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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Sandstorms and eolian erosion on Mars

It is now apparent that windblown sand plays a major role in the Martian environment. The existence of great sand and dust storms implies the lateral transport of large quantities of material on Mars that provide a convenient mechanism for the filling of craters- an event directly implied both by crater frequency-diameter statistics, and by the appearance of Martian craters. Such fast moving sand particles, saltating close to the Martian surface, can produce by collision and subsequent abrasion significant erosion of the Martian terrain.

Sagan, C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change

The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Demaria, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2006

Design and "As Flown" Radiation Environments for Materials in Low Earth Orbit

A conservative design approach was adopted by the International Space Station Program for specifying total ionizing radiation dose requirements for use in selecting and qualifying materials for construction of the International Space Station. The total ionizing dose design environment included in SSP 30512 Space Station Ionizing Radiation Design Environment is based on trapped proton and electron fluence derived from the solar maximum versions of the AE-8 and AP-8 models, respectively, specified for a circular orbit at 500 km altitude and 51.7 degree inclination. Since launch, the range of altitudes utilized for Space Station operations vary from a minimum of approximately 330 km to a maximum of approximately 405 km with a mean operational altitude less than 400 km. The design environment, therefore, overestimates the radiation environment because the particle flux in the South Atlantic Anomaly is the primary contributor to radiation dose in low Earth orbit and flux within the Anomaly is altitude dependent. In addition, a 2X multiplier is often applied to the design environment to cover effects from the contributions of galactic cosmic rays, solar energetic particle events, geomagnetic storms, and uncertainties in the trapped radiation models which are not explicitly included in the design environment. Application of this environment may give radiation dose overestimates on the order of 1OX to 30X for materials exposed to the space environment, suggesting that materials originally qualified for ten year exposures on orbit may be used for longer periods without replacement. In this paper we evaluate the "as flown" radiation environments derived from historical records of the ISS flight trajectory since launch and compare the results with the SSP 30512 design environment to document the magnitude of the radiation dose overestimate provided by the design environment. "As flown" environments are obtained from application of the AE-8/AP-8 trapped particle models along the ISS flight trajectory including variations in altitude due to decay of the vehicle orbit and periodic reboosts to higher altitudes. In addition, an estimate of the AE-8 model to predict low Earth orbit electron flux (because the radiation dose for thin materials is dominated by the electron component of the radiation environment) is presented based on comparisons of the AE-8 model to measurements of electron integral flux at approximately 850 km from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector on board the NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellite.

Minow, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2008

Coronal Mass Ejections - A Statistical View

Although first recognized in 1971, the quasi-continuous record since 1979 of the appearance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs-perhaps more appropriately called coronal magnetic ejections) has resulted in a stable understanding of their properties, at least from a statistical viewpoint. These eruptions occur every few days during solar activity minimum and many times per day during maximum. They are believed to play an important role throughout the heliosphere in such diverse events as removing helicity from the corona; modulating the energetic particle environment in the inner heliosphere; causing severe geomagnetic storms at Earth and other magnetic bodies throughout the solar system; and controlling the galactic cosmic ray flux. It is therefore understandable that researchers have studied both individual events and the ensemble of CMEs observed over several solar cycles. We will present an overview of these statistics, some new recent observations, and a personal perspective on potential paths of future research.

SaintCyr, O. C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

RELAMPAGO Lightning Mapping Array Update

GLM (Geostationary Lightning Mapper) Science Hypothesis for RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations): Argentinian storms produce some of the highest flash rates ever recorded from space; Due to similarity in geographic and atmospheric environments between Argentina and the U.S. High Plains, we hypothesize that many of these storms have anomalous charge structures, with predominantly positive charge in the mid-levels; Thus, most intracloud lightning flashes are smaller, occur at lower altitudes, and occur in more optically thick portions of the cloud; Therefore, we hypothesize that GLM (and LIS (Lightning Imaging Sensor)) flash rates are biased low in many Argentinian storms, due to reduced optical detection efficiency.

Lang, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric electricity/meteorology analysis

This activity focuses on Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)/Lightning Mapper Sensor (LMS) algorithm development and applied research. Specifically we are exploring the relationships between (1) global and regional lightning activity and rainfall, and (2) storm electrical development, physics, and the role of the environment. U.S. composite radar-rainfall maps and ground strike lightning maps are used to understand lightning-rainfall relationships at the regional scale. These observations are then compared to SSM/I brightness temperatures to simulate LIS/TRMM multi-sensor algorithm data sets. These data sets are supplied to the WETNET project archive. WSR88-D (NEXRAD) data are also used as it becomes available. The results of this study allow us to examine the information content from lightning imaging sensors in low-earth and geostationary orbits. Analysis of tropical and U.S. data sets continues. A neural network/sensor fusion algorithm is being refined for objectively associating lightning and rainfall with their parent storm systems. Total lightning data from interferometers are being used in conjunction with data from the national lightning network. A 6-year lightning/rainfall climatology has been assembled for LIS sampling studies.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Dust Abrasion Damage on Martian Solar Arrays: Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

Here we investigate the effects of erosion and weathering that occur on III-V cover-glass interconnected cells (CICs) after exposure to Mars dust storm conditions. The durability of these materials in a Martian environment is not well characterized so we perform analogous experimentation. To replicate the dust impingement, test coupons were placed in an enclosure and sandblasted with Mars dust simulant. We show the J-V response dependency on both incident angle and exposure times. We find that the simulated Martian dust storm often results in damage to the anti-reflective coating and subsequent reduced short circuit current. Reduction in the open circuit voltage is observed, likely caused by structural damage to the crystal lattice after CIC fracture. We employ data-driven modeling to determine a performance degradation rate that is consistent with zero within uncertainty. We also quantify the soiling contribution and power degradation of the photovoltaic cells on Mars through analysis of 4.95 Martian years of report-out power conditions from the Opportunity rover. We find that atmospheric dust suspended due to a weather event does not result in instantaneous settled dust on the PV cells. We calculate via autocorrelation function that the dust settling rate is approximately 21 Sols from atmospheric dust suspension. The findings presented here deliver a realistic approximation for the insolation values and subsequent PV power expected over time on the Martian surface thus informing future dust abatement systems.

McMillon-Brown, Lyndsey↗
NASA NTRS2019

Dust Abrasion Damage on Martian Solar Arrays: Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

Here we investigate the effects of erosion and weathering that occur on III-V cover-glass interconnected cells (CICs) after exposure to Mars dust storm conditions. The durability of these materials in a Martian environment is not well characterized so we perform analogous experimentation. To replicate the dust impingement, test coupons were placed in an enclosure and sandblasted with Mars dust simulant. We show the J-V response dependency on both incident angle and exposure times. We find that the simulated Martian dust storm often results in damage to the anti-reflective coating and subsequent reduced short circuit current. Reduction in the open circuit voltage is observed, likely caused by structural damage to the crystal lattice after CIC fracture. We employ data-driven modeling to determine a performance degradation rate that is consistent with zero within uncertainty. We also quantify the soiling contribution and power degradation of the photovoltaic cells on Mars through analysis of 4.95 Martian years of report-out power conditions from the Opportunity rover. We find that atmospheric dust suspended due to a weather event does not result in instantaneous settled dust on the PV cells. We calculate via autocorrelation function that the dust settling rate is approximately 21 Sols from atmospheric dust suspension. The findings presented here deliver a realistic approximation for the insolation values and subsequent PV power expected over time on the Martian surface thus informing future dust abatement systems.

McMillon-Brown, Lyndsey↗
NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric energy input and ionization by energetic electrons during the geomagnetic storm of 8-9 November 1991

The Atmospheric X-ray Imaging Spectrometer (AXIS) of the Particle Environment Monitor investigation aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite monitors energy input to the upper atmosphere due to energetic electrons. Analysis of the AXIS data from the major geomagnetic storm of 8-9 November 1991 is presented. During the November storm, electrons above a few keV flowing into a substantially expanded auroral zone provided the bulk of the ionizing power to the upper atmosphere. At the peak of the disturbance the total AXIS-observed power reached 40 GW. On 9 November the whole day average atmospheric ionization rate in the auroral zone at 80 km altitude exceeded the rate due to solar UV and solar X-rays by a factor of over 10 to 100.

Chenette, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Instrumentation and Methodology Development for Mars Mission

The Mars environment comprises a dry, cold and low air pressure atmosphere with low gravity (0.38g) and high resistivity soil. The global dust storms that cover a large portion of Mars were observed often from Earth. This environment provides an idea condition for triboelectric charging. The extremely dry conditions on the Martian surface have raised concerns that electrostatic charge buildup will not be dissipated easily. If triboelectrically generated charge cannot be dissipated or avoided, then dust will accumulate on charged surfaces and electrostatic discharge may cause hazards for future exploration missions. The low surface temperature on Mars helps to prolong the charge decay on the dust particles and soil. To better understand the physics of Martian charged dust particles is essential to future Mars missions. We research and design two sensors, velocity/charge sensor and PZT momentum sensors, to detect the velocity distribution, charge distribution and mass distribution of Martian charged dust particles. These sensors are fabricated at NASA Kenney Space Center, Electromagnetic Physics Testbed. The sensors will be tested and calibrated for simulated Mars atmosphere condition with JSC MARS-1 Martian Regolith simulant in this NASA laboratory.

Chen, Yuan-Liang Albert↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of Charge to Mass Ratio Microdetector for Future Mars Mission

The Mars environment comprises a dry, cold and low air pressure atmosphere with low gravity (0.38g) and high resistivity soil. The global dust storms that cover a large portion of Mars are observed often from Earth. This environment provides an ideal condition for turboelectric charging. The extremely dry conditions on the Martian surface have raised concerns that electrostatic charge buildup will not be dissipated easily. If turboelectrically generated charge cannot be dissipated or avoided, then dust will accumulate on charged surfaces and electrostatic discharge may cause hazards for future exploration missions. The low surface on Mars helps to prolong the charge decay on the dust particles and soil. To better understanding the physics of Martian charged dust particles is essential to future Mars missions. We research and design two sensors, velocity/charge sensor and PZT momentum sensors, to measure the velocity distribution, charge distribution and mass distribution of Martian wed dust particles. These sensors are fabricated at NASA Kenney Space Center, Electrostatic and Surface Physics Laboratory. The sensors are calibrated. The momentum sensor is capable to measure 45 pan size particles. The designed detector is very simple, robust, without moving parts, and does not require a high voltage power supply. Two sensors are combined to form the Dust Microdetector - CHAL.

Chen, Yuan-Lian Albert↗
NASA NTRS2005

Energy Transport in the Thermosphere During the Solar Storms of April 2002

The dramatic solar storm events of April 2002 deposited a large amount of energy into the Earth's upper atmosphere, substantially altering the thermal structure, the chemical composition, the dynamics, and the radiative environment. We examine the flow of energy within the thermosphere during this storm period from the perspective of infrared radiation transport and heat conduction. Observations from the SABER instrument on the TIMED satellite are coupled with computations based on the ASPEN thermospheric general circulation model to assess the energy flow. The dominant radiative response is associated with dramatically enhanced infrared emission from nitric oxide at 5.3 microns from which a total of approx. 7.7 x 10(exp 23) ergs of energy are radiated during the storm. Energy loss rates due to NO emission exceed 2200 Kelvin per day. In contrast, energy loss from carbon dioxide emission at 15 microns is only approx. 2.3% that of nitric oxide. Atomic oxygen emission at 63 microns is essentially constant during the storm. Energy loss from molecular heat conduction may be as large as 3.8% of the NO emission. These results confirm the "natural thermostat" effect of nitric oxide emission as the primary mechanism by which storm energy is lost from the thermosphere below 210 km.

SOLAR STORMS↗
NASA NTRS1965

Nature of the space environment

Solar space environment - cosmic rays, solar wind, solar flare radiation, magnetic storms, atmospheric composition, air glow, and satellite data on Van Allen belts

MAGNETIC STORM↗
NASA NTRS1975

A New Current Drogue System for Remotely Monitoring Shelf Current Circulation

The author has identified the following significant results. An ocean current drogue system was developed for use in the coastal zone and continental shelf region. The method features an extremely simple radiosonde device whose position is determined from a pair of cooperative shore stations. These ocean sondes follow the tradition of the atmospheric radiosonde in that they are economically disposable at the end of their mission. The system was successfully tested in a number of environments, including the North Atlantic in two winter coastal storms. Tracking to the edge of the Baltimore and Wilmington trenches was achieved. The drogue system is being used in conjunction with remote sensing aircraft and satellites to chart current circulation at ocean waste disposal sites 40 miles off Delaware's coast.

Klemas, V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Shuttle Spacesuit (Radiation) Model Development

A detailed spacesuit computational model is being developed at the Langley Research Center for exposure evaluation studies. The details of the construction of the spacesuit are critical to an estimate of exposures and for assessing the health risk to the astronaut during extravehicular activity (EVA). Fine detail of the basic fabric structure, helmet, and backpack is required to assure a valid evaluation. The exposure fields within the Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) and Female (CAF) are evaluated at 148 and 156 points, respectively, to determine the dose fluctuations within critical organs. Exposure evaluations for ambient environments will be given and potential implications for geomagnetic storm conditions discussed.

Anderson, Brooke M.↗