticipated throughput requirement of 300 kg per thruster from mission analyses. The LDT is being conducted with a modified, flight-representative NEXT engineering model ion thruster, designated EM3. As of July 2009, the thruster has accumulated 23,300 h of operation with extensive durations at the following input powers: 6.9, 4.7, 1.1, and 0.5 kW. The thruster has processed 427 kg of xenon surpassing the NSTAR propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare ion thruster and approaching the NEXT development qualification throughput goal. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 16.0 10(exp 6) N/s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. Thruster performance tests are conducted periodically over the entire NEXT throttle table with input power ranging 0.5 to 6.9 kW. Thruster performance parameters including thrust, input power, specific impulse, and thruster efficiency have been nominal with little variation to date. The NSTAR first-failure mode, accelerator aperture erosion leading to electron backstreaming, has been mitigated in the NEXT design. The severe NSTAR discharge cathode assembly erosion has been mitigated by a graphite keeper in the NEXT thruster. Tracking of the NEXT first failure mode, charge-exchange ion impingement on the accelerator grid causing hexagonal groove erosion, is consistent with model predictions and indicates thruster life greater than or equal to 750 kg throughput. This paper presents the status, performance data, and wear characteristics of the NEXT LDT to date.

Herman, Daniel A.↗

NEXT Long-Duration Test Neutralizer Performance and Erosion Characteristics

The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced capabilities at a low total development cost. A Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005, to verify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the anticipated throughput requirement of 300 kg per thruster based on mission analyses. As of September 2, 2009, the thruster has accumulated 24,400 hr of operation with extensive durations at the following input powers: 6.9, 4.7, 1.1, and 0.5 kW. The thruster has processed 434 kg of xenon, surpassing the NASA Solar Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program thruster propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare ion thruster and approaching the NEXT development qualification throughput goal of 450 kg. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 16.1 10(exp 6zzz0 N s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. A reduction in neutralizer flow margin has been the only appreciable source of thruster performance degradation. The behavior of the neutralizer is not easily predicted due to both erosion and deposition observed in previous wear tests. Spot-to-plume mode transition flow data and in-situ erosion results for the LDT neutralizer are discussed. This loss of flow margin has been addressed through a combination of a design change in the prototype-model neutralizer to increase flow margin at low emission current and to update the NEXT throttle table to ensure adequate flow margin as a function of propellant throughput processed. The new throttle table will be used for future LDT operations. The performance of the NEXT LDT neutralizer is consistent with that observed for long-life hollow cathodes. The neutralizer life-limiting failure modes are progressing as expected and the neutralizer data indicate none of the neutralizer failures are imminent.

Herman, Daniel A.↗

Status of the NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test After 30,352 Hours of Operation

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is tasked with significantly improving and extending the capabilities of current state-of-the-art NSTAR thruster. The service life capability of the NEXT ion thruster is being assessed by thruster wear test and life-modeling of critical thruster components, such as the ion optics and cathodes. The NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT thruster propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster completed the primary goal of the LDT; namely to demonstrate the project qualification throughput of 450 kg by the end of calendar year 2009. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated 30,352 hr of operation and processed 490 kg of xenon throughput--surpassing the NSTAR Extended Life Test hours demonstrated and more than double the throughput demonstrated by the NSTAR flight-spare. Thruster performance changes have been consistent with a priori predictions. Thruster erosion has been minimal and consistent with the thruster service life assessment, which predicts the first failure mode at greater than 750 kg throughput. The life-limiting failure mode for NEXT is predicted to be loss of structural integrity of the accelerator grid due to erosion by charge-exchange ions.

Herman, Daniel A.↗

Effects of Transport Delays of Manual Control System Performance

Throughput or transport delays in manual control systems can cause degraded performance and lead to potentially unstable operation. With the expanding use of digital processors, throughput delays can occur in manual control systems in a variety of ways such as in digital flight control systems in real aircraft, and in equation of motion computers and computer generated images in simulators. Research has shown the degrading effect of throughput delays on subjective opinion and system performance and dynamic response. A generic manual control system model is used to provide a relatively simple analysis of and explanation for the effects of various types of delays. The consequence of throughput delays of some simple system architectures is also discussed.

Allen, R. W.↗

Performance of a disk array prototype

A prototype disk array's component-performance limits are examined using SCSI bus traces, Sprite operating system traces, and user programs. The array performs successfully for a workload of small, random I/O operations, achieving 275 I/Os per second on 14 disks before the Sun4/280 host becomes CPU-limited. The prototype is less successful in delivering high throughput for large, sequential operations. Memory system contention on the Sun4/280 host limits throughput to 2.3 MBytes/sec under the Sprite Operating System. Throughput is also limited by the bandwidth supported by the VME backplane, disk controller and disks, and overheads associated with the SCSI protocol. We conclude that merely using a powerful host CPU and many disks will not provide the full bandwidth possible from disk arrays. Host memory bandwidth and throughput of disk controllers are equally important. In addition, operating systems should avoid unnecessary copy and cache flush operations that can saturate the host memory system.

Chervenak, Ann L.↗

Development and Performance of the ACTS High Speed VSAT

The Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS), developed by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has demonstrated the breakthrough technologies of Ka-band, spot beam antennas, and on-board processing. These technologies have enabled the development of very small aperture terminals (VSAT) and ultra-small aperture terminals (USAT) which have capabilities greater than were previously possible with conventional satellite technologies. However, the ACTS baseband processor (BBP) is designed using a time division multiple access (TDMA) scheme, which requires each earth station using the BBP to transmit data at a burst rate which is much higher than the user throughput data rate. This tends to mitigate the advantage of the new technologies by requiring a larger earth station antenna and/or a higher-powered uplink amplifier than would be necessary for a continuous transmission at the user data rate. Conversely, the user data rate is much less than the rate that can be supported by the antenna size and amplifier. For example, the ACTS TI VSAT operates at a burst rate of 27.5 Mbps, but the maximum user data rate is 1.792 Mbps. The throughput efficiency is slightly more than 6.5%. For an operational network, this level of overhead will greatly increase the cost of the user earth stations, and that increased cost must be repeated thousands of times, which may ultimately reduce the market for such a system. The ACTS High Speed VSAT (HS VSAT) is an effort to experimentally demonstrate the maximum user throughput data rate which can be achieved using the technologies developed and implemented on ACTS. Specifically, this was done by operating the system uplinks as frequency division multiple access (FDMA), essentially assigning all available TDMA time slots to a single user on each of two uplink frequencies. Preliminary results show that using a 1.2-m antenna in this mode, the HS VSAT can achieve between 22 and 24 Mbps out of the 27.5 Mbps burst rate, for a throughput efficiency of 80-88%. This paper describes the modifications made to the TI VSAT to enable it to operate at high speed, including hardware considerations, interface modifications, and software modifications. In addition, it describes the results of NASA HS VSAT experiments, continuing work on an improved user interface, and plans for future experiments.

Quintana, J.↗

Development of In-Situ Erosion Measurement Techniques for Application to Real-Time Determination of Plasma Thruster Component Lifetimes

This research has resulted in advancing the laser-based diagnostic capability and the ion optics development in the ion propulsion program at NASA GRC. Laser-based plasma diagnostics have been demonstrated in tabletop experiments and, in the case of LDI, on laboratory hollow cathodes. Assessment by GRC of its resources and priorities two years into the grant lead to a refocusing of the research effort away from the development of a real-time erosion rate measurement technique. The extension of the diagnostic techniques to diagnostic tools has been transferred to graduate students under the technical direction of the PI. These diagnostics may facilitate the development of ion thruster with significantly improved throughput capability for lower-power (10 kW) missions High-Isp, Long-lived ion optics development has proceeded from simple extensions of state-of-the-art geometries to radically different geometries and materials. Full-scale testing of these ion optics has demonstrated a significant advance in the throughput capability of ion thrusters enabling significantly more demanding missions. The capability to predict the throughput was developed and will continue to be upgraded. The performance models have been validated via full-scale testing. Partial validation of the throughput prediction will be completed via an upcoming wear test of the ion optics.

Source record↗

Life in the Fast Lane for Protein Crystallization and X-Ray Crystallography

The common goal for structural genomic centers and consortiums is to decipher as quickly as possible the three-dimensional structures for a multitude of recombinant proteins derived from known genomic sequences. Since X-ray crystallography is the foremost method to acquire atomic resolution for macromolecules, the limiting step is obtaining protein crystals that can be useful of structure determination. High-throughput methods have been developed in recent years to clone, express, purify, crystallize and determine the three-dimensional structure of a protein gene product rapidly using automated devices, commercialized kits and consolidated protocols. However, the average number of protein structures obtained for most structural genomic groups has been very low compared to the total number of proteins purified. As more entire genomic sequences are obtained for different organisms from the three kingdoms of life, only the proteins that can be crystallized and whose structures can be obtained easily are studied. Consequently, an astonishing number of genomic proteins remain unexamined. In the era of high-throughput processes, traditional methods in molecular biology, protein chemistry and crystallization are eclipsed by automation and pipeline practices. The necessity for high rate production of protein crystals and structures has prevented the usage of more intellectual strategies and creative approaches in experimental executions. Fundamental principles and personal experiences in protein chemistry and crystallization are minimally exploited only to obtain "low-hanging fruit" protein structures. We review the practical aspects of today s high-throughput manipulations and discuss the challenges in fast pace protein crystallization and tools for crystallography. Structural genomic pipelines can be improved with information gained from low-throughput tactics that may help us reach the higher-bearing fruits. Examples of recent developments in this area are reported from the efforts of the Southeast Collaboratory for Structural Genomics (SECSG).

Pusey, Marc L.↗

Life in the fast lane for protein crystallization and X-ray crystallography

The common goal for structural genomic centers and consortiums is to decipher as quickly as possible the three-dimensional structures for a multitude of recombinant proteins derived from known genomic sequences. Since X-ray crystallography is the foremost method to acquire atomic resolution for macromolecules, the limiting step is obtaining protein crystals that can be useful of structure determination. High-throughput methods have been developed in recent years to clone, express, purify, crystallize and determine the three-dimensional structure of a protein gene product rapidly using automated devices, commercialized kits and consolidated protocols. However, the average number of protein structures obtained for most structural genomic groups has been very low compared to the total number of proteins purified. As more entire genomic sequences are obtained for different organisms from the three kingdoms of life, only the proteins that can be crystallized and whose structures can be obtained easily are studied. Consequently, an astonishing number of genomic proteins remain unexamined. In the era of high-throughput processes, traditional methods in molecular biology, protein chemistry and crystallization are eclipsed by automation and pipeline practices. The necessity for high-rate production of protein crystals and structures has prevented the usage of more intellectual strategies and creative approaches in experimental executions. Fundamental principles and personal experiences in protein chemistry and crystallization are minimally exploited only to obtain "low-hanging fruit" protein structures. We review the practical aspects of today's high-throughput manipulations and discuss the challenges in fast pace protein crystallization and tools for crystallography. Structural genomic pipelines can be improved with information gained from low-throughput tactics that may help us reach the higher-bearing fruits. Examples of recent developments in this area are reported from the efforts of the Southeast Collaboratory for Structural Genomics (SECSG).

Review↗

NEXT Long-Duration Test After 11,570 h and 237 kg of Xenon Processed

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art in ion propulsion to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced mission capabilities at a low total development cost. As part of a comprehensive thruster service life assessment utilizing both testing and analyses, a Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the mission-derived throughput requirement of 300 kg. This wear test is being conducted with a modified, flight-representative NEXT engineering model ion thruster, designated EM3. As of September 1, 2007, the thruster has accumulated 11,570 h of operation primarily at the thruster full-input-power of 6.9 kW with 3.52 A beam current and 1800 V beam power supply voltage. The thruster has processed 237 kg of xenon surpassing the NSTAR propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 (DS1) flight spare. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 9.78 10(exp 6) N(dot)s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. Thruster performance tests are conducted periodically over the entire NEXT throttle table with input power ranging 0.5 to 6.9 kW. Thruster performance parameters including thrust, input power, specific impulse, and thruster efficiency have been nominal with little variation to date. Lifetime-limiting component erosion rates have been consistent with the NEXT service life assessment, which predicts the earliest failure sometime after 750 kg of xenon propellant throughput; well beyond the mission-derived lifetime requirement. The NEXT wear test data confirm that the erosion of the discharge keeper orifice, enlarging of nominal-current-density accelerator grid aperture cusps at full-power, and the decrease in cold grid-gap observed during NSTAR wear testing have been mitigated in the NEXT design. NEXT grid-gap data indicate a hot grid-gap at full-power that is 60 percent of the nominal cold grid-gap. This paper presents the status of the NEXT LDT to date with emphasis on comparison to the NSTAR extended life test results.

Soulas, George C.↗

NEXT Long-Duration Test Plume and Wear Characteristics after 16,550 h of Operation and 337 kg of Xenon Processed

The NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) program is developing the next-generation ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art. The NEXT ion propulsion system provides improved mission capabilities for future NASA science missions to enhance and enable Discovery, New Frontiers, and Flagship-type NASA missions. As part of a comprehensive thruster service life assessment utilizing both testing and analyses, a Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated to validate and qualify the NEXT propellant throughput capability to a qualification-level of 450 kg, 1.5 times the mission-derived throughput requirement of 300 kg. This wear test is being conducted with a modified, flight-representative NEXT engineering model ion thruster, designated EM3. As of June 25, 2008, the thruster has accumulated 16,550 h of operation: the first 13,042 h at the thruster full-input-power of 6.9 kW with 3.52 A beam current and 1800 V beam power supply voltage. Operation since 13,042 h, i.e., the most recent 3,508 h, has been at an input power of 4.7 kW with 3.52 A beam current and 1180 V beam power supply voltage. The thruster has processed 337 kg of xenon (Xe) surpassing the NSTAR propellant throughput demonstrated during the extended life testing of the Deep Space 1 flight spare. The NEXT LDT has demonstrated a total impulse of 13.3 106 N s; the highest total impulse ever demonstrated by an ion thruster. Thruster plume diagnostics and erosion measurements are obtained periodically over the entire NEXT throttle table with input power ranging 0.5 to 6.9 kW. Observed thruster component erosion rates are consistent with predictions and the thruster service life assessment. There have not been any observed anomalous erosion and all erosion estimates indicate a thruster throughput capability that exceeds ~750 kg of Xe, an equivalent of 36,500 h of continuous operation at the full-power operating condition. This paper presents the erosion measurements and plume diagnostic results for the NEXT LDT to date with emphasis on the change in thruster operating condition and resulting impact on wear characteristics. Ion optics grid-gap data, both cold and operating, are presented. Performance and wear predictions for the LDT throttle profile are presented.

Herman, Daniel A.↗

Incorporating Active Runway Crossings in Airport Departure Scheduling

A mixed integer linear program is presented for deterministically scheduling departure and ar rival aircraft at airport runways. This method addresses different schemes of managing the departure queuing area by treating it as first-in-first-out queues or as a simple par king area where any available aircraft can take-off ir respective of its relative sequence with others. In addition, this method explicitly considers separation criteria between successive aircraft and also incorporates an optional prioritization scheme using time windows. Multiple objectives pertaining to throughput and system delay are used independently. Results indicate improvement over a basic first-come-first-serve rule in both system delay and throughput. Minimizing system delay results in small deviations from optimal throughput, whereas minimizing throughput results in large deviations in system delay. Enhancements for computational efficiency are also presented in the form of reformulating certain constraints and defining additional inequalities for better bounds.

Gupta, Gautam↗

Lifetime Assessment of the NEXT Ion Thruster

Ion thrusters are low thrust, high specific impulse devices with required operational lifetimes on the order of 10,000 to 100,000 hr. The NEXT ion thruster is the latest generation of ion thrusters under development. The NEXT ion thruster currently has a qualification level propellant throughput requirement of 450 kg of xenon, which corresponds to roughly 22,000 hr of operation at the highest throttling point. Currently, a NEXT engineering model ion thruster with prototype model ion optics is undergoing a long duration test to determine wear characteristics and establish propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster includes many improvements over previous generations of ion thrusters, but two of its component improvements have a larger effect on thruster lifetime. These include the ion optics with tighter tolerances, a masked region and better gap control, and the discharge cathode keeper material change to graphite. Data from the NEXT 2000 hr wear test, the NEXT long duration test, and further analysis is used to determine the expected lifetime of the NEXT ion thruster. This paper will review the predictions for all of the anticipated failure mechanisms. The mechanisms will include wear of the ion optics and cathode s orifice plate and keeper from the plasma, depletion of low work function material in each cathode s insert, and spalling of material in the discharge chamber leading to arcing. Based on the analysis of the NEXT ion thruster, the first failure mode for operation above a specific impulse of 2000 sec is expected to be the structural failure of the ion optics at 750 kg of propellant throughput, 1.7 times the qualification requirement. An assessment based on mission analyses for operation below a specific impulse of 2000 sec indicates that the NEXT thruster is capable of double the propellant throughput required by these missions.

VanNoord, Jonathan L.↗

Fast and Adaptive Lossless Onboard Hyperspectral Data Compression System

Modern hyperspectral imaging systems are able to acquire far more data than can be downlinked from a spacecraft. Onboard data compression helps to alleviate this problem, but requires a system capable of power efficiency and high throughput. Software solutions have limited throughput performance and are power-hungry. Dedicated hardware solutions can provide both high throughput and power efficiency, while taking the load off of the main processor. Thus a hardware compression system was developed. The implementation uses a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). The implementation is based on the fast lossless (FL) compression algorithm reported in Fast Lossless Compression of Multispectral-Image Data (NPO-42517), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 8 (August 2006), page 26, which achieves excellent compression performance and has low complexity. This algorithm performs predictive compression using an adaptive filtering method, and uses adaptive Golomb coding. The implementation also packetizes the coded data. The FL algorithm is well suited for implementation in hardware. In the FPGA implementation, one sample is compressed every clock cycle, which makes for a fast and practical realtime solution for space applications. Benefits of this implementation are: 1) The underlying algorithm achieves a combination of low complexity and compression effectiveness that exceeds that of techniques currently in use. 2) The algorithm requires no training data or other specific information about the nature of the spectral bands for a fixed instrument dynamic range. 3) Hardware acceleration provides a throughput improvement of 10 to 100 times vs. the software implementation. A prototype of the compressor is available in software, but it runs at a speed that does not meet spacecraft requirements. The hardware implementation targets the Xilinx Virtex IV FPGAs, and makes the use of this compressor practical for Earth satellites as well as beyond-Earth missions with hyperspectral instruments.

Aranki, Nazeeh I.↗

High Count-Rate Study of Two TES X-Ray Microcalorimeters With Different Transition Temperatures

We have developed transition-edge sensor (TES) microcalorimeter arrays with high count-rate capability and high energy resolution to carry out x-ray imaging spectroscopy observations of various astronomical sources and the Sun. We have studied the dependence of the energy resolution and throughput (fraction of processed pulses) on the count rate for such microcalorimeters with two different transition temperatures T(sub c). Devices with both transition temperatures were fabricated within a single microcalorimeter array directly on top of a solid substrate where the thermal conductance of the microcalorimeter is dependent upon the thermal boundary resistance between the TES sensor and the dielectric substrate beneath. Because the thermal boundary resistance is highly temperature dependent, the two types of device with different T(sub c)(sup s) had very different thermal decay times, approximately one order of magnitude different. In our earlier report, we achieved energy resolutions of 1.6 and 2.eV at 6 keV from lower and higher T(sub c) devices, respectively, using a standard analysis method based on optimal filtering in the low flux limit. We have now measured the same devices at elevated x-ray fluxes ranging from 50 Hz to 1000 Hz per pixel. In the high flux limit, however, the standard optimal filtering scheme nearly breaks down because of x-ray pile-up. To achieve the highest possible energy resolution for a fixed throughput, we have developed an analysis scheme based on the socalled event grade method. Using the new analysis scheme, we achieved 5.0 eV FWHM with 96 Percent throughput for 6 keV x-rays of 1025 Hz per pixel with the higher T(sub c) (faster) device, and 5.8 eV FWHM with 97 Percent throughput with the lower T(sub c) (slower) device at 722 Hz.

Lee, Sang-Jun↗

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗