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NASA NTRS2022

Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts

Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic after glow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics ofO3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers

Polina Petrov↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Cyber Situational Understanding

Effective cybersecurity operations require the ability to analyze large amounts of information to assess security risks and formulate defensive strategies against adversaries. This has become more complex in recent years as the sprawl and interconnectivity of devices grows through implementation of virtualization, cloud computing, and Internet of Things (IoT). The amount of data and analysis required for effective cybersecurity command and control decisions far exceeds humans’ capacity to perform manually. We characterize the analysis problem as cyber situational understanding. The research presented to improve cyber situational understanding focuses on vulnerability analysis and threat intelligence. Regarding vulnerabilities, entities must analyze and plan work for between thousands and tens of thousands of software vulnerabilities annually. Entities heavily use network firewalls to limit vulnerability exposure. As a result, some of these vulnerabilities permit exposure to adversarial exploitation, whereas others are inaccessible and therefore present negligible risk of exploitation. Distinguishing between high and low risk software vulnerabilities requires a deep understanding of the vulnerability, network firewall protection, and characteristics of the targeted device. This problem is solved by extracting network service features from vulnerability data features using both machine-learning and natural language processing. Then, the network firewall topology is parsed to determine which vulnerabilities are reachable by adversaries. Ultimately, a state-based safety analysis ascertains which vulnerabilities are unsafe. A related vulnerability analysis problem occurs in cybersecurity operations when associating an entity’s hardware and software assets to public vulnerability databases. Assets often reveal hardware and software through installation artifacts and network service identification, and entities store these artifacts in inventory databases. However, software and hardware vendors apply a standard Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) naming convention when publicly reporting vulnerabilities. Associating these two datasets often requires many hours to days of manual inspection. The proposed solution automates the mapping approach of human analysts using fuzzy matching techniques, natural language processing, and, ultimately, machine learning to present a small set of recommendations for mapping the two datasets. The result significantly reduces human analysis time and reduces the occurrence of false positives in vulnerability notifications. Finally, cyber threat intelligence (CTI) requires associating cyber observable artifacts, such as IP addresses, URIs, and file hashes, with cyber threat tactics, techniques, and procedures. Unfortunately, most CTI data is compartmentalized across multiple organizations and cannot be shared due to the legal and reputational risk with cyber threat being associated with the entity. The approach to solving this problem inovlves using a distributed ledger with anonymous token spending and authentication. This allows a consortium of semi-trusted entities to share the workload of curating CTI for a threat sharing community’s cooperative benefit.

Huff, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spinoff 2005

Topics covered include: Lighting the Way for Quicker, Safer Healing; Discovering New Drugs on the Cellular Level; Hydrogen Sensors Boost Hybrids; Today s Models Losing Gas?; 3-D Highway in the Sky; Popping a Hole in High-Speed Pursuits; Monitoring Wake Vortices for More Efficient Airports; From Rockets to Racecars; All-Terrain Intelligent Robot Braves Battlefront to Save Lives; Keeping the Air Clean and Safe--An Anthrax Smoke Detector; Lightning Often Strikes Twice; Technology That's Ready and Able to Inspect Those Cables; Secure Networks for First Responders and Special Forces; Space Suit Spins; Cooking Dinner at Home--From the Office; Nanoscale Materials Make for Large-Scale Applications; NASA s Growing Commitment: The Space Garden; Bringing Thunder and Lightning Indoors; Forty-Year-Old Foam Springs Back With New Benefits; Experiments With Small Animals Rarely Go This Well; NASA, the Fisherman's Friend; Crystal-Clear Communication a Sweet-Sounding Success; Inertial Motion-Tracking Technology for Virtual 3-D; Then Why Do They Call Earth the Blue Planet?; Valiant 'Zero-Valent' Effort Restores Contaminated Grounds; Harnessing the Power of the Sun; Water and Air Measures That Make 'PureSense'; Remote Sensing for Farmers and Flood Watching; Pesticide-Free Device a Fatal Attraction for Mosquitoes Making the Most of Waste Energy Washing Away the Worries About Germs Celestial Software Scratches More Than the Surface A Search Engine That's Aware of Your Needs Fault-Detection Tool Has Companies 'Mining' Own Business; Software to Manage the Unmanageable; Tracking Electromagnetic Energy With SQUIDs; Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment; Satellite and Ground System Solutions at Your Fingertips; Structural Analysis Made 'NESSUSary'; Software of Seismic Proportions Promotes Enjoyable Learning; Making a Reliable Actuator Faster and More Affordable; Cost-Cutting Powdered Lubricant NASA s Radio Frequency Bolt Monitor: A Lifetime of Spinoffs Going End to End to Deliver High-Speed Data; Advanced Joining Technology: Simple, Strong, and Secure; Big Results From a Smaller Gearbox; Low-Pressure Generator Makes Cleanrooms Cleaner; and The Space Laser Business Model.

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NASA NTRS2009

Security Analysis of DTN Architecture and Bundle Protocol Specification for Space-Based Networks

A Delay-Tolerant Network (DTN) Architecture (Request for Comment, RFC-4838) and Bundle Protocol Specification, RFC-5050, have been proposed for space and terrestrial networks. Additional security specifications have been provided via the Bundle Security Specification (currently a work in progress as an Internet Research Task Force internet-draft) and, for link-layer protocols applicable to Space networks, the Licklider Transport Protocol Security Extensions. This document provides a security analysis of the current DTN RFCs and proposed security related internet drafts with a focus on space-based communication networks, which is a rather restricted subset of DTN networks. Note, the original focus and motivation of DTN work was for the Interplanetary Internet . This document does not address general store-and-forward network overlays, just the current work being done by the Internet Research Task Force (IRTF) and the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Space Internetworking Services Area (SIS) - DTN working group under the DTN and Bundle umbrellas. However, much of the analysis is relevant to general store-and-forward overlays.

Ivancic, William D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Centers and Digital Assurance Introduction to Supply Chain and Cybersecurity for Data Centers, Session 1

The first session of the TADA (Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance) Data Centers Cohort Workshop, held on October 30, 2025, introduced foundational concepts of Digital Assurance in the context of data center and grid integration. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the workshop brought together utilities, data center operators, developers, and vendors to address cybersecurity and supply chain vulnerabilities. The session emphasized the growing criticality of data centers within the electric grid and the need for secure, real-time, bidirectional communication. Participants explored the principles of Digital Assurance, including cybersecurity, cyber-informed engineering (CIE), and lifecycle security, and applied a threat-vulnerability-consequence framework to identify and mitigate risks at the data center–grid interface. Discussions covered a range of threats such as spoofed dispatch signals and insider threats, architectural vulnerabilities like SCADA interfaces and insecure protocols, and potential consequences including cascading grid failures. The session also raised strategic questions about business value, vendor assurance, and defining cyber boundaries and responsibilities. This foundational workshop set the stage for deeper technical analysis and the development of actionable frameworks in subsequent sessions. Session 1 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Seamless Transitions from Experimental to Production HPC for Interactive Workflows

The evolving landscape of scientific computing requires seamless transitions from experimental to production HPC environments for interactive workflows. This paper presents a structured transition pathway developed at OLCF that bridges the gap between development testbeds and production systems. We address both technological and policy challenges, introducing frameworks for data streaming architectures, secure service interfaces, and adaptive resource scheduling for time-sensitive workloads and improved HPC interactivity. Our approach transforms traditional batch-oriented HPC into a more dynamic ecosystem capable of supporting modern scientific workflows that require near real-time data analysis, experimental steering, and cross-facility integration.

Etz, Brian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000208554863)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable and Secure Power Outage Data Reporting: A Hexagonal Geospatial Approach

Power outages disrupt critical infrastructure and cause billions of dollars in economic losses annually in the United States. Accurate and granular outage reporting is vital for effective restoration and mitigation. This paper examines the integration of the Hexagonal Hierarchical Geospatial Indexing System (H3) to enhance power outage reporting, leveraging its uniform grid structure, scalable resolutions, and support for privacy-preserving analysis. Using high-resolution LandScan Global population data and K-anonymization techniques, this work achieves a balance between data granularity and privacy. Results show that lower privacy thresholds (e.g., K-anonymity = 2) enable higher resolution, while stricter thresholds (e.g., >15 people per hex) reduce granularity, potentially affecting localized responses. State-and county-level resolution case studies demonstrate H3’s adaptability and the trade-offs between precision and privacy. The proposed H3-based framework offers a scalable and efficient solution for geospatial data integration within the energy sector, such as outage data, aiding utilities and regulators in improving resilience and response efforts, particularly in disaster-prone regions.

Ahmad, Nasir [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000150677368)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating the geometric and electronic structure of a fully sulfided analog of an Anderson polyoxomolybdate cluster

The catalytic activity of transition metal sulfide (TMS) clusters in small molecule activation, redox transformations, and charge transfer has inspired the design of novel TMS-based materials for energy-related catalysis and chemical applications. Polyoxometalates (POMs), known for their structural diversity, can in principle be transformed into TMS clusters; however, fully sulfided analogs are rarely isolated, likely due to the strong tendency of uncapped TMS clusters to agglomerate. Here, we report the geometric and electronic structure of a capping ligand-free fully sulfided analog of heptamolybdate Anderson POM [Mo VI 7 O 24 ] 6− , synthesized through the sulfidation of a nanoconfined POM secured within a porous Zr-metal organic framework (NU-1000). A combined computational and experimental analysis indicates that the sulfided counterpart of the Anderson POM is geometrically and electronically more sophisticated than the parent POM. Comparison of experimental pair distribution function (PDF) data with computational simulations confirms that, unlike the oxygen-only [Mo VI 7 O 24 ] 6− cluster, the [Mo IV 7 (μ 3 -S) 6 (μ 2 -SH) 6 (S 2 ) 6 ] 2− polythiometalate (PTM) exhibits diverse sulfur anions (S 2− , HS − , S 2 2− ). DFT calculations indicate that H 2 S acts as a reducing agent, and together with terminal disulfide (S 2 2− ) ligands in the PTM structure, facilitates the complete reduction of all seven Mo VI centers in the parent POM to Mo IV . These findings are supported by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), which confirms exclusive Mo IV , and elemental analysis, which shows quantitative sulfur incorporation. Difference envelope density (DED) mapping further reveals that the PTM clusters are spatially confined within the MOF pores, preventing agglomeration and preserving molecular integrity.

Rabbani, S. M. Gulam [The Ohio State University, C↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spinoff 2012

Topics covered include: Water Treatment Technologies Inspire Healthy Beverages; Dietary Formulas Fortify Antioxidant Supplements; Rovers Pave the Way for Hospital Robots; Dry Electrodes Facilitate Remote Health Monitoring; Telescope Innovations Improve Speed, Accuracy of Eye Surgery; Superconductors Enable Lower Cost MRI Systems; Anti-Icing Formulas Prevent Train Delays; Shuttle Repair Tools Automate Vehicle Maintenance; Pressure-Sensitive Paints Advance Rotorcraft Design Testing; Speech Recognition Interfaces Improve Flight Safety; Polymers Advance Heat Management Materials for Vehicles; Wireless Sensors Pinpoint Rotorcraft Troubles; Ultrasonic Detectors Safely Identify Dangerous, Costly Leaks; Detectors Ensure Function, Safety of Aircraft Wiring; Emergency Systems Save Tens of Thousands of Lives; Oxygen Assessments Ensure Safer Medical Devices; Collaborative Platforms Aid Emergency Decision Making; Space-Inspired Trailers Encourage Exploration on Earth; Ultra-Thin Coatings Beautify Art; Spacesuit Materials Add Comfort to Undergarments; Gigapixel Images Connect Sports Teams with Fans; Satellite Maps Deliver More Realistic Gaming; Elemental Scanning Devices Authenticate Works of Art; Microradiometers Reveal Ocean Health, Climate Change; Sensors Enable Plants to Text Message Farmers; Efficient Cells Cut the Cost of Solar Power; Shuttle Topography Data Inform Solar Power Analysis; Photocatalytic Solutions Create Self-Cleaning Surfaces; Concentrators Enhance Solar Power Systems; Innovative Coatings Potentially Lower Facility Maintenance Costs; Simulation Packages Expand Aircraft Design Options; Web Solutions Inspire Cloud Computing Software; Behavior Prediction Tools Strengthen Nanoelectronics; Power Converters Secure Electronics in Harsh Environments; Diagnostics Tools Identify Faults Prior to Failure; Archiving Innovations Preserve Essential Historical Records; Meter Designs Reduce Operation Costs for Industry; Commercial Platforms Allow Affordable Space Research; Fiber Optics Deliver Real-Time Structural Monitoring; Camera Systems Rapidly Scan Large Structures; Terahertz Lasers Reveal Information for 3D Images; Thin Films Protect Electronics from Heat and Radiation; Interferometers Sharpen Measurements for Better Telescopes; and Vision Systems Illuminate Industrial Processes.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

HPC and Cloud Convergence Beyond Technical Boundaries: Strategies for Economic Sustainability, Standardization, and Data Accessibility

At the IEEE/ACM International Conference for High-Performance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis (SC23), held in Denver, experts discussed the convergence of high-performance computing and cloud computing. Experts explored how this integration could address current scientific computing limitations, enhance computational capabilities, and foster global collaboration while focusing on economic, security, technical, and community challenges and opportunities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2003

User and Task Analysis of the Flight Surgeon Console at the Mission Control Center of the NASA Johnson Space Center

Astronauts in a space station are to some extent like patients in an intensive care unit (ICU). Medical support of a mission crew will require acquisition, transmission, distribution, integration, and archiving of significant amounts of data. These data are acquired by disparate systems and will require timely, reliable, and secure distribution to different communities for the execution of various tasks of space missions. The goal of the Comprehensive Medical Information System (CMIS) Project at Johnson Space Center Flight Medical Clinic is to integrate data from all Medical Operations sources, including the reference information sources and the electronic medical records of astronauts. A first step toward the full CMIS implementation is to integrate and organize the reference information sources and the electronic medical record with the Flight Surgeons console. In order to investigate this integration, we need to understand the usability problems of the Flight Surgeon's console in particular and medical information systems in general. One way to achieve this understanding is through the use of user and task analyses whose general purpose is to ensure that only the necessary and sufficient task features that match users capacities will be included in system implementations. The goal of this summer project was to conduct user and task analyses employing cognitive engineering techniques to analyze the task of the Flight Surgeons and Biomedical Engineers (BMEs) while they worked on Console. The techniques employed were user interviews, observations and a questionnaire to collect data for which a hierarchical task analysis and an information resource assessment were performed. They are described in more detail below. Finally, based on our analyses, we make recommendations for improvements to the support structure.

Johnson, Kathy A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Space Station Freedom environmental database system (FEDS) for MSFC testing

The Water Recovery Test (WRT) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is the first demonstration of integrated water recovery systems for potable and hygiene water reuse as envisioned for Space Station Freedom (SSF). In order to satisfy the safety and health requirements placed on the SSF program and facilitate test data assessment, an extensive laboratory analysis database was established to provide a central archive and data retrieval function. The database is required to store analysis results for physical, chemical, and microbial parameters measured from water, air and surface samples collected at various locations throughout the test facility. The Oracle Relational Database Management System (RDBMS) was utilized to implement a secured on-line information system with the ECLSS WRT program as the foundation for this system. The database is supported on a VAX/VMS 8810 series mainframe and is accessible from the Marshall Information Network System (MINS). This paper summarizes the database requirements, system design, interfaces, and future enhancements.

Story, Gail S.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spectrophotometric Modeling and Mapping of (101955) Bennu

Using hyperspectral data collected by OVIRS, the visible and infrared spectrometer onboard the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer) spacecraft, we modeled the global average spectrophotometric properties of the carbonaceous asteroid (101955) Bennu and mapped their variations. We restricted our analysis to 0.4–2.5 µm to avoid the wavelengths where thermal emission from the asteroid dominates (>2.5 µm). Bennu has global photometric properties typical of dark asteroids; we found a geometric albedo of 0.046 ± 0.007 and a linear phase slope of 0.024 ± 0.007 mag deg–1 at 0.55 µm. The average spectral slope of Bennu’s normal albedo is –0.0030 µm–1, and the phase reddening parameter is 4.3´10–4 µm–1 deg–1, both over the spectral range of 0.5–2.0 µm. We produced normal albedo maps and phase slope maps at all spectral channels, from which we derived spectral slope and phase reddening maps. Correlation analysis suggests that phase slope variations on Bennu are likely due to photometric roughness variation. A correlation between photometric roughness and thermal roughness is evident, implying that the roughness of Bennu is self-similar on scales from tens of microns to meters. Our analysis reveals latitudinal trends in the spectral color slope and phase reddening on Bennu. The equatorial region appears to be redder than the global average, and the spectral slope decreases towards higher latitudes. Phase reddening on Bennu is relatively weak in the equatorial region and shows an asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres. We attributed the latitudinal trend to the geophysical conditions on Bennu that result in a global pattern of mass flow towards the equator.

Jian-Yang Li (李荐扬)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generator Frequency Response Droop Monitoring Tool

Monitoring and analyzing the frequency response performance of power generation units is essential for maintaining reliable and secure power system operation. To address this need, an automation tool has been developed to provide a pipeline for processing historical power plant generation data, including large-scale SCADA archives. The tool performs end-to-end processing, including event detection, frequency response (FR) analysis in accordance with NERC standards, and estimation of speed governor droop characteristics. The tool is designed with a modular architecture, allowing individual components of the workflow to be extended, customized, or deployed independently. In addition, the tool provides an API that enables seamless integration with other production systems and operational analytics platforms.

Etingov, PavelV [Pacific Northwest National Labora↗

NASA NTRS2018

The OSIRIS-REx Spacecraft and the Touch-and-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM)

The Origins, Spectral-Interpretation, Resource-Identification, Security and Regolith- Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft supports all aspects of the mission science objectives, from extensive remote sensing at the asteroid Bennu, to sample collection and return to Earth. In general, the success of planetary missions requires the collection, return, and analysis of data, which in turn depends on the successful operation of instruments and the host spacecraft. In the case of OSIRIS-REx, a sample-return mission, the spacecraft must also support the acquisition, safe stowage, and return of the sample. The target asteroid is Bennu, a B-class near-Earth asteroid roughly 500 m diameter. The Lockheed Martin-designed and developed OSIRIS-REx spacecraft draws significant heritage from previous missions and features the Touch-and-Go-Sample-Acquisition-Mechanism, or TAGSAM, to collect sample from the surface of Bennu. Lockheed Martin developed TAGSAM as a novel, simple way to collect samples on planetary bodies. During short contact with the asteroid surface, TAGSAM releases curation-grade nitrogen gas, mobilizing the surface regolith into a collection chamber. The contact surface of TAGSAM includes "contact pads", which are present to collect surface grains that have been subject to space weathering. Extensive 1-g laboratory testing, "reduced-gravity" testing (via parabolic flights on an airplane), and analysis demonstrate that TAGSAM will collect asteroid material in nominal conditions, and a variety of off-nominal conditions, such as the presence of large obstacles under the TAGSAM sampling head, or failure in the sampling gas firing. TAGSAM, and the spacecraft support of the instruments, are central to the success of the mission.

Spacecraft↗

DOE OSTI2025

ELG spectroscopic systematics analysis of the DESI Data Release 1

Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) uses more than 2.4 million Emission Line Galaxies (ELGs) for 3D large-scale structure (LSS) analyses in its Data Release 1 (DR1). Such large statistics enable thorough research on systematic uncertainties. In this study, we focus on spectroscopic systematics of ELGs. The redshift success rate (f goodz ) is the relative fraction of secure redshifts among all measurements. It depends on observing conditions, thus introduces non-cosmological variations to the LSS. We, therefore, develop the redshift failure weight (w zfail ) and a per-fibre correction (η zfail ) to mitigate these dependences. They have minor influences on the galaxy clustering. For ELGs with a secure redshift, there are two subtypes of systematics: 1) catastrophics (large) that only occur in a few samples; 2) redshift uncertainty (small) that exists for all samples. The catastrophics represent 0.26% of the total DR1 ELGs, composed of the confusion between [O ii] and sky residuals, double objects, total catastrophics and others. We simulate the realistic 0.26% catastrophics of DR1 ELGs, the hypothetical 1% catastrophics, and the truncation of the contaminated 1.31 < z < 1.33 in the A BACUS S UMMIT ELG mocks. Their P ℓ show non-negligible bias from the uncontaminated mocks. But their influences on the redshift space distortions (RSD) parameters are smaller than 0.2σ. The redshift uncertainty of DR1 ELGs is 8.5km s -1 with a Lorentzian profile. The code for implementing the catastrophics and redshift uncertainty on mocks can be found in https://github.com/Jiaxi-Yu/modelling_spectro_sys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗