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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Close-in Ground Motion from an Underground Chemical Explosion

Understanding the geophysical response near an underground explosion is crucial for generating insights into the source and emplacement conditions that produce distinct observations in monitoring scenarios occurring at greater distances. Recently, Shot A of the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Physics Experiment 1 (PE1) series was conducted at the Nevada National Security Site to provide ground truth for subsurface explosion signal models. This experiment resulted in measuring near-source ground motion at distances ranging from 70 to 1000 m/kt with a 99% success rate, yielding high-fidelity knowledge of the near-field response that can serve as benchmarks for future numerical modeling and experiment planning. However, technical challenges exist in observing near-source phenomena while safeguarding sensitive data acquisition components from the detrimental effects of ground motion in the subsurface. This report outlines tools and techniques to address challenges associated with observing near-source accelerations and within the tunnel drift of the PE1 test bed. Additionally, we describe key systems designed with both modern advancements and legacy guidance to maximize the collection of high-quality ground motion data, which may be applied to constitutive and computational models, leading to new or improved understanding of the near- and far-field signals produced by underground explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

A gradient-based deep neural network model for simulating multiphase flow in porous media

We report simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is crucial for the effective management of subsurface energy and environment-related activities. The numerical simulators used for modeling such processes rely on spatial and temporal discretization of the governing mass and energy balance partial-differential equations (PDEs) into algebraic systems via finite-difference/volume/element methods. These simulators usually require dedicated software development and maintenance, and suffer low efficiency from a runtime and memory standpoint for problems with multi-scale heterogeneity, coupled-physics processes or fluids with complex phase behavior. Therefore, developing cost-effective, data-driven models can become a practical choice, and in this work, we choose deep learning approaches as they can handle high dimensional data and accurately predict state variables with strong nonlinearity. In this paper, we describe a gradient-based deep neural network (GDNN) constrained by the physics related to multiphase flow in porous media. We tackle the nonlinearity of flow in porous media induced by rock heterogeneity, fluid properties, and fluid-rock interactions by decomposing the nonlinear PDEs into a dictionary of elementary differential operators. We use a combination of operators to handle rock spatial heterogeneity and fluid flow by advection. Since the augmented differential operators are inherently related to the physics of fluid flow, we treat them as first principles prior knowledge to regularize the GDNN training. We use the example of pressure management at geologic CO 2 storage sites, where CO 2 is injected in saline aquifers and brine is produced, and apply GDNN to construct a predictive model that is trained with physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. We demonstrate that GDNN can effectively predict the nonlinear patterns of subsurface responses, including the temporal and spatial evolution of the pressure and saturation plumes. We also successfully extend the GDNN to convolutional neural network (CNN), namely gradient-based CNN (GCNN), and validate its capability to improve the prediction accuracy. GDNN has great potential to tackle challenging problems that are governed by highly nonlinear physics and enable the development of data-driven models with higher fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1986

Redetermination of parameters for semi-empirical model for spallogenic He and Ne in chondrites

A semi-empirical model described previously satisfactorily reproduced a number of shielding-dependent variations in the relative production rates of spallogenic He and Ne in chondrites. However, data for cores of the Keyes and St. Severin meteorites showed a subsurface build-up in He-3 which was not predicted with the original model parameters and the model was not pursued. Renewed interest in the preatmospheric size of meteorites, spurred in part by the desirability of understanding the exposure history of the SNC meteorites, justifies redetermination of model parameters.

Nyquist, L. E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrological connectivity: a review and emerging strategies for integrating measurement, modeling, and management

This review synthesizes methods for measuring, modeling, and managing hydrologic connectivity, offering pathways to improve practices and address environmental challenges (e.g., climate change) and sustainability. As a key driver of water movement and nutrient cycling, hydrologic connectivity influences flood mitigation, water quality regulation, and biodiversity conservation. However, traditional field-based methods (e.g., dye tracing), indirect measurements (e.g., runoff analysis), and remote sensing techniques (e.g., InSAR) often struggle to capture the complexity of catchment-scale interactions. Similarly, modeling approaches—including process-based and percolation theory-based models, graph theory, and entropy-based metrics—face limitations in fully representing these interconnected processes. Both modeling and measurement techniques are constrained by inadequate spatial and temporal coverage, high data demands, computational complexity, and difficulties in representing subsurface connectivity. Subsequently, we critique current management practices that prioritize isolated variables (e.g., streamflow, sediment transport) over system-wide strategies and emphasize the need for adaptive, connectivity-based approaches in water resource planning and restoration. Moving forward, we highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, technological innovations (e.g., AI-driven modeling, real-time monitoring), and integrated frameworks to improve connectivity measurement, modeling, and adaptive management to restore fragmented hydrologic networks. This integrated approach sets the stage for transformative water resource management, fostering proactive policy development and stakeholder engagement.

Dwivedi, Dipankar↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) evaluation dataset at 7 catchments across the continental United States

This dataset comprises of the input files and other files required for Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) simulations at 7 catchments across the continental United States. ATS is an integrated surface-subsurface hydrology model. We include Jupyter notebooks (within scripts folder) for individual catchments showing information (including data sources, river network, soil, geology, landuse types etc.) on preparing the machine readable input files. ATS observation output files are provided in the output folder. Figures and analyses (.xlsx sheets) are also provided. The catchments include, Taylor River Upstream (Colorado); (b) Cossatot River (Arkansas); (c) Panther Creek (Alabama); (d) Little Tennessee River (North Carolina and Georgia); (e) Mayo River (Virginia); (f) Flat Brook (New Jersey); (g) Neversink River headwaters (New York). Readme files are provided inside the directories providing more details. Files types include: .xml, .h5, .xlsx, .png, .ipynb, .py, .nc, .txt. All of the files types can be accessed by open source software, details on software requirements are following: .xml (any text editors including notepad and textedit), .h5 (in python using hdf libraries), .xlsx (WPS Office Spreadsheets, OpenOffice Calc, LibreOffice Calc, Microsoft Office etc.), .png (any image viewer), .ipynb (Jupyter notebook), .py (any text editors including notepad and textedit), .nc (using python or other open source software).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on residence time distribution simulation in two 10-kilometer long river sections

This data package is associated with the publication “On the Transferability of Residence Time Distributions in Two 10-km Long River Sections with Similar Hydromorphic Units” submitted to the Journal of Hydrology (Bao et al. 2024).Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface, along with their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface, is crucial for managing water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, directly simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be a time-consuming process, particularly for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models that link RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) may serve as alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. One common concern with these surrogate models, however, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this, we evaluated the HEFs and the resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-kilometer-long river corridors along the Columbia River, using a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework that we previously developed. Applying this framework to the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. This data package includes the model inputs files and the simulation results data. This data package contains 10 folders. The modeling simulation results data are in the folders 100H_pt_data and 300area_pt_data, for the study domain Hanford 100H and 300 area respectively. The remaining eight folders contain the scripts and data to generate the manuscript figures. The file-level metadata file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _flmd.csv) includes a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _dd.csv) includes column header definitions and units of all tabular files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and VariGrid Explorations Inc. [Final Report]

The scope of this project is to advance the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Variable Grid Method (VGM) technology to commercial status thought enhancements upon prior work to produce a VGM application that can rapidly quantify multiple types of data and uncertainty commonly encountered by the subsurface energy industry. Along with development, the project will also include technology demonstrations, through applications using common industry data types and uncertainty metrics, to stress the value the VGM can offer the subsurface energy industry by providing an improved understanding of the strengths and limitations of their data, models, and analytical results. The resulting commercially ready VGM will offer interoperability with common industry software applications to ensure broad ‘plug and play’ functionality that will help keep costs relatively low and foster more rapid industry adoption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2023

South Repeater Building (Swmu 121) Pilot Study Work Plan, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This document is a Pilot Study Work Plan for a groundwater remediation system at the South Repeater Building (N6-1118) located at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. Aqueous fire-fighting foam was applied near the building in the late 1990s during a wildfire. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are components of the foam. Sampling completed at and near the South Repeater Building identified PFAS in groundwater, surface water and soil. KSC is planning to design and install a groundwater remediation system to address the potential for off-Center migration of PFAS compounds in groundwater. This Pilot Study Work Plan outlines subsurface hydrogeologic data that will be collected to use in the construction of a groundwater flow model that will guide the design of a full-scale remediation system. This document was prepared by AECOM Technical Services, Inc., for NASA under Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity Contract 80KSC019D0010, Task Order 80KSC019F0096.

PFAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-Temperature Geothermal Geospatial Datasets: An Example from Alaska

This project is a component of a broader effort focused on geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) with the aim of illustrating the numerous benefits of incorporating GHC and geothermal heat exchange (GHX) into community energy planning and national decarbonization strategies. To better assist private sector investment, it is currently necessary to define and assess the potential of low-temperature geothermal resources. For shallow GHC/GHX fields, there is no formal compilation of subsurface characteristics shared among industry practitioners that can improve system design and operations. Alaska is specifically noted in this work, because heretofore, it has not received a similar focus in geothermal potential evaluations as the contiguous United States. The methodology consists of leveraging relevant data to generate a baseline geospatial dataset of low-temperature resources (less than 150 degrees C) to compare and analyze information accessible to anyone trying to understand the potential of GHC/GHX and small-scale low-temperature geothermal power in Alaska (e.g., energy modelers, communities, planners, and policymakers). Importantly, this project identifies data related to (1) the evaluation of GHC/GHX in the shallow subsurface, and (2) the evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource availability. Additionally, data is being compiled to assess repurposing of oil and gas wells to contribute co-produced fluids toward the geothermal direct use and heating and cooling resource potential. In this work we identified new data from three different datasets of isolated geothermal systems in Alaska and bottom-hole temperature data from oil and gas wells that can be leveraged for evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource potential. The goal of this project is to facilitate future deployment of GHC/GHX analysis and community-led programs and update the low-temperature geothermal resources assessment of Alaska. A better understanding of shallow potential for GHX will improve design and operations of highly efficient GHC systems. The deployment and impact that can be achieved for low-temperature geothermal resources will contribute to decarbonization goals and facilitate widespread electrification by shaving and shifting grid loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2019

GRAIL-Identified Gravity Anomalies in Oceanus Procellarum: Insight into Subsurface Impact and Magmatic Structures on the Moon

Four, quasi-circular, positive Bouguer gravity anomalies (PBGAs) that are similar in diameter (~90-190 km) and gravitational amplitude (> 140 mGal contrast) are identified within the central Oceanus Procellarum region of the Moon. These spatially associated PBGAs are located south of Aristarchus Plateau, north of Flamsteed crater, and two are within the Marius Hills volcanic complex (north and south). Each is characterized by distinct surface geologic features suggestive of ancient impact craters and/or volcanic/plutonic activity. Here, we combine geologic analyses with forward modeling of high-resolution gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission in order to constrain the subsurface structures that contribute to these four PBGAs. The GRAIL data presented here, at spherical harmonic degrees 6–660, permit higher resolution analyses of these anomalies than previously reported, and reveal new information about subsurface structures. Specifically, we find that the amplitudes of the four PBGAs cannot be explained solely by mare-flooded craters, as suggested in previous work; an additional density contrast is required to explain the high-amplitude of the PBGAs. For Northern Flamsteed (190 km diameter), the additional density contrast may be provided by impact-related mantle uplift. If the local crust has a density ~2800 kg/cu.m, then ~7 km of uplift is required for this anomaly, although less uplift is required if the local crust has a lower mean density of ~2500 kg/cu.m. For the Northern and Southern Marius Hills anomalies, the additional density contrast is consistent with the presence of a crustal complex of vertical dikes that occupies up to ~50% of the regionally thin crust. The structure of Southern Aristarchus Plateau (90 km diameter), an anomaly with crater-related topographic structures, remains ambiguous. Based on the relatively small size of the anomaly, we do not favor mantle uplift; however, understanding mantle response in a region of especially thin crust needs to be better resolved. It is more likely that this anomaly is due to subsurface magmatic material given the abundance of volcanic material in the surrounding region. Overall, the four PBGAs analyzed here are important in understanding the impact and volcanic/plutonic history of the Moon, specifically in a region of thin crust and elevated temperatures characteristic of the Procellarum KREEP Terrane.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Validation of Mechanical and Thermal Borehole Breakouts From Polyaxial Laboratory Tests to Determine Maximum Horizontal in Situ Stress

To accurately assess rock behavior in the deep subsurface, it is necessary to measure the in situ stress directions and magnitudes. The current methods for measuring the in situ stress state in the deep subsurface primarily include hydraulic fracturing tests (i.e., the minimum horizontal stress) or occasionally observing existing compressive borehole breakouts (i.e., the maximum horizontal stress) that have occurred naturally from drilling. If there are no existing compressive breakouts in a borehole, the maximum horizontal in situ stress cannot be estimated with much confidence. In response to this data gap, a new thermal breakout technology is being developed that will provide a method for thermally inducing borehole breakouts and obtaining consistent measurements of the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. This thermal breakout technology involves heating the borehole and increasing the thermoelastic compressive stress in the rock until a breakout develops, which is directly correlated to the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. In support of developing the thermal breakout technology, polyaxial laboratory tests have been performed on small-scale boreholes within rock blocks where mechanically- and thermally-induced borehole breakouts have been created. Numerical models along with the principal of superposition were created and used to analyze the polyaxial laboratory tests to predict the maximum horizontal stress, given the same data that would be obtained in an actual subsurface borehole thermal breakout test. Multiple failure criteria were used to evaluate the best prediction of the breakout onset and maximum horizontal stress. The maximum horizontal stress predictions were compared to the actual maximum horizontal stress applied at breakout using acoustic events recorded from emission sensors in the polyaxial tests. The results showed consistent results that could be used to refine the modeling approach and failure criterion that are used to make the maximum horizontal stress predictions. This study provided insight and validation for the thermal breakout stress measurement concept.

Jones, Matt↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building Intelligent Cyberinfrastructure to Learn Iteratively from both Observations and Models for Understanding Watershed Dynamics

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: Watershed processes, such as the fate and transport of sediment, carbon and nutrients across landscapes and their fluxes to water bodies (e.g., streams, rivers and lakes), have important implications for global and regional carbon and nutrient dynamics, biogeochemical functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and soil functions. The magnitude of lateral surface/subsurface transport and fluxes of sediment, carbon and nutrients are key factors controlling the vulnerability of watersheds to climate extremes such as droughts, wildfires, and floods. Recent field observations and other scientific evidence suggest that the magnitudes of lateral transport and fluxes of sediment, carbon and nutrients are governed primarily by the spatial and vertical heterogeneity of landscape and soil properties and by pedogenic processes. However, the current generation of land surface and watershed models do not mechanistically couple the terrestrial and hydrologic systems, nor do they represent sufficiently the spatial and vertical heterogeneity of land surface and subsurface properties. On the other hand, increasing complexity of coupled watershed and land surface models requires more data to parameterize, calibrate and validate. Remote sensing (RS) provides a means to acquire spatial data and characterize their heterogeneity at the watershed scale, overcoming a major limitation associated with conventional point measurements. To improve the representation of land-surface and surface/subsurface process coupling and sub-grid heterogeneity in watershed models, it is essential to build our predictive understanding by learning from both the multi-scale multi-process modeling and diverse multi-scale data while leveraging powerful artificial intelligence (AI) techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Gravity anomaly and structure associated with the Lamont region of the moon

Lamont is a unique lunar feature in southwestern Mare Tranquillitatis associated with radial and concentric ridge patterns and a positive free-air gravity anomaly. Best fitting models to high and low altitude gravity data place nearly all of the anomalous mass in the subsurface, consistent with the hypothesis that Lamont is a mascon. Lamont is positioned on the axis of a 1500 m deep north-south topographic trough occupying western Mare Tranquillitatis. It is proposed that this trough is a synclinal fold in the lunar crust and the tectonic fabric of western Tranquillitatis is consistent with the superposition of the stress fields due to synclinal folding and the loading of the lithosphere by the Lamont mascon.

Dvorak, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-Temperature Geothermal Geospatial Datasets: An Example from Alaska: Preprint

This project is part of a broader effort focused on geothermal heating and cooling with the purpose of demonstrating the multi-faceted value of integrating GHC/GHX into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to better define and evaluate low-temperature geothermal resource potential to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. For shallow GHC/GHX fields, there is no formal compilation of subsurface characteristics shared among industry practitioners that can improve system design and operations. Alaska is specifically noted in this work, because heretofore, it has not received a similar focus in geothermal potential evaluations as the contiguous United States. The methodology consists of leveraging relevant data generate a baseline low-temperature resources (< 150 degrees C) geospatial dataset to compare and analyze information accessible to anyone trying to understand the potential of GHC/GHX and small-scale low-temperature geothermal power in Alaska (e.g., energy modelers, communities, planners, and policymakers). Importantly, this project is identifying data related to (1) the evaluation of GHC/GHX in the shallow subsurface, and (2) the evaluation of low-temperature geothermal resource availability. Additionally, data is being compiled to assess repurposing of oil and gas wells to contribute co-produced fluids toward the geothermal direct use and heating and cooling resource potential. The goal of this project is facilitating future deployment of GHC/GHX analysis and community-led programs and update the low-temperature geothermal resources assessment of Alaska. A better understanding of shallow potential for geothermal heat exchange (GHX) will improve design and operations of highly efficient GHC systems. The deployment and impact that can be achieved for low temperature geothermal resources will contribute to decarbonization goals and facilitate widespread electrification by shaving and shifting grid loads.

bottom-hole temperature↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Autonomous Characterization of Analogue Ocean World Seawater Chemistry and Biosignature Potential Using Isotope Ratio Data

Background: Future missions to ocean worlds, such as Enceladus and Europa, will attempt to characterize the subsurface seawater chemistry and assess the potential for life. Such missions will be equipped with capabilities to precisely measure volatile isotopes in plumes, atmospheres, and exospheres. Motivation: While large isotopic fractionations can indicate a biological source, there are signatures resulting from abiotic geochemical processes that mimic isotopic biosignatures. While machine learning (ML) has the potential to disentangle competing effects and biotic mimicry, high-dimensional isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) data is likely to contain noise/irrelevant features and involve complex statistical interactions that make human inference and interpretation difficult. Further, ML predictions with as far-reaching implications as an extraterrestrial biosignature on an ocean world requires the use of interpretable models (i.e., not “black box” models) with physically and mathematically meaningful feature spaces along with false positive diagnostics. Methods: We use volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to validate an ML approach to provide biogeochemical context for biosignature detection. We employ a feature selection method called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that detects statistical interactions and helps elucidate the mechanisms of the Random Forest classification models. Results: We train and validate predictive ML models on volatile CO2 IRMS data of analogue ocean world seawaters to predict major salt components (e.g., MgSO4, NaHCO3), pH, ionic strength, and the presence of biosignatures. Features derived from IRMS measurements are augmented with extracted time-series features. Our results show high test accuracy and interpretability, which is increased by interaction network visualization, sample-wise variable importance scores, and single-sample class probability estimates. We demonstrate an ML mission software solution that triggers autonomous data transmission and biogeochemical sample prediction.

geochemistry↗