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At least 145 records · Page 8

An Adaptive Particle Tracking Algorithm for Lagrangian-Eulerian Simulations of Dispersed Multiphase Flows

The Lagrangian-Eulerian method is broadly used for simulations of dispersed multiphase flows by solving the continuous phase in the Eulerian framework while treating the dispersed phase as point particles in a Lagrangian framework. The accuracy of the Lagrangian-Eulerian method largely depends on the number of computational particles tracked for the Lagrangian phase. In this study, an adaptive Lagrangian particle tracking algorithm is proposed to balance the statistical error and the computational cost by dividing and merging the particles according to the local particle statistics in the computational domain. The computational particles are considered as weighted sampling points of the particle probability density functions (PDF) which represents a statistical equivalence of the Lagrangian phase. The algorithm is implemented as a part of a C++ library for Lagrangian particles, Grit, with performance portability to multi-core or many-core CPUs and Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) architectures. The accuracy of the proposed algorithm with two different schemes are studied through a test problem with analytical solutions for both the particle number density and momentum source term. The results are used to evaluate the proposed algorithm as well as to validate the parallel implementation.

Ge, Wenjun↗

The Correlation between Halo Mass and Stellar Mass for the Most Massive Galaxies in the Universe

We present measurements of the clustering of galaxies as a function of their stellar mass in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. We compare the clustering of samples using 12 different methods for estimating stellar mass, isolating the method that has the smallest scatter at fixed halo mass. In this test, the stellar mass estimate with the smallest errors yields the highest amplitude of clustering at fixed number density. We find that the PCA stellar masses of Chen et al. clearly have the tightest correlation with halo mass. The PCA masses use the full galaxy spectrum, differentiating them from other estimates that only use optical photometric information. Using the PCA masses, we measure the large-scale bias as a function of M{sub ∗} for galaxies with logM{sub ∗}⩾11.4, correcting for incompleteness at the low-mass end of our measurements. Using the abundance matching ansatz to connect dark matter halo mass to stellar mass, we construct theoretical models of b(M{sub ∗}) that match the same stellar mass function but have different amounts of scatter in stellar mass at fixed halo mass, σ{sub logM∗}. Using this approach, we find σ{sub logM∗}=0.18{sub −0.02}{sup +0.01}. This value includes both intrinsic scatter as well as random errors in the stellar masses. To partially remove the latter, we use repeated spectra to estimate statistical errors on the stellar masses, yielding an upper limit to the intrinsic scatter of 0.16 dex.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Large-scale application of free energy perturbation calculations for antibody design

Abstract Alchemical free energy perturbation (FEP) is a rigorous and powerful technique to calculate the free energy difference between distinct chemical systems. Here we report our implementation of automated large-scale FEP calculations, using the Amber software package, to facilitate antibody design and evaluation. In combination with Hamiltonian replica exchange, our FEP simulations aim to predict the effect of mutations on both the binding affinity and the structural stability. Importantly, we incorporate multiple strategies to faithfully estimate the statistical uncertainties in the FEP results. As a case study, we apply our protocols to systematically evaluate variants of the m396 antibody for their conformational stability and their binding affinity to the spike proteins of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2. By properly adjusting relevant parameters, the particle collapse problems in the FEP simulations are avoided. Furthermore, large statistical errors in a small fraction of the FEP calculations are effectively reduced by extending the sampling, such that acceptable statistical uncertainties are achieved for the vast majority of the cases with a modest total computational cost. Finally, our predicted conformational stability for the m396 variants is qualitatively consistent with the experimentally measured melting temperatures. Our work thus demonstrates the applicability of FEP in computational antibody design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a transfer function method for dynamic stability measurement

Flutter testing method based on transfer function measurements is developed. The error statistics of several dynamic stability measurement methods are reviewed. It is shown that the transfer function measurement controls the error level by averaging the data and correlating the input and output. The method also gives a direct estimate of the error in the response measurement. An algorithm is developed for obtaining the natural frequency and damping ratio of low damped modes of the system, using integrals of the transfer function in the vicinity of a resonant peak. Guidelines are given for selecting the parameters in the transfer function measurement. Finally, the dynamic stability measurement technique is applied to data from a wind tunnel test of a proprotor and wing model.

Johnson, W.↗

Absolute Timing of the Crab Pulsar with RXTE

We have monitored the phase of the main X-ray pulse of the Crab pulsar with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) for almost eight years, since the start of the mission in January 1996. The absolute time of RXTE's clock is sufficiently accurate to allow this phase to be compared directly with the radio profile. Our monitoring observations of the pulsar took place bi-weekly (during the periods when it was at least 30 degrees from the Sun) and we correlated the data with radio timing ephemerides derived from observations made at Jodrell Bank. We have determined the phase of the X-ray main pulse for each observation with a typical error in the individual data points of 50 microseconds. The total ensemble is consistent with a phase that is constant over the monitoring period, with the X-ray pulse leading the radio pulse by 0.01025 plus or minus 0.00120 period in phase, or 344 plus or minus 40 microseconds in time. The error estimate is dominated by a systematic error of 40 microseconds, most likely constant, arising from uncertainties in the instrumental calibration of the radio data. The statistical error is 0.00015 period, or 5 microseconds. The separation of the main pulse and interpulse appears to be unchanging at time scales of a year or less, with an average value of 0.4001 plus or minus 0.0002 period. There is no apparent variation in these values with energy over the 2-30 keV range. The lag between the radio and X-ray pulses ma be constant in phase (i.e., rotational in nature) or constant in time (i.e., due to a pathlength difference). We are not (yet) able to distinguish between these two interpretations.

Rots, Arnold H.↗

Scout trajectory error propagation computer program

Since 1969, flight experience has been used as the basis for predicting Scout orbital accuracy. The data used for calculating the accuracy consists of errors in the trajectory parameters (altitude, velocity, etc.) at stage burnout as observed on Scout flights. Approximately 50 sets of errors are used in Monte Carlo analysis to generate error statistics in the trajectory parameters. A covariance matrix is formed which may be propagated in time. The mechanization of this process resulted in computer program Scout Trajectory Error Propagation (STEP) and is described herein. Computer program STEP may be used in conjunction with the Statistical Orbital Analysis Routine to generate accuracy in the orbit parameters (apogee, perigee, inclination, etc.) based upon flight experience.

Myler, T. R.↗

Use of an OSSE to Evaluate Background Error Covariances Estimated by the 'NMC Method'

The NMC method has proven utility for prescribing approximate background-error covariances required by variational data assimilation systems. Here, untunedNMCmethod estimates are compared with explicitly determined error covariances produced within an OSSE context by exploiting availability of the true simulated states. Such a comparison provides insights into what kind of rescaling is required to render the NMC method estimates usable. It is shown that rescaling of variances and directional correlation lengths depends greatly on both pressure and latitude. In particular, some scaling coefficients appropriate in the Tropics are the reciprocal of those in the Extratropics. Also, the degree of dynamic balance is grossly overestimated by the NMC method. These results agree with previous examinations of the NMC method which used ensembles as an alternative for estimating background-error statistics.

Data Assimilation↗

Investigation of Error Patterns in Geographical Databases

The objective of the research conducted in this project is to develop a methodology to investigate the accuracy of Airport Safety Modeling Data (ASMD) using statistical, visualization, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques. Such a methodology can contribute to answering the following research questions: Over a representative sampling of ASMD databases, can statistical error analysis techniques be accurately learned and replicated by ANN modeling techniques? This representative ASMD sample should include numerous airports and a variety of terrain characterizations. Is it possible to identify and automate the recognition of patterns of error related to geographical features? Do such patterns of error relate to specific geographical features, such as elevation or terrain slope? Is it possible to combine the errors in small regions into an error prediction for a larger region? What are the data density reduction implications of this work? ASMD may be used as the source of terrain data for a synthetic visual system to be used in the cockpit of aircraft when visual reference to ground features is not possible during conditions of marginal weather or reduced visibility. In this research, United States Geologic Survey (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) data has been selected as the benchmark. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS) have been used and tested as alternate methods in place of the statistical methods in similar problems. They often perform better in pattern recognition, prediction and classification and categorization problems. Many studies show that when the data is complex and noisy, the accuracy of ANN models is generally higher than those of comparable traditional methods.

Dryer, David↗

Simulation of Statistical Fluctuations in the Spin Precession Measurements at RHIC

Measurements of the driven spin coherent precession S x (t)=S x (0) - S x (1) sin(ωt+φ 0 ) were initiated in RHIC Run13. The expected value of the precession amplitude S x (1) ~ 2 x 10 -4 is about the statistical error in a single measurement and data fit gives a biased estimate of the S x (1) . For a proper statistical interpretation of the results of the several measurements, statistical fluctuations were studied using Monte-Carlo simulation. Preliminary results of the spin precession measurements in RHIC Run13 are presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Augmented burst-error correction for UNICON laser memory

A single-burst-error correction system is described for data stored in the UNICON laser memory. In the proposed system, a long fire code with code length n greater than 16,768 bits was used as an outer code to augment an existing inner shorter fire code for burst error corrections. The inner fire code is a (80,64) code shortened from the (630,614) code, and it is used to correct a single-burst-error on a per-word basis with burst length b less than or equal to 6. The outer code, with b less than or equal to 12, would be used to correct a single-burst-error on a per-page basis, where a page consists of 512 32-bit words. In the proposed system, the encoding and error detection processes are implemented by hardware. A minicomputer, currently used as a UNICON memory management processor, is used on a time-demanding basis for error correction. Based upon existing error statistics, this combination of an inner code and an outer code would enable the UNICON system to obtain a very low error rate in spite of flaws affecting the recorded data.

Lim, R. S.↗

Optimization of a triple etalon interferometer

The High Resolution Doppler Image (HRDI) is a triple etalon Fabry-Perot interferometer designed to measure Doppler shifts of rotational lines in the O2 atmospheric system from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. These shifts are used to determine wind vectors in the stratosphere and mesosphere. This paper presents the techniques used to determine the gap thicknesses and reflectivities of the three etalons of the HRDI instrument. The spacings are found to be 1.000, 0.186, and 0.025 cm. These spacings are independent of the reflectivity of the etalons. The reflectivities of the three etalons should be nearly equal to minimize the errors in the wind measurement caused by mistuning of the etalons. The choice of the reflectivity does not strongly influence the statistical error in the wind error when the values are less than about 0.90.

Skinner, Wilbert R.↗

Update on a short-distance $D^0$-meson mixing calculation with $N_f=2+1$ flavors

We present an update on our calculation of the short-distance $D^0$-meson mixing hadronic matrix elements. The analysis is performed on the MILC collaboration's $N_f=2+1$ asqtad configurations. We use asqtad light valence quarks and the Sheikoleslami-Wohlert action with the Fermilab interpretation for the valence charm quark. SU(3), partially quenched, rooted, staggered heavy-meson chiral perturbation theory is used to extrapolate to the chiral-continuum limit. Systematic errors arising from the chiral-continuum extrapolation, heavy-quark discretization, and quark-mass uncertainties are folded into the statistical errors from the chiral-continuum fits with methods of Bayesian inference. A preliminary error budget for all five operators is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm for GLM

A Bayesian inversion method is introduced for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in a set of N lightning observed by a satellite lightning imager (such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, GLM). An exponential model is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured lightning optical parameter distributions. Population statistics (i.e., the mean and variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is employed. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The approach is feasible for N greater than 2000, and retrieval errors decrease as N is increased.

Koshak, William J.↗

Recommendations for Using Noise Monitors to Estimate Noise Exposure During X-59 Community Tests

A low fidelity simulation approach is used to explore how to place and use noise monitors during X-59 QueSST community tests, where people’s annoyance to the noise produced by the X-59 aircraft will be gathered. Several recommendations are provided including: 1) the desired number of sparsely spaced noise monitor sites within the survey area, 2) whether to group and average measurements across multiple noise monitors located at a site, 3) what spacing should be used if grouped noise monitors are used, 4) an approach to mitigate ambient noise contamination at the measurement sites, 5) a method to combine empirical and predicted dose estimates to provide a single dose estimate for respondents, and 6) assessing how changes in turbulence intensity and array configuration affect dose uncertainty. To make these recommendations, the error that is expected when fitting contrived, smoothly varying sonic boom “reference exposure surfaces” is studied when a spatially sparse and scattered set of samples is used as responses for the fit. The reference exposure surfaces mimic the sonic boom exposure at ground level that might be expected in the X-59 survey area in the absence of atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise, and other localized effects. The spatial extent of these surfaces varies and is representative of the different survey area sizes that might be expected during future X-59 community overflight tests. These contrived reference surfaces are sampled, and those reference samples are then perturbed to mimic atmospheric turbulence, ambient noise and other localized effects that might affect noise monitor measurements within overflown communities. Two different surface fitting methods are investigated when fitting these perturbed samples to approximate the reference surface. The first method uses interpolation between the perturbed data at the scattered sites to compute the fit. The second method fits a polynomial surface model to the perturbed data using ordinary least squares regression analysis. For both fitting methods, the root mean square fit error is computed from the pointwise difference between the fit surface and the reference surface as the count and configuration of the sites is varied while also averaging the error across many different realizations of both the smooth variation of the reference exposure surface and the random, localized perturbations at the sample sites. Different site configurations are compared using this error statistic to make the recommendations noted above. Additionally, the two fitting approaches (interpolation vs linear regression) are compared based on the fit error observed in these simulations. These analyses, comparisons, and recommendations should inform future decisions on the noise monitor placement and the methods used to analyze the noise monitor data that is collected during X-59 community overflights.

sonic boom↗

Lensing without borders – I. A blind comparison of the amplitude of galaxy–galaxy lensing between independent imaging surveys

ABSTRACT Lensing without borders is a cross-survey collaboration created to assess the consistency of galaxy–galaxy lensing signals (ΔΣ) across different data sets and to carry out end-to-end tests of systematic errors. We perform a blind comparison of the amplitude of ΔΣ using lens samples from BOSS and six independent lensing surveys. We find good agreement between empirically estimated and reported systematic errors which agree to better than 2.3σ in four lens bins and three radial ranges. For lenses with zL > 0.43 and considering statistical errors, we detect a 3–4σ correlation between lensing amplitude and survey depth. This correlation could arise from the increasing impact at higher redshift of unrecognized galaxy blends on shear calibration and imperfections in photometric redshift calibration. At zL > 0.54, amplitudes may additionally correlate with foreground stellar density. The amplitude of these trends is within survey-defined systematic error budgets that are designed to include known shear and redshift calibration uncertainty. Using a fully empirical and conservative method, we do not find evidence for large unknown systematics. Systematic errors greater than 15 per cent (25 per cent) ruled out in three lens bins at 68 per cent (95 per cent) confidence at z < 0.54. Differences with respect to predictions based on clustering are observed to be at the 20–30 per cent level. Our results therefore suggest that lensing systematics alone are unlikely to fully explain the ‘lensing is low’ effect at z < 0.54. This analysis demonstrates the power of cross-survey comparisons and provides a promising path for identifying and reducing systematics in future lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of Variance Reduction Techniques in RMC Burnup and Thermal-Hydraulic Coupled Calculation

In reactor analog simulation, the Monte Carlo method has relatively high fidelity since it can reduce calculation errors resulting from using approximation methods by describing complex geometry and neutron energy spectra. The Monte Carlo method is, in essence, a stochastic simulation of the neutron transport process, and statistical uncertainty of all the computed results must be provided. In large-scale reactor computation, this method can accurately estimate integral quantities such as the effective multiplication factor (K{sub eff}), and it can limit the uncertainty within an acceptable range via reasonably selecting simulation particles. Nevertheless, it faces great challenges in estimating local quantities like neutron flux and fission power, with uncertainty of estimators beyond acceptance. To decrease the uncertainty of local quantities by increasing simulation particles may cost much time and reduce efficiency. The main reasons are as follows. Firstly, the scale of reactors is so large that common pressurized water reactors have tens of thousands of lattice cells; secondly, uneven distribution of neutron flux and fission power causes uneven distribution of uncertainty. Smith K. puts forward the 95/95 principle to estimate whether uncertainty calculated with Monte Carlo Code satisfies the requirement. According to the principle, with a confidence level of 95%, statistical errors of power density in more than 95% of the regions should be less than 1%. To meet the requirement of the principle, the uniform fission site (UFS) method is raised currently. UFS aims at redistributing fission sources to uniformize the fission source sampling, which can make statistical variance distribution more uniform. This method, which is easy to use, will not obviously increase computation time. Many studies show that UFS has a good variance reduction effect in Monte Carlo criticality calculation, but less attention is paid to its performance in burnup calculation and thermal-hydraulic coupled calculation. Uncertainty arising from the Monte Carlo method has a large impact on burnup calculation and thermal-hydraulic coupled calculation. Variance propagates between burnup steps and between iterative steps of coupled calculation, which causes asymmetry of results of the physical symmetrical regions and instability of coupled iterative convergence errors. To further verify the effect of UFS, this study uses it in the RMC (the Reactor Monte Carlo code) burnup calculation module and the neutronics/thermohydraulics coupled calculation module, and conducts two-dimensional pressurized water reactor burnup calculation and BEAVRS benchmark thermalhydraulic coupled calculation. In this way, it verifies the improvement effect of UFS on variance propagation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗

Calculating the free energy of transfer of small solutes into a model lipid membrane: Comparison between metadynamics and umbrella sampling

We compare the performance of two well-established computational algorithms for the calculation of free-energy landscapes of biomolecular systems, umbrella sampling and metadynamics. We look at benchmark systems composed of polyethylene and polypropylene oligomers interacting with lipid (phosphatidylcholine) membranes, aiming at the calculation of the oligomer water-membrane free energy of transfer. We model our test systems at two different levels of description, united-atom and coarse-grained. We provide optimized parameters for the two methods at both resolutions. We devote special attention to the analysis of statistical errors in the two different methods and propose a general procedure for the error estimation in metadynamics simulations. Metadynamics and umbrella sampling yield the same estimates for the water-membrane free energy profile, but metadynamics can be more efficient, providing lower statistical uncertainties within the same simulation time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗