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DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

On the balance of stresses in the plasma sheet.

The stress resulting from magnetic tension on the neutral sheet must, in a steady state, be balanced by any one or a combination of (1) a pressure gradient in the direction along the axis of the tail, (2) a similar gradient of plasma flow kinetic energy, and (3) the tension resulting from a pressure anisotropy within the plasma sheet. Stress balance in the first two cases requires that the ratios h/LX and BZ/BX be of the same order of magnitude, where h is the half-thickness of the neutral sheet, LX is the length scale for variations along the axis of the tail, and BZ and BX are the magnetic field components in the plasma sheet just outside the neutral sheet. The second case requires, in addition, that the plasma flow speed within the neutral sheet be of the order of or larger than the Alfven speed outside the neutral sheet. Stress balance in the third case requires that just outside the neutral sheet the plasma pressure obey the marginal firehose stability condition.

Rich, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Calculations of axisymmetric vortex sheet roll-up using a panel and a filament model

A method for calculating the self-induced motion of a vortex sheet using discrete vortex elements is presented. Vortex panels and vortex filaments are used to simulate two-dimensional and axisymmetric vortex sheet roll-up. A straight forward application using vortex elements to simulate the motion of a disk of vorticity with an elliptic circulation distribution yields unsatisfactroy results where the vortex elements move in a chaotic manner. The difficulty is assumed to be due to the inability of a finite number of discrete vortex elements to model the singularity at the sheet edge and due to large velocity calculation errors which result from uneven sheet stretching. A model of the inner portion of the spiral is introduced to eliminate the difficulty with the sheet edge singularity. The model replaces the outermost portion of the sheet with a single vortex of equivalent circulation and a number of higher order terms which account for the asymmetry of the spiral. The resulting discrete vortex model is applied to both two-dimensional and axisymmetric sheets. The two-dimensional roll-up is compared to the solution for a semi-infinite sheet with good results.

Kantelis, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ion tearing in a magnetotail configuration with an embedded thin current sheet

The ion tearing instability is investigated in a magnetotail configuration that consists of a diffuse plasma sheet current and an embedded, thin current sheet with a strong current. For historical reasons, the thin embedded current sheet will be called a 'neutral sheet', even though the normal component of the magnetic field, Bn, is nonzero. In particular, we assume that the current within the thin current sheet is due to the acceleration of 'Speiserlike' ion trajectories by a cross-tail electric field Ey. It is found that the strong current within the neutral sheet is essentially unimportant to the growth rate of the tearing instability, and that the growth rate scales as (lambda(0)/Lz) squared, where Lz is the overall half thickness of the plasma sheet and lambda (0) is the ion inertial length. In the absence of the current outside the neutral sheet, current filamentation is stable.

Burkhart, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Inferring global characteristics of current sheet from local measurements

A new procedure to extract global characteristics of a current sheet based on local measurements of magnetic field, plasma, and current density from a single spacecraft is described. By adopting suitable current density profiles, this method permits an estimate of the following parameters: (1) the asymptotic magnetic field strength outside the current sheet, (2) the north-south thickness of the current sheet, (3) the spacecraft distance from the center of the current sheet, (4) the magnetic field line curvature at the center of the current sheet, (5) the volume current density at the center of the current sheet, (6) the integrated current density across the thickness of the current sheet, and (7) the kappa parameter used by many researchers in the study of particle orbits in a current sheet geometry.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Theoretical and experimental emittance measurements for a thin liquid sheet flow

Surface tension forces at the edges of a thin liquid (approximately 200 microns) sheet flow result in a triangularly shaped sheet. Such a geometry is ideal for an external flow radiator. Since the fluid must have very low vapor pressure, Dow Corning 705 silicone oil was used and the emittance of a flowing sheet of oil was determined by two methods. The emittance was derived as a function of the temperature drop between the top of the sheet and the coalescence point of the sheet, the sink temperature, the volumetric flow and the length of the sheet. the emittance for the oil was also calculated using an extinction coefficient determined from spectral transmittance data of the oil. The oil's emittance ranges from .67 to .87 depending on the sheet thickness and sheet temperature. The emittance derived from the temperature drop was slightly less than the emittance calculated from transmittance data. An investigation of temperature fluctuation upstream of the slit plate was also done. The fluctuations were determined to be negligible, not affecting the temperature drop which was due to radiation.

Englehart, Amy N.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Self-Organized Criticality in the Substorm Phenomenon and its Relation to Localized Reconnection in the Plasma Sheet

Recent observations of the magnetotail plasma sheet have shown it to be a dynamic and turbulent region. Research has found strong turbulence in the plasma sheet at approximately 20 Earth's Radius tailward of Earth; the turbulence is observed at all activity levels. The existence of strong turbulence in the plasma sheet in the region associated with substorm onset might be thought difficult to reconcile with the coherence and repeatability of the substorm cycle. We review a variety of evidence that strongly suggests the magnetotail is driven, through magnetic flux transfer, into a state of "self-organized criticality" (SOC). It is an important property of physical systems that evolve into SOC that they self-organize into a unique, global dynamic state. This global state is inevitable, and repeatable. In this state, however, small-spatiotemporal-scale system fluctuations are unpredictable and can be only described statistically. This is the basis, we think, for the global coherence and repeatability of the substorm phenomenon in the turbulent plasma sheet. At, or near, substorm onset the plasma sheet can be described by a global SOC state containing significant small scale turbulence. In several recent studies, "sandpile" models were driven into SOC and then shown to reproduce various measures of substorm activity. We discuss the plasma physical foundation of these sandpile models. The evolution of simple continuum plasma sheet models into SOC-like states of many small reconnection events in the turbulent plasma sheet under the will be demonstrated. We view the substorm phenomenon as an avalanche assumption that the plasma sheet is in a SOC state.

Klimas, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1966

The Properties of Flowing Sheets Formed by Impingement of Liquid Jets on Curved Surfaces

An applied research program was conducted to determine the properties of flat sheets of propellants formed by directing jets of liquid tangentially against concave, cylindrical deflector surfaces. The dimensions and spatial orientation of the resultant sheets were found to depend only on the orifice diameter and deflector geometry for three propellant simulants of widely-varying physical properties, over the range of injection velocities encountered in liquid rocket engines. Correlating equations, suitable for use in injector design, are presented for free-sheet width and spreading angle. Distribution of mass and velocity across the free-flowing sheets is also reported. Conditions were discovered under which true sheets do not form, or at best malformed or pulsating sheets result. An envelope of geometrical constraints for deflector design is tentatively defined in order to avoid these undesirable operating regions. The results of the present cold-flow tests are compared with firing test data for impinging-sheet injectors and combustion performance is related to single sheet behavior.

Riebling, Robert W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Intermittent Turbulence and SOC Dynamics in a 2-D Driven Current-Sheet Model

Borovsky et al. have shown that Earth's magnetotail plasma sheet is strongly turbulent. More recently, Borovsky and Funsten have shown that eddy turbulence dominates and have suggested that the eddy turbulence is driven by fast flows that act as jets in the plasma. Through basic considerations of energy and magnetic flux conservation, these fast flows are thought to be localized to small portions of the total plasma sheet and to be generated by magnetic flux reconnection that is similarly localized. Angelopoulos et al., using single spacecraft Geotail data, have shown that the plasma sheet turbulence exhibits signs of intermittence and Weygand et al., using four spacecraft Cluster data, have confirmed and expanded on this conclusion. Uritsky et al., using Polar UVI image data, have shown that the evolution of bright, nightside, UV auroral emission regions is consistent with many of the properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC). Klimas et al. have suggested that the auroral dynamics is a reflection of the dynamics of the fast flows in the plasma. sheet. Their hypothesis is that the transport of magnetic fludenergy through the magnetotail is enabled by scale-free avalanches of localized reconnection whose SOC dynamics are reflected in the auroral UV emission dynamics. A corollary of this hypothesis is that the strong, intermittent, eddy turbulence of the plasma sheet is closely related to its critical dynamics. The question then arises: Can in situ evidence for the SOC dynamics be found in the properties of the plasma sheet turbulence? A 2-dimensional numerical driven current-sheet model of the central plasma sheet has been developed that incorporates an idealized current-driven instability with a resistive MHD system. It has been shown that the model can evolve into SOC in a physically relevant parameter regime. Initial results from a study of intermittent turbulence in this model and the relationship of this turbulence to the model's known SOC dynamics will be discussed.

Klimas, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Dynamic Harris current sheet thickness from Cluster current density and plasma measurements

We use the first accurate measurements of current densities in the plasma sheet to calculate the half-thickness and position of the current sheet as a function of time. Our technique assumes a Harris current sheet model, which is parameterized by lobe magnetic field B(o), current sheet half-thickness h, and current sheet position z(sub o). Cluster measurements of magnetic field, current density, and plasma pressure are used to infer the three parameters as a function of time. We find that most long timescale (6-12 hours) current sheet crossings observed by Cluster cannot be described by a static Harris current sheet with a single set of parameters B(sub o), h, and z(sub o). Noting the presence of high-frequency fluctuations that appear to be superimposed on lower frequency variations, we average over running 6-min intervals and use the smoothed data to infer the parameters h(t) and z(sub o)(t), constrained by the pressure balance lobe magnetic field B(sub o)(t). Whereas this approach has been used in previous studies, the spatial gnuhen& now provided by the Cluster magnetometers were unavailable or not well constrained in earlier studies. We place the calculated hdf&cknessa in a magnetospheric context by examining the change in thickness with substorm phase for three case study events and 21 events in a superposed epoch analysis. We find that the inferred half-thickness in many cases reflects the nominal changes experienced by the plasma sheet during substorms (i.e., thinning during growth phase, thickening following substorm onset). We conclude with an analysis of the relative contribution of (Delta)B(sub z)/(Delta)X to the cross-tail current density during substorms. We find that (Delta)B(sub z)/(Delta)X can contribute a significant portion of the cross-tail c m n t around substorm onset.

Thompson, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Graphite/Cyanate Ester Face Sheets for Adaptive Optics

It has been proposed that thin face sheets of wide-aperture deformable mirrors in adaptive-optics systems be made from a composite material consisting of cyanate ester filled with graphite. This composite material appears to offer an attractive alternative to low-thermal-expansion glasses that are used in some conventional optics and have been considered for adaptive-optics face sheets. Adaptive-optics face sheets are required to have maximum linear dimensions of the order of meters or even tens of meters for some astronomical applications. If the face sheets were to be made from low-thermal-expansion glasses, then they would also be required to have thicknesses of the order of a millimeter so as to obtain the optimum compromise between the stiffness needed for support and the flexibility needed to enable deformation to controlled shapes by use of actuators. It is difficult to make large glass sheets having thicknesses less than 3 mm, and 3-mm-thick glass sheets are too stiff to be deformable to the shapes typically required for correction of wavefronts of light that has traversed the terrestrial atmosphere. Moreover, the primary commercially produced candidate low-thermal-expansion glass is easily fractured when in the form of thin face sheets. Graphite-filled cyanate ester has relevant properties similar to those of the low-expansion glasses. These properties include a coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of the order of a hundredth of the CTEs of other typical mirror materials. The Young s modulus (which quantifies stiffness in tension and compression) of graphite-filled cyanate ester is also similar to the Young's moduli of low-thermal-expansion glasses. However, the fracture toughness of graphite-filled cyanate ester is much greater than that of the primary candidate low-thermal-expansion glass. Therefore, graphite-filled cyanate ester could be made into nearly unbreakable face sheets, having maximum linear dimensions greater than a meter and thicknesses of the order of a millimeter, that would satisfy the requirements for use in adaptive optics.

Bennett, Harold↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Tailward Moving Current Sheet Normal Magnetic Field Front Followed by an Earthward Moving Dipolarization Front

A case study is presented using measurements from the Cluster spacecraft and ground-based magnetometers that show a substorm onset propagating from the inner to outer plasma sheet. On 3 October 2005, Cluster, traversing an ion-scale current sheet at the near-Earth plasma sheet, detected a sudden enhancement of Bz, which was immediately followed by a series of flux rope structures. Both the local Bz enhancement and flux ropes propagated tailward. Approximately 5 min later, another Bz enhancement, followed by a large density decrease, was observed to rapidly propagate earthward. Between the two Bz enhancements, a significant removal of magnetic flux occurred, possibly resulting from the tailward moving Bz enhancement and flux ropes. In our scenario, this flux removal caused the magnetotail to be globally stretched so that the thinnest sheet formed tailward of Cluster. The thinned current sheet facilitated magnetic reconnection that quickly evolved from plasma sheet to lobe and generated the later earthward moving dipolarization front (DF) followed by a reduction in density and entropy. Ground magnetograms located near the meridian of Cluster's magnetic foot points show two-step bay enhancements. The positive bay associated with the first Bz enhancement indicates that the substorm onset signatures propagated from the inner to the outer plasma sheet, consistent with the Cluster observation. The more intense bay features associated with the later DF are consistent with the earthward motion of the front. The event suggests that current disruption signatures that originated in the near-Earth current sheet propagated tailward, triggering or facilitating midtail reconnection, thereby preconditioning the magnetosphere for a later strong substorm enhancement.

Dipolarization Front↗

NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗

NASA NTRS2022

GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state (frozen or thawed) of the Greenland Ice Sheet is under-constrained due to few direct measurements, yet knowledge of this state is becoming increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow. The first synthesis of this state relied on inferences from widespread airborne and satellite observations and numerical models, for which most of the underlying datasets have since been updated. Further, new and independent constraints on the basal thermal state have been developed from analysis of basal and englacial reflections observed by airborne radar sounding. Here we synthesize constraints on the Greenland Ice Sheet's basal thermal state from boreholes, thermomechanical ice-flow models that participated in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), IceBridge BedMachine Greenland v4 bed topography, Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Multi-Year Greenland Ice Sheet Velocity Mosaic v1 and multiple inferences of a thawed bed from airborne radar sounding. Most constraints can only identify where the bed is likely thawed rather than where it is frozen. This revised synthesis of the Greenland likely Basal Thermal State version 2 (GBaTSv2) indicates that 33 % of the ice sheet's bed is likely thawed, 40 % is likely frozen and the remainder (28 %) is too uncertain to specify. The spatial pattern of GBaTSv2 is broadly similar to the previous synthesis, including a scalloped frozen core and thawed outlet-glacier systems. Although the likely basal thermal state of nearly half (46 %) of the ice sheet changed designation, the assigned state changed from likely frozen to likely thawed (or vice versa) for less than 6 % of the ice sheet. This revised synthesis suggests that more of northern Greenland is likely thawed at its bed and conversely that more of southern Greenland is likely frozen, both of which influence interpretation of the ice sheet's present subglacial hydrology and models of its future evolution. The GBaTSv2 dataset, including both code that performed the analysis and the resulting datasets, is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6759384 (MacGregor, 2022).

Joseph A. MacGregor↗

NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decoupling the effects of texture and composition on magnetic properties of Fe-Si sheet processed by shear deformation

Soft magnetic Fe-Si alloys (electrical steels) possess exceptional functional properties such as high permeability, low coercivity, and low core loss, which generally improve with increasing Si content in the alloy. However, Fe-Si alloys containing > 3.5 wt% Si are also characterized by prohibitively low workability and poor ductility that have prevented their efficient commercial production in sheet form by rolling. This has limited their use for improving efficiency of motors and transformers. In this study, hybrid cutting-extrusion (HCE) is used as a single-step thermomechanical processing method to produce continuous Fe-Si alloy sheet with high Si compositions of 4 wt% to 6.5 wt%. HCE sheet is shown to have a homogeneous annealed grain structure and simple-shear crystallographic textures. By controlling the HCE deformation path, varied crystallographic shear textures are created in the sheet. Quasi-static magnetic properties of the HCE sheet are evaluated to decouple the effects of sheet texture and Si composition on resultant permeability and coercivity properties. The results suggest that HCE, with suitable process scaling, is a viable route for production of high-Si content electrical steel sheet for next-generation motors and transformers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗