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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1973

A correlative study of SSC's, interplanetary shocks, and solar activity

A total of 93 SSC's were examined during the four year period from 1968 to 1971 at and near the peak of the solar activity cycle. Of the 93 SSC's 81 could be associated with solar activity, such as solar flares and radio bursts of Type II and Type IV. The mean propagation speeds of these flare-associated events ranged from 400 to 1000 km/sec with an average speed of 600-700 km/sec. Disturbances associated with 48 of the SSC's have been studied in detail using the corresponding interplanetary (IP) magnetic field, and plasma data when they were available. It was found that 41 of the 48 disturbances corresponded to IP shock waves, and the remaining seven events were tangential discontinuities. Thirty percent of the IP shocks had thick structure (i.e. the magnetic field jump across the shock occurred over a distance much greater than 50 proton Larmor radii). Also given is a statistical study of the gross geometry of a typical or average shock surface based on multiple spacecraft sightings and their relative orientation with respect to the solar flare. It is suggested that a typical shock front propagating out from the sun at l AU has a radius of curvature on the order of l AU. Also given are some general properties of oblique IP flare-shocks.

Chao, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1963

Indices of solar activity, appendix 6

Indices of solar & geomagnetic activity, variation of earth magnetic field in time & space, & field variation in magnetic storm

SOLAR ACTIVITY EFFECT↗
NASA NTRS1973

Method and apparatus for measuring solar activity and atmospheric radiation effects

A radiometric measuring system is described for observing solar activity, atmospheric attenuation, and atmospheric emission. Two highly directional microwave antennas are mounted side by-side on an equatorial mount which tracks the sun. One antenna is aimed directly at the sun to provide a sun temperature, and the other antenna is aimed at a slight angle to the sun antenna to provide a sky temperature reference. Signals from the two antennas are compared in a radiometric detecting system and provide information concerning solar activity and atmospheric attenuation and emission.

Haroules, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Are Solar Activity Variations Amplified by the QBO: A Modeling Study

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle. It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes and is referred to as 'downward control'. Small changes in the solar radiative forcing may produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but these in turn may produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is small. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing acts as a strong pacemaker to lock up the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with a different QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase. These amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. The SCAE in this case extends to mid-latitudes.

Mengel, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Influence of solar activity upon light curves of comets P/Halley (1986 3) and P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (1982 8)

It is shown that the comet P/Halley's (1986 3) total magnitudes correlate with changes in the solar activity indices and the solar wind velocity. A statistically reliable correlation between the outbursts of brightness and magnitude variations of the short-period comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko (1982 8) and the level of the solar activity has been discovered.

Churyumov, Klim I.↗
NASA NTRS1973

An analysis of the solar-activity effects in the upper atmosphere

A study of the upper-atmosphere variations induced by solar activity was made by using 29,574 densities derived from the drag of 10 satellites in the interval 1958-1971. In a comparison of the respective merits of the Ca II-plage index and the 10.7 cm solar flux to represent the erratic ('27 day') component of the variation, the latter is shown to give invariably better results. The ratio of the temperature variations to the variations of the decimetric flux is shown to vary considerably with solar activity, but little with height or with local solar time. The time lag of the atmospheric variations behind those of the decimetric flux varies from a minimum of 0.9 day at noon to 1.6 days at midnight.

Jacchia, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS1973

An analysis of the solar-activity effects in the upper atmosphere.

A study of the upper-atmosphere variations induced by solar activity was made by using 29,574 densities derived from the drag of ten satellites in the interval from 1958 to 1971. In a comparison of the respective merits of the Ca II plage index and the 10.7-cm solar flux to represent the erratic (27-day) component of the variation, the latter is shown to give invariably better results. The ratio of the temperature variations to the variations of the decimetric flux is shown to vary considerably with solar activity, but little with height or with local solar time. The time lag of the atmospheric variations behind those of the decimetric flux varies from a minimum of 0.9 day at noon to 1.6 days at midnight.

Jacchia, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Nonlinear techniques for forecasting solar activity directly from its time series

Numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series are presented. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical invariants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), given a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Initiation of non-tropical thunderstorms by solar activity

Correlative evidence accumulating since 1926 suggests that there must be some physical coupling mechanism between solar activity and thunderstorm occurrence in middle to high latitudes. Such a link may be provided by alteration of atmospheric electric parameters through the combined influence of high-energy solar protons and decreased cosmic ray intensities, both of which are associated with active solar events. The protons produce excess ionization near and above 20km, while the Forbush decreases a lowered conductivity and enhanced fair-weather atmospheric electric field below that altitude. Consequent effects ultimately lead to a charge distribution similar to that found in thunderclouds, and then other cloud physics processes take over to generate the intense electric fields required for lightning discharge.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solar activity and its relation to certain parameters of phenomena in the geophysical complex

Results of a detailed analysis of solar activity in 1957-1965 are compared with the data on solar activity with variations of cosmic ray activity, and geomagnetic, ionospheric and terrestrial currents. Cosmic ray variations are investigated with reference to the asymmetry of solar hemispheres. All storms in the IGY are classified and a symbolic diagram of the time sequence is drawn up.

Razmadze, T. S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relatively new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Heliosphere Through the Solar Activity Cycle

Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun the heliosphere has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors describe the rise in solar ESA and NASA have now unamiously agreed a third extension to operate the highly successful Ulysses spacecraft until March 2008 and, in 2007 and 2008, the European-built space probe will fly over the poles of the Sun for a third time. This will enable Ulysses to add an important chapter to its survey of the high-latitude heliosphere and this additional material would be included in a 2nd edition of this book.

Balogh, A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term persistence of solar activity

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise, random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD. We find a constant Hurst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths.

Ruzmaikin, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2016

ON THE NON-KOLMOGOROV NATURE OF FLARE-PRODUCTIVE SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from 2011 August to 2012 July. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study the evolution of the magnetic power index as each region rotates across the solar disk. Active regions are classified based on the numbers and sizes of solar flares they produce in order to study the relationship between flare productivity and the magnetic power index. The choice of window size and inertial range plays a key role in determining the correct magnetic power index. The overall distribution of magnetic power indices has a range of 1.0–2.5. Flare-quiet regions peak at a value of 1.6. However, flare-productive regions peak at a value of 2.2. Overall, the histogram of the distribution of power indices of flare-productive active regions is well separated from flare-quiet active regions. Only 12% of flare-quiet regions exhibit an index greater than 2, whereas 90% of flare-productive regions exhibit an index greater than 2. Flare-quiet regions exhibit a high temporal variance (i.e., the index fluctuates between high and low values), whereas flare-productive regions maintain an index greater than 2 for several days. This shows the importance of including the temporal evolution of active regions in flare prediction studies, and highlights the potential of a 2–3 day prediction window for space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Recurrence of solar activity - Evidence for active longitudes

It is pointed out that the autocorrelation coefficients of the daily Wolf sunspot numbers over a period of 128 years reveal a number of interesting features of the variability of solar activity. Besides establishing periodicities for the solar rotation, solar activity cycle, and, perhaps, the 'Gleissberg Cycle', they suggest that active longitudes do exist, but with much greater strength and persistence in some solar cycles than in others. Evidence is adduced for a variation in the solar rotation period, as measured by sunspot number, of as much as two days between different solar cycles.

Bogart, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Simulations of magnetic-flux transport in solar active regions

The evolution of several observed solar active regions is simulated by solving a transport equation for magnetic flux at the photosphere. The rates of rotation, meridional flow, and diffusion of the flux are determined self-consistently in the calculations. The findings are in good quantitative agreement with previous measures of the rotation rate and diffusion constant associated with photospheric magnetic fields. Although the meridional velocities are consistent in direction and magnitude with recently reported poleward flows, relatively large uncertainties in the velocity determinations make this result inconclusive.

Devore, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Energy balance in solar active regions - The dip of April, 1985

The presence of a solar active region affects the luminosity of the sun. Sunspots directly produce 'dips' in the total solar irradiance approximately proportionally to their projected area, while faculae produce excess energy. These effects were discovered during the solar maximum period of 1980, and the sunspot effect during solar minimum is examined. The 'dip' due to an active region in April, 1985, as observed in the total solar irradiance by the ACRIM instrument on the Solar Maximum Mission is examined. These data (obtained after the spacecraft repair in May, 1984) have simple variations, relative to those observed in 1980, because of the reduced level of activity approaching solar minimum. It is found that the PSI index of projected sunspot area as defined in 1980 appears to describe this 'dip' satisfactorily.

Hudson, H. S.↗