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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Representation of Tropical Storms by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2

This study examines the veracity of the tropical cyclone (TC) statistics estimated from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) global atmospheric reanalysis, focusing on the climatological-mean genesis regions, tracks and their lifetime maximum intensity, as well as the interannual and intraseasonal variations in TC activity. The results are validated against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data for 1980-2016. MERRA-2 represents the spatial distribution of the TC genesis location and the tracks realistically well over all main development regions (MDRs), but with notable discrepancies including too weak TC activity over the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea and too strong activity over the North Indian Ocean. Over the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic, MERRA-2 underestimates recurving TCs steered by background westerlies in the mid-latitudes and thereby exaggerates northwestward moving TCs, resulting in an overestimate of the landfall probability in East Asia and North America. Excessive development of TCs over the Bay of Bengal also tends to exaggerate the landfall probability in India. In spite of the discrepancies in the annual TC number, the seasonal variation of TC genesis is realistic in MERRA-2. MERRA-2 also captures the TC intensity relationship between the minimum pressure and the maximum surface wind speed at the mature stage, although the maximum intensity is weaker than in the observations. While MERRA-2 tends to reproduce the interannual variations of the observed TC number and the power dissipation index (PDI), the level of accuracy depends on the region. MERRA-2 describes the changes in the TC genesis region and tracks realistically according to the different phases of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), although it is less realistic over the North Indian Ocean.

International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewa↗
NASA NTRS2021

US Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature

We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change.

tropical cyclone (TC) model↗
NASA NTRS2004

Impacts of Air-Sea Interaction on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity

The influence of hurricane-ocean coupling on intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated through idealized numerical experiments using a coupled hurricane-ocean model. The focus is placed on how air-sea interaction affects TC tracks and intensity. It is found that the symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is primarily responsible for the TC weakening in the coupled experiments because the induced asymmetric circulation associated with the asymmetric SST anomalies is weak and shallow. The track difference between the coupled and fixed SST experiments is generally small because of the competing processes. One is associated with the modified TC asymmetries. The asymmetric SST anomalies - weaken the surface fluxes in the rear and enhance the fluxes in the front. As a result, the enhanced diabatic heating is located on the southern side for a westward-moving TC, tending to shift the TC southward. The symmetric SST anomalies weakens the TC intensity and thus the dymmetrization process, leading to more prominent TC asymmetries. The other is associated with the weakening of the beta drift resulting from the weakening of the TC outer strength. In the coupled experiment, the weakening of the beta drift leads to a more northward shift. By adjusting the vortex outer strength of the initial vortices, the beta drift can vary while the effect of air-sea interaction changes little. Two types of track differences simulated in the previous numerical studies are obtained.

Wu, Liguang↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

Hurricanes↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Teal Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System Human-in-the-Loop Ground Evaluation for Long-Duration Spaceflight

Purpose: To counter the deleterious effects of weightlessness on the cardiopulmonary system, astronauts living on the International Space Station exercise on a variety of countermeasure equipment including the Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System (CEVIS). Operational since 2001, the onboard CEVIS will be replaced by a new model, known as Teal CEVIS (TC). As a part of ground evaluation, TC hardware underwent human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing to verify the TC hardware produces workloads that elicit physiologic responses comparable to a laboratory cycle ergometer (LAB). Methods: Seven subjects (5 M/2 F) performed submaximal cycle ergometer testing with indirect calorimetry measures on TC and LAB on separate test days. Testing consisted of graded 30 watt increases in workload until subjects reached 85% of age-predicted max heart rate (HR). Exercise outcomes included rate of oxygen uptake (VO2; liters/min), rate of energy expenditure (REE; kcal/min), and HR (beats/min). Linear mixed models (LMM) were fitted to compare VO2, REE, and HR responses between devices across power outputs with fixed effects for power (P) and device (D) and with random effects for subject. LMM effect coefficients (β), std errors (SE), pseudo-partial R2 of effects (pR2), and model likelihood ratio statistics (χ2, Pr(> chisq); α<.05) are provided. Results: LMM main effects for P and D were observed for VO2 (βp=.0107, SE = .0002, pR2=0.97; βd = -0.075, SE = 0.019, pR2=0.14; χ2(1)= 13.57, p<.001), such that VO2 was higher across stages on TC. Main effects of P and D were observed for REE (βp= .0586, SE = 0.001, pR2= 0.97; βd = -0.33208, SE = 0.099, pR2= 0.056; χ2(1)=10.481, p < .01), such that REE was higher across power outputs on TC. A P x D interaction was observed for HR, along with main effects for P and D (βp x d =-0.048, SE = 0.02, pR2=0.048; βp= 0.42, SE = 0.016, pR2=0.87; χ2(1) = 5.398, p = 0.02), such that higher workloads elicited a greater difference in HR between devices. Conclusions: HITL results show, TC elicits greater physiologic responses across power outputs compared to LAB. However, pR2 for device effects show small differences between devices. Therefore, TC can be expected to provide appropriate physiological stimulus across workloads and be considered a reliable tool to mitigate the effects of weightlessness.

Cycle Ergometer Vibration and Isolation System↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRS2003

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

Wu, Li-Guang↗
NASA NTRS1997

Local homogeneity of cell cycle length in developing mouse cortex

We have measured the amount of variation in the length of the cell cycle for cells in the pseudostratified ventricular epithelium (PVE) of the developing cortex of mice on embryonic day 14. Our measurements were made in three cortical regions (i.e., the neocortex, archicortex, and periarchicortex) using three different methods: the cumulative labeling method (CLM), the percent labeled mitoses (PLM) method, and a comparison of the time needed for the PLM to ascend from 0 to 100% with the time needed for the PLM to descend from 100 to 0%. These 3 different techniques provide different perspectives on the cytokinetic parameters. Theoretically, CLM gives an estimate for a maximum value of the total length of the cell cycle (TC), whereas PLM gives an estimate of a minimum value of TC. The difference between these two estimates indicates that the range for TC is +/-1% of the mean TC for periarchicortex, +/-7% for neocortex, and +/-8% for archicortex. This was confirmed by a lengthening of the PLM descent time in comparison with its ascent time. The sharpness of the transitions and the flatness of the plateau of the PLM curves indicate that 99% of the proliferating cells are within this narrow estimated range for TC; hence, only approximately 1% deviate outside of a relatively restricted range from the average TC of the population. In the context of the possible existence within the cortical PVE of two populations with markedly dissimilar cell cycle kinetics from the mean, one such population must comprise approximately 99% of the total population, and the other, if it exists, is only approximately 1% of the total. This seems to be true for all three cortical regions. The narrow range of TC indicates a homogeneity in the cell cycle length for proliferating cells in three different cortical regions, despite the fact that progenitor cells of different lineages may be present. It further predicts the existence of almost synchronous interkinetic nuclear movements of the proliferating cells in the ventricular zone during early development of the cerebral cortex.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2006

Techniques for Connecting Superconducting Thin Films

Several improved techniques for connecting superconducting thin films on substrates have been developed. The techniques afford some versatility for tailoring the electronic and mechanical characteristics of junctions between superconductors in experimental electronic devices. The techniques are particularly useful for making superconducting or alternatively normally conductive junctions (e.g., Josephson junctions) between patterned superconducting thin films in order to exploit electron quantum-tunneling effects. The techniques are applicable to both low-Tc and high-Tc superconductors (where Tc represents the superconducting- transition temperature of a given material), offering different advantages for each. Most low-Tc superconductors are metallic, and heretofore, connections among them have been made by spot welding. Most high-Tc superconductors are nonmetallic and cannot be spot welded. These techniques offer alternatives to spot welding of most low-Tc superconductors and additional solutions to problems of connecting most high-Tc superconductors.

Mester, John↗
NASA NTRS2014

Effects of Dopant on Depoling Temperature in Modified BiScO3 - PbTiO3

In recent years there has been a renewed interest for high temperature piezoelectrics for both terrestrial and aerospace applications. These applications are limited in part by the operating temperature, which is usually taken as one half of the Curie temperature (Tc), and is 200C for one of the most widely used commercial piezoelectrics, Pb(Zr,Ti)O3 (PZT). In an effort to increase Tc, subsequent research into high temperature Bi(BB)O3 PbTiO3 piezoelectrics led to the discovery of the morphotropic phase boundary (MPB) in the high-Tc BiScO3 PbTiO3 (BS-PT) system with a Tc of 460C and a d33 of 460 pmV. The Tc marks the ferroelectric to paraelectric phase transformation and while, in general, a phase transformation leads to thermal depoling in piezoelectrics with low or moderate Tcs, for high Tc piezoelectrics thermally assisted dipole rotation can lead to randomization of domains at temperatures below Tc. It becomes necessary to determine the depoling temperature (Td) which dictates the actual working temperature range. By doping for Sc and Ti the Td can be shifted while maintaining similar electromechanical properties as a function of temperature. The effect of this B-site doping on depoling temperature has been explored through the characterization of microstructure and weakhigh field measurements.

Actuator↗
NASA NTRS1985

Elemental technetium as a cosmic-ray clock

Several radioactive isotopes have been proposed as clocks for the study of the mean cosmic ray confinement time, T sub e. Measurements of Be-10 and Al-26 give a value for T sub e of about 10 Myr when one uses a leaky box cosmic ray propagation model. It is important to obtain additional measurements of T sub e from other radioactive isotopes in order to check whether the confinement is the same throughout the periodic table. The possible use of Tc (Z = 43) as a cosmic clock is investigated. Since all isotopes of Tc are radioactive, one might be able to group these isotopes and use the elemental abundance as a whole. The results of the calculations are somewhat inconclusive for two reasons. First, the beta + decay half lives of two of the Tc isotopes relevant to our calculation are not known. Second, the dependence of the Tc abundance on the mean confinement time is rather weak when one considers the number of events expected in 4 trays of plastic track detectors. However, a future, finite measurement of the Beta + half lives and the possible use of the entire collecting area of the HNC to detect Tc nuclei could make the use of Tc as a cosmic ray clock more attractive.

Drach, J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Elemental technetium and promethium as cosmic-ray clocks

The possibility of using elemental Tc (Z = 43) and Pm (Z = 61) as clocks to measure the mean cosmic-ray confinement time in the Galaxy, tau(epsilon) is considered. For this purpose it is necessary to estimate the unknown beta(+) decay half-lives of several Tc and Pm isotopes; these estimates are obtained using beta-decay systematics. In the case of Tc it is possible to estimate the half-lives sufficiently well and show that this element can indeed be used as a cosmic-ray clock; in the case of Pm the half-lives are too uncertain to permit any conclusion. In order to make meaningful measurement of tau(epsilon) using elemental Tc, a comsic-ray detector must have a charge resolution less than about 0.25e in the region around Tc, and enough collecting power to detect a few hundred Tc nuclei.

Drach, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Specific features of space-time variations of ozone during the development of intensive tropical disturbances

An analysis of specific features of space-time variations of ozone in the tropical areas which has been performed on the basis of processing of the results of special expedition studies in the Atlantic and Pacific in 1987-1990 and the data of observations at the stations of the world ozonometric network over the 25-year period. The existence of a cause-and-effect relation has been revealed between the processes determining tropical cyclone (TC) development, and specific features of variations of the total content of ozone (TCO) and the vertical distribution of ozone (VDO) in the regions of TC action. Characteristic features of day-to-day and daily variations of TCO during TC development have been found. On the periphery of a developing TC, 1-4 days before it reaches the stage of storm, TCO increases, on average, by 5-8 percent, and a substantial increase in the concentration of ozone occurs in the middle and upper troposphere. The most probable physical mechanisms relating the observed specific features of ozone variations to TC evolution have been suggested. A hypothesis of the possibility of using ozone as an indicator for early prediction of TC development has been substantiated.

Nerushev, Alexander F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Quaternary borocarbides: New class of intermetallic superconductors

Our recent discovery of superconductivity (SC) in the four-element multiphase Y-Ni-B-C system at an elevated temperature (TC approximately 12 K) has opened up great possibilities of identifying new superconducting materials and generating new physics. Superconductivity with Tc (greater than 20 K) higher than that known so far in bulk intermetallics has been observed in multiphase Y-Pd-B-C and Th-Pd-B-C systems and a family of single phase materials RENi2B2C (RE= Y, rare earth) have been found. Our investigations show YNi2B2C to be a strong coupling hard type-II SC. HC2(T) exhibits an unconventional temperature dependence. Specific heat and magnetization studies reveal coexistence of SC and magnetism in RNi2B2C (R = Ho, Er, Tm) with magnetic ordering temperatures (Tc approximately 8 K, 10.5 K, 11 K and Tm approximately 5 K, approximately 7K, approximately 4 K respectively) that are remarkably higher than those in known magnetic superconductors . Mu-SR studies suggest the possibility of Ni atoms carrying a moment in TmNi2B2C. Resistivity results suggests a double re-entrant transition (SC-normal-SC) in HoNi2B2C. RENi2B2C (RE = Ce, Nd, Gd) do not show SC down to 4.2 K. The Nd- and Gd-compounds order magnetically at approximately 4.5 K and approximately 19.5 K, respectively. Two SC transitions are observed in Y-Pd-B-C (Tc approximately 22 K, approximately 10 K) and in Th-Pd-B-C (Tc approximately 20 K, approximately 14 K) systems, which indicate that there are at least two structures which support SC in these borocarbides. In our multiphase ThNi2B2C we observe SC at approximately 6 K. No SC was seen in multiphase UNi2B2C, UPd2B2C, UOs2Ge2C and UPd5B3C(0.35) down to 4.2 K. Tc in YNi2B2C is depressed by substitutions (Gd, Th and U at Y-sites and Fe, Co at Ni-sites).

Nagarajan, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Global-scale Evaluation of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Using Triple Collocation

Global-scale surface soil moisture products are currently available from multiple remote sensing platforms. Footprint-scale assessments of these products are generally restricted to limited number of densely-instrumented validation sites. However, by taking active and passive soil moisture products together with a third independent soil moisture estimates via land surface modeling, triple collocation (TC) can be applied to estimate the correlation metric of satellite soil moisture products (versus an unknown ground truth) over a quasi-global domain. Here, an assessment of Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture retrievals via TC is presented. Considering the potential violation of TC error assumptions, the impact of active-passive and satellite-model error cross correlations on the TC-derived inter-comparison results is examined at in situ sites using quadruple collocation analysis. In addition, confidence intervals for the TC-estimated correlation metric are constructed from moving-block bootstrap sampling designed to preserve the temporal persistence of the original (unevenly-sampled) soil moisture time-series. This study is the first to apply TC to obtain a robust global-scale cross-assessment of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT soil moisture retrieval accuracy in terms of anomaly temporal correlation. Our results confirm the overall advantage of SMAP (with a global average anomaly correlation of 0.76) over SMOS (0.66) and ASCAT (0.63) that has been established in several recent regional, ground-based studies. SMAP is also the best-performing product over the majority of applicable land pixels (52%), although SMOS and ASCAT each shows advantage in distinct geographic regions.

global-scale↗