Statistical inference of electron-ion collision rates from simulated XRTS data.
Abstract not provided.
Hentschel, Thomas↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Statistical simulation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Statistical inference of electron-ion collision rates from simulated X-ray Thomson scattering data.
Abstract not provided.
Hentschel, T.↗
Estimating outflow masses and velocities in merger simulations: Impact of r -process heating and neutrino cooling
Here, the determination of the mass, composition, and geometry of matter outflows in black hole-neutron star and neutron star-neutron star binaries is crucial to current efforts to model kilonovae and to understand the role of neutron star merger in r-process nucleosynthesis. In this manuscript, we review the simple criteria currently used in merger simulations to determine whether matter is unbound and what the asymptotic velocity of ejected material will be. We then show that properly accounting for both heating and cooling during r-process nucleosynthesis is important to accurately predict the mass and kinetic energy of the outflows. These processes are also likely to be crucial to predict the fall-back timescale of any bound ejecta. We derive a model for the asymptotic velocity of unbound matter and binding energy of bound matter that accounts for both of these effects and that can easily be implemented in merger simulations. We show, however, that the detailed velocity distribution and geometry of the outflows can currently only be captured by full three-dimensional fluid simulations of the outflows, as nonlocal effect ignored by the simple criteria used in merger simulations cannot be safely neglected when modeling these effects. Finally, we propose the introduction of simple source terms in the fluid equations to approximately account for heating/cooling from r-process nucleosynthesis in future seconds-long three-dimensional simulations of merger remnants, without the explicit inclusion of out-of-nuclear statistical equilibrium reactions in the simulations.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High-Resolution Sea Ice Simulations
Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small-scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state-of-the-art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air-ice-ocean interaction processes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling intrinsic galaxy alignment in the MICE simulation
The intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies is potentially a major limitation in deriving cosmological constraints from weak lensing surveys. In order to investigate this effect, we assign intrinsic shapes and orientations to galaxies in the light-cone output of the MICE simulation, spanning ~ 5000 deg 2 and reaching redshift Z = 1.4. This assignment is based on a semianalytic IA model that uses photometric properties of galaxies as well as the spin and shape of their host halos. Advancing on previous work, we include more realistic distributions of galaxy shapes and a luminosity-dependent galaxy-halo alignment. The IA model parameters are calibrated against COSMOS and BOSS LOWZ observations. The null detection of IA in observations of blue galaxies is accounted for by setting random orientations for these objects. We compare the two-point alignment statistics measured in the simulation against predictions from the analytical IA models NLA and TATT over a wide range of scales, redshifts, and luminosities for red and blue galaxies separately. We find that both models fit the measurements well at scales above 8h -1 Mpc, while TATT outperforms NLA at smaller scales. The IA parameters derived from our fits are in broad agreement with various observational constraints from red galaxies. Finally, we build a realistic source sample, mimicking DES Year 3 observations and use it to predict the IA contamination to the observed shear statistics. We find this prediction to be within the measurement uncertainty, which might be a consequence of the random alignment of blue galaxies in the simulation.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
The Dichotomy of Wet and Dry Trends Over India by Aerosol Indirect Effects in CMIP5 Models
Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions, also known as aerosol indirect effect (AIE), substantially impact rainfall frequency and intensity. Here, we analyze NEX‐GDDP, a multimodel ensemble of high‐resolution (0.25°) historical simulations and future projections statistically downscaled from 21 CMIP5 models, to quantify the importance of AIE on extreme climate indices, specifically consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The 21 NEX‐GDDP CMIP5 models are classified into models with reliable (REM) and unreliable (UREM) monsoon climate simulated over India based on their simulations of the climate indices. The REM group is further decomposed based on whether the models represent only the direct (REM ADE ) or the direct and indirect (REM ALL ) aerosol effects. Compared to REM ADE , including all aerosol effects significantly improves the model skills in simulating the observed historical trends of all three climate indices over India. Specifically, AIE enhances dry days and reduces wet days in India in the historical period, consistent with the observed changes. However, by the middle and end of the 21st century, there is a relative decrease in dry days and an increase in wet days and precipitation intensity. Moreover, the REM ALL simulated future CWD and CDD changes are mostly opposite to those in REM ADE , indicating the substantial role of AIE in the future projection of dry and wet climates. These findings underscore the crucial role of AIE in future projections of the Indian hydroclimate and motivate efforts to accurately represent AIE in climate models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Precision redshift-space galaxy power spectra using Zel'dovich control variates
Numerical simulations in cosmology require trade-offs between volume, resolution and run-time that limit the volume of the Universe that can be simulated, leading to sample variance in predictions of ensemble-average quantities such as the power spectrum or correlation function(s). Sample variance is particularly acute at large scales, which is also where analytic techniques can be highly reliable. This provides an opportunity to combine analytic and numerical techniques in a principled way to improve the dynamic range and reliability of predictions for clustering statistics. In this paper we extend the technique of Zel'dovich control variates, previously demonstrated for 2-point functions in real space, to reduce the sample variance in measurements of 2-point statistics of biased tracers in redshift space. We demonstrate that with this technique, we can reduce the sample variance of these statistics down to their shot-noise limit out to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 . This allows a better matching with perturbative models and improved predictions for the clustering of e.g. quasars, galaxies and neutral Hydrogen measured in spectroscopic redshift surveys at very modest computational expense. We discuss the implementation of ZCV, give some examples and provide forecasts for the efficacy of the method under various conditions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Comparing Emulation Methods for Computer Models with High Dimensional Output
This Master’s Capstone project will present a comparison of statistical models for computer simulation studies. The four models included in this comparison study were chosen for both their proven and diverse methodologies. We will present a case study on hurricane flood data in the Delaware bay which highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model when applied to a very large spatial field. As computers have gotten faster, we have become interested in modeling increasingly large spatial fields in both size and resolution. Statistical algorithms that are able to efficiently handle these fields have never been more important. We therefore find this comparison to be extremely topical.
42 ENGINEERING↗
On the measurement of shape: With applications to lunar regolith
With the renewed commitment from NASA and other commercial entities for a presence on the Moon, the importance of understanding the characteristics of lunar regolith and how to utilize it have become the target of increasing scrutiny. Much of what is known about lunar regolith was collected during and immediately after the Apollo program, however, analytical techniques and instrumentation have advanced in leaps and bounds in the subsequent decades. Specifically, dynamic image analysis systems have advanced to the point that millions of particles can have morphological characteristics automatically determined in relatively short time frames. Particle morphological data was collected on several lunar samples and a pair of widely used regolith simulants to ascertain the accuracy of these simulants and to explore statistical analysis methods of these large datasets. It is found that these morphology datasets can vary widely depending on the particle size of the particles, and simple averaging of the data skews the results heavily towards the numerically abundant size ranges, the fines. Different reporting methods are suggested to ameliorate these problems. When applied to the lunar regolith, the particles are noted to be less morphologically complex than initially suspected. Compared to the lunar material, the simulants are found to contain some more morphological variability and angular grains. Such difference is likely due to the wildly different comminution processes that these different powder systems are subjected to.
2D shape↗
Simulations of muon imaging with the LANL GMT detector for spent nuclear fuel cask content verification
Atmospheric muons are typically high energy, highly penetrating charged particles. They interact with matter primarily through multiple Coulomb scatterings. Muon scattering intensities can be used to characterize the density and atomic number of the matter that they pass through. Previously, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) muon tomography team performed muon imaging of the partially filled MC-10 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cask at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This experiment demonstrated the feasibility of muon imaging for the verification of spent fuel container contents. That original effort used the mini muon tracker array, consisting of two arrays of drift tubes on either side of the SNF cask. The reconstructed image quality was limited by statistics, largely due to low muon flux at high zenith angles. A LANL led team will perform new measurements with a larger array, the Giant Muon Tracker (GMT), to improve data collection rates and statistics. In this work, simulations were performed with the GMT near the partially filled INL MC-10 cask. For more general fuel diversion detection, a full MC-10 cask and casks with a singular missing fuel bundle were also simulated. To understand minimum measurement times needed for missing bundle identification, 100 000 to millions of tracked muons (corresponding to 1.4 days to several weeks measurement time) were analyzed. Simulated images were then analyzed visually and numerically to explore techniques designed to minimize the collection time needed to identify the diversion of fuel in each scenario.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Reconstructing Ly$α$ Fields from Low-resolution Hydrodynamical Simulations with Deep Learning
Hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are a powerful tool for accurately predicting the properties of the intergalactic medium (IGM) and for producing mock skies that can be compared against observational data. However, the need to resolve density fluctuation in the IGM puts a stringent requirement on the resolution of such simulations, which in turn limits the volumes that can be modeled, even on the most powerful supercomputers. In this work, we present a novel modeling method that combines physics-driven simulations with data-driven generative neural networks to produce outputs that are qualitatively and statistically close to the outputs of hydrodynamical simulations employing eight times higher resolution. We show that the Ly$α$ flux field, as well as the underlying hydrodynamic fields, have greatly improved statistical fidelity over a low-resolution simulation. Importantly, the design of our neural network allows for sampling multiple realizations from a given input, enabling us to quantify the model uncertainty. Using test data, we demonstrate that this model uncertainty correlates well with the true error of the Ly$α$ flux prediction. Ultimately, our approach allows for training on small simulation volumes and applying it to much larger ones, opening the door to producing accurate Ly$α$ mock skies in volumes of Hubble size, as will be probed with DESI and future spectroscopic sky surveys.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties
Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Statistical properties of filaments in the cosmic web
ABSTRACT In the context of the cosmological and constrained Exploring the Local Universe with the reConstructed Initial Density field (ELUCID) simulation, this study explores the statistical characteristics of filaments within the cosmic web, focussing on aspects such as the distribution of filament lengths and their radial density profiles. Using the classification of the cosmic web environment through the Hessian matrix of the density field, our primary focus is on how cosmic structures react to the two variables $R_{\rm s}$ and $\lambda _{\rm th}$. The findings show that the volume fractions of knots, filaments, sheets, and voids are highly influenced by the threshold parameter $\lambda _{\rm th}$, with only a slight influence from the smoothing length $R_{\rm s}$. The central axis of the cylindrical filament is pinpointed using the medial-axis thinning algorithm of the COsmic Web Skeleton (COWS) method. It is observed that median filament lengths tend to increase as the smoothing lengths increase. Analysis of filament length functions at different values of $R_{\rm s}$ indicates a reduction in shorter filaments and an increase in longer filaments as $R_{\rm s}$ increases, peaking around $2.5R_{\rm s}$. The study also shows that the radial density profiles of filaments are markedly affected by the parameters $R_{\rm s}$ and $\lambda _{\rm th}$, showing a valley at approximately $2R_{\rm s}$, with increases in the threshold leading to higher amplitudes of the density profile. Moreover, shorter filaments tend to have denser profiles than their longer counterparts.
Zhang, Youcai (ORCID:0000000319674091)↗
An algorithm for detecting and quantifying disturbance and recovery in high-frequency time series
Determining when a disturbance has occurred, its severity, and when the system recovered, is important to numerous questions in the aquatic sciences. This problem can be conceptualized as the timing and degree of perturbation from a typical state, and when the system returns to that typical state. We present an algorithm for detecting disturbance and recovery designed for high-frequency time series, e.g., data produced by automated sampling devices in instrumented buoys and flux towers. The algorithm quantifies differences in the empirical cumulative distribution functions of moving windows over reference and evaluation periods, and is sensitive to changes in the mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. Tests on simulated data show it accurately identifies disturbance and recovery. Three case studies illustrate the application of our algorithm in different empirical settings. A case study on dissolved oxygen in a Florida, USA estuary following a hurricane identified the disturbance and recovery 73 d later. A case study on air temperature and net ecosystem exchange in the Florida everglades identified cold snaps coinciding with periods of reduced carbon uptake. A case study on rotifer abundance following zebra mussel invasion in the Hudson River, NY showed rotifer collapse following invasion and recovery over a decade later. Methods such as ours can improve understanding response to disturbance and facilitate comparative and synthetic study of disturbance impacts across ecosystems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A new Monte Carlo generator for BSM physics in B → K*ℓ+ℓ− decays with an application to lepton non-universality in angular distributions
Abstract Within the widely used EvtGen framework, we have added a new event generator model forB → K * ℓ + ℓ − with improved standard model (SM) decay amplitudes and possible BSM physics contributions, which are implemented in the operator product expansion in terms of Wilson coefficients. This event generator can then be used to estimate the statistical sensitivity of a simulated experiment to the most general BSM signal resulting from dimension-six operators. We describe the advantages and potential of the newly developed ‘Sibidanov Physics Generator’ in improving the experimental sensitivity of searches for lepton non-universal BSM physics and clarifying signatures. The new generator can properly simulate BSM scenarios, interference between SM and BSM amplitudes, and correlations between different BSM observables as well as acceptance bias. We show that exploiting such correlations substantially improves experimental sensitivity. As a demonstration of the utility of the MC generator, we examine the prospects for improved measurements of lepton non-universality in angular distributions forB→K * ℓ + ℓ − decays from the expected 50 ab −1 data set of the Belle II experiment, using a four-dimensional unbinned maximum likelihood fit. We describe promising experimental signatures and correlations between observables. The use of lepton-universality violating ∆-observables significantly reduces uncertainties in the SM expectations due to QCD and resonance effects and is ideally suited for Belle II with the large data sets expected in the next decade. Thanks to the clean experimental environment of ane + e − machine, Belle II should be able to probe BSM physics in the Wilson coefficientsC 7 and$$ {C}_7^{\prime } $$ C 7 ′ , which appear at lowq 2 in the di-electron channel.
Physics↗
Hydrogen effects on the deformation and slip localization in a single crystal austenitic stainless steel
Hydrogen is known to embrittle austenitic stainless steels, which are widely used in high-pressure hydrogen storage and delivery systems, but the mechanisms that lead to such material degradation are still being elucidated. The current work investigates the deformation behavior of single crystal austenitic stainless steel 316L through combined uniaxial tensile testing, characterization and atomistic simulations. Thermally precharged hydrogen is shown to increase the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) without previously reported deviations from Schmid’s law. Molecular dynamics simulations further expose the statistical nature of the hydrogen and vacancy contributions to the CRSS in the presence of alloying. Slip distribution quantification over large in-plane distances (> 1 mm), achieved via atomic force microscopy (AFM), highlights the role of hydrogen increasing the degree of slip localization in both single and multiple slip configurations. The most active slip bands accumulate significantly more deformation in hydrogen precharged specimens, with potential implications for damage nucleation. For $\langle$110$\rangle$ tensile loading, slip localization further enhances the activity of secondary slip, increases the density of geometrically necessary dislocations and leads to a distinct lattice rotation behavior compared to hydrogen-free specimens, as evidenced by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps. Finally, the results of this study provide a more comprehensive picture of the deformation aspect of hydrogen embrittlement in austenitic stainless steels.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States
Electrification of fossil-fuel combustion in buildings is a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. We use physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative households to analyze distributions of the costs and benefits of three air-to-air heat pump performance levels, with and without insulation upgrades, across the diversity of the US housing stock. We find positive greenhouse gas reductions in every US state for all performance levels across five 2022-2038 electric grid scenarios, with full adoption reducing national emissions by 5%-9%. We find that air-to-air heat pumps could be cost effective without subsidies in 59% of households (65 million). However, efficiency is key: whereas minimum-efficiency equipment could increase energy bills in 39% of households, this fraction is only 19% when also upgrading insulation or 5% when using higher-efficiency equipment, though both strategies have higher upfront costs. Such affordability challenges could be addressed through supportive incentives, policy, and innovation.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Characterization of the acoustic cavitation in ionic liquids in a horn-type ultrasound reactor
Most ultrasound-based processes root in empirical approaches. Because nearly all advances have been conducted in aqueous systems, there exists a paucity of information on sonoprocessing in other solvents, particularly ionic liquids (ILs). In this work, we modelled an ultrasonic horn-type sonoreactor and investigated the effects of ultrasound power, sonotrode immersion depth, and solvent’s thermodynamic properties on acoustic cavitation in nine imidazolium-based and three pyrrolidinium-based ILs. The model accounts for bubbles, acoustic impedance mismatch at interfaces, and treats the ILs as incompressible, Newtonian, and saturated with argon. Following a statistical analysis of the simulation results, we determined that viscosity and ultrasound input power are the most significant variables affecting the intensity of the acoustic pressure field (P), the volume of cavitation zones (V), and the magnitude of the maximum acoustic streaming surface velocity (u). V and u increase with the increase of ultrasound input power and the decrease in viscosity, whereas the magnitude of negative P decreases as ultrasound power and viscosity increase. Probe immersion depth positively correlates with V, but its impact on P and u is insignificant. 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium-based ILs yielded the largest V and the fastest acoustic jets – 0.77cm 3 and 24.4ms -1 for 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride at 60W. 1-methyl-3-(3-sulfopropyl)-imidazolium-based ILs generated the smallest V and lowest u – 0.17cm 3 and 1.7ms -1 for 1-methyl-3-(3-sulfopropyl)-imidazolium p-toluene sulfonate at 20W. Sonochemiluminescence experiments validated the model.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗