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NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Surface Heat Flux as a Function of Ground Cover for Climate Models

Surface heat fluxes were examined as a function of surface properties and meteorological conditions in a 100 km x 100 km grid square at 1-km spatial resolution centered at the location of the First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE), the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics site in central Maine, and a semiarid rangeland site around Walnut Gulch, Arizona. This investigation treats the surface heat flux variability within a GCM grid box to provide insight into methods for treating that variability in climate models. The heat fluxes were calculated using NOAA AVHRR and available meteorological data. The average heat fluxes that were estimated using the various area ground-cover representations were compared with the ensemble average heat fluxes for the entire area, which were assumed to be the best representation of the heat fluxes for the areas. Average beat fluxes were estimated for the entire 100 km x 100 km area based on a single ground-cover representation, and the mean error for the area sensible heat flux was about 10% and for the area latent heat flux, 21%. The estimation error was reduced, and in some cases significantly reduced, when the area heat fluxes were estimated by partitioning the area according to significant ground cover. The most significant effect of the partitioning was on the latent heat flux estimates.

Vukovich, Fred M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Jaegle, Lyatt↗

NASA NTRS1995

The mesoscale forcing of a midlatitude upper-tropospheric jet streak by a simulated convective system. 2: Kinetic energy and resolution analysis

A kinetic energy (KE) analysis of the forcing of a mesoscale upper-tropospheric jet streak by organized diabatic processes within the simulated convective system (SCS) that was discussed in Part 1 is presented in this study. The relative contributions of the ageostrophic components of motion to the generation of KE of the convectively generated jet streak are compared, along with the KE generation by the rotational (nondivergent) and irrotational (divergent) mass transport. The sensitivity of the numerical simulations of SCS development to resolution is also briefly examined. Analysis within isentropic coordinates provides for an explicit determination of the influence of the diabatic processes on the generation of KE. The upper-level production of specific KE is due predominatly to the inertial advective ageostrophic component (IAD), and as such represents the primary process through which the KE of the convectively generated jet streak is realized. A secondary contribution by the inertial diabatic (IDI) term is observed. Partitioning the KE generation into its rotational and irrotational components reveals that the latter, which is directly linked to the diabatic heating within the SCS through isentropic continuity requirements, is the ultimate source of KE generation as the global area integral of generation by the rotational component vanishes. Comparison with an identical dry simulation reveals that the net generation of KE must be attributed to latent heating. Both the IAD and IDI ageostrophic components play important roles in this regard. Examination of results from simulations conducted at several resolutions supports the previous findings in that the effects of diabatic processes and ageostrophic motion on KE generation remain consistent. Resolution does impact the location and timing of SCS development, a result that has important implications in forecasting the onset of convection that develops from evolution of the large-scale flow and moisture transport. Marked differences are observed in the momentum field aloft subsequent to the life cycle of the SCS in the 1 deg, 30-level base case (MP130) simulation discussed in Part 1 versus its 2 deg counterparts in that the MP130 simulation with higher spatial resolution contains from 14% to 30% more total KE.

Wolf, Bart J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Surface Energy Heat Fluxes Using Remotely Sensed Parameters

Realistic estimates of surface energy heat fluxes are needed for the study of water and energy interactions between the land and atmosphere. The primary objective of this work is to study the estimation of surface heat energy fluxes using remote sensing derived parameters under different spatial and temporal conditions. Surface energy fluxes and remote sensing derived data from two sources were analyzed. First, we used surface heat flux, remote sensing, and ancillary data from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), mapped at a 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid. Second, we used NOAA AVHRR (1 km), weather station, and ancillary data to derive estimates of surface latent and sensible heat energy fluxes over a 100 sq kilometers area for three test sites: 1) First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) grassland site, Konza Prairie, Kansas; 2) Howland, Maine Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Site; and 3) Walnut Gulch, scrubland site, surrounding Tombstone, Arizona. Satellite derived estimates of land surface temperature, surface albedo, and spectral vegetation index are used in selected models to provide estimates of surface heat fluxes. Analysis of results from the 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for North America indicated there were similar, overall correlations between sensible and latent heat energy fluxes versus remotely sensed vegetation index and ground temperature during dry and wet year conditions. However, there were significant differences in correlations between years when stratified by land cover class. Analysis of 100 km x 100 km data (1 km resolution) indicated partitioning the areas in to primary versus secondary cover, with the secondary cover comprising less than 5% of the area, significantly improved surface heat energy flux estimates.

Toll, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Secondary Inorganic Aerosols in Three Dimensions

The spatial distribution of aerosols and their chemical composition dictates whether aerosols have a cooling or a warming effect on the climate system. Hence, properly modeling the three-dimensional distribution of aerosols is a crucial step for coherent climate simulations. Since surface measurement networks only give 2-D data, and most satellites supply integrated column information, it is thus important to integrate aircraft measurements in climate model evaluations. In this study, the vertical distribution of secondary inorganic aerosol (i.e., sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate) is evaluated against a collection of 14 AMS flight campaigns and surface measurements from 2000 to 2010 in the USA and Europe. GISS ModelE2 is used with multiple aerosol microphysics (MATRIX, OMA) and thermodynamic (ISORROPIA II, EQSAM) configurations. Our results show that the MATRIX microphysical scheme improves the model performance for sulfate, but that there is a systematic underestimation of ammonium and nitrate over the USA and Europe in all model configurations. In terms of gaseous precursors, nitric acid concentrations are largely underestimated at the surface while overestimated in the higher levels of the model. Heterogeneous reactions on dust surfaces are an important sink for nitric acid, even high in the troposphere. At high altitudes, nitrate formation is calculated to be ammonia limited. The underestimation of ammonium and nitrate in polluted regions is most likely caused by a too simplified treatment of the NH3/NH4(+) partitioning which affects the HNO3/NO3(-) partitioning.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗

NASA NTRS2011

Drop Size Distribution Measurements Supporting the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission: Infrastructure and Preliminary Results

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets that characterize the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (5 -- 50 km). Key to this process is the combined use of disdrometer and polarimetric radar platforms. Here the disdrometer measurements serve as a reference for up-scaling dual-polarimetric radar observations of the PSD to the much larger volumetric sampling domain of the radar. The PSD observations thus derived provide a much larger data set for assessing DSD variability, and satellite-based precipitation retrieval algorithm assumptions, in all three spatial dimensions for a range of storm types and seasons. As one component of this effort, the GPM Ground Validation program recently acquired five 3rd generation 2D Video disdrometers as part of its Disdrometer and Radar Observations of Precipitation Facility (DROP), currently hosted in northern Alabama by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. These next-generation 2DVDs were operated and evaluated in different phases of data collection under the scanning domain of the UAH ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. During this period approximately 7500 minutes of PSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSDs were then used as input to T-matrix code for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. The combined dataset was then analyzed with two basic objectives in mind: 1) the investigation of seasonal variability in the rain PSD parameters as observed by the 2DVDs; 2) the use of combined polarimetric moments and observed gamma distribution parameters in a functional form to retrieve PSD parameters in 4-D using the ARMOR radar for precipitation occurring in different seasons and for different rain system types. Preliminary results suggest that seasonal variations in the DSD parameters do occur, but are most pronounced when comparing tropical PSDs to either winter or summer convective precipitation. For example the previously documented shift to relatively smaller drop diameters in higher number concentrations for equivalent rain rate bins was observed in tropical storm rainbands occurring over Huntsville. On a more inter seasonal basis empirical fits between parameters such as D0 and ZDR do not appear to exhibit robust seasonal biases- i.e., one fit seems to work for all seasons within acceptable standard error (O[10%]) for estimates of D0. In polarimetric retrievals of the vertical variability in PSD (rain layer) for a tropical rainband we find that the Do varies with height when partitioned by specified precipitation categories (e.g., convective or stratiform, heavy and light stratiform etc.) but this variation is of order 10-20% and is smaller than the difference in D0 observed between the basic delineation of convective and stratiform precipitation types. Currently we are expanding our analysis of the vertical structure of the PSD to include several seasonally and/or dynamically-different storm system types (e.g., winter convection and stratiform events; summer mid-latitude convective etc.) sampled by ARMOR. The study will present the results of our combined analyses.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Relating a Spectral Index from MODIS and Tower-based Measurements to Ecosystem Light Use Efficiency for a Fluxnet-Canada Coniferous Forest

As part of the North American Carbon Program effort to quantify the terrestrial carbon budget of North America, we have been examining the possibility of retrieving ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE, the carbon sequestered per unit photosynthetically active radiation) directly from satellite observations. Our novel approach has been to compare LUE derived from tower fluxes with LUE estimated using spectral indices computed from MODIS satellite observations over forests in the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network, using the MODIS narrow ocean bands acquired over land. We matched carbon flux data collected around the time of the MODIS mid-day overpass for over one hundred relatively clear days in five years (2001-2006) from a mature Douglas fir forest in British Columbia. We also examined hyperspectral reflectance data collected diurnally from the tower in conjunction with the eddy correlation fluxes and meteorological measurements made throughout the 2006 growing season at this site. The tower-based flux data provided an opportunity to examine diurnal and seasonal LUE processes and their relationship to spectral indices at the scale of the forest stand. We evaluated LUE in conjunction with the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), a normalized difference spectral index that uses 531 nm and a reference band to capture responses to high light induced stress afforded by the xanthophyll cycle. Canopy structure information, retrieved from airborne laser scanning radar (LiDAR) observations, was used to partition the forest canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions throughout the day, on numerous days during 2006. At each observation period throughout a day, the PRI was examined for the sunlit, shaded, and intermediate canopy segments defined by their instantaneous position relative to the solar principal plane (SPP). The sunlit sector was associated with the illumination "hotspot" (the reflectance backscatter maximum), the shaded sector with the "cold or dark spot" (the reflectance forward scatter minimum), while the intermediate, mixed sunlit/shade sector was located in the cross-plane to the SPP. The PRI indices clearly captured the differences in leaf groups, with sunlit foliage exhibiting the lowest values on sunny days throughout the 2006 season. When tower-based canopy-level LUE was recalculated to estimate foliage-based values (LUE(sub foilage) for the three foliage groups under their incident light environments, a strong linear relationship for PRI:LUE(sub foilage) was demonstrated (0.6 less than or equal to r(sup 2) less than or equal to 0.8, n=822, P<0.0001). The MODIS data represent relatively large areas when acquired at nadir (approx.1 sq km) or at variable off-nadir view angles (greater than or equal to 1 sq km) looking forward or aft. Nevertheless, a similar relationship between MODIS PRI and tower-based LUE was obtained from satellite observations (r(sup 2) = 0.76, n=105, P= 0.026) when the azimuth offsets from the SPP for off-nadir observations were considered. At this relatively high latitude of 50 degrees, the MODIS directional observations were offset from the SPP by approximately 50 degrees, but still represented backscatter or forward scatter sectors of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The backscatter observations sampled the sunlit forest and provided lower PRI values, in general, than the forward scatter observations from the shaded forest. Since the hotspot and darkspot were not typically directly observed, the dynamic range for MODIS PRI was less than that observed in the SPP at the canopy level; therefore, MODIS PRI values were more similar to those observed in sifu in the BRDF cross-plane. While not ideal in terms of spatial resolution or optimal viewing configuration, the MODIS observations nevertheless provide a means to monitor forest under stress using narrow spectral band indices and off-nadir observations. This research has stimulated several spin-off studies for remote sensinf LUE, and demonstrates the importance of the connection between ecosystem structure and physiological function.

Middleton, Elizabeth M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Oxidation States of Grim Glasses in EET79001 Based on Vanadium Valence

Gas-rich impact-melt (GRIM) glasses in SNC meteorites are very rich in Martian atmospheric noble gases and sulfur suggesting a possible occurrence of regolith-derived secondary mineral assemblages in these samples. Previously, we have studied two GRIM glasses, 506 and 507, from EET79001 Lith A and Lith B, respectively, for elemental abundances and spatial distribution of sulfur using EMPA (WDS) and FE-SEM (EDS) techniques and for sulfur-speciation using K-edge XANES techniques. These elemental and FE-SEM micro-graph data at several locations in the GRIM glasses from Shergotty (DBS), Zagami 994 and EET79001, Lith B showed that FeO and SO3 are positively correlated (SO3 represents a mixture of sulfide and sulfate). FE-SEM (EDS) study revealed that the sulfur-rich pockets in these glasses contain numerous micron-sized iron-sulfide (Fe-S) globules sequestered throughout the volume. However, in some areas (though less frequently), we detected significant Fe-S-O signals suggesting the occurrence of iron sulfate. These GRIM glasses were studied by K-edge microXANES techniques for sulfur speciation in association with iron in sulfur-rich areas. In both samples, we found the sulfur speciation dominated by sulfide with minor oxidized sulfur mixed in with various proportions. The abundance of oxidized sulfur was greater in 506 than in 507. Based on these results, we hypothesize that sulfur initially existed as sulfate in the glass precursor materials and, on shock-impact melting of the precursor materials producing these glasses, the oxidized sulfur was reduced to predominately sulfide. In order to further test this hypothesis, we have used microXANES to measure the valence states of vanadium in GRIM glasses from Lith A and Lith B to complement and compare with previous analogous measurements on Lith C (note: 506 and 507 contain the largest amounts of martian atmospheric gases but the gas-contents in Lith C measured by are unknown). Vanadium is ideal for addressing this re-dox issue because it has multiple valence states and is a well-studied element. Ferrous-dominated iron valences determined by microXANES on the Lith A and Lith B glasses provide little redox sensitivity. Vanadium valence measurements for impact glass in Lith C at three different locations yielded valence values of 3.1, 3.2 and 3.4 with inferred fO2 values of IW-0.7, IW-0.1 and IW+0.7, respectively. This range of oxygen-fugacity values is understandable because the glasses are shock-molten impact glasses which are heterogeneous in nature. Oxygen fugacity values obtained from the analysis of Fe-Ti oxides and Eu partitioning in pyroxenes from EET79001 Lith A and Lith B (host lithologies) were in the range of IW+0.3 to IW+1.9 suggesting that V in the Lith C impact glass was reduced in the impact process. Here, we examine whether the 506 from Lith A and 507 from Lith B GRIM glasses yield similar or different fO2 values from those of Lith C using the vanadium K-edge microXANES technique.

Sutton, S. R.↗